2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[James E]

A little 'fun fact' from Electoral Calculus. Their latest constituency figures, with the Conservatives holding just 85 seats on 22.9% of the vote, show all three of Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Penny Mordaunt losing their seats to Labour. And that's without factoring in tactical voting.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Essex%20North%20West

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Fareham%20and%20Waterlooville

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Portsmouth%20North

These three are the current favourites to become the next Tory leader. Out of the ten people with the shortest odds right now , only three are shown by EC as retaining their seats (or being in Parliament, as two are not even candidates!) : these are James Cleverley, Priti Patel and Tom Tugendhat.

[steve]

James E
An absurd party with a lunatic candidate with completely unachievable policies utterly detatched from reality.
But enough about Susan Hall and the Tories.

Binface smashing it.


Attachment Deleted

[leftieliberal]

Here's an interesting development over Rwanda

For those not familiar with the Civil and Public Services Unions.
PCS tends to represent lower-ranking Civil Servants and is quite strongly political
Prospect (of which I am a member) tends to represent middle-ranking Civil Servants; it is rather less political
FDA, the First Division Association, represents high-ranking Civil Servants, essentially the Civil Servants that Ministers deal with and their immediate subordinates. Sir Humphrey would have been an FDA member.

That they are questioning whether a directive from a minister can overrule the Civil Service Code is a serious issue, and one I suspect will end up at the Supreme Court.

[jib]

May 2, 2024 13:55:56 GMT somerjohn said:

JiB: What exactly are you claiming here?

It refers to a post of mine on the previous thread. Donald Tusk had commented on an IMF forecast that in 5 years UK per capita GDP will have fallen behind Poland's, ergo it pays to be in the EU.

Mercian had done one of his, 'so what?' responses.

Mmmmm. 5 more years of Tory rule, then yes.

I can't see it happening but Poland has a lot better track record in terms of infrastructure development and the Poles are committed "nation builders" whilst the UK is full of vested interests putting their own interests first and foremost.

If the UK keeps letting people and organisations like HS2 Ltd, Michelle Mone and the privatised Water Companies to take the piss, then I can believe we will fall behind.

You can guarantee that the Warsaw to Lodz High Speed Line won't by mired down by archaeological constraints and cost overruns!

[somerjohn]

JiB:"Mmmmm. 5 more years of Tory rule, then yes."

Tusk's point was that 5 more years with Poland benefiting from EU membership and the UK self-deprived of it will do the trick.

Which obviously you can't accept. And I suppose that if in 5 years' time that is indeed what has come to pass, you still won't acknowledge that brexit was to blame. That's the nature of the brexit delusion.

As I asked, what will it take to make brexiteers like you accept the obvious? Would a further humiliation like being surpassed by, say, Bulgaria, do it? I'm guessing not. For you it will always be someone else's fault. The ineptness of the next government, failing to 'make brexit work'. Or of the EU conspiring against us; never a consequence of what Steve likes to call national shoot-yourself-in-the-foot day.

[jib]

May 2, 2024 15:49:21 GMT somerjohn said:

JiB:"Mmmmm. 5 more years of Tory rule, then yes."

Tusk's point was that 5 more years with Poland benefiting from EU membership and the UK self-deprived of it will do the trick.

Which obviously you can't accept. And I suppose that if in 5 years' time that is indeed what has come to pass, you still won't acknowledge that brexit was to blame. That's the nature of the brexit delusion.

As I asked, what will it take to make brexiteers like you accept the obvious? Would a further humiliation like being surpassed by, say, Bulgaria, do it? I'm guessing not. For you it will always be someone else's fault. The ineptness of the next government, failing to 'make brexit work'. Or of the EU conspiring against us; never a consequence of what Steve likes to call national shoot-yourself-in-the-foot day.

Let's see in 5 years.

With immigration continuing at near record rates and likely to hit 70 million within 10 years or so, the prospects for continued growth look good.

The UKs biggest problems are linked to lack of investment, and my point on HS2 is that we waste a fortune on delivering very little. 

I'm afraid I don't let a couple of Remain obsessives cloud my optimism, so no - I don't accept your assertions, and certainly not the whining from dear steve and his bollox agenda.

