neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 22, 2023 16:25:07 GMT
I think Lewis Goodall makes some very good points
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Explains a fair bit of British political history that Labour can turn the day after one of their biggest ever victories to a period of nervy self-incrimination and the Conservatives can quietly move on from two of their worst ever defeats, and convince everyone it wasn’t too bad.
Speaks too to the where the gravity of British politics/media still lies (for all the talk of levelling up). Patt of the over-emphasis on the Uxbridge result is because it’s in London. Selby is getting less attention than it should because it’s more distant to where power is.
Selby and Somerton tell us more about where electoral politics is right now. Uxbridge does give us a glimpse of where politics might flow, if not now than after the general election. Writing about this for the NS on Monday
But danger is politics/media overinterprets. There’s a danger for progressive parties in a backlash against net zero policies. But a) polling shows public overall concerned about climate change b) it’s about how they’re done (see Biden/Albanese) c) ULEZ is popular across London.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 16:35:09 GMT
Been checking bbc every now and then to see if England had got a wicket yet but no joy. This time I thought I would go with Guardian sport and it worked.
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 16:49:53 GMT
I think the issues mentioned there are of varying importance, but all of them can cause social unrest if not dealt with in a sensible & timely way . I think crime and unregulated migration are issues which can be reasonably placed in a political manifesto though neither of them need to be "divisive" issues at all if dealt with sensibly , sensitively and proportionately. Gender politics is an issue of minority rights and how those interact with the rights of the majority. Its more aggressive proponents make it a divisive issue. Sunak should steer clear of this as a major manifesto issue. Agreed, but if the reason a party is prioritising crime and immigration is to appease far right elements (whether in politics, the press or society generally) then all that is accomplished is moving the Overton window further towards the far right. I It's not 'far right' to be concerned about crime and immigration. Surely it's mainstream to want to live in a peaceful society where crime is minimal. It will never disappear of course. Neither is it 'far right' to be concerned about uncontrolled immigration which puts a strain on existing infrastructure. To pretend that these are far right policies is to brand a large proportion of your fellow citizens as such, instead of restricting the term to real extremists. By branding a large chunk of the population in this way you give cover to those extremists. It's like saying that it's 'far left' to have a social security system or the NHS. Ridiculous. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 17:14:38 GMT
Neither is it 'far right' to be concerned about uncontrolled immigration which puts a strain on existing infrastructure. The infrastrucitre is only strained because we have chosen not to update it. Isnt it curious that the same government Invites millions of immigrants to come to the UK. Refuses to build infrastructure accordingly. Declines to take measures like training Uk citizens so as to reduce critical labour shortages. Claims immigration is out of control and the opposition party would make matters worse. But its a lovely way to create an issue you can then camaign on. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 17:23:06 GMT
Colin you do talk some absolute shite some time, across the board Sweden's crime rates are lower than the UK Both are low by international standards.Both of course share some similarities in the issues of countries with large urban populations Funny you should mention how similar Sweden and the Uk are in terms of large urban populations. I wonder if that would make them very similar in terms of the likely rate of transmission of infectious diseases, such as covid? And yet they managed to have fewer cases while intervening less. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 17:52:19 GMT
You keep getting this wrong. Cameron campaigned for Remain and resigned immediately when he lost. Although I don’t read his monologues I believe it’s quite unusual for him to get things wrong isn’t it? To return to my original post, "Labours biggest problem remains that it has no cause. Blair essentially invented a cause which i dont recall existing of education. Cameron adopted brexit and pushed it through. Brown slagged off horrible women. Corbyn could only half heartedly suport remain. (Though probably his mps are to blame there too)", which was a rather wuick summary of what happened. The point I was making was that successful PMs, or would be PMs, need a cause. Cameron adopted the cause of Brexit. He promised a referendum if con won the forthcoming election, and they did. Therefore he adopted brexit and pushed it through. Ok, it seems he expected the referendum would go remain, so he wasnt planning to cause the Uk to leave the EU, but in fact that is exactly what he did. He resigned immediately the referendum was lost, which I think rather acknowledged his guilt in causing brexit to happen. Although this does raise the question to what extent a prime minister rules or obeys his party. It is arguable he never believed they should promise a referendum but was overruled. However, his apparent guilt after what happened suggests he felt he could have made a difference and prevented the referendum. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 18:00:43 GMT
