oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 18:11:23 GMT
Seems fair. Millionaires can afford to do this kind of thing, and if the RAF want to overcharge Sunak for renting one of their planes, that would be an equitable transfer of funds from the private to the public purse.
Unless, of course, he was spending our money, not his!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 19, 2023 18:12:07 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual!  . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! The idea that someone, somewhere has some magical 'insider knowledge' on an unscientific subject is I think but a sashay away from conspiracy theorists who see shadowy cabals behind the scenes controlling things. There's private polling and focus groups and of course political consultants who will sell themselves as soothsayers but if people on here have nothing more than informed guesses then likely no-one has anymore than that and certainly not Paddy Power or whatever they're called who probably take very few bets on politics anyway so don't invest that much in making money in it. I think it all ultimately comes from the same human need as religion in using imaginative logic to suppress our inability to deal with randomness and unpredictability. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 19, 2023 18:15:51 GMT
Shocked I tell you, shocked... Shocked it’s only £2 million… |
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Post by davem on Oct 19, 2023 18:18:35 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 19, 2023 18:21:02 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! The idea that someone, somewhere has some magical 'insider knowledge' on an unscientific subject is I think but a sashay away from conspiracy theorists who see shadowy cabals behind the scenes controlling things. I suppose the idea is that even if some individuals might be deluded, on aggregate people might overall have a good idea. The wisdom of crowds thing. (But then if that were true, more people would be interested in Thorium, Truss wouldn’t have been elected and me and alec wouldn’t be the only people wearing masks) |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 18:46:24 GMT
Betfair has been a bit of a zzzZZZ but if you wanted 20-1 on LDEM for Mid.Beds then you missed your chance. Spivved* a bit of 'noise' on Mid.Beds to lock in profits and leave my position pretty much flat into the results (as I'm off to the pub and certainly not staying up for the result)
'Predictions' (aka inspired guesses) for the two by-elections already given but I'll make one more 'prediction': By this time next week then LAB will have fewer MPs than they have now. Lots of potentials on the 'minus' side but front runner IMO is based on the following tweet not having been deleted** and a 'hunch' that she'll join the march on Saturday (and of course that she is a member of the SCG faction of LAB and Starmer is looking for 'any excuse')
* Taking advantage of the ability to profit from the 'bid/offer' spread and some people betting in larger amounts that hit/lift the 'market makers' (which on Betfair can be moi, vous, etc)
** If that tweet is deleted then IMO that will be because she is smart enough to avoid attending the march and hence being 'purged'. By 'prediction' I obviously mean an inspired guess based on my view that a few LAB MPs will follow the lead of some LAB councillors AND that aid trucks will be a/ later than expected and b/ nowhere near enough (ie the 'War Crimes' that Israel are committing, with endorsement from US, UK, etc will push some LAB MPs, that probably know the consequences beforehand, to 'speak out')
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 19, 2023 18:53:27 GMT
Seems fair. Millionaires can afford to do this kind of thing, and if the RAF want to overcharge Sunak for renting one of their planes, that would be an equitable transfer of funds from the private to the public purse.
Unless, of course, he was spending our money, not his! How much on helicopters? |
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Post by Mark on Oct 19, 2023 19:26:33 GMT
My prediction, based mostly on what I've read here and in the press, one Labour gain, one Tory hold.
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Post by graham on Oct 19, 2023 19:28:40 GMT
Re- Mid Beds Labour did poll 28.5% there in 2017. Surely should better that. Indeed the almost 18,000 votes then received would be more than needed to win!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 19:47:18 GMT
2 Labour Gains.
If LD fuck up one of them they fuck themselves as all those tactical votes from Lab voters will stay with Lab next time
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 19:48:12 GMT
2 Labour Gains. If LD fuck up one of them they fuck themselves as all those tactical votes from Lab voters will stay with Lab next time Next time being the General Election |
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 19:56:57 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter"I remain sceptical of the LD's ability to get to the high 40s/50s for two reasons, one their polling remains stubbornly in the low teens. When they were at that level, their polling tended to be in the higher teens." True. 1997 16.8% 46 seats 2001 18.3% 52 2005 22.1% 62 2010 23.0% 57 I suppose their best hope is a result similar to 1997. With Labour so far ahead in the polls, it could be a similar result. I do detect a difference though. In 1997 there was genuine enthusiasm for Labour, and particularly Blair (not by me of course 😁), whereas this time I think most people agree that support is pretty lukewarm, and is more of 'time for a change' vibe than actual enthusiasm for the alternative.