[pjw1961]

May 2, 2024 13:12:15 GMT leftieliberal said:

YouGov latest polling on London Mayor and Assembly election (24-30th April)
Mayor: Khan 47%, Hall 25%, Garbett 7%, Blackie 6%, Cox 6%, Count Binface 3%
Regrettably it looks like Count Binface will not come ahead of the Reform UK candidate.
Constituency: Lab 46%, Con 21%, Green 12%, LD 11%, RefUK 8%, others 2%.
List: Lab 43%, Con 21%, Green 12%, LD 11%, RefUK 8%, others 4%
Strangely Susan Hall is actually polling better than the Tories generically although the Party Managers have been doing their best to keep her away from the media.

Westminster (same area as above)
Lab 54%, Con 17%, LD 9%, Green 9%, RefUK 9%, others 2%.
Pretty consistent with their previous London polling.
 

Hall out polling Cons and Khan out polling Lab likely reflects that it is a FPTP election for mayor. 

[steve]

"Let's see in 5 years." Or 10, or 50 or in the next geological era.

The Brexitanians cry is pretty consistent.

Meanwhile to people more connected with reality

It's bindependence day.

youtu.be/I0Ods8e8-QY?si=p2gG_3wUcS8FgE-1

[Danny]

May 2, 2024 14:21:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

In relation to nick poole's experiences at the polling station this morning, I took some time out to read the lengthy list of acceptable forms of personal ID on my polling card this morning and was astounded by it. The list was heavily skewed to over 60s voters who seemed to have inexhaustible acceptable forms of ID to satisfy polling station officials,

Indeed, I presented them with my 30 year old passport and they said it was entirely recogniseable. Couldn't do that if I was 30.

I did wonder why, if a 30 year old picture is perfectly recogniseable, we have to pay to update driving license pictures every ten years?

[somerjohn]

JiB:"The UKs biggest problems are linked to lack of investment"

It's a major problem, certainly.

And what makes the UK a less desirable destination for investment than other countries like, say, Poland?

Not many investors want to place their money in a country that's swirling round the plughole of decline, when the attitude of both potential governing parties is, "that's what we've chosen and that's where we'll stay."

When you've put yourself in a hole, it's a good idea to try to get out of it. Or at least stop digging. Instead, we get protestations of what a nice hole it is.

But, enough. Let's agree to monitor how things go. Just don't complain if we remainers continue to point out the symptoms of decline as they emerge. Which I, at least, will try to do without yielding to the temptation to say, "told you so."

[Danny]

May 2, 2024 16:00:23 GMT jib said:

With immigration continuing at near record rates and likely to hit 70 million within 10 years or so, the prospects for continued growth look good.

The UKs biggest problems are linked to lack of investment, ...

I was about to point out that in many cases immigration providing cheap labour is INSTEAD OF investment. We have rather specialised in industries where low capital cost is the key to success. And where we are importing skilled labour, its because we have chosen not to train our own people.

[Danny]

There was an interesting skirmish on the drive to ban smart phones for kids today on R4. The interviewer first introduced a couple of case examples interviewing parents who were convinced phones were a big problem for their kids. Then she turned to her psychologist expert and asked what was the evidence supporting the harm caused by phones. The expert replied ... well there isnt any. She and the interviewer then rather agreed it was a terible shame there wasnt any evidence to get this ban in place.


On a different issue, news reporting protestors obstructing immigration officials and police trying to detain assylum seekers so they can be deported. As with the ongoing protests in the US against government support for israel's invasion of Gaza, both thes are pertinent to Lichtman's keys to winning an election, where he scores one key for civil disturbances.

[jib]

May 2, 2024 16:15:55 GMT somerjohn said:

JiB:"The UKs biggest problems are linked to lack of investment"

It's a major problem, certainly.

And what makes the UK a less desirable destination for investment than other countries like, say, Poland?

Not many investors want to place their money in a country that's swirling round the plughole of decline, when the attitude of both potential governing parties is, "that's what we've chosen and that's where we'll stay."

When you've put yourself in a hole, it's a good idea to try to get out of it. Or at least stop digging. Instead, we get protestations of what a nice hole it is.

