2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[Mark]

New thread, just in time for the local elections.

Please keep any discussion on election results in this main thread...

Westminster voting intention

LAB 44& (NC)
CON 26% (-1)
LDM 10% (+1)
REF 10% (NC)
GRN 3% (-1)

@sevanta, 26th April

[steve]

First

My task here is done!

[thylacine]

May 2, 2024 10:26:46 GMT steve said:

First

My task here is done!

We shall miss you ( that is some of us will )

[crossbat11]

Fourth. Probably mirroring Villa's finish in the PL.

Unless of course some bloody Spurs fan has nipped in and beaten me to it while I've been writing this post!

[neilj]

Next time a tory says they support our veterans, remind them of this
It does highlight the ludicrous nature of which IDs are acceptable, senior rail card yes, young person's no

[domjg]

May 2, 2024 10:47:29 GMT neilj said:

Nest time a tory says they support our veterans, remind them of this
It does highlight the ludicrous nature of which IDs are acceptable, senior rail card yes, young person's no

Whatever spin is put on it voter ID was conceived as nothing less than an attempt to suppress the non tory vote and encourage the tory vote. Simple as that. 

[crossbat11]

Well, I've performed my national duty and walked the round trip of two and a half miles to Sedgeberrow Village Hall to join the madding crowd in casting our votes in the West Mercia Crime and Police Commissioner election. The local ward is not being contested in the Wychavon council elections this year.

In terms of the contest itself, it gives us local residents a rare sight of a Labour candidate on the ballot paper. The party doesn't usually contest what is a rock solid Tory ward in the council elections. The Lib Dems are the only other party in half serious contention.

As for the faintly ludicrous Police Commissioner election, I do have a bit of a personal interest in it this time because I got through a fair bit of shoe leather over the last few days in Redditch, delivering leaflets for the Labour candidate, Richard Overton. The post is currently held by a Tory.

As pjw1961 speculated, I think the turnout for the Police Commissioner elections, especially in areas where there are no council wards being contested, will be astonishingly low Anecdotally, that was what I saw at the polling station this morning. I was alone, and looking at the check off electoral roll sheets that the polling station officers had in front of them, by 10.45am, it appeared that hardly anyone had voted.

10-15% turnout I anticipate around here, although this might be boosted in towns where council elections are taking place simultaneously.

[neilj]

May 2, 2024 11:05:11 GMT crossbat11 said:

Well, I've performed my national duty and walked the round trip of two and a half miles to Sedgeberrow Village Hall to join the madding crowd in casting our votes in the West Mercia Crime and Police Commissioner election

It was the only thing we had a vote for this time, did my postal vote last week, this despite getting no information through the door 😀
The current PCC John Campion doesn't seem popular, but with large numbers of previous tory voters he may be difficult to dislodge. But it would not take many to do it on a low turn out

[alec]

A crop of interesting animal disease stories floating around this morning.

The BBC and other outlets are running with this report, about the impacts of deforestation on a group of African chimps - www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68875094
It's another desperately sad story of how human overcrowding is destroying so much of the planet, but also contains a big flashing warning for the humans doing this damage. The chimps, now facing food shortages because tobacco farms have destroyed their normal feeding grounds, have resorted to eating bat droppings. Tests on the dropping revealed 27 viruses new to science, including one virus that appears very similar to Sars-Cov-2. We have no idea what these viruses could do, if they were ever to jump from bats to chimps to humans, but this gives a very clear picture as to why we are seeing zoonotic viral spillover events with far more frequently in recent decades. The failure to tackle over population and over consumption is presenting a direct threat to humanity.

Interestingly, this goes the other way too. This story involves chimps again, but with the disease transmission the other way round - www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/may/02/great-ape-tourism-chimpanzee-common-cold-reverse-zoonoses-uganda-aoe

This is a large group of primates suffering long term harm because of 'harmless' human cold viruses. Most notably, the cold viruses have been the leading cause of death in the chimps for over 30 years, which rather puts into perspective the idea that all we need to do with a pandemic is allow it to roll around the world a few times and we'll all magically get sufficient immunity. Evolution works on timescales of decades and centuries, and that is the timescale that human adaptation to new viruses could work on also.

Meanwhile, at Melbourne Zoo, the meerkat keepers are requesting that visitors mask up to protect the animals from covid, and everyone is complying. Simples!

[nickpoole]

I went into vote. A woman and two men behind a table.

I said, "who wants to see my photo ID"

Woman says it's her

I hand her my driving licence she starts to look me up. then she says:

"can you confirm the first line of your address?"

So i said, "it's on that" pointing to licence in her hand.

She says, no you have to confirm it.

-Who says so?

-The Law.

-what law?

-Electoral Law.

-The law asks for photo id with my address on. I might not want to confirm my address out loud so everyone can hear it.

-Well you have to.

I got bored with it then and told her my address. But seems bona fide madness to me.

