steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on May 24, 2024 21:59:19 GMT
After yesterday's inclement weather Sunakered ensures no fuck ups today. Here he is meeting ordinary Scottish electors.  |
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on May 24, 2024 22:04:49 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on May 24, 2024 22:05:00 GMT
Significant polling in Germany, with the AfD down in this latest poll - x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1793958220618145912This is noteworthy as it shows crossover with the SPD now taking second place, and continues the trend that has seen the AfD fall from 22% in January to 14 - 16% now. will doubtless give a much better overall context but... celebration of a poll showing the party of the Chancellor getting back *up* to second place does seem to rather emphasise the extraordinary mess they'd got into to start with? |
|
patrickbrian
Member
These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
Posts: 316
|
Post by patrickbrian on May 24, 2024 22:05:01 GMT
re: Redwood
well just for the anecdotal value, I was at University with John Redwood, and I 'retired' years ago. He was pretty twattish then (tho not particularly Tory), but I think we all were. Still, people can change over the years, and if he's a UKPR2 lurker (you never know) I wish him a happy retirement.
|
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on May 24, 2024 22:16:20 GMT
Henry Hill (deputy editor of Conservative Home) is saying on Sky that most Tory MPs are furious with Sunak. They and their staff have 6 weeks in which to find alternative employment. This was in answer to a comment that no Tories have come out in support of Sunak
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 22:16:35 GMT
Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. Although I've wavered a bit over the last few months, citing the lack of enthusiasm for Labour, my current prediction on the prediction thread is for 400 Labour seats. That might be a bit high because after all no-one really knows but I'd call that a landslide. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on May 24, 2024 22:16:59 GMT
Significant polling in Germany, with the AfD down in this latest poll - x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1793958220618145912This is noteworthy as it shows crossover with the SPD now taking second place, and continues the trend that has seen the AfD fall from 22% in January to 14 - 16% now. Fingers crossed that this is a long term trend. The AfD have recently been involved in high profile cases of party officials caught passing intelligence to Russians and the Chinese and senior figures making unsubtle Nazi references. There was also a case of party documentation that appeared to have been drawn up directly by the Kremlin. At the same time the European parliamentary group they were in, ‘Identity and Democracy’ has expelled them and Marie Le Pen has cut all ties with them. This all comes on the heels of the recent intercepted meeting of far right extremists, including major AfD figures, discussing plans for large scale expulsions. Hopefully this will be enough to seriously dent their chances in the three Eastern Land elections they were expected to do very well in later this year though I suspect a lot of the loss in support will be in the West where they are more a protest party than in the East where they are far more worryingly culturally embedded. They problem for them is that they’ve always been chaotic with a never ending power struggle between the loons they inevitably attract and a more pragmatic wing and greater popularity of late has brought a greater focus on that unseemly, grubby battle with the loons currently far more in the ascendant. Hopefully this is now a one way trajectory. eor Sorry can't help myself.. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on May 24, 2024 22:20:28 GMT
I wonder if some of these more recent Tory MP resignations, like Leadson and Gove, are more flounces in protest at Sunak's decision to go for an early election rather than considered personal decisions to retire from public life? It's becoming increasingly evident that the shambolic early campaigning by Sunak is part of a pattern emerging and that Sunak may well have made a spur of the moment decision on the election date and did so with next to no consultation with his party. Gove, Redwood and Leadson going with a mix of pique and exasperation. As others have noted, Redwood is in his 70s and perfectly entitled to retire. Leadsom is 61, Gove 56, it seems certain that the Tories are going to be out of power for five years, and very likely nearer 10 (or more). Whilst plenty of politicians would go on longer, it could well be thatthey just have no appetite for staying around to have another crack at being in government whilst drawing their state pensions, and had they announced in recent months they weren't going to stand again then it would likely have been used to generate negative headlines for Sunak anyway, rats deserting the sinking ship and all that. OK I know that's effectively what I'm saying they're doing, acknowledging that it's all doomed. But it clearly is. Time to go if you don't see yourself being around for the next World Cup anyway - let the new manager rebuild, doesn't imply any resentment (and if there were, I doubt Gove in particular would be shy about leaking that!  ) |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 22:21:50 GMT