But, enough. Let's agree to monitor how things go. Just don't complain if we remainers continue to point out the symptoms of decline as they emerge. Which I, at least, will try to do without yielding to the temptation to say, "told you so."

I'm not pretending the UK is a particularly great place at the moment, but I'd certainly not blame its problems on being in or out of the EU.

An ageing - and an entitled one at that - population doesn't help. A struggling working age generation straddled with massive mortgages, or more often, paying someone else's mortgage via insecure rentals. The youth indebted with tuition fees for having the temerity to do well as school. Crumbling infrastructure, rail companies and private utilities squeezing every last penny to enrich the dividends of the already rich.

Yes, the UK is broken. But it has little to do with the EU! 

[Danny]

May 2, 2024 15:32:22 GMT jib said:

the Poles are committed "nation builders" whilst the UK is full of vested interests putting their own interests first and foremost.

Indeed, they voted for Brexit.

[Danny]

May 2, 2024 16:27:48 GMT jib said:

I'm not pretending the UK is a particularly great place at the moment, but I'd certainly not blame its problems on being in or out of the EU.

Well, the traditional pro EU party in recent times, the conservatives, chose to adopt first a eurosceptic and then brexit referendum policy in order to attract UKIP votes and therfore get enough in total to beat labour. They then were rather compelled to carry out the policy they had promised. All in all, they got 14 years in power and probably regard it as a good deal. So really the problem was the conservative's willingness to ignore the Uks national interest to boost their own personal career interests. So although brexit has massivelty harmed the Uk economy and will continue to do so until and unless Brexit is reversed, the root cause is actually conservatives abandoning their principles so as to buy time in power.

An ageing - and an entitled one at that - population doesn't help. A struggling working age generation straddled with massive mortgages, or more often, paying someone else's mortgage via insecure rentals. The youth indebted with tuition fees for having the temerity to do well as school. Crumbling infrastructure, rail companies and private utilities squeezing every last penny to enrich the dividends of the already rich. Yes, the UK is broken. But it has little to do with the EU! 

What you are describing is conservative core POLICY, for the state to spend less. Their problem was that the block liking this has been shrinking as the number of losers from it has grown. Thus they needed a cause, and the one they chose was brexit.

[steve]

". Which I, at least, will try to do without yielding to the temptation to say, "told you so."
somerjohn

Don't worry I'll do it for you.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 2, 2024 16:00:23 GMT jib said:

May 2, 2024 15:49:21 GMT somerjohn said:

JiB:"Mmmmm. 5 more years of Tory rule, then yes."

Tusk's point was that 5 more years with Poland benefiting from EU membership and the UK self-deprived of it will do the trick.

With immigration continuing at near record rates and likely to hit 70 million within 10 years or so, the prospects for continued growth look good.

High immigration may also dilute the GDP-per-capita compared with other countries (although it may pick up down the line)

[domjg]

May 2, 2024 16:27:48 GMT jib said:

May 2, 2024 16:15:55 GMT somerjohn said:

JiB:"The UKs biggest problems are linked to lack of investment"

It's a major problem, certainly.

And what makes the UK a less desirable destination for investment than other countries like, say, Poland?

Not many investors want to place their money in a country that's swirling round the plughole of decline, when the attitude of both potential governing parties is, "that's what we've chosen and that's where we'll stay."

When you've put yourself in a hole, it's a good idea to try to get out of it. Or at least stop digging. Instead, we get protestations of what a nice hole it is.

But, enough. Let's agree to monitor how things go. Just don't complain if we remainers continue to point out the symptoms of decline as they emerge. Which I, at least, will try to do without yielding to the temptation to say, "told you so."

I'm not pretending the UK is a particularly great place at the moment, but I'd certainly not blame its problems on being in or out of the EU.

An ageing - and an entitled one at that - population doesn't help. A struggling working age generation straddled with massive mortgages, or more often, paying someone else's mortgage via insecure rentals. The youth indebted with tuition fees for having the temerity to do well as school. Crumbling infrastructure, rail companies and private utilities squeezing every last penny to enrich the dividends of the already rich.

