18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[Mark]

A new polling thread on the eve of tomorrow's by-elections.

For only the second time, Reform are a touch ahead of the Greens so make it into the thread title in 4th place.

I had hoped for a new poll in time for the new thread, but, as there isn't one, have gone with the recent WeThink one.

Westminster voting intention :

LAB 44% (nc)
CON 28% (nc)
LDM 9% (-1)
REF 7% (+1)
GRN 6% (+1)

@wethinkpolling, 12-13 Oct

[Deleted]

Thanks for starting this new thread, Mark. As you say, two juicy by-elections to look forward to tomorrow, so a long evening in prospect. Sufficient liquid refreshment will be to hand. 

In normal circumstances, given the majorities being defended by CON, these would be pretty tough asks for the opposition parties. But these are not exactly normal circumstances, and it is by no means inconceivable that they could lose one, or even both.

Tamworth appears the more straightforward, with LAB the clear main challenger, although far distant last time out. However, given their impressive victory in Selby and Ainsty a while back, up against a similar majority, they will be feeling chipper about their chances.

Mid Beds. looks messier, with both LAB and LDEM vigorously trying to overturn an even bigger CON majority of nearly 25,000. The danger here is that, with a split ABCON vote, the Tories could come through the middle and retain the seat, albeit with perhaps only a modest percentage of the total vote. 

So an intriguing evening in prospect. It will hopefully prove a welcome distraction from the worthy, but often turgid, and increasingly personal, interaction on the last thread over the tragic and dreadful events in the Middle East environs and elsewhere, and the perhaps inevitable escalation in the COVID wars apparent in recent days.

[mercian]

I predict two tory holds.

[oldnat]

Oct 19, 2023 0:04:51 GMT mercian said:

I predict two tory holds.

Will one of them be the "Chickenwing over-the-shoulder crossface" hold?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wrestling_holds

[steve]

Only under first past the post could around a 70% vote against the tories*be described as a "Tory"* victory,

* Insert other party names as appropriate.

[crossbat11]

Nice to see a New Fred, Mark. Good man.

Up with larks this morning and setting off for the 45 mile drive to Tamworth at 7.00am. ETA at 8.00am for some pre commuting to work leafletting. Should go down well with the cornflakes!

Early report from the Campaign Trail. Crossbat likely to get very wet. Persisting downwards with rain.

The thinking on the ground is that a low turnout (predicted circa 40%) will help Labour, as it did in Rutherglen. Tory voters less motivated to vote.

Will keep you updated periodically as the day unfolds.

Here we go.

[Danny]

Oct 19, 2023 5:00:54 GMT steve said:

Only under first past the post could around a 70% vote against the tories*be described as a "Tory"* victory,

* Insert other party names as appropriate.

on the last thread there were some posts about the disfunctional US system of government, and contrasting the US rigid written constitution against the fluid uk constitution.

What both seem to have in common is resistance to changing with the times. In neither country do the ruling two party monopoly see reason to change the system notwithstanding neither can now command the support of the majority of the nation.

[Danny]

Report on news this morning that dredging of rivers has pretty much ceased. But maybe this is one reason we are now more susceptible to flooding, they no longer have the capacity to take away rainwater they once had.

[crossbat11]

Oct 19, 2023 0:04:51 GMT mercian said:

I predict two tory holds.

Followed by a Labour half nelson.

[neilj]

Good luck to those out today in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire, last piece of advice...take your coat 😀

[jimjam]

Labour 'expecting' close second in mid Beds to Tories which will be job done in terms of LDs understanding where they should not be sending resources.

Tamworth to be a win - perhaps by 5%+

[thylacine]

Oct 19, 2023 0:04:51 GMT mercian said:

I predict two tory holds.

Isn't that what caused Chris Pincher to step down in the first place, allegedly?

[johntel]

Oct 19, 2023 6:22:17 GMT jimjam said:

Labour 'expecting' close second in mid Beds to Tories which will be job done in terms of LDs understanding where they should not be sending resources.

Tamworth to be a win - perhaps by 5%+

On the contrary, it will inform Labour where they should not be sending resources.