Pride before a fall and all that. Memories of '92 still linger even though I was a teenager then. The party and supporters don't have anything like the sense of entitlement that tories do and it'll still seem like a bit of a miracle to me when Starmer walks into number 10 ( touch wood) next month. So Labour have tied up the pagan vote then.  |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 22:23:58 GMT
Somebody in Sunak's campaign team thought it would be a good idea for him to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast. Cue the inevitable questions from journalists about captaining a sinking ship.... I seriously wonder whether Labour have managed to smuggle a mole or two into CCHQ. I wonder who told him to mention football during his visit to Wales? |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on May 24, 2024 22:27:31 GMT
Pride before a fall and all that. Memories of '92 still linger even though I was a teenager then. The party and supporters don't have anything like the sense of entitlement that tories do and it'll still seem like a bit of a miracle to me when Starmer walks into number 10 ( touch wood) next month. So Labour have tied up the pagan vote then. The Greens have probably got the edge on that but I thought (haven’t looked it up) ‘touch wood’ referred to the wood of the cross so Christian in origin. edit: Seems you may be right and it does likely have a pagan origin. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 22:30:19 GMT
Somebody in Sunak's campaign team thought it would be a good idea for him to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast. Cue the inevitable questions from journalists about captaining a sinking ship.... I seriously wonder whether Labour have managed to smuggle a mole or two into CCHQ. I wonder who told him to mention football during his visit to Wales? I thought Sunak was the mole |
|
|
|
Post by lens on May 24, 2024 22:33:13 GMT
In the Paula Vennelles evidence today, an email where she told her boss (ie that would be at HM government?) that today she had 'earned her keep' in keeping mention of the Horizon system ... .... I read somewhere (on here?) that Blair was told about the problems when he was PM. If so the problem isn't solely that of the Conservatives or the Coalition. Though they can of course be blamed for dragging their feet. I hope someone goes to prison over this, but very much doubt if they will. One bit I caught was where one of the KCs seemed to nail her on lying to a H0C committee which I understand is taken very seriously. Bit early for Blair? The problems for sub postmasters may indeed have begun whilst he was still PM, but I don't think the suspicion about how badly flawed Horizon was came until near the end of that government? I think the Computer Weekly article (2019) arguably marked the real turning point? After that anyone really should have been asking questions. (Which is why Ed Davey comes out of this arguably worse than any other government figure, he was minister in charge right at the most critical time. ) |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 22:34:16 GMT
And people wonder why the UK is seen as an international laughing stock! View AttachmentMurphy isn't from the UK. And why wasn't I on the list? |
|
|
|
Post by RAF on May 24, 2024 22:36:50 GMT
Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. Although I've wavered a bit over the last few months, citing the lack of enthusiasm for Labour, my current prediction on the prediction thread is for 400 Labour seats. That might be a bit high because after all no-one really knows but I'd call that a landslide. I also think there's great uncertainty based on how far Labour has to travel, lack of enthusiam for Starmer/Labour and some degree of swingback. I also expect a significant number of Reform voters to lend their votes to the Tories - especially if they consider the alternative to be a Labour landslide. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 22:38:50 GMT
Meanwhile, the Greenbelt-NIMBY-AntiULEZ* set have decamped to the local Independents and Hale-Fellow-Well-Met-Tory-Greens, Farage wants to turn party politics into a business that generates Media Pundit opportunities, and Cummings wants to destroy the Conservative Party to replace it with his Neo-Futurist movement. None of them seem capable of actually putting together a national political force, so there's going to be a vacuum in the right of centre in British politics, and no one knows who's going to fill it. Surely Reform are the front-runners? |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 22:45:47 GMT
followed by the installation of a new PM who won't address the climate and biodiversity crises. An opportunity missed - I never expected to contemplate the demise of a Tory government with so little hope in my heart. . We haven’t discussed biodiversity on here much compared to climate change (and esp. energy), though naturally the two are related. What would you say are the key requirements for addressing biodiversity Athena? (Or indeed others who might have ideas) Back gardens are important. Discourage people from using too many chemicals and encourage them to have wildish corners. My garden for instance has a wide variety and thriving population of slugs and snails. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 23:01:27 GMT
I honestly can't quite believe what I'm seeing. The Tory campaign seems to be being run by the Marx Brothers, CON 'big beasts' are deserting en masse, seemingly desperate to avoid their own possible 'Portillo' moment, and the Daily Mail runs with a vaguely supportive interview with Rachel Reeves. Henry Hill, CON commentator, reckons on Sky News that the Tories are livid with Sunak for calling a snap election, and the whole CON machine seems to be descending (even further!) into chaos.
