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Post by Mark on Aug 11, 2023 20:36:35 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 48% (+1)
CON: 24% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
RFM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via
@omnisis
, 10-11 Aug.
Changes w/ 3-4 Aug.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2023 20:43:09 GMT
James E Thanks for putting me right re the two to one ratio frequency.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 11, 2023 21:03:18 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 48% (+1) CON: 24% (-1) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 6% (+1) RFM: 6% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @omnisis , 10-11 Aug. Changes w/ 3-4 Aug. That's a smashing poll, it really is . |
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Post by James E on Aug 11, 2023 21:07:24 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 48% (+1) CON: 24% (-1) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 6% (+1) RFM: 6% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @omnisis , 10-11 Aug. Changes w/ 3-4 Aug. That's a smashing poll, it really is . It's pretty good, but for lovers of two-to-one ratios it would be even better with LDs on 12%. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 11, 2023 21:08:57 GMT
Crofty - on your matching football nicknames, Red Devils versus Saints has definite theological overtones.
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Post by graham on Aug 11, 2023 21:09:08 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 48% (+1) CON: 24% (-1) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 6% (+1) RFM: 6% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @omnisis , 10-11 Aug. Changes w/ 3-4 Aug. That's a smashing poll, it really is . Well - it gives the Tories and their Neo Conservative allies and recent Collaborators a stunning 88%! |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 11, 2023 21:27:58 GMT
That's a smashing poll, it really is . Well - it gives the Tories and their Neo Conservative allies and recent Collaborators a stunning 88%! Ever the comedian.. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Aug 11, 2023 21:53:12 GMT
Crofty,
Barney report
Fish and chips excellent.
Morrisons a bit of a dark hole
Town centre superb architecturally.
Castle - didn't have time to visit
Co-op garage OK, apart from blonde who didn't know where her fuel filler was.
Beamish was rammed.
We will be back.
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 11, 2023 22:01:40 GMT
Mark has kindly offered some clarification on 'banter'. Folks can read the full post at: ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/96530/threadI stated I'd try a 'reset' once again and have even changed my avatar accordingly. New general thread is like reaching the play-offs and all 'yellow cards' are reset. So if anyone wants to question my views then please reply directly to me using the 'quote' function - highlighting the specific point being addressed by putting it in bold (see example below of how to do that) and providing an alternative view backed up with sources/costings/realism as applicable. *** ADMIN *** It's not the first time I've been asked about what is called 'banter, and you are not the first person to raise it. Personally, I would like to see inter-member banter, that is banter between members and banter referencing other members kept to an absolute minimum....
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Post by bardin1 on Aug 11, 2023 22:02:29 GMT
Crofty, Co-op garage OK, apart from blonde who didn't know where her fuel filler was. Just had to check my browser to see if I was on CarryonPolling.com but no, its UK polling |
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on Aug 11, 2023 22:17:50 GMT
Lucky escape news:  |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 11, 2023 22:26:48 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 11, 2023 23:04:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2023 23:11:20 GMT
Crofty, Barney report Fish and chips excellent. Morrisons a bit of a dark hole Town centre superb architecturally. Castle - didn't have time to visit Co-op garage OK, apart from blonde who didn't know where her fuel filler was. Beamish was rammed. We will be back. I shall get that printed out for our tourist centre leaflets. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2023 23:28:32 GMT
Due to popular request this evening’s Midnight with Mercian has been cancelled and will be replaced with silence.
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2023 23:52:25 GMT
Whilst having a quiet late-night smoke in the garden this thought occurred to me - are we seeing the start of a political shift in England at least. I am thinking in terms of social classes and a reversion to a situation which still exists in some places (such as Clovelly), where the local squire or toff has more in common with the working classes than the middle classes.
In older times the aristocracy rather looked down on 'trade' and nouveau riche, while the poor resented merchants and professionals ripping them off. In fact this persists as my wife's relatives refused to use a lawyer to deal with her sister's sizeable estate because "they are all 'rob-dogs'".
Now although Labour look all set to win the next election and the Red Wall collapse in 2019 was a special case I'm wondering if something is afoot. The Tory MPs include many privately-educated people but also the likes of Lee Anderson. Whereas current Labour are led by the middle-class lawyer Starmer.
