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Post by James E on May 25, 2024 10:22:52 GMT
Interesting from YouGov, younger people are becoming more certain to vote. Left of centre parties will be happy with this % saying they are "10/10 - absolutely certain to vote" in our first poll since the election was announced (23-24 May) All Britons: 58% (+5 from 21-22 May) 18-24yr olds: 52% (+17) 25-49yr olds: 54% (+3) 50-64yr olds: 62% (+5) 65+yr olds: 66% (+7) Thanks for this, Neil. The figures for those 'certain to vote' tend to rise in a General election campaign. In 2019, the same figure rose from an average 60% in the 6 YouGov polls before the GE was announced, to 62% in the early to mid campaign, and around 65% in the final week. So while this rise is welcome, the figure of 58% 'certain to vote' is still 4 points below the comparable figures from 2019, taken as an average of 6 early-campaign YouGovs. The details are interesting - though do bear in mind that these are already reflected in the Voting Intention figures, and so form part of the reason why YouGov show the largest Labour leads: Total Certain to vote 58% (-4) Remain 74% ( 0) Leave 59% (-9) Age 18-24 52% (+5) - but note sample is only 168 Age 25-49 54% (-3) Age 50-64 62% (-7) Age 65+ 66% (-7) |
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Post by EmCat on May 25, 2024 10:32:38 GMT
Yougov Our first YouGov Westminster voting intention poll since the election was called (23-24 May) Con: 22% (+1 from 21-22 May) Lab: 44% (-2) Reform UK: 14% (+2) Lib Dem: 9% (=) Green: 6% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) I can almost imagine the conversation during the "Not a campaign reset, but just a regroup. Honest" meetings. Advisor: The plan is working, Prime Minister! In the first couple of days, the gap has narrowed! Sunak: Hmmm. But can we turn things round? A: Well, let's see... [mutters] twenty two points, and 40 days to go... carry the one... add 3... take away the original value... [out loud] I think so. All we need to do is the steady gain of one point per week for 5 weeks, while Labour slip down 2 points per week. S: That will still be 27% to 34% A: Ah, but with margin of error, that could be as little as 30% to 31% With 5 days left, one final push will make it too close to call, and the geographic advantage we have means we could be largest party on the day S: Now that is more promising. So what do you propose we do? A: Do? Sorry, Prime Minister, I thought the numbers just worked by themselves. I didn't realise we actually had to do anything. Maybe talk about the upcoming events. Like what people's views on the programme at Glyndebourne is. S: Great! Just the thing for that photo op with the homeless shelter we have lined up. You know, I used to think your unbridled optimism was misplaced. But I really think we can win. Bring it on! |
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Post by alec on May 25, 2024 10:38:00 GMT
jib - "Still thinking it's going to be c. 40-42% Labour with the Tories about 10% behind, particularly as they throw red meat to the Reform UK likers." If Sunak throws anything at the REFUKers, he'll miss.
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Post by alec on May 25, 2024 10:42:54 GMT
barbara & neilj - "I was on a few years ago when James O'B was asking why recent working class immigrants' pupils tend to attain better results in school than indigenous working class pupils." In 1997 it was me that won it for Labour. I was on Nicky Campbell on BBC5 Live, when Hesletine was on. I told him to "shut up will you - you've had 18 years and it's my turn now" before going on to say "Tory promises are like confetti at a wedding - it looks great for 5 minutes but gets trodden into the dirt and forgotten about". Happy days.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 25, 2024 10:53:07 GMT
Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 11:11:03 GMT
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Post by alec on May 25, 2024 11:29:13 GMT
Ukraine: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is the latest senior figure to publicly argue the west shouldn't prevent Ukraine from using the weapons supplied to strike inside Russia. There is quite a head of steam building for this now, but in truth, it's the US holding it back. Meanwhile, the Kremlin threatened the UK with strikes on British targets, if UK supplied weapons were used to hit inside Russia. Empty threats again, as UK Storm Shadow missiles have already been used to devastating effect on targets in Crimea, and Putin claims Crimea is now part of Russia. There's also been a bit of a fuss from the western de-escalation crowd at news that Ukraine recently struck a Russian ballistic early warning system inside Russia. This is part of Russian nuclear deterrence early warning systems, so Ukraine has been criticised for attacking a target with little battlefield relevance, which, some say, is not a bright thing to do if you are asking for the US restrictions on weapons use to be lifted. Against that, the fuss appears to be largely manufactured by those who want to keep Ukraines tactics restricted. The attack actually happened around a month ago, but is only being discussed now. Also, the side pushing for more aggressive support for Ukraine are suggesting this was a test to demonstrate to Biden that Putin is a bullshitter; they attacked part of his nuclear shield and there was no escalation response, ergo lift the restrictions on the wider use of US weaponry as Putin won't do anything. I tend to agree. Putin has routinely threaten all manner of responses if X, Y or Z happens, it happens, and there is no response.