[neilj]

Oct 19, 2023 7:28:46 GMT johntel said:

Oct 19, 2023 6:22:17 GMT jimjam said:

Labour 'expecting' close second in mid Beds to Tories which will be job done in terms of LDs understanding where they should not be sending resources.

Tamworth to be a win - perhaps by 5%+

On the contrary, it will inform Labour where they should not be sending resources.

Two different opinions, only one way to decide...FIGHT 😀
youtu.be/Np6gyUb0E7o?feature=shared

[neilj]

Thinking about Biden's visit to Israel
He's often criticised by some as a bumbling old man who's mental faculties are in decline
But he looks to have made some progress with Aid to Gaza hopefully being allowed in tomorrow
Would really worry me if it was Trump in charge of the US now

[jimjam]

Johntel,

Neither Lab or LDs will be sending much resource to Mid Beds come the GE, unless they win today and even then won't get the support key marginals will.

This is about seats like Watford, Kensington etc where the LDs might harbour thoughts of coming from a distant 3rd to win.

In Shropshire North, Labour were a distant second in 2019 but where they are within 20% of the Tories, the LDs not winning in Mid Beds, in my opinion, will emphasise that they are best placed to take on the Tories at the next GE.

No matter how few resources Labour put in to a seat, and even if tactical vote campaigners target, a large part of the voter base will vote Labour whatever.

[Danny]

Oct 19, 2023 7:50:09 GMT neilj said:

Thinking about Biden's visit to Israel
He's often criticised by some as a bumbling old man who's mental faculties are in decline
But he looks to have made some progress with Aid to Gaza hopefully being allowed in tomorrow
Would really worry me if it was Trump in charge of the US now

Trump's a funny one. Very hard to tell what he might do. Funny how Biden is now building trump's wall, now concentrating on repatriation of industry to the US which was Trump's policy for the rust belt in the US.

Israel needed to allow in some aid, because otherwise people are shortly going to start dying in droves. They need help to evacuate the north, and incentives for people to move south if they see aid is available there. So really they arent conceding much, just letting the US have credit for persuading them to do what they needed to do anyway. But also note it is an important goal for Israel to get Egypt to handle aid, and so start taking responsibility for the Gazans. Israel will graciously allow them to do that.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 19, 2023 6:22:17 GMT jimjam said:

Labour 'expecting' close second in mid Beds to Tories which will be job done in terms of LDs understanding where they should not be sending resources.

Tamworth to be a win - perhaps by 5%+

Within the high MoE of single seats and by-elections that certainly seems plausible and is about what the punter think.

Currently likelihood to win %s

Mid.Beds (3horse race, CON could win on 32%ish)
CON: 52%
LAB: 35%
LDEM: 13%

Tamworth (2horse race with LAB as the very obvious ABCON vote)
LAB: 75%
CON: 25%

Having taken profit on backing CON in Mid.Beds when they were 20% chance I'm now positioned the other way but markets tend to be 'thin' (not much volume) and choppy once they are 'in-play' so if CON's % chance drops below 50%* then I'll probably book most of that profit rather than leave it open through the results. I'm certainly not staying up for the results.

I doubt weather will make a difference (but could be used an excuse by any losing party   )

I expect CON will win both seats in GE'24. I've commented on the implications of CON holding either/both seats already, concerned about the policy changes that we saw after CON's 'unexpected' win in U&SR. Some nuance is required on centrally set 'Yes, In Your Back Yard' but CON will seek to weaponise the NIMBY hostility and with LDEM wanting to build even more houses than LAB then being the 'Most NIMBY' party in rural seats near bigger cities is a #nobrainer for their local campaigning - I just think the 'change' will have been too late for today's by-elections which are 'free' protest votes against the incumbent govt. 