[mandolinist]

I have just got back from my polling station, not a day for the faint hearted in Bristol after a night of heavy rain and thunder and lightning, it is now really dark, damp, chilly and depressing. We were the only two people in the polling station, but then despite the council being up for election the only leaflets we have received have been from the Cons. I had to check who was who in the PCC election on line before I got there.

More interestingly, my out of date passport was accepted as valid ID. My other half, being older than me and a driver whose passport is still current had a plethora of choices of ID. It really is a load of old cobblers.

Despite the keeness of the Tory candidates to bombard us with leaflets they are clearly very worried about losing this ward, we have had yet another leaflet from them as I was typeing this. Maybe their leader in the City is about to be unceremoniously booted out.

[wb61]

May 2, 2024 11:53:56 GMT nickpoole said:

I went into vote. A woman and two men behind a table.

I said, "who wants to see my photo ID"

Woman says it's her

I hand her my driving licence she starts to look me up. then she says:

"can you confirm the first line of your address?"

So i said, "it's on that" pointing to licence in her hand.

She says, no you have to confirm it.

-Who says so?

-The Law.

-what law?

-Electoral Law.

-The law asks for photo id with my address on. I might not want to confirm my address out loud so everyone can hear it.

-Well you have to.

I got bored with it then and told her my address. But seems bona fide madness to me.

Not wrong apparently although I was unaware before today

see:
www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1382/schedule/5/made

[steve]

"Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, his wife, Rachel, and their baby daughter Hannah leaving a polling station after voting"



I wonder  who Hannah voted for?

[steve]

"More interestingly, my out of date passport was accepted as valid ID

It's still you .☺

[leftieliberal]

May 2, 2024 12:13:38 GMT steve said:

"Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, his wife, Rachel, and their baby daughter Hannah leaving a polling station after voting"
View Attachment


I wonder  who Hannah voted for?

Did she have the proper ID?

[steve]

She used her friends.

[bardin1]

Forbes to sit out the leadership contest

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-68939733?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=66338a262f3a131cc506acd9%26Kate%20Forbes%20set%20to%20sit%20out%20leadership%20contest%262024-05-02T12%3A42%3A15.505Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:9ac78a01-c055-4c6f-b45e-e78afd000cc8&pinned_post_asset_id=66338a262f3a131cc506acd9&pinned_post_type=share

[somerjohn]

Mercian: "The 'fierce debate' has passed me by I'm afraid. If the Poles are doing well good luck to them."

Rather proving my point that "enduring brexiteers won't notice or care, I suppose. I'm all right, Jack."

For people who exist within a UK bubble, especially if comfortably retired, the country's relative decline, even if extreme, might well pass them by.

But if being surpassed in wealth by Poland is not a concerning indicator, then what would it take to trigger alarm amongst brexiteers? Becoming poorer than Albania, maybe? Probably not even that would be too high a price to pay for 'taking back ciontrol'. Especially if it finally deters the boat people...

[somerjohn]

duplicate deleted

[leftieliberal]

YouGov latest polling on London Mayor and Assembly election (24-30th April)
Mayor: Khan 47%, Hall 25%, Garbett 7%, Blackie 6%, Cox 6%, Count Binface 3%
Regrettably it looks like Count Binface will not come ahead of the Reform UK candidate.
Constituency: Lab 46%, Con 21%, Green 12%, LD 11%, RefUK 8%, others 2%.
List: Lab 43%, Con 21%, Green 12%, LD 11%, RefUK 8%, others 4%
Strangely Susan Hall is actually polling better than the Tories generically although the Party Managers have been doing their best to keep her away from the media.

Westminster (same area as above)
Lab 54%, Con 17%, LD 9%, Green 9%, RefUK 9%, others 2%.
Pretty consistent with their previous London polling.
 

[jib]

May 2, 2024 13:02:33 GMT somerjohn said:

Mercian: "The 'fierce debate' has passed me by I'm afraid. If the Poles are doing well good luck to them."

Rather proving my point that "enduring brexiteers won't notice or care, I suppose. I'm all right, Jack."

For people who exist within a UK bubble, especially if comfortably retired, the country's relative decline, even if extreme, might well pass them by.

But if being surpassed in wealth by Poland is not a concerning indicator, then what would it take to trigger alarm amongst brexiteers? Becoming poorer than Albania, maybe? Probably not even that would be too high a price to pay for 'taking back ciontrol'. Especially if it finally deters the boat people...

What exactly are you claiming here? That Poland is more wealthy than the UK? That average wages are higher?

Or is that just a prediction that the UK is in an inevitable decline?

[Danny]

May 2, 2024 11:53:55 GMT alec said:

This is a large group of primates suffering long term harm because of 'harmless' human cold viruses.

