steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 5:11:02 GMT
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Post by thylacine on May 25, 2024 5:16:53 GMT
All this touching of wood (which definitely was the wood of the cross,I know coz me old gran told me!) coupled with all the crossing of fingers leads me to believe you all are closet Christians after all  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 5:31:34 GMT
The safest Tory seat is South Holland and the Deepings. Their deranged far right brexitanian , climate change denying, conspiracy theorist mp is John Hayes, perfect choice for the post election Tory rump as leader.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 6:24:43 GMT
So two days in Sunak is taking a day off the campaign trail to regroup, but it's definitely not a reset, in fairness why would they reset when it's all going so well... He has previously said he will be at Wembley tomorrow to watch Southampton play Leeds. That could make the Titanic visit look sensible I suppose... x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1794124269036728540 |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 25, 2024 6:47:24 GMT
I must admit, I'm quite impressed with that rat's posture at the podium. It suggests that the little furry fellow has attended a presentation skills training course. Legs slightly apart, hands gripping the rostrum and a confident stare at the autocue. Seems assured and assertive. It's just a shame we can't hear what the little blighter is saying. Maybe, with his ratoricial skills, he's launching into a speech extolling the virtues of our privatised water companies and advocating an extension of the sewerage overspill and outflow programme. Suggesting that all waterways and coastal areas are brought into the programme. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 6:51:38 GMT
Sunakered hands over to the rat  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 6:59:42 GMT
The nearest smidgen of hope for the Tories must be the 2017 campaign when then Tory unelected prime minister Theresa May decided the best way to campaign was not to turn up, magic grandad didn't have the same issue, a Tory lead of around the same margin as now reduced to less than 3% over six weeks.
Of course this relies on the redoubtable Sir Keir remembering he's left the gas on in his Antarctic holiday home and man of the people Rishi galvanizing into action and managing to hold conversations with members of the public when he doesn't ask them what they think of a football tournament that their national team failed to qualify for and not asking what job an individual has in the City at a fucking homeless shelter.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 25, 2024 7:02:33 GMT
Fingers crossed that this is a long term trend. The AfD have recently been involved in high profile cases of party officials caught passing intelligence to Russians and the Chinese and senior figures making unsubtle Nazi references. There was also a case of party documentation that appeared to have been drawn up directly by the Kremlin. At the same time the European parliamentary group they were in, ‘Identity and Democracy’ has expelled them and Marie Le Pen has cut all ties with them. This all comes on the heels of the recent intercepted meeting of far right extremists, including major AfD figures, discussing plans for large scale expulsions. Hopefully this will be enough to seriously dent their chances in the three Eastern Land elections they were expected to do very well in later this year though I suspect a lot of the loss in support will be in the West where they are more a protest party than in the East where they are far more worryingly culturally embedded. They problem for them is that they’ve always been chaotic with a never ending power struggle between the loons they inevitably attract and a more pragmatic wing and greater popularity of late has brought a greater focus on that unseemly, grubby battle with the loons currently far more in the ascendant. Hopefully this is now a one way trajectory. eor Sorry can't help myself..  Wasn't a dig in the slightest! I knew you'd have a lot of specific info to add, and whilst I do agree with alec's original point that this poll obviously implies a positive shift, as someone very much looking in from a distance I thought "governing party now beating beleaguered extremists again" was by itself a pretty remarkable testament to where things are. The SPD only got 25% of the vote at the last federal election in 2021, it was just the other 'major' party, the CDU/CSU got 24%, so Scholz became chancellor on a vote percentage lower than the Tories are likely to get next month though admittedly the AfD only got 10% at that election. Hopefully that's where they headed back to |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 25, 2024 7:11:41 GMT
I thought Sunak was the mole He's not THAT short I thought Sunak was the mole In our house he is referred to as Roland rat. It is appropriate in terms of appearance and what he is about. Now see, you guys can get away with that, but PJ couldn’t |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 7:19:31 GMT
Yougov
Our first YouGov Westminster voting intention poll since the election was called (23-24 May)
Con: 22% (+1 from 21-22 May)
Lab: 44% (-2)
Reform UK: 14% (+2)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
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Post by crossbat11 on May 25, 2024 7:19:57 GMT
Sunak's call for weekly head-to-head televised debates with Starmer during the six week campaign is somewhat of a departure for an incumbent Prime Minister at election time. Normally they eschew giving their beleaguered opponent a puncher's chance of igniting their flagging campaign. Is this a role reversal? Flagging PM after the puncher's chance?
Is it a sign of desperation or a disingenuous offer that he hopes and expects to be declined, therefore enabling him to accuse Starmer of being scared of debating him? That's certainly how the right wing press are framing it.
Mind you, I'm not sure, should such debates ever take place, that Sunak would fare that well in them. Not because Starmer would be particularly good, which I don't think he would in fact, but because it might further expose Sunak's personal weaknesses. His tendency to nervously overtalk and babble and become quickly irritable. Not a good look.
