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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 9:27:33 GMT
I note Starmer has another wealthy backer Larry Fink is a lifelong Democrat |
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Post by graham on Oct 19, 2023 9:29:22 GMT
Johntel, Neither Lab or LDs will be sending much resource to Mid Beds come the GE, unless they win today and even then won't get the support key marginals will. This is about seats like Watford, Kensington etc where the LDs might harbour thoughts of coming from a distant 3rd to win. In Shropshire North, Labour were a distant second in 2019 but where they are within 20% of the Tories, the LDs not winning in Mid Beds, in my opinion, will emphasise that they are best placed to take on the Tories at the next GE. No matter how few resources Labour put in the a seat, and even if tactical vote campaigners target, a large part of the voter base will vote Labour whatever. Certainly a lot of lower hanging fruit for LAB in a GE and hence why I hope for some 'evolution' on Starmer's YIYBY plans (notably no need to build houses on greenbelt but we do need to allow central HMG powers to prevent NIMBYs blocking overhead power cables, etc) I agree your final sentence. Higher turnout in a GE is IMO due to a lot more 'less politically engaged' people voting in a GE than in a by-election. The kind of people who vote in GEs but not by-elections will be less tuned in to 'tactical voting' at a local level, although might well be aware of policies that impact them locally (eg YIYBY v NIMBY). They'll also be more swayed by national campaigning LDEM do well in by-elections as they have more politically engaged voters, can focus their limited funds on a small number of seats, appeal as the 'curse on both your houses' protest vote. We've gone over the history of how most of their by-election wins revert to the previous GE winner many times (but some LDEM folks will refuse to accept the truth) TBC of course but if LDEM do come 3rd in Mid.Beds then their conference spat over 'Ultra Local' v '380k houses per year' might get a rethink. My guess if that Davey will ignore LDEM conf vote and that the 'faithful' will accept it. LDEM have very limited appeal in very specific types of seat (posh, leafy, semi-rural - with the odd exception of course!) If CON can outflank LDEM on the NIMBY side then it will be harder for LDEM to take seats from CON in GE'24 PS I agree your follow on points about Tamworth. If LAB are still 16%ish ahead in polls into GE'24 then they'd likely keep Tamworth (assuming they win it today). I should have said I expect the polls to narrow into GE'24. Labour won Tamworth by 6% in 2005 when its GB lead was just 3%. |
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Post by alec on Oct 19, 2023 9:40:07 GMT
For those interested, have just posted on the covid thread regarding the new Pirola variant. JN.1. As predicted, this has gained functionality by gaining mutations that aid ACE2 binding affinity, something that was partially lost in the original BA.2.86 variant. JN.1 has a growth advantage of 100% per week over BA.2.86, which in turn has a significant growth advantage over the current XBB variants. Some form of wave from JN/1 looks likely before Christmas, with questions over whether it's more severe and how the theoretical high level of immune evasion translates to real world outcomes. France & the UK look to be early contenders for this variant to take dominance.
Take care.
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 19, 2023 9:50:10 GMT
colin, are the waxwings on the move? The latest information I saw suggested that the berry harvest in Scandinavia was very good, so this will probably not be an irruption year?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 9:51:01 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 9:52:03 GMT
Labour won Tamworth by 6% in 2005 when its GB lead was just 3%. Yes, things have moved around bit since (eg the correlation of 'social class' to voting has been replaced by 'age'). LAB failed to spot that into GE'19 (or perhaps preferred to lose that one to get rid of Corbyn)? A lot of seats vote very differently now to how they voted in GE'05. EG Canterbury was CON all through the Blair-Brown era (eg CON had a 15.7% majority in GE'05) but LAB won that seat in GE'17 and even increased their majority in GE'19 despite LAB slipping back in national polling. History has some use but voting patterns do shift over time. If you go back far enough (eg 1992) then CON used to win a lot of seats in London, compare that to GE'19: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/map_timeline.html |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 9:54:49 GMT
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Post by graham on Oct 19, 2023 9:59:52 GMT
Labour won Tamworth by 6% in 2005 when its GB lead was just 3%. Yes, things have moved around bit since (eg the correlation of 'social class' to voting has been replaced by 'age'). LAB failed to spot that into GE'19 (or perhaps preferred to lose that one to get rid of Corbyn)? A lot of seats vote very differently now to how they voted in GE'05. EG Canterbury was CON all through the Blair-Brown era (eg CON had a 15.7% majority in GE'05) but LAB won that seat in GE'17 and even increased their majority in GE'19 despite LAB slipping back in national polling. History has some use but voting patterns do shift over time. If you go back far enough (eg 1992) then CON used to win a lot of seats in London, compare that to GE'19: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/map_timeline.htmlMy basic contention is that the huge pro - Tory swings in such Midlands seats - and along the East Coast - was largely due to - Brexit - Corbyn - and Johnson. All have now ceased to be relevant , and it is reasonable to expect significant unwinding of that shift. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 10:03:38 GMT
