18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[Danny]

Oct 19, 2023 10:10:02 GMT Mr Poppy said:

By all means check polling but Johnson was never the huge electoral asset that some thought - he just was a lot less unpopular than Corbyn and happened to be in the right place at the right time (ie leader of CON into a 'Get Brexit Done' GE).

That feels awfully like saying Margaret Thatcher was never very popular. She certainly was -amongst tories. Hated by some others, of course. Made a good rabble rousing leader, however. You are of course correct Johnson was in the right place at the right time, but the same could be said for Thatcher. Like him, she was something of a long shot to get to the top (in her case most obviously for being a woman, of course).

Depending on which polling company you use then Starmer is not that popular either, just a lot less unpopular than Rishi. 

Again, that hardly detracts from Starmer any more. Are ther any politicians who are popular just now? The public pretty universally despises them all. Why is that, I wonder? The basic problem is probably politicians with limited national support inflicting their policies on the whole nation. Brexit, for example, which only got about 1/3 of the nation actively voting for it, and had majority support against by the time conservatives enacted it.

[Mr Poppy]

Betfair update:

Mid.Beds. After briefly dropping back to <50% likelihood then CON are back to about 57% likelihood to win. Not much change in LAB but LDEM are widening out (as IIRC a lot of people on UKPR2 expected to be the case). Anyone who thinks LDEM has a decent chance can now get very good odds for that.

Tamworth. zzz ZZZ. LAB still 75% likelihood with CON at 25%

PS Ground troops reports from Mid.Beds:
- CON think they're doing well but managing expectations
- LAB think they're doing well but managing expectations
- LDEM not doing well but still pretending "Only LDEM can win here" 

[Danny]

Oct 19, 2023 11:53:20 GMT domjg said:

Oct 19, 2023 11:48:32 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

What does that all mean/indicate?

I dunno! Probably nothing. It's not usual though. I've only seen Typhoons on Flight radar ie with transponders on within or close to UK airspace.

There is one obvious unusual event at the moment, Biden and Sunak visits to Israel.

[Danny]

There was an interesting interview on Woman's hour this morning on R4. They venture into politics these days and get some interesting slants.

They were interviewing the SNP MP Lisa Cameron who has just defected to Con, who was very complimentary about Theresa May. Interesting point in itself. Saw May as the sort of person who tries to get consensus and get things done for the national good. Who got booted out, of course.

Her explanation of how she came to change sides did not portray SNP in a very good light. She essentially said that her own attituded of concern for the victim in a recent sexual scandal for the SNP alienated her fellow MPS. That they were all concerned about rehabilitating the accused and party rather than what might now happen to the complainant (ie ruined career).

Aside from that she seems to have a traditional conservative background. Conservative parents, churchgoer. Not herself very interested in Scottish independence, and disenchanted with it as a central policy (or any sort of policy), seeing it as something the voters are tired of.

This came across to me as someone who might in England have been contented as a conservative MP from the outset. Its interesting she ended up in the SNP, but of course equally interesting she has now fallen out with them. Others might be feeling the same.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 19, 2023 9:27:33 GMT colin said:

Oct 19, 2023 8:54:46 GMT Mr Poppy said:

 I note Starmer has another wealthy backer 

Larry Fink is a lifelong Democrat

Life-long Democrat Mr Fink, who backed Hilary Clinton’s failed 2016 White House tilt, added: “I’m very pleased to see how the Labour Party in the UK went from an extremist party with a Marxist leader to Keir Starmer who has shown real strength as a moderate Labour Party.”

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/billionaire-blackrock-boss-backs-keir-31226695

I think we're both glad that the leader of one of the only two parties that can form HMG in UK is not a Marxist, especially as Plan A aren't that popular at the moment. 

However my comment was not about 'RoCs' (as people on UKPR2 would describe both of us): "I note Starmer has another wealthy backer and would again point out that "Genuine LoC" folks should perhaps not celebrate who is backing LAB these days"

With so much 'corporate' money coming in then LAB doesn't need Trade Union or member money. Alice Perry was elected to bring the corporate money and is doing a great job. 

Revealed: Lobbying chief set to win seat on policy-shaping Labour committee
www.opendemocracy.net/en/lobbying-labour-alice-perry-election-conference-arrangements-committee/

NB I'm happy to accept that the kind of thing Larry Fink says he supports sounds 'nice' but I would note that under Biden then US is now a major exporter of oil and gas (#1 and #2 exports by value). OK due to Russia and concerns in Middle East that is a good thing for Europe but I doubt 'Genuine LoCs' are that keen to see who is pulling the strings in LAB these days (ie corporates not trade unions/members). 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 19, 2023 12:10:10 GMT jimjam said:

Johntel.

