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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2023 19:42:19 GMT
As I think I said a bit earlier on the previous thread, I'm greatly looking forward to football season starting next weekend.
Can't wait, in fact.
🤔🤣🦁
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Post by shevii on Aug 12, 2023 19:58:49 GMT
crossbat11Good day's football all round I think. Thought Wigan were a bit arrogant giving all the other teams in League One an 8 point start but seems to be going according to plan.
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 20:09:11 GMT
Didn't know she was a politician. Perhaps she's standing for hall monitor at her school? Okay just so I know what you are saying, you only want "politicians who are blunt and direct" but you would prefer everyone else to be "mealy-mouthed"? I know you're just winding me up, but of course I like people to be direct if only because I'm no good at picking up hints. There is a difference between that and gratuitous abuse though. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 20:14:54 GMT
However, this is really a rearguard action because a key plank of conservative policy since 2015 has been to end immigration. This has totally and utterly failed, not least because most immigration is allowed or even encouraged by the british government, and they do not want to end it. They never wanted to end it.
Do you ever read what you write before you post it? Your first sentence directly contradicts the next two. Who do you think has been in government since 2015? The Diddy Men? (And yes I know some people will say they might as well have been). 😁 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2023 20:16:03 GMT
Batty, condolences re this evening's 5-1 result. However, it could have been a lot worse. If we had achieved double figures you couldn't have complained. Peter Bell (formally Geordie on this board) What nationality are you now Peter? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 20:20:18 GMT
The Kerch bridge despite Russian propaganda appears to have been hit by Ukrainian missiles three or four times. This is the major supply route for the war criminals in South Ukraine. youtu.be/PuMVfykEPYgHmm. If the Ukrainians had the capability to attack the bridge regularly, then I presume they would because it is key infrastructure. It would already be a pile of rubble. That they are inflicting damage on it at this moment suggests there is a strategic purpose to it being out of action right now. We are already more than half way through the year and I presume winter fighting would be difficult, so if there is an ability to shape a timetable, then the next few months look like the best time for any decisive action this years. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2023 20:26:14 GMT
However, this is really a rearguard action because a key plank of conservative policy since 2015 has been to end immigration. This has totally and utterly failed, not least because most immigration is allowed or even encouraged by the british government, and they do not want to end it. They never wanted to end it.
Do you ever read what you write before you post it? Your first sentence directly contradicts the next two. Who do you think has been in government since 2015? The Diddy Men? (And yes I know some people will say they might as well have been). 😁 I am aware it is a contradiction to have policies both of ending immigration and encouraging it. However that is not my mistake, it is the position of the Uk government.
And I am sure they are perfectly aware of the contradictions. They just dont like to highlight them. The reason they like to talk about refugees is because even though its a small proportion of people coming here, it is the only bit they actually want to end.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 12, 2023 20:38:47 GMT
Okay just so I know what you are saying, you only want "politicians who are blunt and direct" but you would prefer everyone else to be "mealy-mouthed"? I know you're just winding me up, but of course I like people to be direct if only because I'm no good at picking up hints. There is a difference between that and gratuitous abuse though. Good we agree, that is why I have such a dislike for Lee Anderson and his gratuitous abuse His latest "fuck back off to France " surely fits that description? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 21:12:37 GMT
Some thoughts on the so called "small boats crisis", specifically not replying to a certain other poster who seems to believe he can dictate to others how they should go about posting.
(a) Endlessly banging on about immigration is, of course, a Tory agenda designed to get people to talk about anything other than their catastrophic economic incompetence. Polling is clear that voters place economic issues at the top of their concerns, with immigration well down, despite all the publicity. This strategy is not working as the Tories are also incompetent on the immigration issue.
(b) the appearance of small boats in the channel and the people smugglers whole economic model is entirely the result of Tory immigration policy and if you wanted to you could end small boats and the people smugglers business tomorrow. If you said to people that they could buy a much cheaper (and safer) ticket on a ferry or scheduled flight and come to the UK, the incentive to pay a small fortune to a smuggler to undertake a dangerous journey would instantly vanish*. Therefore the idea this is a difficult technical problem is compete nonsense; the issue is entirely political and administrative (see c).
