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Post by catmanjeff on Aug 12, 2023 8:30:05 GMT
I agree. The conservatives are locked into this stop-the-boats, culture-war, anti-woke, Lee Anderson hugging trajectory until the bitter end (likely to be the next election). The current iteration will be smashed, and then the party will have hard questions to face on what it really stands for in a way that's relevant to the public. The brexit at all costs course has run out of fuel. I would imagine many of the traditional conservative will retreat to the shadows, and await what could be done after the imminent car crash. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 8:32:26 GMT
With news that Harry Kane is transferring to Bayern Munich for a gazillion euros I thought I would mention the big transfer news at the Hatters
THE former Everton, Chelsea and England midfield star Ross Barkley has been unveiled as Luton Town’s newest .Barkley is just 29 and played for England 33 times.
He is of course signing on a free transfer.☺
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 8:41:10 GMT
crossbat11When I was visiting my father as a teenager he used to live in a 17th century farm house, it was a lovely place and I learned to drive a tractor at the next door farm ( home incidentally to one of Ed Davey's recent election stunts.) What I found highly amusing was after having a few pils larger bottles of an evening you could actually have a bottle race across the bedroom floor as one side was at least three inches higher than the other.You had to make your own entertainment in the 1970's. Despite the property being listed because it was owned by the department of transport they knocked it down it now features as the car park at the McDonald's on the Hemel bypass.
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 8:42:38 GMT
Apologies to all I just let Danny know we've moved.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 12, 2023 8:47:17 GMT
With news that Harry Kane is transferring to Bayern Munich for a gazillion euros I thought I would mention the big transfer news at the Hatters THE former Everton, Chelsea and England midfield star Ross Barkley has been unveiled as Luton Town’s newest .Barkley is just 29 and played for England 33 times. He is of course signing on a free transfer.☺ I think they paid too much 😀 |
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Post by chrisc on Aug 12, 2023 8:52:22 GMT
Just finished watching the 1984 film of '1984' by Orwell. Very powerful. Obviously I identified with Winston Smith (played by John Hurt). Of course there are differences with our world, notably the internet which allows the possibility for oppressed people everywhere to see other viewpoints, but the ideas of groupthink, thoughtcrime and so on really resonate with our current society. "How many fingers am I holding up?" I will ALWAYS say 4! ----------------------- As a sidenote when I last logged on I think there were no members and 8 guests. Now there is 1 member (me) and 16 guests. Big Brother is watching us folks! Oo-er. Or not. Some “members” can’t be bothered to log in until they’ve got something to say (or a post worth responding to). |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2023 8:54:03 GMT
With news that Harry Kane is transferring to Bayern Munich for a gazillion euros I thought I would mention the big transfer news at the Hatters THE former Everton, Chelsea and England midfield star Ross Barkley has been unveiled as Luton Town’s newest .Barkley is just 29 and played for England 33 times. He is of course signing on a free transfer.☺ We had him on loan at the Villa for a year during the pandemic empty stadium season. Talented player who started well but then drifted into mediocrity; a pattern wherever he's played. He adopted the role of Jack Grealish's drinking mate by the end. His most memorable impact on a game tended to be his kicking over of the drinks bottles crate whenever he was subbed off, usually after about 60 minutes. I hope the Hatters rediscover the inner very talented Ross Barkley. It's in there somewhere but, as they say in football, he's a troubled boy . |
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Post by EmCat on Aug 12, 2023 9:02:10 GMT