Remember that his debates with Liz Truss were disastrous for him in the 2022 Tory leadership campaign. Truss played him in the same way that Long-Bailey did when a then relatively unknown Sunak stepped in for Johnson during the 2019 campaign televised "leadership" debates.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 25, 2024 7:23:00 GMT
Is it a sign of desperation or a disingenuous offer that he hopes and expects to be declined, therefore enabling him to accuse Starmer of being scared of debating him? That's certainly how the right wing press are framing it. Dunno much about these things, but did read that in Biden’s case, they might offer it but can cancel it later if things pick up? 🤷🏻♂️ |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 25, 2024 7:24:16 GMT
I suppose it depends what one means by making a start. If it means do a bit but the inflation continues, albeit at a slower rate, that’s not really good enough, and hardship and inequality and economic inefficiency due to housing costs will continue to increase. Might not be able to fix it all right away, but needs to be enough to reverse the direction of travel in some significant way really. Well, I did say radical. I'm not sure about the components but might include: sizeable increase in council rents to compare with a new maximum rent policy on private rental; abolition of right to buy or radical reduction in discounts and right to buy extended to private rental; council tax reform to make it proportionate and similar to rates as were; tax on under-occupation (bedroom tax for private dwellings); compulsory purchase of sites suitable for residential development if they are not being developed; this to include empty office buildings after a period of vacancy and these to be developed only in a way that meets standards set for a new development; development net profit allowance reduced from 20% as at present to probably 5%, comparable to large retailers' margins. That should shake things up! Making a start means relevant legislation implemented, with roll out phased. Well, I can dream, and i need to as it's 1.25 am. Thanks very much for your reply Guymonde. One can see how those measures might shift the dial somewhat. There are a few tricky fundamentals holding things back though. One is that we have been having high immigration but slow building rates, and it doesn’t seem like the immigration is going to fall away that much. Reclaiming some unused property is unlikely to solve the housing problem which has been growing for years. Alongside this, it suits the private sector to build at a slow rate to maximise profits. And furthermore, there is an incentive for voters to want to make money from inflating property prices. In consequence a pressure to resist development therefore. In terms of a financial return, it might be in their interests to support high immigration while also resisting development. That said, one might want people to make money from housing, just not at the expense of others. So, instead one might shift policy toward rewarding the building of more housing. Tax breaks, investment vehicles, whatever. Instead of making money by inflating the price of a single dwelling, make it by building more of them. Of course, one still has to sort the environmental concerns etc., but that then becomes the limiting factor to focus on, and needs sorting regardless as we need more and more homes. (If migration here increases further due to climate change we may need even more) |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 7:24:47 GMT
Interesting from YouGov, younger people are becoming more certain to vote. Left of centre parties will be happy with this
% saying they are "10/10 - absolutely certain to vote" in our first poll since the election was announced (23-24 May)
All Britons: 58% (+5 from 21-22 May)
18-24yr olds: 52% (+17)
25-49yr olds: 54% (+3)
50-64yr olds: 62% (+5)
65+yr olds: 66% (+7)
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 7:31:28 GMT
"Mind you, I'm not sure, should such debates ever take place, that Sunak would fare that well in them. Not because Starmer would be particularly good"
I'm pretty sure Ed Davey, who can be a pretty good public speaker would be better than either of them.
Which of course goes a significant way to explain why neither Labour, Tory or their client media want him there.
There's an outside but plausible chance of the lib dems being the official opposition ,or if the electoral calculus bizarrely swings away from Labour, in with a chance of holding the balance of power.
It might be an idea if the public had some exposure to the only national party that could be in this position.
Rather than pretending that the two parties that have around 65% of public support between them represent everyone.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 7:32:01 GMT
Is it a sign of desperation or a disingenuous offer that he hopes and expects to be declined, therefore enabling him to accuse Starmer of being scared of debating him? That's certainly how the right wing press are framing it. Dunno much about these things, but did read that in Biden’s case, they might offer it but can cancel it later if things pick up? 🤷🏻♂️ Biden has already offered two debates in June and September, which Trump has accepted Can't see him withdrawing the offer Dates are June 27 and Sept. 10 www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69017002 |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 7:35:46 GMT
neiljTrump being the demented coward that he is is already trying to wriggle out of his agreement to participate. Judging by his recent rallies where he has an autocue to assist him a face to face with the somewhat aged but cognitive Biden would almost certainly be a disaster.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 25, 2024 7:39:19 GMT
Dunno much about these things, but did read that in Biden’s case, they might offer it but can cancel it later if things pick up? 🤷🏻♂️ Biden has already offered two debates in June and September, which Trump has accepted Can't see him withdrawing the offer Dates are June 27 and Sept. 10 www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69017002Yes I think the argument was that he would be able to withdraw if things substantially improve as then it becomes more of a risk. But yeah, if things do the look like improving enough he probably won’t |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 7:39:27 GMT
"Interesting from YouGov, younger people are becoming more certain to vote. Left of centre parties will be happy with this"
I hope this is the case.