(c) In a functioning immigration and asylum system, as the asylum seekers and work seekers arrived by boat and plane they would be swiftly processed by a well staffed and organised border service (not 'force'). As official stats confirm, most asylum seekers will be found to be genuine. Those that are not, together with economic migrants, would be assessed for the skills they possess and if they match the many areas in the UK where there are significant staffing shortages they could be given leave to remain to work for a period (6 months, a year, etc.). Again the evidence from the EU freedom of movement days is that many people who come to work only stay for relatively short periods, although others do settle and become productive members of society.
The problem with part (c) is that Osborne butchered the asylum and immigration system as part of the "austerity" destruction of state capacity, and it would take time to rebuild it. Oddly enough, immigrants could make excellent recruits to an expanded border service, given the many useful language skills they will possess.
(d) arrivals who are neither legitimate asylum seekers nor meet the criteria to work would have to return to their country of origin or most recent residence, but given they have not been found to be in danger that is not a moral issue.
Could such a sane and sensible policy be enacted in the UK? - probably not given the power of the right wing press, who are happy to stir up racism for political advantage, and the existence of political parties who are similarly happy to feed off that. So we will doubtless carry on with the same narrative that is doomed to inevitable failure.
*There may be a tiny number of known criminals with arrest warrants outstanding, etc., who still might wish to be smuggled in - but we are talking very small numbers, as even most criminals are not in that position. Neither asylum seekers nor economic migrants would have any incentive to use smugglers if they could enter easily by cheaper, safer routes.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 12, 2023 21:15:23 GMT
OK. I know this report is from the Telegraph, but is it correct?
(What is meant by "the country", I wonder - UK, GB, England, the non-urban bits of England/GB/UK? Without context it's a really stupid descriptor)
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 21:17:00 GMT
neilj Not in my view. It was perhaps an unnecessarily crude way of putting the sentiment, but that phrase is a pretty common usage to mean 'go'. I've heard people say things like "Let's f off from this place and go to the Rose and Crown." If however he had said 'F off' directly to someone then that would have been abusive (unless it was banter between friends of course). However I accept that views may well differ on this, but at least until the 11th edition of the Newspeak dictionary comes out that is still possible.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 21:25:09 GMT
OK. I know this report is from the Telegraph, but is it correct?
(What is meant by "the country", I wonder - UK, GB, England, the non-urban bits of England/GB/UK? Without context it's a really stupid descriptor) So Starmer has caught up with my preferred choice for Labour leader, Andy Burnham, who dropped the Manchester one in February 2022. The linked Guardian article is worth a read as it deals with the problem of these schemes in terms of who ends up paying, and what a better, fairer alternative might be. www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/andy-burnham-clean-air-manchester-ulez-caz |
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2023 21:35:07 GMT
Lots of small but significant movement from Ukraine. It appears that there has been a substantial advance on the southern front, with Ukr forces claiming to have advanced c 16km. This evening there is footage showing Ukr troops inside Robotyne, which appears to confirm these claims. In the west, it's now clear that a bridgehead has been established south of the Dnipro river, but the earlier bridgehead has pushed further south, crossing the Konka River, which I think is the first time Ukr has managed this. Russian sources are sounding alarmed at this, and there appears to be a rapid deployment of reserves to try and plug the gaps. There are claims that Russia has no mechanised armour in that area. And today the striking of the Kerch bridge will likely be a further act of disruption. In the north, the situation in less clear. Ukr have made gains south of Bakhmut, and are understood to hold the high ground overlooking the town, making it very difficult for the Russians. But further north, Russia have been making gains in the Kharkiv region, presumably part of an offensive aimed at diverting Ukr resources. But overall, te pace of gains for Ukr appears to be picking up, although these are spread across multiple areas, rather than showing as a single major advance. The various predictions of a period of attrition of logistics followed by some more rapid advances is still being touted by some observers who have been generally accurate in their previous predictions, and there is a chance that we are starting to enter the phase of more rapid movement that some have predicted.