Of course there are many exceptions that can be pointed out but I'm just thinking in terms of general trends. For instance many on this board are university educated and from various hints from time to time are relatively well-heeled and yet they are left-wing.
To sum it up, is the Tory party becoming the party of the working class largely run by toffs, while Labour are becoming the middle class party?
It's more complicated than that obviously because there are many other parties of greater or lesser significance (and I'm talking primarily about England) but it's food for thought. I'd be interested in others' views.
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2023 23:53:28 GMT
@fecklessmiser
Still here mate. I just had some important ponderings to do. Also I'm trying to find space in my crowded schedule to come here earlier in the day as well so you folks don't have dozens of my posts to skip at once.
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Post by Mark on Aug 12, 2023 0:30:39 GMT
mercianThat is a very interesting post. While tradiionally, the tories have been at least percieved to be 'for the rich' and Labour for the 'working classes', in truth, it's never been entirely clear cut. There have always been working class tories and, to give one example, Tony Benn wasn't exactly short of a few quid. Having said that, I think there are demographic shifts emerging. For one, just like in America - and this was happening long befre Trump - the big metropolitan cities tended Democrat whil the small towns and rural areas tend republican. We are [possibly increasingly] seeing the same here, with the big cities becoming ever more Labour...ok, the tories are at a low ebb in support right now, so tbc where, long term their support will come from. More in line with what you are getting at though, you are basically asking 'is education becoming a bigger driver of VI than class?' I would venture to suggest that students have long tended to be more Labour than Conservative - and there are more of them than in previous generations. Conversely, working class Labour support has tended to be strongest in the past with union memberhip and particpation. Here the opposite is true. Working class tory support has often tended to be amongst the self employed, small buines owners and the like (what Marx called the 'petit bourgoisie') who may not have much in the way of formal qualifications, certainly not after school, but, more to the point, their life path wwould tend mean that colectivism would not feature strongly in their lives. Bit of a ramble on my part, and not really saying what I wanted, but, a few bits of food for thought.
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 0:48:34 GMT
MarkThanks for the thoughtful reply. Yes you've identified several interesting issues. 1) Big cities becoming more Labour. That's particularly inner cities where recent immigrants and their descendants tend to be, so that's a complicating issue on top of the class/education theory. 2) 'is education becoming a bigger driver of VI than class?' A right-winger might say that there has been a long-standing agenda on the left to infiltrate higher education, and that students are no longer taught to think for themselves but just to follow the latest fashionable cause. This was even evident in my day at a mere Polytechnic when there was a mass student meeting to vote that the canteen should not serve Chilean coffee for some political reason. I was one of three out of hundreds to vote against of course. 🤣 3) Good point about the self-employed, small business owners etc. With the weakening of unions and the growth of the 'gig economy' and lots of people making money on ebay etc this group may be growing. One other point not directly related. I like Lee Anderson because he actually says what he thinks, but I also liked Dennis Skinner for exactly the same reason. It's very refreshing to have politicians who are blunt and direct rather than all the mealy-mouthed squirming that we get from most of them. Whether I agree with them or not.
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Post by mercian on Aug 12, 2023 2:08:44 GMT
Just finished watching the 1984 film of '1984' by Orwell. Very powerful. Obviously I identified with Winston Smith (played by John Hurt). Of course there are differences with our world, notably the internet which allows the possibility for oppressed people everywhere to see other viewpoints, but the ideas of groupthink, thoughtcrime and so on really resonate with our current society. "How many fingers am I holding up?" I will ALWAYS say 4!
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As a sidenote when I last logged on I think there were no members and 8 guests. Now there is 1 member (me) and 16 guests. Big Brother is watching us folks! Oo-er.