''Did you guys seriously expect the LD's to just roll over and give Labour a clear run in Mid-Beds? They had to put everything into showing they're a force to be reckoned with in order to scare off Labour in their target seats. A narrow win for the Cons in Mid-Beds would do that very nicely."

I don't think anyone has suggested that at all and Shevii upthread expresses it best imo on this thread with myself and others saying similar things previously.

Absent any doubt, the LDs needed to contest Mids Beds properly to reinforce the message that they can take votes off the Tories in seats like these where they are in second place.

That they are unlikely to take the seat, and may well be 10% ish behind Tory/Lab, will help them identify what are sensible targets for the GE.

IMO, Ed Davey and those around him won't make the same hubristic mistake that Swinson made, egged on by Umunna and others, and overstretch.

Just to add to jimjam point, my understanding is that Ed Davey's strategy is fundamentally based on getting Lab voters to vote tactically where Lab really doesn't stand a chance. Such an approach requires avoiding any direct attacks on Labour, especially ones that would hit the national press. Therefore, they will look to minimise the number of seats where they are campaigning strongly against Labour. This relates to seats such as Cambridge, Sheffield Hallam, Watford, Kensington and Wimbledon etc. I very much doubt the LDs will step aside in all these seats, but some may see less resources allocated to them by LD central command.

Davey will know for Labour a rising tide raises all ships, and Labour is likely to see its % increase in constituencies across the board. The result today will give some indication of where in general the ABT is currently inclined to go, in many English  seats, when there is a choice of alternative.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oct 19, 2023 5:21:51 GMT crossbat11 said:

Nice to see a New Fred, Mark. Good man.

Up with larks this morning and setting off for the 45 mile drive to Tamworth at 7.00am. ETA at 8.00am for some pre commuting to work leafletting. Should go down well with the cornflakes!

Looking forward to the report batterz, but a trifle disappointed you aren’t going there by canal. I wondered what kind of canal provision - yes it’s amazing what things this place has me looking into - might be enjoyed by Tamworth, and my heart leapt when I saw that there was indeed a canal to Tamworth, but then I realised it was a canal from Coventry and you probably wouldn’t want the detour (despite the attractions of Cov.). But then I discovered that the Birmingham-Fazeley canal joins the canal from Coventry, just south of Tamworth! (I meant to let you know sooner but got waylaid by other things… reading about Covid, strengthening the Transversus Abdominis, shopping for speaker cable, the usual…)

[neilj]

You can get 8-1 on Libdems winning Mid-Bedfordshire now, good value if you really think they are in with a chance
Labour odds shortening, but suspect that's more to do with punters taking the 'value' bet rather than any inside knowledge
Tories still favourites
www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/mid-bedfordshire-by-election/winner

[mark61]

Good day all, long time reader first time poster!  Re Tamworth and Mid Beds.  Thinking Maybe Mercians call earlier may not be far off with possibly two narrow Con.
holds.  Labours voter Coalition is very broad and they may struggle to keep everyone in the tent and get them to the Polls.  If on the other hand they do pull it off it would rather confirm the narrative that the voters have made there mind up about the Government. Not long to wait to find out. 
Look forward to some intelligence from Crossbat and JimJam later on.

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2023 13:48:46 GMT mark61 said:

Good day all, long time reader first time poster!  Re Tamworth and Mid Beds.  Thinking Maybe Mercians call earlier may not be far off with possibly two narrow Con.
holds.  Labours voter Coalition is very broad and they may struggle to keep everyone in the tent and get them to the Polls.  If on the other hand they do pull it off it would rather confirm the narrative that the voters have made there mind up about the Government. Not long to wait to find out. 
Look forward to some intelligence from Crossbat and JimJam later on.

Welcome to the assorted rabble - I mean “board” - Mark.

Paul.

[neilj]

mark61

Welcome Mark

[jimjam]

Welcome Mark 61, my information is second hand but fairly accurate in terms of Labours' genuine expectations?

[jimjam]

To add I say genuine as the official line is Tamworth close to call but they do expect to take now without a recount.

[mandolinist]

Hello mark61, great to make a first post on an by-election day.