Edit: worth noting on the Kerch bridge; it has been closed to traffic for a period today, reopened and then close again. The images of smoke need to be treated with caution. Part of Russian defence are smoke machines designed to shroud the bridge from optical sensors, so lots of smoke doesn't mean lots of impacts. However, some of the smoke plumes today seemed to be larger and higher than the machines apparently produce, suggesting there have been some strikes.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 12, 2023 21:35:55 GMT
OK. I know this report is from the Telegraph, but is it correct?
(What is meant by "the country", I wonder - UK, GB, England, the non-urban bits of England/GB/UK? Without context it's a really stupid descriptor) So Starmer has caught up with my preferred choice for Labour leader, Andy Burnham, who dropped the Manchester one in February 2022. The linked Guardian article is worth a read as it deals with the problem of these schemes in terms of who ends up paying, and what a better, fairer alternative might be. www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/andy-burnham-clean-air-manchester-ulez-caz
That sounds very much like an uncosted policy to me, which Starmer/Reeves say they won't make - so not just U-turns but a series of Z-bends. |
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Post by peterbell on Aug 12, 2023 21:42:34 GMT
Batty, condolences re this evening's 5-1 result. However, it could have been a lot worse. If we had achieved double figures you couldn't have complained. Peter Bell (formally Geordie on this board) What nationality are you now Peter? Born, bred and still at 76 a Geordie |
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eor
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Post by eor on Aug 12, 2023 21:48:13 GMT
steve (and oldnat who raised it earlier) - on whether the 14th Amendment could be used to prevent Trump standing; It's an intriguing idea, and the one thing we can say for certain about a situation as unprecedented as Trump's is that no-one can be certain what the ultimate legal crux will turn out to be. ie unless he withdraws, is defeated in the primaries or is facing a general election he clearly can't win, then it seems likely that in some way his eligibility will be challenged in court, either by him seeking to assert his right to continue or by others seeking to disbar him. But what point of law such a case would come down to is close to guesswork at this stage. The only specific caution I'd add is that whilst it's perfectly fair to point out how qualified the chaps proposing this 14th Amendment idea are, if one had the time it would likely make quite a challenging parlour game to come up with any legal theory, either for or against Trump, however wild or flimsy, that isn't supported by two well-credentialed professors somewhere 
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 12, 2023 21:53:26 GMT
steve (and oldnat who raised it earlier) - on whether the 14th Amendment could be used to prevent Trump standing; It's an intriguing idea, and the one thing we can say for certain about a situation as unprecedented as Trump's is that no-one can be certain what the ultimate legal crux will turn out to be. ie unless he withdraws, is defeated in the primaries or is facing a general election he clearly can't win, then it seems likely that in some way his eligibility will be challenged in court, either by him seeking to assert his right to continue or by others seeking to disbar him. But what point of law such a case would come down to is close to guesswork at this stage. The only specific caution I'd add is that whilst it's perfectly fair to point out how qualified the chaps proposing this 14th Amendment idea are, if one had the time it would likely make quite a challenging parlour game to come up with any legal theory, either for or against Trump, however wild or flimsy, that isn't supported by two well-credentialed professors somewhere |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 22:31:21 GMT
So the Telegraph has it wrong? I'm not surprised. You're telling me that Starmer wants to end all Clean Air Zones (in England, presumably) and not just ULEZs. And he wants the government that funds English local authorities to pick up the costs, and not those authorities?