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 20:10:35 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! I have some faith in my trusty spreadsheet which keeps track of party votes and seats and various other factors such as votes/seat since universal suffrage. I find that if I look at the last few polls before a GE and compare the vote shares to the nearest historical parallel it gives a reasonable forecast. There is one big weakness though. I haven't updated the method for about 20 years, so SNP, PC, UKIP, Brexit, Green etc are all lumped together as 'Others'. Now that some of those parties have seats (SNP in particular) it's less accurate than it used to be. My 'Others' reached a peak of 24.7% in 2015 which was 'peak UKIP'. Last time they were down to 12.2% but had 72 seats (largely SNP of course). I'll try to get round to updating it before the next election. |
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Post by t7g4 on Oct 19, 2023 20:10:51 GMT
Sorry people; i'm not a regular poster. I'm not expected lib dems to win either seat. My gut is saying 2 Conservatives hold.
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 20:15:48 GMT
One further post on betting and opinion polls. In my ongoing search for information on past betting patterns in elections, I happened across this academic paper which amused me. Market enthusiasts, confident of the predictive capability of betting, whose experiment went wrong when betting markets failed to predict constituency results at the 2010 GE. I especially love the last sentence as they try to reconcile reality and market theory: "What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections - Matthew Wall,Maria Laura Sudulich &Kevin Cunningham This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. We argue that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (offering candidate-level predictions), adjustable throughout the campaign, and free to access – meaning that such data should be a useful resource for electoral forecasters. However, we find that constituency-market gambling data from the site Betfair.com proved to be a relatively poor basis for predicting party seat shares, and we also find evidence suggesting that the data were systematically biased in several ways. Nonetheless, we argue that future research in this area should compensate for these biases to harness the potential of constituency prediction markets for electoral forecasting." www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2011.629727Betting odds on constituency results would be set by relatively few punters (except perhaps in by-elections or a few key seats in a GE). I'd have thought looking at odds for total number of seats would be a better guide, because of more people betting. A bit like a poll with 1000 respondents would be more accurate than one with 10. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 19, 2023 20:19:03 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! I have some faith in my trusty spreadsheet which keeps track of party votes and seats and various other factors such as votes/seat since universal suffrage. I find that if I look at the last few polls before a GE and compare the vote shares to the nearest historical parallel it gives a reasonable forecast. There is one big weakness though. I haven't updated the method for about 20 years, so SNP, PC, UKIP, Brexit, Green etc are all lumped together as 'Others'. Now that some of those parties have seats (SNP in particular) it's less accurate than it used to be. My 'Others' reached a peak of 24.7% in 2015 which was 'peak UKIP'. Last time they were down to 12.2% but had 72 seats (largely SNP of course). I'll try to get round to updating it before the next election. As you are relying on polling evidence and past electoral history for your estimate, it is still in the realms of psephology, rather than than relying on the supposed efficiency of betting markets. So you and I on broadly on the same page, even if I might quibble some aspects of your methodology. |
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,136
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Post by domjg on Oct 19, 2023 20:22:19 GMT
According to the German press Steve Bell and the Guardian have parted ways due to an unpublished cartoon of Netanjahu that was considered likely anti-Semitic.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 20:23:19 GMT
Sorry people; i'm not a regular poster. I'm not expected lib dems to win either seat. My gut is saying 2 Conservatives hold. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 20:26:32 GMT
Re- Mid Beds Labour did poll 28.5% there in 2017. Surely should better that. Indeed the almost 18,000 votes then received would be more than needed to win! You've just said that on another site! 🤣 BTW someone over there is predicting a 3am result in Mid-Beds. ☹ They tend to be even more knowledgeable than folks here and it's generally less acrimonious. I don't post there much because it's much more focussed and there are hardly any interesting diversions into bird-watching, sports, history etc etc. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 19, 2023 20:26:55 GMT
According to the German press Steve Bell and the Guardian have parted ways due to an unpublished cartoon of Netanjahu that was considered likely anti-Semitic. News was in the UK press a couple of days ago and posted on here by a certain person you block. If you want to see it its here: www.belltoons.co.uk/hotoffpress |
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Post by davem on Oct 19, 2023 20:27:36 GMT
Just been talking to one of the Labour phone bankers, who has just had a final briefing. The message appears to be that Tamworth is a Labour gain and Mid Beds will come down to who between the Tories and Labour can get the most votes out n the last 45 minutes, so very very close.