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 12, 2023 3:06:21 GMT
Whilst having a quiet late-night smoke in the garden this thought occurred to me - are we seeing the start of a political shift in England at least. I am thinking in terms of social classes and a reversion to a situation which still exists in some places (such as Clovelly), where the local squire or toff has more in common with the working classes than the middle classes. In older times the aristocracy rather looked down on 'trade' and nouveau riche, while the poor resented merchants and professionals ripping them off. In fact this persists as my wife's relatives refused to use a lawyer to deal with her sister's sizeable estate because "they are all 'rob-dogs'". Now although Labour look all set to win the next election and the Red Wall collapse in 2019 was a special case I'm wondering if something is afoot. The Tory MPs include many privately-educated people but also the likes of Lee Anderson. Whereas current Labour are led by the middle-class lawyer Starmer. Of course there are many exceptions that can be pointed out but I'm just thinking in terms of general trends. For instance many on this board are university educated and from various hints from time to time are relatively well-heeled and yet they are left-wing. To sum it up, is the Tory party becoming the party of the working class largely run by toffs, while Labour are becoming the middle class party? It's more complicated than that obviously because there are many other parties of greater or lesser significance (and I'm talking primarily about England) but it's food for thought. I'd be interested in others' views. For data on MPs with x-breaks by party then see: researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7483/CBP-7483.pdf'Toffs' is a bit vague but the issue of 'fee paying schools' was covered in the 'Keirs' issue from a few weeks back - overall split is CON 44%, LDEM 38%, LAB 19%. See p20 for the 'trend' which somewhat simplistically is CON are still 'Toffy' but it less than they used to be and LAB are pretty much unchanged (from a lower start point of 'Toffyness'). For VI then some polling companies split the x-breaks by 'social class' and plenty of articles have been writing about that no longer being the 'defining' difference between CON v LAB. Using latest YG then the split is fairly even: Overall / ABC1 / C2DE CON: 25 / 25 / 26 (ie pretty equal) LAB: 47 / 50 / 42 (ie a small bias to ABC1 but that is possibly an age correlation issue rather than causation) Age is more of a 'defining' difference and taking the youngest and oldest x-breaks then: Overall / 18-24 / 65+ CON: 25 / 13 / 45 (ie a big skew to older folks) LAB: 47 / 61 / 28 (ie a big skew to younger folks) docs.cdn.yougov.com/nqg0mhiemd/TheTimes_VI_NetZero_230803_W.pdfNB When it comes to 'University' education for both MPs and VI then a lot more people have been going to University in recent times so be careful with interpreting 'education' (eg younger people lean LAB/Green and are more likely to have gone to University compared to older people who lean CON - that is 'correlation' rather than necessarily being 'causation'). The 'correlation' extends into types of seats (eg LAB hold most 'Uni'/young person / renter / city seats where as CON typically do better in seats with higher average age / home owners / rural) PS I won't reply to your follow up post but on your #1 then it is true that 'cities' (especially inner cities) have a higher population of BAME* as well as students/young people. See above for #2 (ie is that 'correlation' rather than 'causation'). #3 sounds somewhat intuitive so I'd request a source. * Not sure that term is still used but below splits it out and at the bottom you can use other 'click-thrus' to look at other data. A lot of 'seat prediction' models (and quite likely Party HQs) will use that various data to decide which segments to target and that gets back to the issue of Corbyn-LAB 'vote stacking' in Cities and Boris-CON snaffling up the 'Red Wall' (and how Starmer-LAB is now targeting Middle Aged Mortgage Man / Stevenage Woman / focus group of the week and taking the 'uber safe' LAB seats somewhat for granted as CON will never win those) commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-statistics-ethnicity/ |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 5:36:08 GMT
mercianPolice cells throughout the UK on a Friday and Saturday night are full of people who said what they thought, or alternatively engaged mouth without engaging brain,which frankly is Anderson's problem and goes some way to explain why he's such a monumental twat.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 12, 2023 6:23:12 GMT