That sounds very much like an uncosted policy to me, which Starmer/Reeves say they won't make - so not just U-turns but a series of Z-bends. I certainly didn't say any of that. I know no more than what is in the press (Telegraph and Mail so far). The Mail's article suggests that what as occurred is a pro-CAZ paragraph has been removed from Labour's 84 page Transport strategy. My point was more that before the usual round of Starmer bashing starts, an indisputably centre-left figure like Burnham also has his doubts - and with given reasons. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12400991/Sir-Keir-Starmer-junks-pledge-role-clean-air-zones-UK-disastrous-public-response-Sadiq-Khans-hated-Ulez-scheme-London.html |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 12, 2023 22:53:50 GMT
Bizarre story on the Wagner mercenaries. According to Gazeta Wyborcza recruitment posters and stickers for them have been appearing in Warsaw and Krakow with a QR code leading to a Russian language website. A bearded man wearing a Newcastle shirt was apparently observed putting some up in Warsaw. I can't think of any European country where they'd be less likely to have success than Poland. Germany might make sense with it's not insignificant population of Russlanddeutsche, people of nominally German ethnicity who were settled deep in Russia/central Asia in the 19th century, who came to Germany after 1991 and whose loyalties have always been suspect, but Poland? There is no more anti Russian country on earth I'd say. Apart from Ukraine that is. warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30071069,naklejki-grupy-wagnera-w-warszawie-policja-obserwujemy-uspokajamy.html#S.TD-K.C-B.1-L.2.duzy |
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eor
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Post by eor on Aug 12, 2023 22:58:46 GMT
steve (and oldnat who raised it earlier) - on whether the 14th Amendment could be used to prevent Trump standing; It's an intriguing idea, and the one thing we can say for certain about a situation as unprecedented as Trump's is that no-one can be certain what the ultimate legal crux will turn out to be. ie unless he withdraws, is defeated in the primaries or is facing a general election he clearly can't win, then it seems likely that in some way his eligibility will be challenged in court, either by him seeking to assert his right to continue or by others seeking to disbar him. But what point of law such a case would come down to is close to guesswork at this stage. The only specific caution I'd add is that whilst it's perfectly fair to point out how qualified the chaps proposing this 14th Amendment idea are, if one had the time it would likely make quite a challenging parlour game to come up with any legal theory, either for or against Trump, however wild or flimsy, that isn't supported by two well-credentialed professors somewhere Heh I'm not so sure on that. Judges get picked (by both sides) for their ideology but once they're there, especially in the case of the Supreme Court, they owe no fealty. So I think it would depend a lot on what that point of law turns out to be. If the case is essentially that either Congress or an agency of the Federal Government is trying to say that they can disbar Trump from standing, yes I wouldn't be at all surprised if SCOTUS told them to seek asylum in France (to borrow the current parlance). Politicians and their quango appointees inventing powers they don't have a legal basis to wield is something this Court is clearly going to put a really high threshold against. If the case is essentially that the Republican Party wants to disqualify Trump on some procedural grounds he finds awfully unfair (like being in jail) I suspect this Court would shrug and say it's a matter for the Republican Party not the courts. If it were to be on something like your 14th Amendment issue, and the legal basis of that had been at least plausible enough for the case to get as far as SCOTUS, then... I'm not sure it would go the way you think. This Court is fond of strict and literal interpretations, even where the passage of time has seen a different interpretation adopted by consensus or precedent. That's partly why I referred to the idea as "intriguing" earlier - even if Trump's lawyers argued that this provision was obsolete as it was clearly meant to disbar Confederate leaders from being elected in the years after the Civil War, I suspect this Court (that Trump has had such a strong hand in shaping) would have no truck with that - if it's written in the Constitution then it's the law. Hoist by his own petard in the grandest way possible. On the other hand, if the crux is whether whatever he gets convicted of qualifies as insurrection or not, or it's a procedural issue like whether he can be disbarred on the basis of a lower court verdict and before the appeals process has been completed, god knows. |
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eor
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Post by eor on Aug 12, 2023 23:03:38 GMT
Bizarre story on the Wagner mercenaries. According to Gazeta Wyborcza recruitment posters and stickers for them have been appearing in Warsaw and Krakow with a QR code leading to a Russian language website. A bearded man wearing a Newcastle shirt was apparently observed putting some up in Warsaw.I think "bizarre" is an undersell there. If it had been Krakow I'd be tempted to put it down to a tasteless but imaginative Stag Do forfeit... |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2023 23:03:46 GMT
But the real emperor’s new clothes may have been getting rid of Boris Johnson and discovering that without the hirsute blond wig and untucked shirt, the naked Conservative Party underneath lacks a coalition large enough to win elections today and, even worse, faces wipe-out in a decade unless it changes. Which, and here’s the good news for them, if history is anything to go by, it will." I suspect they will take comfort from that. The most successful political party in the western world and all that. But if someone can name me one pragmatic politician still in the party, then I and others can name ten rabid, unloveable, deluded zealots who will fight change because they are RIGHT and the public are WRONG. Much like Corbyn and co then. No one finds it hard to see how Corbyn and co were consigned to the margins. Personally I don’t find it hard to see how their right wing equivalents can’t suffer the same fate. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 12, 2023 23:22:16 GMT
So the Telegraph has it wrong? I'm not surprised. You're telling me that Starmer wants to end all Clean Air Zones (in England, presumably) and not just ULEZs. And he wants the government that funds English local authorities to pick up the costs, and not those authorities?