mercian I think you might be on to something about the change in the "typical Tory voter" demographic, though you may be wrong in the particular characteristic. Yesterday, I happened to read one of Ben Ansell's pieces (written last November) about whether the Conservatives were in a death spiral because their appeal was becoming more limited to particular groups benansell.substack.com/p/are-the-conservatives-in-a-deathAnsell's proposition is that it is not just education, but also age and housing that are factors in support. On education, then it does appear that the higher the level of education, the less inclined people are to vote Conservative substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a60cfd3-3f31-40e7-b788-32573f1289d4_2058x2108.png Add in age, though, and the level of qualification matters less: under 50s are, regardless of age, veering away from them substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48c7ec97-e90a-4f6e-b1d0-61e08715b8cd_2058x2108.png Whereas for those over 50, it is the education level that differentiates (as you postulated) substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c946b3c-fc26-4841-955b-eabecee252bd_2058x2108.png Ansell also adds in housing - those who own their homes outright are more likely to be Conservative voters. His conclusion is worth quoting: "the Conservative Party is increasingly reliant on an older, lower-education, lower-income group of voters who own their houses outright. Aka pensioners. ... But it likely means future electoral doom unless they can pivot back to some of their previous high-income, high-education, mortgage-holding voters. You know, yuppies. Or centrist dads. Boris Johnson created a phenomenon electoral coalition. But it has withered and all that’s left is retirees. There are many many retirees out there so the Conservatives are not entirely doomed. But it’s not the ideal basis for a future electoral strategy. During Boris Johnson’s era in power lots of people made a series of ‘emperor’s new clothes’ style arguments that he would get found out and be forced into some kind of embarrassing perp walk. But the real emperor’s new clothes may have been getting rid of Boris Johnson and discovering that without the hirsute blond wig and untucked shirt, the naked Conservative Party underneath lacks a coalition large enough to win elections today and, even worse, faces wipe-out in a decade unless it changes. Which, and here’s the good news for them, if history is anything to go by, it will."
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 12, 2023 9:04:54 GMT
“… meeting to vote that the canteen should not serve Chilean coffee …”
Back in 1982 me and the missus (oops, sorry, pjw) were doing the weekly shop down Queens Road Market. Our favourite greengrocer proudly showed us that instead of the despised South African grapes, he had some fine plump Chilean ones. When we waved them away, the poor guy raised his hands in despair, saying “but they’re on our side!!!”.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 9:10:52 GMT
Just finished watching the 1984 film of '1984' by Orwell. Very powerful. Obviously I identified with Winston Smith (played by John Hurt). Of course there are differences with our world, notably the internet which allows the possibility for oppressed people everywhere to see other viewpoints, but the ideas of groupthink, thoughtcrime and so on really resonate with our current society. "How many fingers am I holding up?" I will ALWAYS say 4! ----------------------- As a sidenote when I last logged on I think there were no members and 8 guests. Now there is 1 member (me) and 16 guests. Big Brother is watching us folks! Oo-er. Or not. Some “members” can’t be bothered to log in until they’ve got something to say (or a post worth responding to). If we all took that attitude there would be very little on here  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 9:19:35 GMT
I agree. The conservatives are locked into this stop-the-boats, culture-war, anti-woke, Lee Anderson hugging trajectory until the bitter end (likely to be the next election). The current iteration will be smashed, and then the party will have hard questions to face on what it really stands for in a way that's relevant to the public. The brexit at all costs course has run out of fuel. I would imagine many of the traditional conservative will retreat to the shadows, and await what could be done after the imminent car crash. The trouble for the Tories with going after the 'Alf Garnett' vote is that it can backfire. I was talking to one of my right wing in-laws the other day and he was telling me how much he hates Rishi Sunak. Primary reasons were his role in overthrowing their beloved 'Boris' and that he is too posh to understand ordinary people, but also, apparently, he is committing the sin of trying to make beer weaker and so preventing an Englishman enjoying his pint. His final remark was he wished that Sunak "would go back to India". I didn't bother pointing out that Sunak was born in Southampton. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 9:20:11 GMT
Scotland is a much smaller polity but it is fair to say that CON HMG (for England) are making a political choice. Scot.Gov made a choice and raised taxes to fund the £1billion uplift in NHS Scotland funding. Higher and Top Rate of income tax in Scotland will be 2p more than in England (and Wales*).
