2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[eor]

Yeah sorry joeboy, I get you now - you meant it'd be the first time Belfast would fail to elect any Unionist MPs at all, not the much odder thing I read it as!

[Deleted]

Been out tonight, so quickly catching up. I note some stellar predictions for stonking LAB majorities. I'm still in Ming vase/polished floor mode, though, and with some likely CON recovery during the campaign, I just can't see anything quite so dramatic, although I would be delighted to proved wrong. I therefore plugged the following into Electoral Calculus:

LAB 37% (well below current polling average)
CON 32% (well above current polling average)
LDEM 12%
RFM 8%
GRN 6%

(Plus some tactical voting)

Result: Even on such conservative (very small 'c') figures, a LAB majority of 28 is postulated, although even this would still see LAB gaining both Bournemouth seats and Weston-super-Mare for the first time ever.

Conclusion: If the EC model is anything like up to scratch, a LAB win with at least a comfortable working majority seems pretty damn likely.

[Deleted]

Just wow.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13449817/Tory-backlash-early-poll-nervous-MPs-plot-election-OUST-PM-1922-Committees-Sir-Graham-Brady.html

[guymonde]

May 22, 2024 22:36:21 GMT peterbell said:

It is noticeable that virtually every commentator on TV has made negative comments re the optics of Sunak's announcement in the pouring rain. Many have contrasted it with the well set up statement from Starmer. Comments have included why did he not use and umbrella or better still make the anouncement inside Downing Street.

The word chaos has been used by several in the media and, contrary to one or two who have said that the optics will be forgoten over the 6 weeks, I suspect that the chaos of today will be related to the chaos of the past 14 years. This will be very relevant leading up to the election.

Reminded of May's speech to conference, where she lost her voice  and the letters fell off the board behind her. The epitome of incompetence, thought i thought May was rather unlucky.

[steve]

From.across the pond a true profile in courage.

"Nikki Haley, who emerged as Donald Trump’s most enduring rival and trenchant critic during the Republican primary elections, has said she intends to vote for the former US president in November."

So what first attracted you to pathological liar, fraudster, rapist, megalomaniac, lunatic, coup organiser, soon to be criminally convicted incontinent, odiferourous disgraced former president Nikki?

[neilj]

Okay

Lab 403
Con 154
LD 45
SNP 25
PC 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
N.I. 18 (don't know enough to break it down further)

[steve]

Tories don't want the public invading on their private grief ,extraordinary film of a sky reporter on air being forcibly ejected from a Tory gathering.

youtu.be/bLmNpUuEPhs?si=Vol-cpelI247C-Y5

[neilj]

Beth Rigby
"Blimey, told a serving minister asked at '22 if they could submit a letter of no confidence in PM. Another source tells me there's a lot going round on some WhatsApp groups about how this might be route to stop GE. "They are clueless," says source. "[Tories] are in deep trouble"

The last line is one of the great understatement of our time

[steve]

This is our family friend Sammy, Sammy will be standing as the liberal democrat candidate in Hemel for parliament on July 4th.
Sammy was one of the many successful liberal democrat candidates at the council elections , when we took power for the first time ever.

The conservative candidate as MP, the incumbent is retiring, also stood at the council elections.

He lost☺

[neilj]

Labour lead at 25 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Time, Swingback has started 😀

CON 21 (+1)
LAB 46 (-1)
LIB DEM 9 (=)
REF UK 12 (+1)
GRN 7 (-1)
SNP 3 (=)
Fieldwork 21 - 22 May

[steve]

Soon we will all have seen the back of Sunak.

[neilj]

Farage to decide whether to stand as a candidate today, will he bottle it?

[steve]

With the imminent arrival of unwanted visitors at the door the Met has helpfully sounded a warning 🎺

[steve]

"Farage to decide whether to stand as a candidate today, will he bottle it?"

8th time lucky😂

[wb61]

May 23, 2024 5:46:50 GMT steve said:

With the imminent arrival of unwanted visitors at the door the Met has helpfully sounded a warning 🎺

View Attachment

What crime is a bugler going to commit at your doorstep.

[Danny]

May 22, 2024 22:36:45 GMT mercian said:

Apparently we had the highest economic growth in the G7 last quarter, but most voters won't even be aware of that. Also don't forget that Brexit is very low down on the list of important issues when there is a poll about it. Even if it was an important issue to the electorate I think the last figures I saw were around 35% who still think it was a good idea. Enough to win an election.

Refuk calling a special meeting for 11 today. This might be important depending what impact Farage could have on votes. He is one of the loose ends we have discussed regarding whether refuk will fight for con votes or withdraw. If they fight, then presumably one line will be that con have incompetently mismanaged brexit and hope to draw those still committed to them. For those people who only voted con to get brexit, well they got it and there is no further reason to support con. For those who now regret it, whether because they have been hit by consequences or it failed to deliver eg an end to immigration, again no reason to support con.