WTF? I mean, WTAF?
If there were an election tomorrow, even I now think LAB would win big, and possibly very big. Unfortunately, we've got six weeks to go, and well, you know, "Events, dear boy", Ming vase syndrome and all that.
But if even the Mail is becoming only lukewarm derisive to LAB, who knows? After all, if my schoolboy history serves, 2024 is the centenary of the Mail publicising the 'Zinoviev Letter', widely seen as contributing to the fall of the first Labour Government.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on May 24, 2024 23:04:11 GMT
pjw1961You cite as evidence extracts from a news medium whose job is to exploit perceived divisions in the Labour Party for its stories. Fine, but it does not remotely answer the question I put and I expected more of you.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on May 24, 2024 23:09:40 GMT
Is anyone going to watch a debate between John Swinney, Douglas Ross and Anas Sarwar? Maybe, if it’s accompanied by a pack of hobnobs… Hobnobs? It's Abernethy's here! |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 23:21:17 GMT
Maybe, if it’s accompanied by a pack of hobnobs… It's Abernethy's here! well, why not! If they’re good enough for Gladstone… |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on May 24, 2024 23:31:33 GMT
I find it strange that so many still appear to have an emotional connection to Corbyn after four years. He's political ancient history now. That is demonstrably untrue. He is standing as an independent in Islington and in all likelihood he will win. Emotional connection or not, he characterises a strand of thinking which is very important in the Labour Party (i.e. that contained in the 2017 and 2019 election manifestos). The 2017 result demonstrated that this thinking has wide support. It lost support only because of debilitating Party faction in-fighting. I think it would be a grave error to remove these ideas altogether from the Labour Party. Having said that I recognise that for you (and perhaps steve ) his pacifist tendencies are a step too far and there needs to be discussion about this. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 23:34:25 GMT
I've got all three DVDs of "That's Entertainment", the first of which I saw at the cinema in Liverpool in 1974. (My boyfriend in what can only be described as a superb act of self sacrifice took for me for my 21st birthday.) The beauty of it is that almost all of the great MGM musical stars werel still alive and feature in the film as narrators. This first film contains all (3 I think) versions of Singing In The Rain that appeared in MGM musicals. Lovely anecdote, barbara ! I've never seen number three, but have the first two on DVD also. Yes, I remember the likes of Bing Crosby, Jimmy Stewart and Frank Sinatra introduced various segments. I particularly liked Jimmy's segment, where he demonstrated how dramatic actors, (including himself!), were shoehorned into musicals and forced to sing and dance. As well as himself and Cary Grant, even Clark Gable, the 'King of Hollywood' was pressed into service, performing an Irving Berlin classic, no less. I love this! youtu.be/ZyMv6z6ceqo?si=5EL6qeTCVa6Bjv2T |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on May 24, 2024 23:38:46 GMT
Tempted in a subversive mood - I'm sure I still have some Kingston ID - do they have a candidate there? I would be campaigning on the pier for the Richmond - Hampton Court boats with a sign saying "Stop the Boats" and at Chessington World adventures at one of the bouncy castle things with a sign saying "getting inflation down. How are they doing for candidates in Scotland? I quite fancy an all-expenses paid holiday in the Highlands. I'm happy to do some door-to-door canvassing but I may plan scenic routes between dwellings in the most rural part of the constituency.
I've tried to devise a Green Conservative programme to appeal to the voters, but I keep veering into radical decentralisation of power and land reform, then it rapidly ceases to look remotely rightwing so I will be focusing on sex-based rights for women (sorry, the war on woke-ist genderism).
