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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2023 15:20:20 GMT
And what are us day time readers to watch in order to forego the joys of Pain(e)with PJW , Doom with Domjg and Corny with Crossbat ? I've been playing a game called spot the tiny bit of blue sky before another bank of grey cloud rolls in front of it. Grey skies here too. But with patches of red. No sign of blue  |
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 15:24:18 GMT
Brexit was an example where they made common cause with working class against the middle class, but in the end con did as they always do and have made things worse for the working class. You keep getting this wrong. Official Tory policy was to Remain and the campaign was led by the then Tory PM. Leave then won and the government presumably felt it had to implement the result. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2023 15:31:02 GMT
Barkley always looked in the edge (sometimes over the edge) of being overweight. Not the first sportsperson to fail to deliver on promise.
(For example I was brilliant when I was ten in Gibraltar - nearly making the team for our year group at one point.)
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 15:31:27 GMT
Mark Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Yes you've identified several interesting issues. 1) Big cities becoming more Labour. That's particularly inner cities where recent immigrants and their descendants tend to be, so that's a complicating issue on top of the class/education theory. Hmm. Except look at the immigrants forming the current conservative government. Immigrants were pro brexit and can be very conservatives. They are also only a minority in cities despite claims to the contrary. In the 2021 census 42.9% of the population of Birmingham was white British. I haven't looked up other obvious candidates such as London, Leicester and Bradford because one example is enough to show that you're just making unevidenced assertions again. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Birmingham#Ethnicity |
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 15:36:01 GMT
mercian "It's very refreshing to have politicians who are blunt and direct rather than all the mealy-mouthed squirming that we get from most of them" You must really admire jen then Didn't know she was a politician. Perhaps she's standing for hall monitor at her school? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 15:44:30 GMT
mercianAll roads lead to Luton, fortunately they also lead out of it and the airport's handy.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 12, 2023 15:57:26 GMT
This seems a very murky affair "The contract was awarded directly to CTM without competition, and a lawyer with knowledge of the system said the government had pushed a wider deal originally drawn up for official travel “beyond what it was intended to be used for”. Ministers have repeatedly refused to detail the projected cost of Rishi Sunak’s controversial asylum vessels, while insisting they will be cheaper than using hotels that are currently costing £6m a day. Richard Drax, the Conservative MP for South Dorset, said the public “should know how much is being paid” on the barge set-up and said the spending he was aware of so far was “alarmingly high”. |
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2023 16:08:34 GMT
Not really big on football, but would I be correct in suggesting that following the England Lionesses progress to the semi finals, it would be fair to say that across men's and women's football combined, England would probably rank as the strongest international team overall, based on tournament placings? I can't think of another country with each of it's national teams achieving comparable tournament results.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 16:09:14 GMT
From Wednesday's daily mirror. 9% seems far too high.  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 16:09:31 GMT
So after "small boats week" steadily descended into farce, it finally ends in tragedy with six dead. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/12/rescue-operation-boat-capsizes-channelIf only we had a government that was interested in taking real action such as reversing the Osborne cuts to the asylum system and the border force, clearing the asylum backlog and opening up safe routes, rather than bogus "performative" policies like the ludicrous Rwanda scheme. I see this got six likes. While i dont have anything in particular against immigrants and the UK could take millions of them if it chose, its equally true that as a country we would probably be better off reducing our population. Heck, the world would be. The fundamental problem however is if the Uk puts up a sign saying all welcome, then all will come. Not tens of millions but likely hundreds of millions. That is obviously not acceptable. I dont honestly think units of millions of refugees would be acceptable to the public, although that isnt much more than we let in anyway. It still has the problems of needing to massively invest in public resources for them. Which we arent currently willing to do even for people born here.
I notice labour have no solution to this. Its obvious to me the international agreement to accept as many refugees as come is unsustainable in a world with hundreds of millions of people who would qualify. All you have to do to qualify is be one of the 10% of the population who are gay and be born in a country which oppresses this. Or one of the 50% who are female, in a nation which oppresses that.
So either the convention has to go, or we have to change the world so that no one needs to leave their home nation. As to the last, we seem to normaly do the exact opposite and encourage oppressive regimes. Thats because we see national advantage in one or other regime, which we consider outweighs personal happiness of the citizens.