and whilst Scot.Gov made a choice for this year then BMA Scotland will be back...The settlement in Scotland presumably recognises that funding the NHS in Scotland is still largely in the hands of the westminster parliament, which provides grant funding based upon how much it is providing to English NHS. Scotland showed willing in adding what it could, and scottish doctors agreed it had fairly contributed so stopped striking. Their grievance is with Westminster, not the scottish parliament. Doctors have a very very good case for better treatment, not least because they have real options to depart this country and work abroad in decently run english speaking countries like US or Australia. A Pakistani doctor was interviewed yesterday saying while the wages are much better here, so also the cost of living is vastly more than back home. It isnt just our doctors departing, but our inability to attract in others from abroad, which the NHS has always relied upon for staffing. The NHS has a fundamental problem that its wages overall have become too low and unattractive. That is government policy. Thats fine, if you dont mind there not being enough doctors or nurses. If you do mind, then time to change government. |
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 9:21:39 GMT
“… meeting to vote that the canteen should not serve Chilean coffee …” Back in 1982 me and the missus (oops, sorry, pjw) were doing the weekly shop down Queens Road Market. Our favourite greengrocer proudly showed us that instead of the despised South African grapes, he had some fine plump Chilean ones. When we waved them away, the poor guy raised his hands in despair, saying “but they’re on our side!!!”. Why? Do I know her? |
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 12, 2023 9:31:39 GMT
“… meeting to vote that the canteen should not serve Chilean coffee …” Back in 1982 me and the missus (oops, sorry, pjw) were doing the weekly shop down Queens Road Market. Our favourite greengrocer proudly showed us that instead of the despised South African grapes, he had some fine plump Chilean ones. When we waved them away, the poor guy raised his hands in despair, saying “but they’re on our side!!!”. Actually bits of that are probably incredibly obscure. South African grapes despised because of apartheid; Chilean ones waved away because of Pinochet’s brutal coup d’etat against Salvador Allende’s government; “on our side” was Pinochet backing Thatcher in the Falklands war. Phew. Rotten when you feel you have to explain your own jokes because they are so old. Oh, and apols to pjw1961 because of his jocular ribbing (on an old thread!) about my poor grammar. |
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 9:36:14 GMT
To sum it up, is the Tory party becoming the party of the working class largely run by toffs, while Labour are becoming the middle class party? It's more complicated than that obviously because there are many other parties of greater or lesser significance (and I'm talking primarily about England) but it's food for thought. I'd be interested in others' views. Labour does seem to have become the middle class party. Labour began in order to represent the working class, unlike the then alternative to con which was the libs representing the middle class. The working class has largely disappeared in the form it existed then, so lab now has become what the libs were then. Which also accounts for the libs split personality, that they did once represent the middle, but that territory has been taken by lab. Except that in some ways it has not. The libs are still the real challenger in some ways to lab in the next election. Cons are defecting to libs rather than lab where they can. They will take seats lab are unable to. Nor is there any evidence voters have much enthusiasm for labour. I dont see much evidence con have become the party of the working class. Its certainly true they have always paid lip service to this. But its also true they shaft the true working class at every opportunity they get. Brexit was an example where they made common cause with working class against the middle class, but in the end con did as they always do and have made things worse for the working class. At conferences they ought to sing, 'The rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate. God made them high and lowly, and ordered their estate'. They wont, but it summarises nicely conservative thinking.