Naturally, in line with the rest of Sunak's campaign, his first visit to Scotland was to a constituency with no Conservative candidate!
Further south, Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire has a wider range of scenic attractions (and you might see Nessie), I don't know if it has a Conservative candidate, but it certainly has a Tory one in the form of the Lib Dem - an enthusiastic Brexiteer, who donated £25,000 to Boris Johnson's Conservative Party.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 24, 2024 23:41:09 GMT
So Labour have tied up the pagan vote then. The Greens have probably got the edge on that but I thought (haven’t looked it up) ‘touch wood’ referred to the wood of the cross so Christian in origin. edit: Seems you may be right and it does likely have a pagan origin. Yep. Like so many pagan things, the Christians took them over knowing that they wouldn't change the old ways otherwise. e.g. Christmas. I've been in churches in the south-west of England where the cross-beams had bosses (not sure if that's the right term) with the Green Man and other ancient symbols such as the 3 hare heads conjoined by the ears. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_hares |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on May 24, 2024 23:50:17 GMT
The Greens have probably got the edge on that but I thought (haven’t looked it up) ‘touch wood’ referred to the wood of the cross so Christian in origin. edit: Seems you may be right and it does likely have a pagan origin. Yep. Like so many pagan things, the Christians took them over knowing that they wouldn't change the old ways otherwise. e.g. Christmas. I've been in churches in the south-west of England where the cross-beams had bosses (not sure if that's the right term) with the Green Man and other ancient symbols such as the 3 hare heads conjoined by the ears. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_hares |
|
|
|
Post by eor on May 25, 2024 0:03:01 GMT
Significant polling in Germany, with the AfD down in this latest poll - x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1793958220618145912This is noteworthy as it shows crossover with the SPD now taking second place, and continues the trend that has seen the AfD fall from 22% in January to 14 - 16% now. Fingers crossed that this is a long term trend. The AfD have recently been involved in high profile cases of party officials caught passing intelligence to Russians and the Chinese and senior figures making unsubtle Nazi references. There was also a case of party documentation that appeared to have been drawn up directly by the Kremlin. At the same time the European parliamentary group they were in, ‘Identity and Democracy’ has expelled them and Marie Le Pen has cut all ties with them. This all comes on the heels of the recent intercepted meeting of far right extremists, including major AfD figures, discussing plans for large scale expulsions. Hopefully this will be enough to seriously dent their chances in the three Eastern Land elections they were expected to do very well in later this year though I suspect a lot of the loss in support will be in the West where they are more a protest party than in the East where they are far more worryingly culturally embedded. They problem for them is that they’ve always been chaotic with a never ending power struggle between the loons they inevitably attract and a more pragmatic wing and greater popularity of late has brought a greater focus on that unseemly, grubby battle with the loons currently far more in the ascendant. Hopefully this is now a one way trajectory. eor Sorry can't help myself.. Wasn't a dig in the slightest! I knew you'd have a lot of specific info to add, and whilst I do agree with alec's original point that this poll obviously implies a positive shift, as someone very much looking in from a distance I thought "governing party now beating beleaguered extremists again" was by itself a pretty remarkable testament to where things are. |
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on May 25, 2024 0:08:21 GMT
I seriously wonder whether Labour have managed to smuggle a mole or two into CCHQ. I wonder who told him to mention football during his visit to Wales? I thought Sunak was the mole He's not THAT short |
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on May 25, 2024 0:18:56 GMT
I seriously wonder whether Labour have managed to smuggle a mole or two into CCHQ. I wonder who told him to mention football during his visit to Wales? I thought Sunak was the mole In our house he is referred to as Roland rat. It is appropriate in terms of appearance and what he is about. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on May 25, 2024 5:07:02 GMT
oldnatWhile Eva Kestner the Labour candidate is indeed a councillor in Lewisham she until recently worked at the Scottish parliament and I understand is from Caithness, people do move beyond the border sometimes. I expect our existing MP Jamie Stone will retain the seat.
|
|
)