[johntel]

Oct 19, 2023 13:15:20 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 19, 2023 12:10:10 GMT jimjam said:

Johntel.

''Did you guys seriously expect the LD's to just roll over and give Labour a clear run in Mid-Beds? They had to put everything into showing they're a force to be reckoned with in order to scare off Labour in their target seats. A narrow win for the Cons in Mid-Beds would do that very nicely."

I don't think anyone has suggested that at all and Shevii upthread expresses it best imo on this thread with myself and others saying similar things previously.

Absent any doubt, the LDs needed to contest Mids Beds properly to reinforce the message that they can take votes off the Tories in seats like these where they are in second place.

That they are unlikely to take the seat, and may well be 10% ish behind Tory/Lab, will help them identify what are sensible targets for the GE.

IMO, Ed Davey and those around him won't make the same hubristic mistake that Swinson made, egged on by Umunna and others, and overstretch.

Just to add to jimjam point, my understanding is that Ed Davey's strategy is fundamentally based on getting Lab voters to vote tactically where Lab really doesn't stand a chance. Such an approach requires avoiding any direct attacks on Labour, especially ones that would hit the national press. Therefore, they will look to minimise the number of seats where they are campaigning strongly against Labour. This relates to seats such as Cambridge, Sheffield Hallam, Watford, Kensington and Wimbledon etc. I very much doubt the LDs will step aside in all these seats, but some may see less resources allocated to them by LD central command.

Davey will know for Labour a rising tide raises all ships, and Labour is likely to see its % increase in constituencies across the board. The result today will give some indication of where in general the ABT is currently inclined to go, in many English  seats, when there is a choice of alternative.

Yes agreed, but my point really was that Labour has similar decisions to make about where to put resources. I'm afraid that if they do too well in Mid Beds they'll get greedy and will also target seats where only the LDs can win. 

[Mr Poppy]

More LAB councillors resigning, disappointed with dictatorship approach of LAB HQ:

PS and at least one CON councillor as well: @cllrtigerpatel

PPS FWIW then Glasgow Kelvin (where 9 LAB councillors just resigned) was where one George Galloway won his first MP seat! There was a discussion of the implications of 'religion' in specific seats on the Issue Specific thread but I'm aware some people don't like to use those (probably a good thing as it will avoid them being clogged up) so I'll repost a useful link that people can use to see % of a specific religion by Westminster constituency:

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-religion/#compare_constituencies

Select Muslim and note Blackburn is #4. The data is from 2021 census for E&W so doesn't include Scottish seats but other links would show that Scotland has quite a small Muslim population, concentrated in seats like Glasgow Kelvin. 

[Mr Poppy]

LAB List write-up:

CLP committee quit en masse over “shut down debate” on Gaza
labourlist.org/2023/10/labour-israel-gaza-hamas-conflict-glasgow-kelvin-clp-officer-resignations/

[Dave]

Oct 19, 2023 8:38:19 GMT pete1 said:

I expect a definite win for Labour at Mid Beds today, even though it may be narrow. (Worst case scenario). With odds at 5-2, I've already bought the cider. (I'm not allowed champagne am I!).

Cider? Me and you are going to get on just fine. 🙂 Welcome to the board Pete.

[alec]

For those interested, this is a rather encouraging article on the potential benefits of minewater heating - www.euronews.com/green/2023/10/14/flooded-and-forgotten-how-europe-s-disused-coal-mines-could-help-heat-our-homes?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-gb

It's gets into something of a technical guddle when discussing the heat extraction process, but apart from that it's a decent article. The UK really is sitting on a huge reserve of completely renewable heat, which won't ever run out in human times. We've lacked the imagination to develop this in a consistent and serious manner, getting sidetracked instead by vested interests pushing their own agendas, but this should always have been one of the big targets for long term development.

[Mr Poppy]

The total is currently 53 MPs: edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/61430

YG polling shows 76% support. I appreciate neither side might respect a ceasefire but we could ask and we could have backed the UN motion y'day (we abstained which at least wasn't as shameful as US who voted against)

?

PS There is a big march planned in London for Saturday. We'll see if any MPs turn up. FWIU then LAB MPs are under strict orders not to attend but the 'correlation' of the kind of MPs that Starmer would like to purge just so happens to be very similar to the names of the LAB MPs who back Burgon's motion to call for a ceasefire. 