* PS Already starting to happen. Just lifted at 2.06 on Betfair which is 48.5% likelihood. Scale-out towards 40% as anything 30-40% seems 'fair' IMO. Might get a few back+forths during the day though 💰

[Danny]

Oct 19, 2023 7:58:47 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I doubt weather will make a difference (but could be used an excuse by any losing party   )

I presume we have a consensus turnout will be very low compared a general election? presumably if its tipping down just as you were about to walk to the polling station, some will just not bother. Which will contribute to the problem of extrapolating the result to the next general election, though probably as you say, not by much. Presumably it will affect most whichever side is most demotivated. Would that be con?

Is that the root of why governments try to get good weather for elections? Because usually there are more disaffected long term government voters than disaffected opposition voters, so putting off the already demotivated always affects most the party in power (who have been disappointed by the reality compared to the promises)?

[jimjam]

Trevor, slight nuance in that Lab may just hold Tamworth in a GE if they win today.

Incumbency and Boundary changes may give them a sniff.

Not a crucial seat, though, as could get a decent HOC majority without so would just be one of those extra seats that can fall when big swings occcur.

I don't expect a big majority so probably not 'hold' Tamworth but fair to say would be a chance.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 19, 2023 7:54:56 GMT jimjam said:

Johntel,

Neither Lab or LDs will be sending much resource to Mid Beds come the GE, unless they win today and even then won't get the support key marginals will.

This is about seats like Watford, Kensington etc where the LDs might harbour thoughts of coming from a distant 3rd to win.

In Shropshire North, Labour were a distant second in 2019 but where they are within 20% of the Tories, the LDs not winning in Mid Beds, in my opinion, will emphasise that they are best placed to take on the Tories at the next GE.

No matter how few resources Labour put in the a seat, and even if tactical vote campaigners target, a large part of the voter base will vote Labour whatever.

Certainly a lot of lower hanging fruit for LAB in a GE and hence why I hope for some 'evolution' on Starmer's YIYBY plans (notably no need to build houses on greenbelt but we do need to allow central HMG powers to prevent NIMBYs blocking overhead power cables, etc)

I agree your final sentence. Higher turnout in a GE is IMO due to a lot more 'less politically engaged' people voting in a GE than in a by-election. The kind of people who vote in GEs but not by-elections will be less tuned in to 'tactical voting' at a local level, although might well be aware of policies that impact them locally (eg YIYBY v NIMBY). They'll also be more swayed by national campaigning

LDEM do well in by-elections as they have more politically engaged voters, can focus their limited funds on a small number of seats, appeal as the 'curse on both your houses' protest vote. We've gone over the history of how most of their by-election wins revert to the previous GE winner many times (but some LDEM folks will refuse to accept the truth)

TBC of course but if LDEM do come 3rd in Mid.Beds then their conference spat over 'Ultra Local' v '380k houses per year' might get a rethink. My guess if that Davey will ignore LDEM conf vote and that the 'faithful' will accept it. LDEM have very limited appeal in very specific types of seat (posh, leafy, semi-rural - with the odd exception of course!) If CON can outflank LDEM on the NIMBY side then it will be harder for LDEM to take seats from CON in GE'24

PS I agree your follow on points about Tamworth. If LAB are still 16%ish ahead in polls into GE'24 then they'd likely keep Tamworth (assuming they win it today). I should have said I expect the polls to narrow into GE'24. 

[jimjam]

The conventional thinking is that bad weather helps the Tories and it usually does.

A decent chunk of the ABT vote will be more determined to vote than reluctant Tories at present in my opinion so not sure that wisdom applies this time.

Also, Labour have very successfully targeted postal votes, to save time on the day, which may impact.

Possibly not as effective in these 2 seats as neither would have been on the radar and may well not have ran the postal vote sign up campaigns seen elsewhere?

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 19, 2023 8:13:11 GMT jimjam said:

The conventional thinking is that bad weather helps the Tories and it usually does.

A decent chunk of the ABT vote will be more determined to vote than reluctant Tories at present in my opinion so not sure that wisdom applies this time.

Also, Labour have very successfully targeted postal votes, to save time on the day, which may impact.

Possibly not as effective in these 2 seats as neither would have been on the radar and may well not have ran the postal vote sign up campaigns seen elsewhere?