Edit: Indeed, I'd argue that this appeasement of Russian threats are in themselves likely to lead to escalation. It's Russian doctrine. Putin will only stop the incremental creep to more and more escalation if he gets a right spanking. I think Biden and the doves are playing this completely the wrong way round.
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Post by graham on May 25, 2024 11:29:59 GMT
One presumes the Tories will actually get their PR messaging sorted. Laughable. I am not into football at all , but was Sunak's reference to the Euro tournament whilst in Barry such a faux pas? As a 12 year old growing up in Pembrokeshire at the time of the 1966 World Cup , I remember my Dad being a very strong fan of Bobby Moore and his team - and that was true also in 1970 when England were the defending champions. I recall boys at school being fervent England supporters on both occasions - the fact that Wales had not qualified did not seem to register at all. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2024 11:36:46 GMT
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Post by graham on May 25, 2024 11:39:12 GMT
I am happy to report a very positive experience of the NHS yesterday when I attended Norfolk & Norwich Hospital for an Angiogram procedure in the Cardiology unit. The staff were absolutely superb from my arrival at 7.30am to my departure via hospital transport at 2.00pm.Next Friday I have to attend again for an oesophageal ECG and feel very reassured.
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Post by Mark on May 25, 2024 11:49:00 GMT
*** new polling thread alert ***
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 25, 2024 12:12:20 GMT
Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this? Not before August, hopefully  To give a serious answer to your question, unless some spectacular and unexpected things happen during the campaign, I'd be surprised if they got to 30% on 4th July. I'm a Labourite but I don't think I'm looking at this through red-tinted glasses. Typically, they are averaging in the low 20s. They need to increase that by about a third to get to that not-so-magic 30% figure. What's going to enable them to do that? After their brilliant start to the campaign it feels more likely at present that those figures won't improve as significantly as they need them to, or that they could even drop further. They have no big beasts to unleash on the public - it feels at the moment that Sunak is all they have, and he's looking like the hopeless, ill-at-ease, out-of-touch, over-promoted bean-counter that he is (my apologies for hyphen overload). In '92 a Brixton lad from a humble background got on his soap-box and fought tooth and nail for his party and he had to. The Tories could do with someone like him now and to be clear, I'm no fan of Major. But can anyone see Sunak on a soapbox unless it was made of gold and diamond encrusted? If he did, can anyone see that looking credible to the public? Can anyone see him suddenly becoming a more naturalistic 'performer' in front of the public? I just can't. For me the one thing that might move the dial is if the Telgraphs of this world's virulently anti-Labour messages get amplified by the the broadcast media, chief amongst them, I'm afraid to say, the BBC. Most Britons don't buy the Telegraph. All of get to hear what it thinks as ridiculously, the broadcast media's dog still allow the print media' tail to wag it. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 25, 2024 12:23:22 GMT
Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this? I think they will get 27-28%. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 25, 2024 12:30:54 GMT