Abbott, Corbyn and Webbe are already Inds but for the RW-LAB 'hit list' then see:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Campaign_Group#Membership

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 19, 2023 15:02:40 GMT johntel said:

Oct 19, 2023 13:15:20 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Yes agreed, but my point really was that Labour has similar decisions to make about where to put resources. I'm afraid that if they do too well in Mid Beds they'll get greedy and will also target seats where only the LDs can win. 

Absolutely, and the challenge they both have is accurately identifying which seats to invest in. If the opinion polls are to be believed, Labour will pick up seats they weren't expecting to. Also, they would both be wise to hold some in reserve to deploy as things develop in a GE. The problem is 2019 and '17 elections were peculiar elections heavily influenced by Brexit - as the political forces that moulded the respective coalitions in both elections has receded, they may not provide a good base on which to build assumptions/expectations.

Some decisions are quite obvious - I can't see Labour investing much in areas such as Surrey or LDs in the 'red wall'. I am sure Labour will camping/fight in Wimbledon but back peddle Carshalton and Wallington.

I remain sceptical of the LD's ability to get to the high 40s/50s for two reasons, one their polling remains stubbornly in the low teens. When they were at that level, their polling tended to be in the higher teens. Also Davey doesn't seem to have the same pull as Ashdown/Kennedy/Clegg. However, a lot can change in a year, and not too long ago I was also sceptical of the possibility of an SNP demise and Labour making significant inroads in Scotland. 

[pjw1961]

Oct 19, 2023 13:47:00 GMT neilj said:

You can get 8-1 on Libdems winning Mid-Bedfordshire now, good value if you really think they are in with a chance
Labour odds shortening, but suspect that's more to do with punters taking the 'value' bet rather than any inside knowledge
Tories still favourites
www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/mid-bedfordshire-by-election/winner

I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! .

P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence!

[alec]

Sunak getting something of a kicking at the covid inquiry - www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/19/science-adviser-referred-to-rishi-sunak-as-dr-death-covid-inquiry-hears?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The eat out to help out fiasco remains one of the great failures of the pandemic, costly too, and it's clear now that it was done against scientific advice.

Interesting also to here Prof Carl Henigan described as a 'fuckwit'. Despite batting for the evidence based medicine cult, Prof Henigan got a great deal wrong, but became the go-to professor for some politicians and media outlets because they found what he said suited their agendas.

[pjw1961]

One further post on betting and opinion polls. In my ongoing search for information on past betting patterns in elections, I happened across this academic paper which amused me. Market enthusiasts, confident of the predictive capability of betting, whose experiment went wrong when betting markets failed to predict constituency results at the 2010 GE. I especially love the last sentence as they try to reconcile reality and market theory:

"What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections - Matthew Wall,Maria Laura Sudulich &Kevin Cunningham

This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. We argue that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (offering candidate-level predictions), adjustable throughout the campaign, and free to access – meaning that such data should be a useful resource for electoral forecasters. However, we find that constituency-market gambling data from the site Betfair.com proved to be a relatively poor basis for predicting party seat shares, and we also find evidence suggesting that the data were systematically biased in several ways. Nonetheless, we argue that future research in this area should compensate for these biases to harness the potential of constituency prediction markets for electoral forecasting."

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2011.629727

[Rafwan]

Oct 19, 2023 15:56:44 GMT pjw1961 said:

Oct 19, 2023 13:47:00 GMT neilj said:

You can get 8-1 on Libdems winning Mid-Bedfordshire now, good value if you really think they are in with a chance
Labour odds shortening, but suspect that's more to do with punters taking the 'value' bet rather than any inside knowledge
Tories still favourites
www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/mid-bedfordshire-by-election/winner

I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! .

P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence!

I seem to recall TOH (RIP) won huge admiration and kudos for correctly calling the 2015 result (against the odds). The fact was it was total wishful thinking by a dreadful old Tory. He was just the guy the cards fell right for in that instance and he dined out on it for months (still miss him though). Much the same with Dr Mibbles in 2017, though, sadly, he didn’t hang around to cash in his chips.

Much enjoyed your (first) post on this, pjw1961, and thought it contained startling truths. Meant to reply in more detail, but week taken up with sick granddaughter, and helping daughter negotiate a house purchase. In Romford, of all places!! Bleedin’ Romford!!