Well the weather will be a good excuse for someone 

WRT Postal Votes then LAB's conf shift to YIYBY came quite late and CON were YIYBY until recently. Local CON campaign has targeted NIMBY voters and that is a powerful vote block, especially in lower turnout votes like LEs or by-elections. 

I think YIYBY v NIMBY will be an important factor in GE'24 but would once again note that it doesn't impact that many seats. LDEM should be worried given the kind of seats they might well win but LAB just needs to apply some 'nuance' to the simplism of building the 'wrong houses in the wrong places' (ie DO NOT copy Boris-CON'19, learn from their mistake)

[pete1]

I expect a definite win for Labour at Mid Beds today, even though it may be narrow. (Worst case scenario). With odds at 5-2, I've already bought the cider. (I'm not allowed champagne am I!).

[shevii]

Mid Beds is fair game for anyone to have a go at to be honest. As others have said, it's unlikely to be a hold at the General Election and if it is a hold then that's just about how massive the anti Tory majority is in the next parliament. Also not like getting rid of a Tory is going to make a difference to the parliamentary maths so it's just a by election for grabbing 24 hours of headlines. Maybe Tories holding because of a split vote makes life a bit easier for Sunak but is unlikely to have a big impact on their public perception or internal disputes a week from now. Nadine and others will have her say whatever.

I can see why Lib Dems would want Mid Beds even though Labour is clearly best positioned and appear to be well ahead of LD- it keeps their name in the public eye and emphasises a vote for LD may not be wasted. They may not be wise putting (limited?) money and resources into Mid Beds but it's their tactical decision.

Having been active in an LD-Con constituency when I was younger there's nothing more frustrating than feeling that this could have been Labour if things had worked differently in earlier elections and LD did not become the main challenger. Hence why both LD and Lab wouldn't want to give up on places like Southport, Wimbledon, Kensington etc, although I do think that in Kensington there probably remains enough of a core Lab vote from a traditional working class/deprived vote that puts it beyond LD. That used to apply to Wimbledon as well but I'm thinking the demographics have probably changed a lot in 40 years and any remaining former working class, now deprived voters simply don't vote in large enough numbers.

[barbara]

Oct 19, 2023 7:50:09 GMT neilj said:

Thinking about Biden's visit to Israel
He's often criticised by some as a bumbling old man who's mental faculties are in decline
But he looks to have made some progress with Aid to Gaza hopefully being allowed in tomorrow
Would really worry me if it was Trump in charge of the US now

He's been in politics for 50 years and has always had a strong reputation for working across the aisle and brokering agreements.. It's a strength of his. No one better in a situation like this.

[domjg]

Oct 19, 2023 8:42:45 GMT shevii said:

Mid Beds is fair game for anyone to have a go at to be honest. As others have said, it's unlikely to be a hold at the General Election and if it is a hold then that's just about how massive the anti Tory majority is in the next parliament. Also not like getting rid of a Tory is going to make a difference to the parliamentary maths so it's just a by election for grabbing 24 hours of headlines. Maybe Tories holding because of a split vote makes life a bit easier for Sunak but is unlikely to have a big impact on their public perception or internal disputes a week from now. Nadine and others will have her say whatever.

I can see why Lib Dems would want Mid Beds even though Labour is clearly best positioned and appear to be well ahead of LD- it keeps their name in the public eye and emphasises a vote for LD may not be wasted. They may not be wise putting (limited?) money and resources into Mid Beds but it's their tactical decision.

Having been active in an LD-Con constituency when I was younger there's nothing more frustrating than feeling that this could have been Labour if things had worked differently in earlier elections and LD did not become the main challenger. Hence why both LD and Lab wouldn't want to give up on places like Southport, Wimbledon, Kensington etc, although I do think that in Kensington there probably remains enough of a core Lab vote from a traditional working class/deprived vote that puts it beyond LD. That used to apply to Wimbledon as well but I'm thinking the demographics have probably changed a lot in 40 years and any remaining former working class, now deprived voters simply don't vote in large enough numbers.