On the other hand, refugees arriving in the UK by unusual routes is not a problem in terms of numbers, and never has been, at least for the last few centuries. Had we not left the EU then it would not be a problem now. The agreement to return people to France would still be in force. This is a problem solely created by Brexit. Any MP who voted for brexit has to acknowledge they created this problem. And that they have no solution. Far from reducing uncontrolled immigration, brexit opened the door to it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 16:13:26 GMT
"Watford man travels 1,650 miles around England by bus
Stephen Chitty, 70, took 117 buses over 40 days to raise about £2,000 for charity Mercy Ships"
To be fair it can take approximately the same time to navigate the Watford ring road.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 16:20:15 GMT
This seems a very murky affair "The contract was awarded directly to CTM without competition, and a lawyer with knowledge of the system said the government had pushed a wider deal originally drawn up for official travel “beyond what it was intended to be used for”. Ministers have repeatedly refused to detail the projected cost of Rishi Sunak’s controversial asylum vessels, while insisting they will be cheaper than using hotels that are currently costing £6m a day. It would not amaze me if con go early for an election. . Although its also possible they have simply given up on any hope of optimising the outcome, just ride the government helicopters to the bitter end. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 16:22:41 GMT
Brexit was an example where they made common cause with working class against the middle class, but in the end con did as they always do and have made things worse for the working class. You keep getting this wrong. Official Tory policy was to Remain and the campaign was led by the then Tory PM. Leave then won and the government presumably felt it had to implement the result. I did not get this wrong. I agree with you con did not want to leave the EU (mostly). But they did want to win an election and were willing to risk leaving the EU so as to win the election. And thats what happened. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 16:23:02 GMT
Well it worked for Putin. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 12, 2023 16:38:22 GMT
I agree. The conservatives are locked into this stop-the-boats, culture-war, anti-woke, Lee Anderson hugging trajectory until the bitter end (likely to be the next election). The current iteration will be smashed, and then the party will have hard questions to face on what it really stands for in a way that's relevant to the public. The brexit at all costs course has run out of fuel. I would imagine many of the traditional conservative will retreat to the shadows, and await what could be done after the imminent car crash. Any chance you could post some sources or polling to support your view? I don't have a crystal ball but here's a YG polling article from a while ago:
Will a focus on immigration help the Conservatives among their key target voting groups?yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/04/05/will-focus-immigration-help-conservatives-among-thShort answer is: Yes, provided they actually deliver (and little sign of that at the moment) I respect there are some people who would never, ever, vote CON (or another specific party) but then why would that party want to become something that someone who would never ever vote for them wouldn't vote for anyway? TBC but if/when CON lose GE'24 then I expect they will 'double down' with someone like Badenoch as leader and that will likely (IMO) ensure Starmer doesn't drift back to the kind of pledges that won him the LAB leader job. Then when Cooper asks France for a 'returns' policy and almost certainly gets the same answer (ie "non") then how will LAB 'Stop the Boats'?
Yvette Cooper: ‘A Labour government will aim to stop all small boat crossings’www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/10/yvette-cooper-labour-government-will-aim-stop-small-boat-crossings/I would hope after the tragedy in the channel today then most people would want to 'stop the boats'. Another representative poll, although from some time ago:
"Britons tend to think the government’s ‘New Plan for Immigration’ policies are fair"yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/06/09/britons-tend-think-governments-new-plan-immigratioThe problem CON have is botching the delivery (and see also polling on most important issues where CON/likely CON rate immigration as a much important issue than LAB/likely LAB). Below is R&Ws tracker on immigration issue and after last week's gong show then I expect that might plumb new lows next week and we might well see more CON'19->RUK VI or DK NB I could repost the drift to the Right articles covering Europe countries and highlight other areas where Starmer-LAB have shifted significantly to the Right/Anti-Woke since Starmer became LAB leader. I respect the Greens are still LoC/Woke and for Danny 's benefit then Green's policy can be found: policy.greenparty.org.uk |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 12, 2023 16:40:21 GMT
For those who can bare to forego the joys of midnight with mercian tonight. The Perseids meteor shower should be entertaining. And what are us day time readers to watch in order to forego the joys of Pain(e)with PJW , Doom with Domjg and Corny with Crossbat ? Play the policy... |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 16:44:35 GMT