colin , are the waxwings on the move? The latest information I saw suggested that the berry harvest in Scandinavia was very good, so this will probably not be an irruption year? There are reports of them-yes. Mostly up north as yet. Whether it will be a large influx remains to be seen.Perhaps your info indicates not. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 10:08:13 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 10:10:02 GMT
Yes, things have moved around bit since (eg the correlation of 'social class' to voting has been replaced by 'age'). LAB failed to spot that into GE'19 (or perhaps preferred to lose that one to get rid of Corbyn)? A lot of seats vote very differently now to how they voted in GE'05. EG Canterbury was CON all through the Blair-Brown era (eg CON had a 15.7% majority in GE'05) but LAB won that seat in GE'17 and even increased their majority in GE'19 despite LAB slipping back in national polling. History has some use but voting patterns do shift over time. If you go back far enough (eg 1992) then CON used to win a lot of seats in London, compare that to GE'19: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/map_timeline.htmlMy basic contention is that the huge pro - Tory swings in such Midlands seats - and along the East Coast - was largely due to - Brexit - Corbyn - and Johnson. All have now ceased to be relevant , and it is reasonable to expect significant unwinding of that shift. Very happy to agree that LAB have shifted a long long way since Corbyn - to the RoC side! There is now a massive gap on the 'Genuine LoC' side but FPTP will likely prevent Greens, or any 'breakaway' LW-LAB faction, from winning many seats which is why Starmer is now 'long opposed to PR'. By all means check polling but Johnson was never the huge electoral asset that some thought - he just was a lot less unpopular than Corbyn and happened to be in the right place at the right time (ie leader of CON into a 'Get Brexit Done' GE). Depending on which polling company you use then Starmer is not that popular either, just a lot less unpopular than Rishi. Very happy to agree that the broad church and circumstances that won GE'19 for CON are no longer relevant, although the 'age' correlation is still there. The best placed Brexit party with the least bad leader won in GE'19. The best placed ABCON party with the least bad leader is 'odds-on' to win GE'24. By GE'29? Well, my Bruce Foresight powers can't see that far into the future but a broad church built on weak foundations might fall down within 5yrs (noting CON might not be the beneficiaries if LAB's bored church collapses because they failed on the same issues* that Boris-CON'19 have failed on) * See polling on Most Important Issues, Rishi's 5 priorities or Starmer's 5 missions but for 'hero voters' who are the most marginal voters in the most marginal seats then 'success' will be measured if voters see: - a drop in NHS waiting lists - an improving economy (a lot of which is 'timing' luck with Global issues like Covid, Ukraine war and possibly whatever happens in Middle.East) - tackling immigration (and for younger voters see Corbyn'17 youthquake and the pinky promise Starmer is making to young voters to finally build a lot more houses - even if they are IMO 'the wrong houses in the wrong places' as per CON'19) Just saying LAB will be better at delivery than CON is one thing. I'll hold my opinion on that until I see what LAB do with a large majority after GE'24 (assuming they win a large OM). CON have set a very low bar on delivery but I'm not convinced LAB will be much better. I hope to be proved wrong! |
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Post by neilj on Oct 19, 2023 10:43:59 GMT
Cheers for posting @isa twitter link here |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 10:44:04 GMT
To add to some of my points about 'age' correlation the post GE'17 Matt Singh described it as a 'rent-quake' (which correlates with age and hence why lots of people were calling it a 'youth-quake'). Repost of his analysis in the thread below:
Britain Elects has downloadable data for stuff like % homeowners at a constituency level (current boundaries) and EC's seat level predictions have that data as well. IMO the homeowner* or not %s will be something to look at into GE'24, but probably too short a notice into a free protest vote by-election.
* A sub-analysis would look at 'mortgage' or 'owned outright' as a lot of people will 'blame' the incumbent govt for the global rise in mortgage rates. That will hurt CON in the commutable outskirts of cities/towns (notably in S.England) where a lot of young-ish voters will have very large mortgages coming off a fixed rate. Voting ABCON is effectively the same thing as voting LAB in many seats as LAB are the best placed ABCON but that is IMO a pretty 'soft' LAB vote that might not stick with LAB for long.