Given that the management at the post office appears to have lied to everyone else Do we know that? Sure, to the general public but what evidence is there they did NOT tell their bosses of the problem, ie government? |
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Post by lens on May 25, 2024 13:28:11 GMT
Bit early for Blair? The problems for sub postmasters may indeed have begun whilst he was still PM, but I don't think the suspicion about how badly flawed Horizon was came until near the end of that government? I think the Computer Weekly article (2019) arguably marked the real turning point? After that anyone really should have been asking questions. (Which is why Ed Davey comes out of this arguably worse than any other government figure, he was minister in charge right at the most critical time. ) The Computer Weekly article was 2009, not 2019, so it was in Gordon Brown's time as Prime Minister. Ed Davey was the first minister to see the protesters, so deserves some credit not the blame for a scandal that had been brewing since John Major was Prime Minister. Firstly apologies - 2019 was a typo, it was indeed 2009. The Computer Weekly article was (just) in Brown's time as PM, but it was within the next year that Bates really got his campaign going - just in time for the new government. Davey may have eventually seen the protesters, but after refusing to acknowledge any problems for some time, and initially ignoring them. The real point is that he was the key government official ** at the time it was emerging just how big the problems were **. And for a long time he chose to try to ignore it. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 13:30:31 GMT
Lens new thread open
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Post by Rafwan on May 25, 2024 13:45:56 GMT
The Independent? Really? Anyway, you can read it for yourself in Hansard unfiltered. The role of the Leader of the Opposition when a hostile foreign power uses chemical weapons on British soil is to speak for all the people who voted for that party not just himself. He or she is representing a sizable chunk of the nation in a time of crisis. Read what Ian Blackford said for the SNP; that is exactly what Jeremy Corbyn should have said in those circumstances. It is also helpful to read Vince Cable for the Lib Dems, and instructive to read the interventions by backbench Labour MPs. hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-03-14/debates/071C37BB-DF8F-4836-88CA-66AB74369BC1/SalisburyIncidentThis is the last I shall say on this matter. Corbyn-worship still lingers on in pockets. I couldn’t stand the man. Yep. Given his footballing affiliations, you would have to seriously question his judgment. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 25, 2024 14:16:23 GMT
Davey may have eventually seen the protesters, but after refusing to acknowledge any problems for some time, and initially ignoring them. The real point is that he was the key government official ** at the time it was emerging just how big the problems were **. And for a long time he chose to try to ignore it. I seem to remember that when Vince Cable started objecting publicly to something the government wanted to do, he got pushed aside. Con wanted to privatise the PO, and nothing was to stand it the way of that. The libs did a terrible job of standing up for anything they believed in. |
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Post by xanadan on May 25, 2024 14:50:51 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. Surely what is not supportable is the expected increase in elderly with less working age people to support them?