That sounds very much like an uncosted policy to me, which Starmer/Reeves say they won't make - so not just U-turns but a series of Z-bends. I certainly didn't say any of that. I know no more than what is in the press (Telegraph and Mail so far). The Mail's article suggests that what as occurred is a pro-CAZ paragraph has been removed from Labour's 84 page Transport strategy. My point was more that before the usual round of Starmer bashing starts, an indisputably centre-left figure like Burnham also has his doubts - and with given reasons. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12400991/Sir-Keir-Starmer-junks-pledge-role-clean-air-zones-UK-disastrous-public-response-Sadiq-Khans-hated-Ulez-scheme-London.html
At least Burnham has a strategy - that UKGE funds the scrapping of non-compliant vehicles, because he faced significant local opposition by introducing the CAZ. I can understand that. Glasgow's city centre CAZ has been attacked by (Optional Identity Mark) Labour as they try to gain the votes of polluters (who kill the poor through their determination to drive their old bangers into the very heart of the city). Glasgow Council would be equally keen that UKGov funded the scrappage of such vehicles but, in the absence of such a scheme (from both Con & Lab) have protected air quality anyway. The Glasgow scheme isn't extreme - it's just a CAZ. It applies to the city centre only and not the rest of the city. It doesn't apply to "Greater Glasgow" - yet your party opposes it anyway.
Air pollution kills 28,000-36,000 people every year in the UK. It disproportionately harms the poorest & disabled people. Doesn't that matter more than getting such a stonking majority that the new PM can do as much (or as little) as he chooses? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 12, 2023 23:26:15 GMT
While true, another, even more challenging, parlour game would be to come up with any legal theory, against Trump, that wouldn't be summarily dismissed by the current US Supreme Court. Heh I'm not so sure on that. Judges get picked (by both sides) for their ideology but once they're there, especially in the case of the Supreme Court, they owe no fealty. So I think it would depend a lot on what that point of law turns out to be. If the case is essentially that either Congress or an agency of the Federal Government is trying to say that they can disbar Trump from standing, yes I wouldn't be at all surprised if SCOTUS told them to seek asylum in France (to borrow the current parlance). Politicians and their quango appointees inventing powers they don't have a legal basis to wield is something this Court is clearly going to put a really high threshold against. If the case is essentially that the Republican Party wants to disqualify Trump on some procedural grounds he finds awfully unfair (like being in jail) I suspect this Court would shrug and say it's a matter for the Republican Party not the courts. If it were to be on something like your 14th Amendment issue, and the legal basis of that had been at least plausible enough for the case to get as far as SCOTUS, then... I'm not sure it would go the way you think. This Court is fond of strict and literal interpretations, even where the passage of time has seen a different interpretation adopted by consensus or precedent. That's partly why I referred to the idea as "intriguing" earlier - even if Trump's lawyers argued that this provision was obsolete as it was clearly meant to disbar Confederate leaders from being elected in the years after the Civil War, I suspect this Court (that Trump has had such a strong hand in shaping) would have no truck with that - if it's written in the Constitution then it's the law. Hoist by his own petard in the grandest way possible. On the other hand, if the crux is whether whatever he gets convicted of qualifies as insurrection or not, or it's a procedural issue like whether he can be disbarred on the basis of a lower court verdict and before the appeals process has been completed, god knows. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 23:55:52 GMT
For all my midnight fans I'd like to say that having finished 1984 I am now watching Blade Runner which I have never seen. I will check in from time to time in case anything interesting is posted, but as that's pretty unlikely you'll all probably have to wait for further enlightenment until tomorrow later today.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 13, 2023 0:04:33 GMT
For all my midnight fans I'd like to say that having finished 1984 I am now watching Blade Runner which I have never seen. I will check in from time to time in case anything interesting is posted, but as that's pretty unlikely you'll all probably have to wait for further enlightenment until tomorrow later today. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 13, 2023 2:20:35 GMT
That seems reasonable. Starmer has no agenda (at least any that he is willing to share) other than that anything which Tory voters in England might find objectionable, must not be Labour policy.