Hmm. Except look at the immigrants forming the current conservative government. Immigrants were pro brexit and can be very conservatives. They are also only a minority in cities despite claims to the contrary. In the 2021 census 42.9% of the population of Birmingham was white British. I haven't looked up other obvious candidates such as London, Leicester and Bradford because one example is enough to show that you're just making unevidenced assertions again. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Birmingham#EthnicityThey have an animated pie chart, which suggests that in 2016 Birmingham was about 48% white british. On a steadily falling percentage. About another 2% white Irish, who probably count in outlook as british, and 2% white miscellaneous. Unfortunately the figures do not then go on to enumerate eg asian british, distinguishing asian british immigrant rather than asian british born here. Instead they lump together british born for 100 generations but eg of pakistani derivation, from those who obtained citizenship last year. It rather mixing their apples with their oranges. The referendum results were 1.2 million remain, 1.7 million leave. So....majority immigrant, voted to leave? I might be wrong about being a minority, but immigrants did vote for brexit, seemingly to cut off further immigration. Although if these people were majority asian, then maybe they were voting for less white immigration from the Eu and more from India? |
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2023 16:46:03 GMT
Been interested recently in why so many musicians and entertainers are cancelling gigs, with a variety of 'mystery ailments', while none of them ever say they've got covid related problems. It turns out that brokers are routinely including covid exclusions, so any interruption caused by covid infections won't be covered. Simples!
Having dug around the insurance market it appears that these exclusions are very common in other areas, like wedding and event insurance. One more reason why everyone seems to be complaining of 'summer flu', despite wastewater and hospital monitoring systems picking up zero flu at the moment.
Happy days!
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 12, 2023 16:55:30 GMT
LAB will inherit CON's mess and of course they can blame CON for a lot of it (as would any opposition party in any 'Western' country facing the same problem of 'irregular' immigration), however, as usual then two simples questions will be asked nearer a GE:
1/ Outside of the points based immigration system and existing legal routes then how many immigrants would LAB take in each year?
2/ Where will they be housed (including the ones who are processed faster to clear the backlog) and how much will that cost*?
I very much appreciate people are angry that CON have failed to 'Take Back Control' of our borders. Stoking that anger is perhaps not a wise move from LAB given that they, unlike Greens/LDEM/RUK, will likely form the next HMG and be expected to solve the problem of 'Stop the Boats' (see earlier post that Cooper agrees with Braverman on the need to 'Stop the Boats')
?
* RUK have an opinion on the 'cost' issue and why that is such a 'pull' factor. We have a shortage of Social Housing but could put up UNHCR style tented accommodation fairly quickly - noting the issue of 'queue jumping' by those able to pay a criminal gang/immigration lawyers £thousands to risk the journey to get to UK and then be 'coached' how to be able to get to stay in UK.
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Post by jen on Aug 12, 2023 17:20:48 GMT
mercian "It's very refreshing to have politicians who are blunt and direct rather than all the mealy-mouthed squirming that we get from most of them" You must really admire jen then Didn't know she was a politician. Perhaps she's standing for hall monitor at her school? You make it quite obvious that you don't know much. |
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Post by neilj on Aug 12, 2023 17:27:08 GMT
mercian "It's very refreshing to have politicians who are blunt and direct rather than all the mealy-mouthed squirming that we get from most of them" You must really admire jen then Didn't know she was a politician. Perhaps she's standing for hall monitor at her school? Okay just so I know what you are saying, you only want "politicians who are blunt and direct" but you would prefer everyone else to be "mealy-mouthed"? |
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 12, 2023 17:37:51 GMT
‘ Robbie R’s loss is a terrible blow. We are currently grossing out on “The Last Waltz”.’
Oh dear, that didn’t last! Our old PRO-JECT turntable has given up the ghost!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 18:03:33 GMT
The problem CON have is botching the delivery (and see also polling on most important issues where CON/likely CON rate immigration as a much important issue than LAB/likely LAB). Below is R&Ws tracker on immigration issue and after last week's gong show then I expect that might plumb new lows next week and we might well see more CON'19->RUK VI or DK Absolutely con have botched delivery. They seem to have bought an Arthur Daley boat, potentially at huge expense. Just, cheaper than hotels. They will be seen to have totally failed to prevent more people coming. Its not clear to me why they believe their policy would act as a discouragement, because thus far no one has been removed from the UK, and it seems pretty unlikely any will. If any do, then it still seems likely to be a small number compared to the total, which is no disincentive at all. For a good number of these people living on a barge is still better than where they came from . Most of these people would qualify as refugees, if the government was willing to process their claims, and that is why it has halted processing claims.