Perhaps they were chimp viruses before they became human ones? Humans and chimp lineages have evolved separately for millions of year, though they are the closest related to us still surviving. We probably bumped off most of the others a while back. Homo sapiens are only about 200,000 years old, whereas that common ancestor with chimps was 7 million years ago. wikipedia suggests maybe 20 different named species of hominins have come and gone since the split with chimpanzees. Although someone points out that we have a much better record of past hominins than the intervening species leading to chimp after that separation. We are however still 98.5% genetically identical. Doubtful the difference is very meaningful to a virus.

[somerjohn]

JiB: What exactly are you claiming here?

It refers to a post of mine on the previous thread. Donald Tusk had commented on an IMF forecast that in 5 years UK per capita GDP will have fallen behind Poland's, ergo it pays to be in the EU.

Mercian had done one of his, 'so what?' responses.

[neilj]

SNP leaders since 1990 -

Salmond
Swinney
Salmond
Sturgeon
Yousaf

Swinney looks a shoe in for next leader

[Danny]

May 2, 2024 11:53:56 GMT nickpoole said:

-The law asks for photo id with my address on.

Apparently not, because passports do not have your address on and are acceptable ID. The issue about being able to state your own address is probably a check in place before. It a bit difficult to claim your vote if you dont tell them where you live so they can check you on the register.

[steve]

In New York case.

"Judge Juan Merchan is not buying Todd Blanche’s ‘Donald Trump is a victim to media’ narrative.

“Whats happening in this trial is no surprise to anyone,” Merchan said.

“The former president of the United States is on trial. He’s the leading candidate for the Republican party right now. Everybody came into this knew that this would happen – we all expected it. There’s no surprises here, so I don’t know how it reflects on Mr Trump if 10 outlets are talking about Mr Pecker."

“Everybody can say whatever they want, except President Trump,” Blanche said.”

“They’re not defendants in this case” Mechan said. "

Which in a nutshell is case proved the defendant is the one on trial it's his criminal contempt for the court that's the issue.

[James E]

leftieliberal

"...Mayor: Khan 47%, Hall 25%, Garbett 7%, Blackie 6%, Cox 6%, Count Binface 3%
Regrettably it looks like Count Binface will not come ahead of the Reform UK candidate."

Binface does very well with the 18-24 cohort (of 110), coming in joint 3rd place with the Greens and ahead of both of the Tory and RefUK candidates.

Khan (Lab) 50%
Blackie (LD) 14%
Count Binface 11%
Garbett (Green) 11%
Hall (Con)  8%
Cox (Ref) 7%
Others 0%

And from these figures, he looks very likely to finish ahead seven of the thirteen candidates.

[crossbat11]

In relation to nick poole's experiences at the polling station this morning, I took some time out to read the lengthy list of acceptable forms of personal ID on my polling card this morning and was astounded by it. The list was heavily skewed to over 60s voters who seemed to have inexhaustible acceptable forms of ID to satisfy polling station officials, whereas it appeared that younger voters had far fewer options.

Who approved this list? The Electoral Commission? I think this is one of those very British scandals that often go below the radar, with our craven and largely client media failing to scrutinise the changes or challenge the politicians implementing them.

It seems very clear that this is voter suppression by stealth. The imposition of wholly unnecessary rules, dealing with a problem that never existed, that have the effect of making it much more difficult, and therefore less likely, for younger people to vote.

Just when we need to reinvigorate our moribund democracy we have instead a cynical governing party attempting to do the very opposite in order to make it more difficult for them to be voted out.

[jimjam]

CB, the Tories did not factor in that many young people have a provisional drivers license even if not learning as ID for pubs etc.

So not as effective as they expected at suppressing the voters they wished to but still undemocratic.

[leftieliberal]

May 2, 2024 14:21:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

In relation to nick poole's experiences at the polling station this morning, I took some time out to read the lengthy list of acceptable forms of personal ID on my polling card this morning and was astounded by it. The list was heavily skewed to over 60s voters who seemed to have inexhaustible acceptable forms of ID to satisfy polling station officials, whereas it appeared that younger voters had far fewer options.

Who approved this list? The Electoral Commission? I think this is one of those very British scandals that often go below the radar, with our craven and largely client media failing to scrutinise the changes or challenge the politicians implementing them.

It seems very clear that this is voter suppression by stealth. The imposition of wholly unnecessary rules, dealing with a problem that never existed, that have the effect of making it much more difficult, and therefore less likely, for younger people to vote.

Just when we need to reinvigorate our moribund democracy we have instead a cynical governing party attempting to do the very opposite in order to make it more difficult for them to be voted out.

I don't think the Electoral Commission had any choice in the matter; I think you will find that the Act of Parliament that set this up gave the Minister the power to decide what forms of ID were approved. So yes, it's a stitch-up but there's no-one but the Tories to blame for it. Secondary legislation, of which this is just one of many examples, has a long history of abuse. It would be better (even if only a little better) if all secondary legislation had to be approved by a vote in the Commons before coming into force.