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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 19, 2023 21:20:53 GMT
Crossbat Tales from the Campaign Trail (Part 2) Thanks Batty, I've enjoyed reading your inside information  Didn't you meet a single Lib Dem voter on your travels? Evening John. Met one or two who'd lent their vote to Labour. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 21:25:10 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 19, 2023 21:27:12 GMT
Are postal votes counted before the in person count? [br The postal vote factor is an interesting one, Neil. When campaigning on the ground, especially in the final few days, it becomes clear how much postal voting is taking place these days. I'd say one in every four voters I talked to today had already voted weeks ago! This makes it difficult to get a firm fix on what's going on especially if, as many understandably are, people are reluctant to disclose how they've voted. The big late push, therefore, while still important, does lose its impact if 20% of the electorate have always voted! |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 21:29:51 GMT
4am - Returning Officer at Tamworth declares a recount!
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Post by eor on Oct 19, 2023 21:35:13 GMT
News was in the UK press a couple of days ago and posted on here by a certain person you block. If you want to see it its here: www.belltoons.co.uk/hotoffpressAh ok! I'm well behind the curve! The account I read suggested it was a bit wider than this particular cartoon on both sides - Guardian cutting back on how often they were printing political cartoons and Bell unhappy with increased editorial interference. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 21:41:34 GMT
4am - Returning Officer at Tamworth declares a recount! He'd bloody better not!  FWIW, Sky reporter quite sanguine about LAB prospects in Tamworth from her reading of the runes. John Craig in Mid Beds. bigging up the 'CON coming through the middle' angle. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 21:54:53 GMT
Betting odds on constituency results would be set by relatively few punters (except perhaps in by-elections or a few key seats in a GE). I'd have thought looking at odds for total number of seats would be a better guide, because of more people betting. A bit like a poll with 1000 respondents would be more accurate than one with 10. Across a larger sample you will of course get a smaller MoE (eg a GE versus 2 by-elections). Not much money is placed on by-election or single seat results in a GE, however across a larger number of seats (or shares, etc) then a few 'outliers' won't make much difference to the performance of the 'portfolio' (not to be confused with the Portillo or the Porta-loos effect that can occur if you're so full of shit that 'needs must' as they say  ) PS Of course if you pick the odd winner (eg RR or Canterbury'17) then you still make a lot of quite a bit of 'bees and honey' (or 'sausages and mash' as some new money types might call it) that might offset an overall view (eg FTSE or CON to win OM in GE'17). Some folks used to say if you want a 'hedge' buy a garden but sometimes a hedge can produce enough honey to more than offset the sting of a hornet like Corbyn! PPS I've got a gut feeling and something in my waters about the results tonight, likely due to what I ate and a few too many pints of the guest ale  Pete reckoned CON would win both seats (but he's a lifelong CON), Danny had a different theory (but folks usually ignore Danny), lass behind the bar (Rachel??) reckoned LAB would win both with a massive majority but she's young and perhaps a bit biased as well |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 19, 2023 21:55:02 GMT
Quite a day, rounded off by a quick chat with Emily Thornberry. We chatted about Mid Beds. She was relaxed about the outcome in many ways. Likely Tory regain at a General Election if lost today and if the Tories win the by election on a drastically reduced vote share largely because the Lib Dems and Labour have eaten each other's lunch then lessons will be both obvious and painfully learned ahead of when cooperation really matters next year. Electoral aversion therapy in other words. She hadn't written it off for Labour though. She felt it was utterly extraordinary that seats like Mid Beds and Tamworth were in play at all.
That point can't be stressed enough. Same with Selby & Ainsty. All safe Tory seats based on 2019. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 19, 2023 22:03:40 GMT
"If LD fuck up one of them they fuck themselves as all those tactical votes from Lab voters will stay with Lab next time"
Nickp's partisan guide to getting Tories elected.
If lib dems don't stand down in one of the three seats in the country where they might beat Labour then tactical voting off the table!
Tory central office will be proud of him they need as many useful idiots as possible.
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Post by RAF on Oct 19, 2023 22:06:01 GMT
If verification/counting is going to take so long they may as well wait until the morning to start the process. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 19, 2023 22:11:14 GMT
"If LD fuck up one of them they fuck themselves as all those tactical votes from Lab voters will stay with Lab next time" Graham's partisan guide to getting Tories elected. If lib dems don't stand down in one of the three seats in the country where they might beat Labour then tactical voting off the table! Tory central office will be proud of him they need as many useful idiots as possible. That was NickP not Graham. You might recall he loaned his vote to the Lib Dems in 2010 on a tactical basis only to see them go into coalition with the Tories, and has vowed never to do it again. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 19, 2023 22:26:00 GMT
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Post by RAF on Oct 19, 2023 22:38:29 GMT
steve has a point, In a genuine three way (Tory/Lwb/LD) contest it would make no sense for the LDs to stand aside, even if it transpires that the LDs ultimately finish third.