However, this is really a rearguard action because a key plank of conservative policy since 2015 has been to end immigration. This has totally and utterly failed, not least because most immigration is allowed or even encouraged by the british government, and they do not want to end it. They never wanted to end it. They cannot end it, because the UK economy relies upon it. About the only aspect of immigration they can crack down on is refugees, and thats why they have made a huge fuss over something which has not to date ever been a problem.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 18:09:33 GMT
Been interested recently in why so many musicians and entertainers are cancelling gigs, with a variety of 'mystery ailments', while none of them ever say they've got covid related problems. It turns out that brokers are routinely including covid exclusions, so any interruption caused by covid infections won't be covered. Simples! Someone was talking about this a few weeks ago and I think I mentioned it. There has been a huge rise in costs for putting on gigs and therefore a doubling of ticket prices is not unsurprising. But tickets shooting up at the same time discretionary spending is plumetting. What would anyone expect to happen? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 18:17:04 GMT
1/ Outside of the points based immigration system and existing legal routes then how many immigrants would LAB take in each year? 2/ Where will they be housed (including the ones who are processed faster to clear the backlog) and how much will that cost*? Given the large numbers allowed in by government compared to the small number of refugees, surely the question should be where will the permitted immigrants live and how will that be paid for? Presumably they will work and pay for accommodation. But this will still increase pressure in general on accommodations, and the cost of this will be born by ordinary people. Plus more pressure on NHS, schools, etc. If we cannot house the refugees, how on earth can we house the rather more people government is deliberately allowing in? |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 12, 2023 18:25:55 GMT
I'm not replying to unsourced replies that don't cover a realistic alternative solution and since I have already mentioned that then I'll go back to hiding/blocking those people (ie I won't waste my time reading those posts so please don't bother to waste your time replying to me unless you provide sources and a realistic alternative plan) WRT to 'clearing the asylum backlog' then some numbers using 'as at end of 2022' since that data is more readily available (obviously the numbers have grown since) Backlog as at end'22: 166,261 cases www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/asylum-backlog#Global average acceptance rate is "about 21%"* "The EU+ recognition rate was 40 % in 2022"** UK's is an outlier with an acceptance rate of 86%*** So an obvious question is "Why is UK's acceptance rate so high"? Anyway, if we tackle the issue of immigration lawyers 'coaching' applicants on how to 'pass' the test then we'd hopefully drop to a more European acceptance rate of 40% 40% x 166,261 = 66,504 (and more than 2x that using the current 'excessively high' acceptance rate) Where is Cooper planning to house those people given we already have a shortage of 'Social Housing'? If we take in additional people from 'new' safe routes (Cooper needs to state how many - but let's assume 50,000?), where will they be housed. That will unlikely deter the people using the now illegal route so we'd likely also get 40,000+ x 40% = 16,000+ per year from 'small boats' unless the deterrents for 'irregular immigrants' to pay criminal gangs are increased. So IMO, an urgent priority is to address the issue of why UK's acceptance rate is far higher than EU+ or global rate. THEN, of course we need to get the backlog down asap as well as doing everything possible to stop more arrivals from the illegal route. THEN, we could and should open up more safe routes (my guess is that is 5yrs+ away and will require a lot more social housing to be built, given the priority should IMO be given to existing UK citizens) NB LAB will inherit the mess and above is to show the scale of the problem and how Cooper's 'virtue signalling' on her plan to 'Stop the Boats' is going to meet harsh reality into/after GE'24. At the moment then the focus is on the mess CON have made of the immigration problem. Into a GE and then once in power the focus will shift to WTF are LAB doing to solve the problem? LAB trying to appeal to CON'19 voters by saying LAB has a better plan to 'Stop the Boats' and end hotel/flotel usage might look like a good tactic now but winning GE'24 with a very broad coalition of voters will mean it will be difficult to keep all those voters happy for long. IF LAB then don't solve the immigration problem then folks will look for a stronger alternative and hence why IMO we need to get this problem sorted asap (and Rwanda and ID cards are two important parts of doing so IMO). * www.worlddata.info/refugees-by-country.php** migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/*** Lots of other useful data such as the large growth in EU+ backlog as well: euaa.europa.eu/latest-asylum-trends-annual-overview-2022PS I dunno if the Rwanda scheme will be a sufficient deterrent. If it doesn't work to at least significantly deter illegal immigration and hopefully make the criminal gangs/immigration lawyers business model unsustainable then I dread to think what measures we'd need to implement to 'Stop the Boats' (eg turning the boats back mid-channel?). The problem is very likely to get worse and hence why IMO we need to sort it asap and 'virtue signalling' ain't gonna cut it. |
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Post by peterbell on Aug 12, 2023 18:48:31 GMT
Batty, condolences re this evening's 5-1 result. However, it could have been a lot worse. If we had achieved double figures you couldn't have complained.