We are undergoing a demographic transition and the UK will do better than some others precisely because we do have immigration. This needs longer term thinking to balance the dependency rate vs working age vs total population vs birth rate - not an easy balancing act.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 15:41:33 GMT
Hi xanadan
New thread open
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Post by barbara on May 25, 2024 15:46:40 GMT
I was on a few years ago when James O'B was asking why recent working class immigrants' pupils tend to attain better results in school than indigenous working class pupils. So why do they?? Because if you uproot your whole life an move continents you are doing it to achieve a better life and often that better life is focussed on your children. You work long hours in exhausting ill paid jobs in order to give your children the opportunities you never had. So there's an ethos of aspiration there. The children are raised to understand the importance of learning, qualifications and ambition. School is not to be frittered away. Children are encouraged and pushed to work hard and achieve. Also the kind of people who emigrate in the first place tend to be more dynamic and aspirational and they pass those traits onto their children. In indigenous households where multi and inter generational unemployment, poor pay and low aspiration is endemic, expectations are lower and the purpose of education as a social lifter is dismissed and/or undervalued. Hope is low and the here and managing the here and now takes over. The value of education is dismissed and adpurstiin is low. The possibility of radical change is dismissed and apathy sets in. That's a very simplistic explanation but that's the core of it. |
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Post by barbara on May 25, 2024 15:53:19 GMT
The Independent? Really? Anyway, you can read it for yourself in Hansard unfiltered. The role of the Leader of the Opposition when a hostile foreign power uses chemical weapons on British soil is to speak for all the people who voted for that party not just himself. He or she is representing a sizable chunk of the nation in a time of crisis. Read what Ian Blackford said for the SNP; that is exactly what Jeremy Corbyn should have said in those circumstances. It is also helpful to read Vince Cable for the Lib Dems, and instructive to read the interventions by backbench Labour MPs. hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-03-14/debates/071C37BB-DF8F-4836-88CA-66AB74369BC1/SalisburyIncidentThis is the last I shall say on this matter. Corbyn-worship still lingers on in pockets. I couldn’t stand the man. I don't understand it. He lost two elections, the second disastrously yet the conspiracy theories continue. He was robbed, he was unlucky, he was undermined from within etc. The simple fact that he was a useless leader never seems to occur to them. |
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Post by xanadan on May 25, 2024 16:12:17 GMT
Morning everyone. So while at risk of being accused of doing a hatchet job on Sunak, thought I'd give my assessment of him. On the positive side, he's clearly intelligent and hard working. Managerial comes to mind when thinking of his style. 'Dishy? Not to my taste.
Currently, 'hapless', seems the most applicable term. Looking like a drowned rat, asking the Welsh if they are looking forward to the footie! Perhaps similar to David Miliband?
Politically, I think he suffers from lacking any firm power base. Inheriting what he did, it would have taken a first rate politician to get the Tories back into contention. Alas, for him, he has risen above the level consummate to his skills. Zemblanity is an interesting word to describe the current state of the Conservative party! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 25, 2024 16:52:48 GMT
Surely what is not supportable is the expected increase in elderly with less working age people to support them? You are making the drug addict's defence. Because they are addicted, they must have more. The reason we have these pensioners is exactly because of past increases in population, which have now aged up to be pensioners. Import more people now, and they will in turn become pensioners too, and there will be yet more of them requiring even more immigrants. The question then is whether it is an acceptable solution to have an eternally increasing population, which will also require us to eternally build more houses. Something we have not been doing fast enough, with other negative consequences on society. Already young locally born people are in revolt that they have inadequate and over priced housing, and one reason for that is immigration. They also object to immigrant labour pushing down wages. The second problem is that internationally the birth rate is declining. It is predictable that the supply of skilled immigrant labour is going to end. Then what do you suggest we do? Whatever that is, we could just as well be doing it now instead. Other countries such as Japan have managed despite similar aging populations without allowing immigration. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 25, 2024 20:24:25 GMT
Ukraine: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is the latest senior figure to publicly argue the west shouldn't prevent Ukraine from using the weapons supplied to strike inside Russia. There is quite a head of steam building for this now, but in truth, it's the US holding it back. Meanwhile, the Kremlin threatened the UK with strikes on British targets, if UK supplied weapons were used to hit inside Russia. Empty threats again, as UK Storm Shadow missiles have already been used to devastating effect on targets in Crimea, and Putin claims Crimea is now part of Russia. There's also been a bit of a fuss from the western de-escalation crowd at news that Ukraine recently struck a Russian ballistic early warning system inside Russia. This is part of Russian nuclear deterrence early warning systems, so Ukraine has been criticised for attacking a target with little battlefield relevance, which, some say, is not a bright thing to do if you are asking for the US restrictions on weapons use to be lifted. Against that, the fuss appears to be largely manufactured by those who want to keep Ukraines tactics restricted. The attack actually happened around a month ago, but is only being discussed now. Also, the side pushing for more aggressive support for Ukraine are suggesting this was a test to demonstrate to Biden that Putin is a bullshitter; they attacked part of his nuclear shield and there was no escalation response, ergo lift the restrictions on the wider use of US weaponry as Putin won't do anything. I tend to agree. Putin has routinely threaten all manner of responses if X, Y or Z happens, it happens, and there is no response.