Whilst having a quiet late-night smoke in the garden this thought occurred to me - are we seeing the start of a political shift in England at least. I am thinking in terms of social classes and a reversion to a situation which still exists in some places (such as Clovelly), where the local squire or toff has more in common with the working classes than the middle classes. In older times the aristocracy rather looked down on 'trade' and nouveau riche, while the poor resented merchants and professionals ripping them off. In fact this persists as my wife's relatives refused to use a lawyer to deal with her sister's sizeable estate because "they are all 'rob-dogs'". Now although Labour look all set to win the next election and the Red Wall collapse in 2019 was a special case I'm wondering if something is afoot. The Tory MPs include many privately-educated people but also the likes of Lee Anderson. Whereas current Labour are led by the middle-class lawyer Starmer. Of course there are many exceptions that can be pointed out but I'm just thinking in terms of general trends. For instance many on this board are university educated and from various hints from time to time are relatively well-heeled and yet they are left-wing. To sum it up, is the Tory party becoming the party of the working class largely run by toffs, while Labour are becoming the middle class party? It's more complicated than that obviously because there are many other parties of greater or lesser significance (and I'm talking primarily about England) but it's food for thought. I'd be interested in others' views. I don't think it is that the classes are swapping round, more that social class is ceasing to matter as an indicator of voting intention and has been replaced by "values" based voting - i.e. do you take: (a) a broadly liberal view on social issues (live and let live) or an authoritarian one (people whose lifestyles I don't like should stay quiet/have less rights) and (b) an internationalist or a (UK/GB) nationalistic view, but also modified by whether you are doing well out the current economic situation where the boomer generation have acculturated vast asset wealth and the later generations are largely locked out of this. The result is that age and education have become far more important that class in determining VI (Trevor has posted the numbers on this), as was noted in the Brexit referendum. Of course Labour has always had a middle class element and the Conservatives a working class one. Without reopening the tedious debate as to whether Starmer's background is upper-working class or lower-middle class (only in Britain would anyone think this matters) it should be noted that Labour's three most successful leaders - Attlee, Wilson and Blair - were all middle class. "Attlee was born into an upper-middle-class family, the son of a wealthy London solicitor." (Wikipedia) "(Wilson) Born in Huddersfield, Yorkshire, to a politically active middle-class family," (Wikipedia) Blair's father was a university lecturer. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 6:43:22 GMT
pjw1961 Blair's middle class characteristics can be somewhat exaggerated his adopted grandfather was a Glasgow dock worker and his father before going on to a successful career as a lawyer and lecturer was brought up in a Glasgow tenement .
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 7:08:23 GMT
The curious case of the crooked house. Of course not casting any aspersions but it does remind me of the listed barn that was bought near my old house by a property developer and mysteriously burnt to the ground the next week conveniently as it happens because the new housing development was due to commence the following month. It's these types of remarkable coincidences that can leave investigators flummoxed. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-burnt-out-pub-historic-landmark |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 12, 2023 7:08:49 GMT
"only in Britain would anyone think this matters" - Ain't that the case. I always assumed that one of the reasons the British (English) felt so at home in India during the empire was that the caste system was so familiar.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 12, 2023 7:11:18 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2023 8:09:02 GMT
Crofty, Barney report Fish and chips excellent. Morrisons a bit of a dark hole Town centre superb architecturally. Castle - didn't have time to visit Co-op garage OK, apart from blonde who didn't know where her fuel filler was. Beamish was rammed. We will be back. Thanks Dominic. |
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2023 8:22:20 GMT
"Thanks Dominic."
can't see it myself!
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2023 8:27:49 GMT
The curious case of the crooked house. Of course not casting any aspersions but it does remind me of the listed barn that was bought near my old house by a property developer and mysteriously burnt to the ground the next week conveniently as it happens because the new housing development was due to commence the following month. It's these types of remarkable coincidences that can leave investigators flummoxed. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-burnt-out-pub-historic-landmarkProperty development and its rapacious ways waits for no man. I used to frequent The Crooked House pub on the way back from playing cricket at places like Wombourne, Himley and Wolverhampton. An obligatory pilgrimage for us Redditch folk on cricketing away days in the Black Country. Haven't been for thirty years or more now and it looks as if I will never be able to return now. It was a place very much at the heart of Black Country folklore and culture. Just as Dudley Cricket Club, an occasional outground for Worcestershire, used to be before it disappeared down a limestone mining induced sink hole over 40 years ago. And yes, it was possible to roll a coin up a window sill in the Crooked House. Did so many a time. I liked an Adrian Chiles anecdote I heard recently about his one and only visit there. It was the last stop on an all day pub crawl and his state of inebriation totally negated any impression of crookedness in the place at all! |
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