Peter Bell (formally Geordie on this board)
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Post by peterbell on Aug 12, 2023 19:10:46 GMT
Or not. Some “members” can’t be bothered to log in until they’ve got something to say (or a post worth responding to). I always log on otherwise I'd see Trev's posts which is not something I want in my life! I normally follow the board on my lap-top which automatically logs on. However if I am in the study using my desk-top, it does not automatically log-on. I then come across a Trev post and so have to shut down and open again after logging on. It is well worth the extra effort. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 19:24:49 GMT
The Kerch bridge despite Russian propaganda appears to have been hit by Ukrainian missiles three or four times. This is the major supply route for the war criminals in South Ukraine. youtu.be/PuMVfykEPYg |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 19:26:03 GMT
Just been watching the ch4 dramatisation of the murder of Rachel Nickell in 1992. This was investigated by the metropolitain police, who as with the Andrew Malkinson conviction for rape by Manchester police, seem to have decided who they believed was guilty and set out to create evidence which would ensure a conviction. In this case they ordered a policewoman to ingratiate herself as the girlfriend of the suspect, promising him a relationship if he could demonstrate a sufficiently sadistic sexual apetite with women and admit to the muder. In the process he apologised to her that he had not commited the murder and hoped that would not be a bar to a relationship, but she essentially invited him to fulfil her pretended sexual apetites and he filled in by inventing fantasies to satsify her, including admitting to a murder as a child for which the police could find no actual evidence any such had ever happened. Despite this, the police proceeded to arrest him and he was imprisoned for 14 months on remand. At trial the judge threw out the evidence of the undercover policewoman on the grounds it was wholly entrapment and a combination of blackmail and bribery to try to persuade him to confess. Police stressed a description the suspect had made of how the murder victim had been found, which they argued could not have been so accurate unless he had been there. The judge in dismissing the evidence concluded however that the description was not nearly as precise as the police maintained, and indeed they had stressed details which were simply wrong compared to the contemporary photos. The suspect eventually received £700,000 compensation for his treatment, but not untill 2008 when, as with Malkinson, DNA evidence had eventually proven a connection to another man, by then permanently incarcerated in Broadmore mental hospital who had eventually been found to have assaulted more than 100 women and had been convicted of killing another 16 months after Rachel in a rather similar case which however the police denied could be related. The police woman concerned took early retirement in 1998, and herself eventually received compensation of £125,000 from the metropolitain police. The victims son in comparison receved £22,000 compensation from the criminal injuries compensation nboard (he was assauted at the same time his mother was killed). The officer in charge of the case took early retirement after the trial collapsed, and criminal charges against him were dismissed also for lack of evidence. An investigation in 2010 into the failure to detect the real perpetrator despite various past leads about his succession of attacks concluded there was no disciplinary action possible against police involved because all had retired and one was dead.
The real point bout both these cases is that innocent people were hugely persecuted and punished for something they did not do. And the reason for this was the police concluding they should be convicted for the crime. They only eventually received recompense because they could cast iron prove they were not guilty. And the only reason this happened is because the police concerned were caught out by new technology which could prove their, what you might optimisitcally call mistakes, or pessimistically call self advancement because they needed to convict someone, anyone, to benefit their own careers.
In this respect they are really no different to the current government. Which gave us brexit despite knowing it was the wrong thing for the Uk to do, just to get into power.
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