If we go back to the grammar/comprehensive education wars, we see nicely how this divide can materialise. Many middle class were beneficiaries of grammar elite education. Con still tend to support it, lab abolished it. The con offer is riches for the few, the lab offer is modest affluence for the many without the extremes of rich and poor. In this you can see the conservatives 'hook', if they can get enough of the poor to believe they will win the lottery and become one of those few very rich.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 12, 2023 9:43:11 GMT
I agree. The conservatives are locked into this stop-the-boats, culture-war, anti-woke, Lee Anderson hugging trajectory until the bitter end (likely to be the next election). The current iteration will be smashed, and then the party will have hard questions to face on what it really stands for in a way that's relevant to the public. The brexit at all costs course has run out of fuel. I would imagine many of the traditional conservative will retreat to the shadows, and await what could be done after the imminent car crash. The trouble for the Tories with going after the 'Alf Garnett' vote is that it can backfire. I was talking to one of my right wing in-laws the other day and he was telling me how much he hates Rishi Sunak. Primary reasons were his role in overthrowing their beloved 'Boris' and that he is too posh to understand ordinary people, but also, apparently, he is committing the sin of trying to make beer weaker and so preventing an Englishman enjoying his pint. His final remark was he wished that Sunak "would go back to India". I didn't bother pointing out that Sunak was born in Southampton. OMG I thought some of my relatives were bad but I couldn't interact someone like that without telling them exactly what I thought. My in-laws are all impeccably liberal and enlightened, including my octenagarian mother in law. It's my side of the family that are problematic alas! |
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 9:47:44 GMT
MarkThanks for the thoughtful reply. Yes you've identified several interesting issues. 1) Big cities becoming more Labour. That's particularly inner cities where recent immigrants and their descendants tend to be, so that's a complicating issue on top of the class/education theory. Hmm. Except look at the immigrants forming the current conservative government. Immigrants were pro brexit and can be very conservatives. They are also only a minority in cities despite claims to the contrary. The majority of indigenous people are what make up the labour stronghold. They are adapted to the presence of immigrants and comfortable with it. The immigrants themselves seem to be fearful of changes caused by more immigrants and want to preserve the status quo. We had a recent debate on education where some argued that the drive in education has been towards making people think for themselves and away from rote learning, including rote learning from your parents class. If someone from the right did think as you suggest, then it might explain how they have come to shoot themselves in the foot by encouraging free thinking. Or Nigel Farage. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 12, 2023 9:49:57 GMT
Just finished watching the 1984 film of '1984' by Orwell. Very powerful. Obviously I identified with Winston Smith (played by John Hurt). Of course there are differences with our world, notably the internet which allows the possibility for oppressed people everywhere to see other viewpoints, but the ideas of groupthink, thoughtcrime and so on really resonate with our current society. "How many fingers am I holding up?" I will ALWAYS say 4! ----------------------- As a sidenote when I last logged on I think there were no members and 8 guests. Now there is 1 member (me) and 16 guests. Big Brother is watching us folks! Oo-er. Or not. Some “members” can’t be bothered to log in until they’ve got something to say (or a post worth responding to). I always log on otherwise I'd see Trev's posts which is not something I want in my life! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2023 9:55:51 GMT
I agree. The conservatives are locked into this stop-the-boats, culture-war, anti-woke, Lee Anderson hugging trajectory until the bitter end (likely to be the next election). The current iteration will be smashed, and then the party will have hard questions to face on what it really stands for in a way that's relevant to the public. The brexit at all costs course has run out of fuel. I would imagine many of the traditional conservative will retreat to the shadows, and await what could be done after the imminent car crash. The trouble for the Tories with going after the 'Alf Garnett' vote is that it can backfire. I was talking to one of my right wing in-laws the other day and he was telling me how much he hates Rishi Sunak. Primary reasons were his role in overthrowing their beloved 'Boris' and that he is too posh to understand ordinary people, but also, apparently, he is committing the sin of trying to make beer weaker and so preventing an Englishman enjoying his pint. His final remark was he wished that Sunak "would go back to India". I didn't bother pointing out that Sunak was born in Southampton. One of the problems with personality cults in politics is that they tend to translate into hero worship and unconditional love. Zeal and fanaticism too. He who slays the hero is never to be forgiven and becomes the mortal enemy. Rationality and nuance has no place in cultism. True and unquestioning believers only gain entry. Johnson, Trump, Corbyn.....the list goes on. When personality cults eat into a political party they can have devastating and damaging effects. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2023 9:58:58 GMT