Edit: Indeed, I'd argue that this appeasement of Russian threats are in themselves likely to lead to escalation. It's Russian doctrine. Putin will only stop the incremental creep to more and more escalation if he gets a right spanking. I think Biden and the doves are playing this completely the wrong way round.
"Putin won't do anything" - He actually has very little room for manoeuvre in part because he can't afford to do anything serious to threaten the west and in part because of being kept on a leash by China. The empty but colourful threats are to desperately try to head off a situation where based on his rhetoric the expectation would be for him to escalate and be more aggressive in response say to Western troops in Ukraine when in reality he would be exposed to all, foreign and domestic as unable to do anything. |
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Post by mercian on May 25, 2024 21:24:53 GMT
All this touching of wood (which definitely was the wood of the cross,I know coz me old gran told me!) coupled with all the crossing of fingers leads me to believe you all are closet Christians after all  I don't know how authoritative this is, because it was just the first google result, but usdictionary.com/idioms/fingers-crossed/"The gesture of crossing fingers likely originated as a pagan symbol for protection, often done by two people intertwining their index fingers." |
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Post by mercian on May 25, 2024 21:38:30 GMT
domjg That is demonstrably untrue. He is standing as an independent in Islington and in all likelihood he will win. Labour have just picked a private healthcare owner to fight Corbyn. You couldn't ask for worse optics. Admittedly this is in IVF treatments which may be less obviously a grab at core NHS services but not a good look. When I was in the NHS I had to specify a program for the IVF service. The requirements to qualify were really strict and the object was to allow as little access to the service as possible. 'Computer says no' was the idea. I can't remember all the details, but it was stuff like BMI had to be within a certain range, the patient could never have had failed treatment before, other options must have been exhausted first and lifestyle factors were used as well. Small wonder that the private services exist. |
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Post by mercian on May 25, 2024 21:45:04 GMT
Claim to fame, just been on LBC phone in talking to Mathew Wright about how many leaders should be on the TV leaders debate When Matthew Wright was on the telly I never liked him because he always seemed to have a sneer on his face and in his tone of voice. Possibly just because he's a southerner and it's a cultural difference to us jolly Midlanders. Congratulations anyway. How many did you think? |
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Post by bardin1 on May 25, 2024 21:48:40 GMT
I had to check whether it is April 1st, but no.... www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpddxy9r4mdoBringing back National Service is an interesting idea and worthy of consideration, but as a last minute election promise it is bat excrement crazy |
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Post by mercian on May 25, 2024 21:52:42 GMT
I read somewhere (on here?) that Blair was told about the problems when he was PM. If so the problem isn't solely that of the Conservatives or the Coalition. Though they can of course be blamed for dragging their feet. I hope someone goes to prison over this, but very much doubt if they will. One bit I caught was where one of the KCs seemed to nail her on lying to a H0C committee which I understand is taken very seriously. The social security people than apparently devised different ways to do that, but the PO was left with this project anyway. It has cost a huge amount of money and it sound like there was no economic case for it once you removed catching benefit fraud. It seems to have cost about as much as the total subsidy given to the post office during the same time. While the concentration has been on the postmaster's wrongful convictions, it started out as altogether a massive waste of public money. But it should have been apparent something was wrong even in the first 5 years it was in operation, so thats back in the last labour government. Perhaps not obvious to government, but certainly should have been internally. Vennelles came late to all this, there was clearly a problem before she was hired. You could even imagine she was brought in either as a clean pair of hands to sort it, or to become the scapegoat and relieve existing employees of blame. I was contracting around that time. I regret not accepting Fujitsu's offer of a job now because I could probably have fixed it if they put me in the right job. Unless of course they were already looking for scapegoats! |
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