Yes, the UK is broken. But it has little to do with the EU! 

I've seen the changes around US software startups.
While in the EU the almost default location for their new 'European headquarters' once they'd grown enough was, of course, here. For a few years now that's dropped off and Ireland or the Netherlands are far more likely to be chosen for that role that would have been the UK's by default a few years ago.

[somerjohn]

domjg: "For a few years now that's dropped off and Ireland or the Netherlands are far more likely to be chosen for that role that would have been the UK's by default a few years ago."

Something similar seems to be happening to the London Stock Exchange.

While we were in the EU, it held its own as the leading exchange in the EU. Since that prop was removed, it's headed steadily downhill as existing companies switch their listings elsewhere (overwhelmingly NY) and new listings go elsewhere.

Once you're in a downward spiral, it's very hard to arrest the decline, which is why I think Tusk might well be proved right. Sadly, I have no faith that an incoming Starmer government will be able, or willing, to do much about it.

[jib]

Hardly any mention of the PCC elections today.

Another idealistic output of the 2010-15 shameful coalition.

I'm giving it a wide berth and I expect most others will too.

[steve]

[shevii]

Khan saying low turnout in London which "will help the Tories"- doubt it will and you'd expect Tory turnout to be particularly low- probably just a GOTV ploy. Will be interesting to see the turnout figures though.

[davem]

Well that’s my last door knocked for this election, quick shower and change of cloths before heading to the count in Sunderland.

I have to say it has been the most positive feel for n the doorsteps this year that the can remember, certainly since 1997.

I will update you all on how our campaign strategy has worked tomorrow. If anybody is that interested, and want to have a look, I have been agent in Washington South Ward, in Sunderland.

[steve]

Police and crime commissioner post was in both the Tories and lib dems manifesto of 2010 as of 2014 Labour wanted to scrap them I've no idea if this is still their policy.

They serve no useful purpose and could be easily disposed of.

[bendo]

Dropped off my postal votes earlier (made the switch when they brought in the ID rules so as to avoid any faff). I always forget to post them but have been able to drop them off any of the polling stations which was always handy as the lads school is one. Today though I was told it had to be my ward polling station (not mentioned anywhere on the paperwork).

I asked if they had a bin but then reconsidered as one of the Tory candidate here is quite a nice bloke who does a lot of work around the area tidying verges, planting flowers and the like. Aside from being Tory, he really does seem a nice bloke. Realistically he has no chance but need to ensure it stays that way, really don't want a Tory Councillor so did take it to my polling station and made a mental note to make sure I post future ones off i ln good time.

[leftieliberal]

May 2, 2024 19:36:13 GMT steve said:

Police and crime commissioner post was in both the Tories and lib dems manifesto of 2010 as of 2014 Labour wanted to scrap them I've no idea if this is still their policy.

They serve no useful purpose and could be easily disposed of.

In London it does mean that the Head of the Met is answerable to the Mayor as well as to the Home Secretary, but generally I agree with you. At least the Party has seen the light now.

[jib]

May 2, 2024 19:30:27 GMT steve said:

View Attachment

Don't look at that Lib Dem activists' torch!

[pjw1961]

May 2, 2024 19:34:52 GMT shevii said:

Khan saying low turnout in London which "will help the Tories"- doubt it will and you'd expect Tory turnout to be particularly low- probably just a GOTV ploy. Will be interesting to see the turnout figures though.

But turnout is traditionally higher in Tory voting outer London than Labour voting inner London anyway, so I can see why Khan could be concerned by low turnout in the latter. 

[pjw1961]

For once an interesting, if depressing, anecdote from me. I made my way to the polling station and voted in the Essex PCFC election at about 6.45. The presiding officer happened to be an old colleague of mine from my Essex CC days and we got chatting. I commented that I imagined that it had been very quiet, Braintree having no other elections. She looked at her papers and said I was the 64th person to vote since 7 a.m. I had seen the list of streets covered by the polling station and you are likely talking over 2,000 potential voters.

I also mentioned I was working on getting my son to bother to vote and about an hour later I returned with him and he got cheered by the polling station staff for bothering to turn up! Never seen that before.

[oldnat]