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Post by Mark on Oct 19, 2023 11:16:43 GMT
Anyone know what sort of time the results are expected tonight
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Post by johntel on Oct 19, 2023 11:22:41 GMT
Hi jimjam , I think you are spot on in regards to Tamworth and Mid-Beds. If Labour do win the next GE with % lead similar to that in '97, then Tamworth would very much be in play for Labour. Mod-Beds however has all the characteristics of a core Tory constituency. In a GE it definitely wont be targeted by the LDs or Lab, even if one of them wins it today, any resources deployed to hold it our likely to be minimal. The main driver of the drop in Tory vote today will be voters staying at home.
I also think for LD strategist, if they do come third despite the resources invested, they will have a more sober view of their chances in seats they aspire to were Labour could also be a challenger. I posted some analysis on this a while back, and the number of seats where this is actually the case - and the ABT vote risks being split in the way it looks like will happen in Mid-Beds - is small. Did you guys seriously expect the LD's to just roll over and give Labour a clear run in Mid-Beds? They had to put everything into showing they're a force to be reckoned with in order to scare off Labour in their target seats. A narrow win for the Cons in Mid-Beds would do that very nicely. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 11:32:10 GMT
Anyone know what sort of time the results are expected tonight No idea, but I'd guess 2-2.30 am. Size of turnout might be a factor. Also, if it's close, (quite possible ), potential for recounts. |
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Post by neilj on Oct 19, 2023 11:35:30 GMT
Most important polling news of the day...Centre Parcs could go Labour
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 11:39:10 GMT
Most important polling news of the day...Centre Parcs could go Labour Centre Right Parcs ? |
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Post by domjg on Oct 19, 2023 11:43:06 GMT
Flight radar is unusually showing RAF Typhoons from Akrotiri flying not far off the coast of Crimea. If present these would not normally have their transponders on and the only indication they might be around is a refuelling aircraft circling near a mid point.
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Post by mercian on Oct 19, 2023 11:48:10 GMT
Anyone know what sort of time the results are expected tonight Both are counting tonight. BBC has a by-election special starting at midnight. They usually have about an hour talking to various 'experts' and party reps before the results, so maybe 1am-ish? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 11:48:32 GMT
Flight radar is unusually showing RAF Typhoons from Akrotiri flying not far off the coast of Crimea. If present these would not normally have their transponders on and the only indication they might be around is a refuelling aircraft circling near a mid point. What does that all mean/indicate? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 19, 2023 11:53:20 GMT
Flight radar is unusually showing RAF Typhoons from Akrotiri flying not far off the coast of Crimea. If present these would not normally have their transponders on and the only indication they might be around is a refuelling aircraft circling near a mid point. What does that all mean/indicate? I dunno! Probably nothing. It's not usual though. I've only seen Typhoons on Flight radar ie with transponders on within or close to UK airspace. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 19, 2023 12:02:25 GMT
Flight radar is unusually showing RAF Typhoons from Akrotiri flying not far off the coast of Crimea. If present these would not normally have their transponders on and the only indication they might be around is a refuelling aircraft circling near a mid point. What does that all mean/indicate? Looks like they were escorting an RAF Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft which has also now appeared. One of these was very nearly shot down by the Russians in the same area last year. They seemed to go quite far along the southern coast of Crimea before turning around. Those tracks are now no longer showing. |
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Post by jimjam on Oct 19, 2023 12:10:10 GMT
Johntel.
''Did you guys seriously expect the LD's to just roll over and give Labour a clear run in Mid-Beds? They had to put everything into showing they're a force to be reckoned with in order to scare off Labour in their target seats. A narrow win for the Cons in Mid-Beds would do that very nicely."
I don't think anyone has suggested that at all and Shevii upthread expresses it best imo on this thread with myself and others saying similar things previously.
Absent any doubt, the LDs needed to contest Mids Beds properly to reinforce the message that they can take votes off the Tories in seats like these where they are in second place.
That they are unlikely to take the seat, and may well be 10% ish behind Tory/Lab, will help them identify what are sensible targets for the GE.
IMO, Ed Davey and those around him won't make the same hubristic mistake that Swinson made, egged on by Umunna and others, and overstretch.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 19, 2023 12:12:44 GMT
Savanta poll, polldrums
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Post by jimjam on Oct 19, 2023 12:21:17 GMT
Isa/Neil,
Perhaps the most significant shift from the conference season, even if only modest, has been the improved numbers for Labour on the Economy and Reeves.