"Also not like getting rid of a Tory is going to make a difference to the parliamentary maths" -

Yes, that's a big difference between now and the run up to the '97 election. Back then every by-election further endangered Major's tiny majority. This time the tories don't have to worry about that other than the potential of their own splits to cause legislative gridlock.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 19, 2023 8:42:45 GMT shevii said:

Mid Beds is fair game for anyone to have a go at to be honest. As others have said, it's unlikely to be a hold at the General Election and if it is a hold then that's just about how massive the anti Tory majority is in the next parliament. Also not like getting rid of a Tory is going to make a difference to the parliamentary maths so (1) it's just a by election for grabbing 24 hours of headlines. Maybe Tories holding because of a split vote makes life a bit easier for Sunak but is unlikely to have a big impact on their public perception or internal disputes a week from now. Nadine and others will have her say whatever.

I can see why Lib Dems would want Mid Beds even though Labour is clearly best positioned and appear to be well ahead of LD- it keeps their name in the public eye and emphasises a vote for LD may not be wasted. They may not be wise putting (limited?) money and resources into Mid Beds but it's their tactical decision.

Having been active in an LD-Con constituency when I was younger there's nothing more frustrating than feeling that this could have been Labour if things had worked differently in earlier elections and LD did not become the main challenger. Hence why both LD and Lab wouldn't want to give up on places like Southport, Wimbledon, Kensington etc, although I do think that in Kensington there probably remains enough of a core Lab vote from a traditional working class/deprived vote that puts it beyond LD. That used to apply to Wimbledon as well but (2) I'm thinking the demographics have probably changed a lot in 40 years and any remaining former working class, now deprived voters simply don't vote in large enough numbers.

(1) Normally I'd agree but we saw the impact of U&SR had broader implications (ie CON and LAB both moving towards a more 'pro-motorist' view). I've pointed out the 'obvious' policy that will be blamed, possibly changed, if CON did mange to hold one/both seats today.

(2) Age has high correlation to VI but 'working class' no longer does. Also given how far Starmer has shifted LAB then LAB look a much better 'soft-Tory' bet than LDEM (eg someone who liked Osborne as a fiscal conservative + socially liberal, who thinks CON are now too socially conservative). I note Starmer has another wealthy backer and would again point out that "Genuine LoC" folks should perhaps not celebrate who is backing LAB these days. Bit of a sinister looking photo as well IMO:

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 19, 2023 8:08:42 GMT jimjam said:

Trevor, slight nuance in that Lab may just hold Tamworth in a GE if they win today.

Incumbency and Boundary changes may give them a sniff.

Not a crucial seat, though, as could get a decent HOC majority without so would just be one of those extra seats that can fall when big swings occcur.

I don't expect a big majority so probably not 'hold' Tamworth but fair to say would be a chance.

Hi jimjam , I think you are spot on in regards to Tamworth and Mid-Beds. If Labour do win the next GE with % lead similar to that in '97, then Tamworth would very much be in play for Labour. Mod-Beds however has all the characteristics of a core Tory constituency. In a GE it definitely wont be targeted by the LDs or Lab, even if one of them wins it today, any resources deployed to hold it our likely to be minimal. The main driver of the drop in Tory vote today will be voters staying at home.

I also think for LD strategist, if they do come third despite the resources invested, they will have a more sober view of their chances in seats they aspire to were Labour could also be a challenger. I posted some analysis on this a while back, and the number of seats where this is actually the case - and the ABT vote risks being split in the way it looks like will happen in Mid-Beds - is small. 

[Mr Poppy]

Repost of YG polling on the other ongoing event. I'd have picked 'neither' but given he is already in Israel then it has to be BOTH (or at least neighbouring states like Egypt). With aid trucks likely to start up while he is in the region then Rishi will have been in the 'right place at the right time' but it's pretty clear (IMO) that Israel has 'read the room' and noted that the early 'carte blanche' offered by US, UK, et al now comes with caveats about the War crimes that Israel are committing as they target an entire population for the crimes of Hamas.

For UK polling then being in 'the right place at the right time' with some photo-ops etc might improve Rishi's approval ratings (from such a low base then the only way is up!). Cynically, then it will also be a useful 'distraction' if CON lose both by-elections today.