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Post by ptarmigan on Oct 19, 2023 22:43:04 GMT
Thinking about Biden's visit to Israel He's often criticised by some as a bumbling old man who's mental faculties are in decline But he looks to have made some progress with Aid to Gaza hopefully being allowed in tomorrow Would really worry me if it was Trump in charge of the US now Meanwhile, the US continues to arm Israel and yesterday vetoed a UN resolution on 'humanitarian pauses' to the conflict. Very magnanimous of Biden to permit some aid to the people whose murder he's helping to facilitate. |
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lens
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Post by lens on Oct 19, 2023 22:50:52 GMT
For those interested, this is a rather encouraging article on the potential benefits of minewater heating - www.euronews.com/green/2023/10/14/flooded-and-forgotten-how-europe-s-disused-coal-mines-could-help-heat-our-homes?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-gbIt's gets into something of a technical guddle when discussing the heat extraction process, but apart from that it's a decent article. The UK really is sitting on a huge reserve of completely renewable heat, which won't ever run out in human times. We've lacked the imagination to develop this in a consistent and serious manner, getting sidetracked instead by vested interests pushing their own agendas, but this should always have been one of the big targets for long term development. Yes, not very good on technical detail when you get such as : "The water is then directed through heat pumps and extractors which compress the liquid, raising it to a much higher temperature before distributing it through heating networks." Compressing a liquid? Hmmm. But I agree with your general point. As for why it's not been pursued before I suspect for two general reasons. Firstly that it's only applicable in some areas of the country - near where there are old mineworkings. Whereas energy interests are more interested in developing technologies which are suitable anywhere. It's also likely to be capital intensive initially, and require a completely new distribution system if to supply homes, though with cheap running costs. Even if just for large buildings you're talking about running lengths of pipes long distances, which require good insulation - whereas solar and wind largely feed into the existing grid. But yes - good if it could be developed in areas where it's suitable. |
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Post by ptarmigan on Oct 19, 2023 22:57:27 GMT
My totally uneducated and uninformed predictions for the by-elections:
Tamworth - I think Labour will win here relatively comfortably. They managed Selby & Ainsty without much difficulty and I don't see why they shouldn't perform similarly well here, especially considering that Nigel Adams wasn't nearly as compromised as Chris Pincher.
Mid Beds - I agree with the idea that both Lab and Lib are entitled to have a crack at this seat. This is a bit of an odd one in that a by-election's been looming for an absurdly long time and I wonder if there's a bit of a residual resentment towards the Tories for the way Dorries left things in limbo. I'll go for a narrow Tory hold but I do have a nagging feeling Lab or Lib could snatch it. Ordinarily, this is true blue territory and no one else would even entertain winning here, so I'm not really sure this by-election will tell us anything very interesting. A Tory defeat would obviously suggest they're in real trouble but that's hardly news.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 23:04:01 GMT
I really object to these ill-informed, scurrilous tweets - Storm Babet hasn't reached Fareham, yet.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 23:04:17 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 23:09:31 GMT
I note that Labour's "clarification" on their policy of silencing those disenchanted with Starmer's line on Israel/Gaza doesn't seem to have had the desired effect - or maybe it has?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 19, 2023 23:13:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 23:26:53 GMT
4am - Returning Officer at Tamworth declares a recount! He'd bloody better not! FWIW, Sky reporter quite sanguine about LAB prospects in Tamworth from her reading of the runes. John Craig in Mid Beds. bigging up the 'CON coming through the middle' angle. Latest update from Sky - virtually as per my previous post. No turnout figures even yet as far as I'm aware. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 23:27:12 GMT
While we are waiting for the parliamentary by-election results, apparently LibDems have won Alveley and Claverley local by-election. 19% swing from Tories.
Tamworth turnout 36% (rounded). I presume that includes postal votes, so as it's on the low side even for a by-election, that would suggest that postal votes are even more important than ever because it implies that turnout on the day was even lower than usual.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 23:31:44 GMT
He'd bloody better not! FWIW, Sky reporter quite sanguine about LAB prospects in Tamworth from her reading of the runes. John Craig in Mid Beds. bigging up the 'CON coming through the middle' angle. Latest update from Sky - virtually as per my previous post. No turnout figures even yet as far as I'm aware. As if by magic, turnout in Tamworth 35.9%, or 25,630 votes. Pretty low. The weather today, as crossbat11 has testified, doesn't seem to have helped. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 23:34:26 GMT
@isa
Ha! Beat you to it for once (but only by editing an earlier post) 😁
Turnout 44% in Mid-Beds
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 23:43:59 GMT
I really object to these ill-informed, scurrilous tweets - Storm Babet hasn't reached Fareham, yet. Just found out, per Wikipedia, that Braverman's given name is actually Sue-Ellen, after the character in 'Dallas'. I kid you not. No wonder she's so comfortable with the intrigue of a long-running soap opera. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 19, 2023 23:44:20 GMT
I really object to these ill-informed, scurrilous tweets - Storm Babet hasn't reached Fareham, yet. you’ve got FIVE sheds though... 🌪⛈️🌊 so st least some should survive (hopefully the winery) |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 23:49:33 GMT
@isa Ha! Beat you to it for once (but only by editing an earlier post) 😁 Turnout 44% in Mid-Beds Mind you don't break that edit button! I was just about to post the Mid Beds. turnout figure. |
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Post by graham on Oct 19, 2023 23:52:16 GMT
Labour now favourites in Mid Beds. LDs say they have doubled their vote and helped Labour get over the line. Betfair now has Labour at 6/1 on!
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Post by graham on Oct 19, 2023 23:57:30 GMT
LDs say Labour has won Mid Beds.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 23:57:51 GMT
Labour now favourites in Mid Beds. LDs say they have doubled their vote and helped Labour get over the line. Betfair now has Labour at 6/1 on!
Sky now reporting that LDEM think LAB have taken Mid Beds. Astonishing if true. |
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Going to have to pace myself! 
) 