The drip drip of this business person supporting Labour, lots of businesses attending their conference etc subliminally shifts some voters perceptions.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 19, 2023 12:25:34 GMT
Crossbat Tales from the Campaign Trail - First Report.
The sun has smiled on us so far and the weather is surprisingly warm and clement. Just taking a lunch break after a morning doorstepping and leafletting households identified in canvass returns as potential Labour supporting.
In the company of greatness here too. Pat McFadden, Chris Bryant, Yvette Cooper, Mary Creagh, Ian Murray and the new MP from Rutherglen amongst an extraordinary turnout of volunteers and activists from all over the country. I was with a local Tamworth fellow this morning plus someone from Manchester and another from the Derbyshire Dales.
I've had mainly encouraging conversations mixed with one or two profoundly depressing ones. A Reform UK voter giving me a homily about migrants. A very bellicose Tory voter and a couple of Starmer sceptics saying he's posh, loaded and out of touch. Sun editorials played back to me.
But the encouraging conversations are heartening to hear for this old wizened Labour man. As is seeing the youth and enthusiasm of the hundreds of Labour volunteers working their socks off to get Sarah Edwards elected.
Feel so far? Labour by a whisker, but it's on a knife edge is the informed consensus.
My highlight so far as I prepare to venture out again was a chat I had with a Labour supporting Villa fan. He couldn't decide who he disliked the most. The Tories or the Blues of Small Heath!
On we go. Ever hopeful.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 19, 2023 12:32:06 GMT
Repost of YG polling on the other ongoing event. I'd have picked 'neither' but given he is already in Israel then it has to be BOTH (or at least neighbouring states like Egypt). With aid trucks likely to start up while he is in the region then Rishi will have been in the 'right place at the right time' but it's pretty clear (IMO) that Israel has 'read the room' and noted that the early 'carte blanche' offered by US, UK, et al now comes with caveats about the War crimes that Israel are committing as they target an entire population for the crimes of Hamas. Some israeli being interviewed on R4 just now. Interviewer asked him whether the Gazan region will be smaller after the Israeli action about to commence. He refused to answer the question, which apparently was based upon a comment to this effect from someone in authority. Obviously Israel does not want to be held responsible for the deaths of all these Gazans, so it will have to allow in aid. This is however consistent with its initial policy of cutting off normal services and supplies, so that the population will be forced to move to designated aid sites, which I take it will be in the south where people have been ordered to move to. Interestingly R4 also interviewed some sort of protestor in Israel, who regrads the Hamas incursion as the fault of the Israeli government. To be fair this person did seem to have already been an activist protesting against Netanyahu and his attempts to avoid being placed on trial, before this all blew up. |
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Post by Danny on Oct 19, 2023 12:37:02 GMT
Higher interest rates are a headache for all countries and people looking to borrow money (although quite nice for anyone coming up to retirement and looking to lock in an annuity or move expiring 1y bonds into 30yr bonds) Technically interest rates fall in the remit of the bank of England, but if the government seriously disagreed with their policy, it would be changed. Whetehr a headache or not, high interest is the policy of the Uk government. Moreover, this entire spate of high interest was caused by central banks selling government bonds, following nthe decision of the US fed to do so. High debt interest is a deliberate choice of governments. Makes you think why they wanted high interest on government bonds? |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 19, 2023 12:43:40 GMT
Isa/Neil, Perhaps the most significant shift from the conference season, even if only modest, has been the improved numbers for Labour on the Economy and Reeves. The drip drip of this business person supporting Labour, lots of businesses attending their conference etc subliminally shifts some voters perceptions.Not bad for LAB party funds either! Likes of BlackRock understand that 'lobbying' offers a very high RoI and see LAB as far more open to lobbying under Starmer than the more 'Trade Union and member' influence of Corbyn-LAB. LAB will obviously be happy to keep taking Trade Union money but they don't need that money anymore! As mentioned earlier then 'soft Tories' will probably see Starmer-LAB as someone they are quite happy to see in power and as per all the business types flocking to LAB they like to back winners (eg if LAB are going to win an OM then surely better to be represented by a Centre-Right LAB MP than a LDEM/CON MP) No sign in polling of much lose in 'loyalty' of LAB'19 voters who will probably stick with LAB as best placed ABCON. I've commented on the 'housing' promise before but YIYBY v NIMBY is likely to be a dividing line into GE'24 |
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