At least Burnham has a strategy - that UKGE funds the scrapping of non-compliant vehicles, because he faced significant local opposition by introducing the CAZ. I can understand that. Glasgow's city centre CAZ has been attacked by (Optional Identity Mark) Labour as they try to gain the votes of polluters (who kill the poor through their determination to drive their old bangers into the very heart of the city). Glasgow Council would be equally keen that UKGov funded the scrappage of such vehicles but, in the absence of such a scheme (from both Con & Lab) have protected air quality anyway. The Glasgow scheme isn't extreme - it's just a CAZ. It applies to the city centre only and not the rest of the city. It doesn't apply to "Greater Glasgow" - yet your party opposes it anyway.
Air pollution kills 28,000-36,000 people every year in the UK. It disproportionately harms the poorest & disabled people. Doesn't that matter more than getting such a stonking majority that the new PM can do as much (or as little) as he chooses? Section in bold does seem to be the Starmer-LAB 'strategy' and will likely ensure LAB win enough seats to hold a comfortable majority in GE'24 - although it will be based on a very broad coalition of voters from Corbyn-LAB (ie so arch-ABCON that they'll pinch their nose and vote for Starmer-LAB to kick out CON in E&W) through to CON'19 who (rightly) think CON have failed to deliver. Scotland is different of course and since Starmer-LAB is much further RoC than Corbyn-LAB then in your polity I can see that most BNATs will now vote for whoever is the best placed ABSNP candidate (which in most seats is LAB - add the 'S' if you want but I don't think it is necessary unless SLAB want to distance themselves from Starmer-ELAB in the way some of the devolved Mayors are doing) I agree Burnham has a strategy but his 'carrots and sticks'* relies on UK HMG (for England) providing said carrots (ie a nationally funded scrappage scheme) which is a 'flaw' with devolution (ie it is easy for a devolved polity such as G.Manchester to 'blame' UK HMG for failure to deliver a devolved policy due to lack of ££). G.Manchester does lack the existing public transport of G.London so being able to 'blame' UK HMG for delay is quite a handy option IIRC Starmer used to be a fan of more devolution but maybe that is like his 10 pledges? 'Z-turns' is a good one. I very much doubt Starmer will be doing 'O-turns' (ie two U-turns to get back to the 10 pledges). Sadly at the moment it seems RUK set the agenda, CON copy RUK (for fear of loosing votes to RUK) and then LAB copy CON (for the 'strategy' of appealing to CON'19 voters). Might I suggest Starmer is being very consistent in his turns since becoming leader of LAB. Faced with any option he turns 'Right' (but in a straight line ---> to RoC rather than an O or Z turn) * Repost but below covers the "carrot" part: "Burnham is now a proponent of what he has called the “carrot” method, demanding around £130m of compensation from central government to help drivers scrap and replace their old vehicles"
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/andy-burnham-clean-air-manchester-ulez-caz |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 13, 2023 5:13:14 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 13, 2023 7:06:15 GMT
Talking about ships that have sailed. The Bibby Stockholm becomes the only boat the Tories have actually stopped.  |
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Post by hireton on Aug 13, 2023 7:11:18 GMT
So a Lavatories Tsar now it seems. The Telegraph is Badenoch's chosen leadership campaign platform so the report is probably reliable:
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