impeccably liberal and enlightened, What a wonderful phrase.A word order positively dripping with smugness and conceit. If Starmer can stay clear of this Emily Thornbury tendency and follow the TBI playbook of Government, then I think he has a chance of doing fundamental damage to Tory VI. There is a consistent 20% ish DKs in the Con19/Leave/Over 50s demographics. Most of my age similar friends who chat about politics anticipate two Labour terms without saying how they will vote themselves. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 10:00:31 GMT
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Post by domjg on Aug 12, 2023 10:04:06 GMT
impeccably liberal and enlightened, What a wonderful phrase.A word order positively dripping with smugness and conceit. If Starmer can stay clear of this Emily Thornbury tendency and follow the TBI playbook of Government, then I think he has a chance of doing fundamental damage to Tory VI. There is a consistent 20% ish DKs in the Con19/Leave/Over 50s demographics. Most of my age similar friends who chat about politics anticipate two Labour terms without saying how they will vote themselves. Hope you're having a nice relaxing weekend too Colin. I guess the tongue in cheek was a bit too subtle. |
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 12, 2023 10:04:41 GMT
Well done, Matildas!!! Incredible!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2023 10:04:46 GMT
No sign of jimjam for a couple of weeks. On holiday perhaps ? Or in a dark room somewhere trying to persuade himself to be optimistic about the next GE. Would like to hear your view of things jimjam if you still have time for this place. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 10:08:10 GMT
On education, then it does appear that the higher the level of education, the less inclined people are to vote Conservative substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a60cfd3-3f31-40e7-b788-32573f1289d4_2058x2108.png Add in age, though, and the level of qualification matters less: under 50s are, regardless of age, veering away from them substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48c7ec97-e90a-4f6e-b1d0-61e08715b8cd_2058x2108.png So possibly its nothing really to do with education, except that those going on to higher education were exposed earlier to changes happening to society. But now this has spread through the entire youth cohort. Arguably this was already true in 2010. Con needed a cause to whip up more voters if they were ever to win again, and they chose first anti-EU steps and then full on brexit. Which had the plus of winning them another 10% or so of voters, but has led to yet more alienation of traditional moderate and free market tories. Even of protectionist tories, who however took a similar line that the EU was a good compromise of an internal free market with external major protections. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2023 10:13:54 GMT
What a wonderful phrase.A word order positively dripping with smugness and conceit. If Starmer can stay clear of this Emily Thornbury tendency and follow the TBI playbook of Government, then I think he has a chance of doing fundamental damage to Tory VI. There is a consistent 20% ish DKs in the Con19/Leave/Over 50s demographics. Most of my age similar friends who chat about politics anticipate two Labour terms without saying how they will vote themselves. Hope you're having a nice relaxing weekend too Colin. I guess the tongue in cheek was a bit too subtle. It was a reference to your phrase-not your intent. When it comes to pompous social class consciousness and a sense of moral superiority , loc middle class academia and its hinterland are in a .....class.....of their own. Yes-good thanks. Wisley yesterday with grand children-the Working Class Lionesses in a few minutes. Come on You Gels.  |
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2023 11:31:41 GMT
With news that Harry Kane is transferring to Bayern Munich for a gazillion euros I thought I would mention the big transfer news at the Hatters THE former Everton, Chelsea and England midfield star Ross Barkley has been unveiled as Luton Town’s newest .Barkley is just 29 and played for England 33 times. He is of course signing on a free transfer.☺ Very glad about that. I was worried he was coming back to us. A talented player who lost his way. He left Liverpool under a bit of a cloud. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 12, 2023 12:08:25 GMT
England 2-1 up now
20 minutes to go
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 12, 2023 12:18:37 GMT
… One other point not directly related. I like Lee Anderson because he actually says what he thinks, but I also liked Dennis Skinner for exactly the same reason. It's very refreshing to have politicians who are blunt and direct rather than all the mealy-mouthed squirming that we get from most of them. Whether I agree with them or not. And steve as well, of course! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 12, 2023 12:26:24 GMT
mercian"It's very refreshing to have politicians who are blunt and direct rather than all the mealy-mouthed squirming that we get from most of them" You must really admire jen then
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