[alec]

An NHS issue that is coming up on the rails. 'Physician Associates' are an increasing presence in GP practices, with claims of limited training and experience. 'GPs on the cheap'. There have been cases of bad misdiagnosis (but obvs there also cases where GPs mess up gloriously) but this is being touted as a reform by the government. There may be merit in using lower grade medics with far less training to assess patients, but I think we would all like to be seen by the best trained doctors, given the choice.

I don't know enough about this to judge the efficacy of this in clinical terms, other than noting I wouldn't trust a Conservative government with this record on health, but I suspect that this issue will also surface once Labour is at the helm.

Here's the tweet which made me think of this, and if you listen through, it's notable that Steven Barclay pitched this in terms of union support vs reform. Although this was a commons exchange, it does suggest the government are, in part at least, viewing this through a political, rather than medical, lens.

[pjw1961]

Oct 19, 2023 16:52:44 GMT Rafwan said:

Oct 19, 2023 15:56:44 GMT pjw1961 said:

I'm sticking to my view there really isn't any such thing as 'inside knowledge' of elections, just speculation. The fact that so many of us on this site, all dedicated followers of politics, often for decades, are amusing ourselves by trying to guess the results tends to support that. After the results are known, those who guessed right can pat themselves on the back for their profound insight and those who were wrong can find reasons to explain it away as usual! .

P.s. - a light-hearted post, please don't take offence!

I seem to recall TOH (RIP) won huge admiration and kudos for correctly calling the 2015 result (against the odds). The fact was it was total wishful thinking by a dreadful old Tory. He was just the guy the cards fell right for in that instance and he dined out on it for months (still miss him though). Much the same with Dr Mibbles in 2017, though, sadly, he didn’t hang around to cash in his chips.

Much enjoyed your (first) post on this, pjw1961 , and thought it contained startling truths. Meant to reply in more detail, but week taken up with sick granddaughter, and helping daughter negotiate a house purchase. In Romford, of all places!! Bleedin’ Romford!!

Thanks for the like . In fairness to Dr Mibbles he did have a basis for his forecasts beyond 'gut feel' - he was basing it on demographics. So, for example, that Canterbury had a large student population and the balance of the population was quite middle-class 'remain' and both would favour Labour. Rumour had it that he was less successful in 2019, as indeed were the MRP poll based forecasts that use similar reasoning. 

[neilj]

The net is closing on Trump
www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67153479
'Former Donald Trump lawyer Sidney Powell has pleaded guilty to six charges in the Georgia election interference case.

In exchange for her sentence of six years of probation, Powell must testify truthfully at future trials. That is a huge win for prosecutors, given her intimate involvement in Mr Trump's fight to overturn the state's election results.'

[pjw1961]

The really important by-elections:

SHROPSHIRE UA; Alveley & Claverley (Con resigned)
Candidates:
DAVEY, Jonathan Philip (Conservative)
PHILP, Ann (Labour)
TAYLOR, Colin (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Con 859; LD 275; Grn 105

Very safe Conservative. Should be an easy hold.


SURREY CC; Horsleys (Res for Guildford Villages resigned)
Candidates:
BARNES, John Howard (Labour)
BOOTH, Dennis George William (Residents for Guildford and Villages)
KENNEDY, Paul Gilbert (Liberal Democrat)
STEWART-CLARK, Alexander (Conservative)

2021: RGV 2214; Con 1735; LD 536; Lab 149

Was reasonably safe Conservative before the localists emerged in 2021. I assume they are likely to hold it in the current political climate.



WORCESTER DC; Warndon Parish South (Con died)
Candidates:
COLLIER, Katie Debra (Green)
DESAYRAH, Sunil Michael (Labour)
HICKLING, Paul Simon (Reform UK)
JAGGER, Paul Richard (Liberal Democrats)
LIPPETT, Janet (Conservative)

2023: Grn 1206; Con 414; Lab 183; LD 42
2022: Con 863; Lab 382; Grn 284; LD 90

The vacancy is from 2022. It will be seen that in 2023 the Greens absolutely stormed it, so clear chance of a Green gain.


WORCESTERSHIRE CC; Warndon Parish (Con died)
Candidates:
CROSS, Andrew Jonathan (Green)
HODGSON, Lucy Caroline (Conservative)
MURRAY, Sarah Philippa Jane (Liberal Democrat)
NORFOLK, Robyn Diane (Labour)

2021: Con 1773; Lab 484; Grn 450; LD 180; SDP 16

Very safe Tory terrain. Con hold seems likely.

[neilj]

Shocked I tell you, shocked...