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Post by RAF on Oct 19, 2023 20:28:11 GMT
Curious to see how the by-elections turn out tonight. Tamworth is likely to fall to Labour but there is no consensus on what will happen in Mid-Bedfordshire.
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,136
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Post by domjg on Oct 19, 2023 20:30:08 GMT
According to the German press Steve Bell and the Guardian have parted ways due to an unpublished cartoon of Netanjahu that was considered likely anti-Semitic. News was in the UK press a couple of days ago and posted on here by a certain person you block. If you want to see it its here: www.belltoons.co.uk/hotoffpressAh ok! I'm well behind the curve! |
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Post by johntel on Oct 19, 2023 20:47:40 GMT
I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! . P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence! The idea that someone, somewhere has some magical 'insider knowledge' on an unscientific subject is I think but a sashay away from conspiracy theorists who see shadowy cabals behind the scenes controlling things. There's private polling and focus groups and of course political consultants who will sell themselves as soothsayers but if people on here have nothing more than informed guesses then likely no-one has anymore than that and certainly not Paddy Power or whatever they're called who probably take very few bets on politics anyway so don't invest that much in making money in it. I think it all ultimately comes from the same human need as religion in using imaginative logic to suppress our inability to deal with randomness and unpredictability. Both the published opinion polls for Mid Beds showed a Labour lead and all the national polls show a huge Labour lead so you would expect Labour to easily take the seat. And yet the Tories are favourites with the bookies?..... We'll see who's right in a few hours Though not really - polls have MOE and odds are just probabilities - in reality thousands of results are needed to prove which is more accurate. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 20:48:26 GMT
I have some faith in my trusty spreadsheet which keeps track of party votes and seats and various other factors such as votes/seat since universal suffrage. I find that if I look at the last few polls before a GE and compare the vote shares to the nearest historical parallel it gives a reasonable forecast. There is one big weakness though. I haven't updated the method for about 20 years, so SNP, PC, UKIP, Brexit, Green etc are all lumped together as 'Others'. Now that some of those parties have seats (SNP in particular) it's less accurate than it used to be. My 'Others' reached a peak of 24.7% in 2015 which was 'peak UKIP'. Last time they were down to 12.2% but had 72 seats (largely SNP of course). I'll try to get round to updating it before the next election. As you are relying on polling evidence and past electoral history for your estimate, it is still in the realms of psephology, rather than than relying on the supposed efficiency of betting markets. So you and I on broadly on the same page, even if I might quibble some aspects of your methodology. I might look at betting markets for individual seats such as by-elections but would also check past results in that constituency. I only bet like Mr Poppy - betting at one odds and then laying at another to make a certain profit, or if the odds on the overall result seem wildly different to want my records indicate. I do think that betting odds particularly on exchanges like Betfair are a reasonable indication of the state of play but a well-executed constituency poll would obviously be better. |
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Post by t7g4 on Oct 19, 2023 20:51:25 GMT
Re- Mid Beds Labour did poll 28.5% there in 2017. Surely should better that. Indeed the almost 18,000 votes then received would be more than needed to win! You've just said that on another site! 🤣 BTW someone over there is predicting a 3am result in Mid-Beds. ☹ They tend to be even more knowledgeable than folks here and it's generally less acrimonious. I don't post there much because it's much more focussed and there are hardly any interesting diversions into bird-watching, sports, history etc etc. I just don't have the time to post regularly. I may be very optimistic in suggesting 2 Conservative holds. I just don't see Lib Dems winning either seat. Labour winning Tamworth is possible (judging by what one of the posters suggested). I have nothing to base anything on in my opinion on 2 Conservative holds. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 19, 2023 20:54:52 GMT
Crossbat Tales from the Campaign Trail (Part 2)
I bade my farewells to the team in Tamworth at about 7.00pm after a shift of about 11 hours. I didn't see it out to the very end but left the final GOTV push in plentiful, capable, and more youthful,hands! I was knackered in truth and on my last door-knocking outing circa 4.00pm had received a proper soaking from a heavy thundery shower. I was hungry too and while copious supplies of sandwiches and beverages were on tap all day at the HQ at Tamworth FC, I needed some hot grub inside me.