In my view the entire strategy first of euroscepticism, the promised referendum before any future changes to the EU, the referendum on membership, then Johnson's election promising to deliver, are the reason con achieved any sort of majority since 2010. Without this they could have lost and lost again to labour. Obviously labour were falling in popularity for other reasons and without that con could not have won either, but Brexit supplied enough votes to get them over the line in all the elections from 2010 on. If this had never existed as an issue, it is arguable con simply do not have enough natural support to win a national election any more. Which would make sense of recent polling: it isnt merely ennui with an incumbent, its ennui dating back all the way to Thatcher with her poisonous legacy of privatisations, ending state housebuilding, the end of government investment on behalf of the state to improve national competitiveness. (and we might add the start of PFI).

Labour failed to fight to remain in the EU, presumably because historically con were the pro EU party and lab the anti EU party. 35% might be enough to win an election, but 65% who dont think brexit was a good idea is a lot better. I believe lab lost in 2017 because the country was still narrowly pro brexit and the result of the election reflected that. But in 2019 labour had pretty much given up trying to change or halt brexit and the remain side was severely split, leading to the leave team united under con winning. Brexit decided all these elections, or the refusal of labour to wholeheartedly support remain/rejoin did.

To become actively popular a party needs to have a charismatic leader who doesn't frighten the horses too much and makes soothing reassurances about the two or three issues at the top of voters' priorities. End of. Of course when in power and all the soothing noises are shown to be vacuous popularity will wane. 

Starmer is ahead of Sunak on primeministeriality. But I agree, on the whole they fail to shine. They are either afraid to have a cause, or in truth in many respects agree with con as has been demonstrated time after time by their voting in parliament. Their strategy seems to be vote for us, we will give you the same core right policies but with some tweaks and delivered so they work. But I also think Starmer yesterday in his speech indicated labour have been trying to keep their powder dry so they will have some stuff to annouce to define differences with con. We shall see.  I do believe lab in power would be a much more caring government, both for individuals and for the national interest.  The Blair government was the most successful of my lifetime and arguably a golden age.

[steve]

What crime is a bugler going to commit at your doorstep.

They could murder a tune

[Danny]

Parliament to pass some bills in the next few days and accomplish what would ordinarily take weeks or months in days. Makes you wonder just what they normally do for their money.

[Danny]

May 23, 2024 5:40:01 GMT neilj said:

Labour lead at 25 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Time, Swingback has started 😀

CON 21 (+1)
LAB 46 (-1)
LIB DEM 9 (=)
REF UK 12 (+1)
GRN 7 (-1)
SNP 3 (=)
Fieldwork 21 - 22 May

I know you are making a joke, but if you consider this as swingback by those who now think brexit was wrong, then it does indeed make perfect sense as swingback towards EU membership.

[steve]

In just a weeks time those happy chappies that you know and love on the Tory benches cease to be MP's , most won't be returning.

[Danny]

May 23, 2024 5:46:50 GMT steve said:

With the imminent arrival of unwanted visitors at the door the Met has helpfully sounded a warning 🎺

View Attachment

Should you actually discover a burglar, unfortunately police have been told not to arrest minor criminals because there is no room in prisons, so probably they would just give him a warning. Thats what happens when a government doesnt believe in state services.

[steve]

[athena]

It'll be interesting to see what the Green Party does in Sheffield Central. Way back in 2022 they selected Alison Teal as their candidate - she's probably the highest profile local Green, having played a prominent role in the Street Trees campaign and she also fought the seat in 2019 - only to suspend her a couple of months later for expressing mildly gender-critical views (another Shef Green councillor complained, apparently). She told the local press back in Feb that she thought the party was deliberately dragging out the disciplinary process so they could replace her with an 'emergency selection' when the next election was called...

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 23, 2024 1:34:08 GMT @isa said:

Just wow.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13449817/Tory-backlash-early-poll-nervous-MPs-plot-election-OUST-PM-1922-Committees-Sir-Graham-Brady.html

They seem to think that going back on something after a few weeks is of no consequence, despite that it can be electoral suicide as we saw with Truss. BJ saved them in 2019 and they seem to think they can get away with anything after that 

[Danny]

Police in Northern Ireland fined for failing to safeguard personnel information (actually, I think they accidentally emailed the details to someone?). They say they cannot afford to pay the fine.

So will the data protection agency send in the bailiffs and seize their computers and panda cars, or will they be let off with a caution?

[steve]

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 23, 2024 7:13:28 GMT steve said:

View Attachment

I can see @mark is going to need to free up some attachment space for the election!

[steve]

You leave them out unsupervised for a minute and they call a general election.

[crossbat11]

May 23, 2024 5:52:09 GMT wb61 said:

May 23, 2024 5:46:50 GMT steve said:

With the imminent arrival of unwanted visitors at the door the Met has helpfully sounded a warning 🎺

View Attachment

What crime is a bugler going to commit at your doorstep.

The last post maybe?

That's usually abot 4.30pm around these parts