It would be a tragedy if as with Brexit lack of participation was the reason why these age cohorts got a result they didn't want.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 25, 2024 7:40:25 GMT
Dunno much about these things, but did read that in Biden’s case, they might offer it but can cancel it later if things pick up? 🤷🏻♂️ Biden has already offered two debates in June and September, which Trump has accepted Can't see him withdrawing the offer Dates are June 27 and Sept. 10 www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69017002Presidential debates coming live to you from New York State Penitentiary. |
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Post by barbara on May 25, 2024 7:40:45 GMT
I've got all three DVDs of "That's Entertainment", the first of which I saw at the cinema in Liverpool in 1974. (My boyfriend in what can only be described as a superb act of self sacrifice took for me for my 21st birthday.) The beauty of it is that almost all of the great MGM musical stars werel still alive and feature in the film as narrators. This first film contains all (3 I think) versions of Singing In The Rain that appeared in MGM musicals. Lovely anecdote, barbara ! I've never seen number three, but have the first two on DVD also. Yes, I remember the likes of Bing Crosby, Jimmy Stewart and Frank Sinatra introduced various segments. I particularly liked Jimmy's segment, where he demonstrated how dramatic actors, (including himself!), were shoehorned into musicals and forced to sing and dance. As well as himself and Cary Grant, even Clark Gable, the 'King of Hollywood' was pressed into service, performing an Irving Berlin classic, no less. I love this! youtu.be/ZyMv6z6ceqo?si=5EL6qeTCVa6Bjv2TThis is one of my favourites. 'Idiot's Delight' (with Norma Shearer) with a knowing wink to the audience. It is wondrous. The most laconic musical number you'll ever see. |
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Post by shevii on May 25, 2024 8:03:03 GMT
domjg That is demonstrably untrue. He is standing as an independent in Islington and in all likelihood he will win. Labour have just picked a private healthcare owner to fight Corbyn. You couldn't ask for worse optics. Admittedly this is in IVF treatments which may be less obviously a grab at core NHS services but not a good look. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 8:12:33 GMT
Sunakered decides a relaunch is needed and is showing his man of the people qualities by inviting the public to one of his three humble homes. That should do it. We've got a pond with three goldfish so I can truly emphasise. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by jib on May 25, 2024 8:12:51 GMT
More on that You Gov.
I'd be really surprised if Reform UK get anything more than 5% at this election, and I expect the Tories will benefit.
Still thinking it's going to be c. 40-42% Labour with the Tories about 10% behind, particularly as they throw red meat to the Reform UK likers.
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Post by mark61 on May 25, 2024 8:17:05 GMT
"Mind you, I'm not sure, should such debates ever take place, that Sunak would fare that well in them. Not because Starmer would be particularly good" I'm pretty sure Ed Davey, who can be a pretty good public speaker would be better than either of them. Which of course goes a significant way to explain why neither Labour, Tory or their client media want him there. There's an outside but plausible chance of the lib dems being the official opposition ,or if the electoral calculus bizarrely swings away from Labour, in with a chance of holding the balance of power. It might be an idea if the public had some exposure to the only national party that could be in this position. Rather than pretending that the two parties that have around 65% of public support between them represent everyone. I think the last thing Labour would agree to is a debate with more than two participants, they must be reasonably confident that Starmer won't be bested by Sunak and will probably use the justification that only these two can become prime minister. If you admit the Lib Dems you probably have to admit the Greens and Refuk based on vote share. It then all becomes a bit of a cacophony and a Pile on on the front runner. Nothing for Labour in that. I have to say I can't recall a time at a GE when the Lib Dem leader has such a low Public profile, are you concerned about this? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 8:19:43 GMT
I suppose The Tories could pick up the hard of thinking vote by spouting more racist, xenophobic ,brexitanian success cobblers.
They do risk alienating what little remains of their one nation support.
Regarding refukers not having a refukee to vote for , some will vote tory no doubt , some will vote for the Brexit lite Labour party and oddly enough the nimby credentials of the greens also attract them, I don't expect many crossovers to the lib dems☺
Polling suggests nearly half of them won't bother at all.
The Tories might gain a net 2% out of it
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 8:23:45 GMT
"I have to say I can't recall a time at a GE when the Lib Dem leader has such a low Public profile, are you concerned about this?"
Concerned a bit the legacy media coverage so far isn't very encouraging either.
The same thing happened in 2019 and while the result wasn't exactly a triumph it did represent a 40% increase in vote share on 2017.
There's still time.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 25, 2024 8:38:33 GMT
domjg That is demonstrably untrue. He is standing as an independent in Islington and in all likelihood he will win. Labour have just picked a private healthcare owner to fight Corbyn. You couldn't ask for worse optics. Admittedly this is in IVF treatments which may be less obviously a grab at core NHS services but not a good look. Private healthcare owner takes on former independent prep school and grammar school educated sitting MP in largely affluent and middle class London constituency. Roll up, roll up and watch the last stand of the Proletariat in Islington North. |
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Post by jib on May 25, 2024 8:44:38 GMT
One presumes the Tories will actually get their PR messaging sorted.
Laughable.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 8:46:25 GMT
Claim to fame, just been on LBC phone in talking to Mathew Wright about how many leaders should be on the TV leaders debate
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Wasn't a dig in the slightest! I knew you'd have a lot of specific info to add, and whilst I do agree with 