Quite a day, rounded off by a quick chat with Emily Thornberry. We chatted about Mid Beds. She was relaxed about the outcome in many ways. Likely Tory regain at a General Election if lost today and if the Tories win the by election on a drastically reduced vote share largely because the Lib Dems and Labour have eaten each other's lunch then lessons will be both obvious and painfully learned ahead of when cooperation really matters next year. Electoral aversion therapy in other words. She hadn't written it off for Labour though. She felt it was utterly extraordinary that seats like Mid Beds and Tamworth were in play at all.
As for Tamworth today, I stick to the tentative feeling that I had earlier today that Labour will sneak it by less than a thousand votes on a lowish turnout (circa 40%). I'm not betting my house on it though. There's a sticky Tory vote in the outlying villages and in parts of the town. I sensed more apathy than an unstoppable Labour bandwagon rolling, although I met plenty of former Tory voters repulsed by Pincher and recent government failures. Repelled enough to vote Labour for the first time too.
What might swing it for Labour is that I sensed that their core vote in the town is determined to get rid of the Tories. They're more motivated than the Tory core vote, I think. In many ways there is a post Brexit polarisation still about. Not in the sense that the EU is still an issue, but political antipathies more generally are still in a heightened state. The amount of Labour voters who expressed deep dislike of the Tory Party was striking, and I met some pretty hostile Tory voters too who seemed to have a vitriolic disdain for Starmer. Has culture war politics done this to our discourse, I wonder? I had some calm and civilised conversations with voters, but not as many as I would have liked. There is a lot of heat out there still. We must all try and mitigate that if we can over time, but that's for another day perhaps.
Beware over campaigning too. Labour are flooding the town, and have been doing so for many weeks. No other party is, and the Tories are invisible, and that is a good thing and will probably pay dividends, but I met a few voters who greeted me with " not you buggers again! Your the fourth I've had knocking my door in the last two days!" Some comments too about money wasted on multiple fliers and leaflets. Maybe we should have trod more gently in places.
Met some great people in the Labour campaign today who made me, a complete stranger to them all, very welcome. I enjoyed it immensely and I really hope, for those people's sake more than anything else, that they get some great news at about 3.00am tomorrow morning.
I think they will but it could be a cliffhanger.
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Post by johntel on Oct 19, 2023 21:01:15 GMT
Crossbat Tales from the Campaign Trail (Part 2) Thanks Batty, I've enjoyed reading your inside information Didn't you meet a single Lib Dem voter on your travels? |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,457
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Post by neilj on Oct 19, 2023 21:06:11 GMT
Are postal votes counted before the in person count?
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 21:09:12 GMT
While it isn't the most important political story around in Scotland at the moment, reporting dissent within Labour with their leadership is as relevant as reporting dissent within other parties. Hence the Record, Herald and National news sites run with the story, and it's the headline on the STV News site, but BBC Scotland totally ignores it on theirs.
It's shines an interesting light on the policy of news selection within the Scottish branch of the British state broadcaster. Since there is no clear pro-UK line to take, the story is spiked until (or if) an acceptable interpretation of the event is developed.
Unsurprisingly, it is being reported elsewhere that Sarwar is "unhappy" with Starmer's pronouncements on the Israeli-Palestine conflict. The Muslim community in Glasgow has long been an area of intense competition between the SNP and Labour. With Scotland's 2 major parties having Muslim leaders, neither has an advantage on that front, but Sarwar must feel that he is disadvantaged by his "British" leader, who he can't disagree with, but is pushing messages that make it harder to make progress in many Glasgow marginal seats.
No wonder BBC Scotland doesn't know how to play the story!
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