Very sad to read this in today's Times :- "Rishi Sunak is preparing to launch a more aggressive political campaign in an attempt to shift Labour’s lead in the polls with divisive policies on crime, migrant boats and transgender rights." I think con understand that in conventional terms the next elections is already lost. Even on the basis of the Ukbridge vote alone applied to the whole UK, they would lose to labour. And everyone seems to agree special circumstances saved that for them while both the other results were much worse. In 2019 Johnson got a win by doubling down on hard brexit. Conservatives have nothing left to lose by not doubling down on any policy they think has any chance whatever of gaining support. However unlikely that seems, at this point its worth a go. Their best card is the continuing unpopularity of labour. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 18:07:27 GMT
Thinking about the Uxbridge results, I agree that ULEZ was the primary reason the tories won. However that does not translate to a majority not wanting ULEZ, the majority voted for parties that supported ULEZ in one form or another It's the 2019 election all over again, only instead of Brexit it's ULEZ I suspect that those who don't like ULEZ because it is hitting them in the pocket will be much more motivated to vote on it than the people who are supportive for environmental reasons. That's human nature. Starmer today: "“We are doing something very wrong if policies put forward by the Labour party end up on each and every Tory leaflet." Depressingly, he has a point. Can't help think people are forgetting that this was a by election and people vote on issues, not who will form the next government. What we really saw here was a protest vote against ULEZ. That does not mean the result would have been the same had this been a genuine general election. It cuts both ways - in a general we might expect some natural tories to turn out and vote who did not now. But we night also expect some natural labour to get over their annoyance at ULEZ and prefer them overall as government. Its funny how there seems to have been little talk about how the actions of the previous local MP might have affected the result. Something often mentioned where the incumbent was forced to resign. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 22, 2023 18:07:53 GMT
Agreed, but if the reason a party is prioritising crime and immigration is to appease far right elements (whether in politics, the press or society generally) then all that is accomplished is moving the Overton window further towards the far right. I It's not 'far right' to be concerned about crime and immigration. Surely it's mainstream to want to live in a peaceful society where crime is minimal. It will never disappear of course. Neither is it 'far right' to be concerned about uncontrolled immigration which puts a strain on existing infrastructure. To pretend that these are far right policies is to brand a large proportion of your fellow citizens as such, instead of restricting the term to real extremists. By branding a large chunk of the population in this way you give cover to those extremists. It's like saying that it's 'far left' to have a social security system or the NHS. Ridiculous. A reminder of some LAB views on crime and immigration. Are LAB a 'far right' party? Some of the 'far left' perhaps think they are?!? Miliband's 'Controls on Immigration' mug from 2015 Attachment Deletedand more recently |
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 18:13:58 GMT
I do drive, as I work 35 miles away on North Yorkshire, and trains and buses simply don't connect, unless I put with a 2 hour commute. If I could commute on a decent service in about an hour, I'd do that and leave the car at home. I wonder if the time has arrived to introduce a tax on commuting to work. Could be ascertained straightforwardly by asking home address and work address when assessing income tax. In fact the revenue already have that information. Perhaps an extra 5% on income tax for longer commutes, calculated on a sliding scale with rising distance? Say, max anything over 30 miles and nothing under a mile? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 18:52:38 GMT
It's not 'far right' to be concerned about crime and immigration. Surely it's mainstream to want to live in a peaceful society where crime is minimal. It will never disappear of course. Neither is it 'far right' to be concerned about uncontrolled immigration which puts a strain on existing infrastructure. To pretend that these are far right policies is to brand a large proportion of your fellow citizens as such, instead of restricting the term to real extremists. By branding a large chunk of the population in this way you give cover to those extremists. It's like saying that it's 'far left' to have a social security system or the NHS. Ridiculous. A reminder of some LAB views on crime and immigration. Are LAB a 'far right' party? Some of the 'far left' perhaps think they are?!? Miliband's 'Controls on Immigration' mug from 2015 View Attachmentand more recently  |
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Post by jib on Jul 22, 2023 19:02:58 GMT
On the Labour approach to immigration - of course Labour are going to be tough on immigration, but I bet they'll properly fund the institutions and oil the wheels of international collaboration that will achieve that much more effectively than the current Government.
I've always felt Labour believe in the institutions of state, rather than defunding and running them down like the Tories and friends.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 22, 2023 19:32:48 GMT
Latest opinium
Labour stays ahead with a lead of 17 points.
Labour: 42% (-1)
Conservatives: 25% (-3)
Lib Dems: 11% (+2)
SNP: 3% (n/c)
Green: 6% (n/c)
Reform UK: 10% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c)
Others: 2% (n/c)
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 19:39:01 GMT
Latest opinium Labour stays ahead with a lead of 17 points. Labour: 42% (-1) Conservatives: 25% (-3) Lib Dems: 11% (+2) SNP: 3% (n/c) Green: 6% (n/c) Reform UK: 10% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c) Others: 2% (n/c) Centre Left: 63% Centre Right: 35% The biggest mandate in democratic history. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 19:42:56 GMT
Big Col's got the smileys out.
I thought he was loving Trevor instead.
There's a song in there somewhere.
🎤🎤🎤🎤🥁🥁
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 19:55:32 GMT
Latest opinium Labour stays ahead with a lead of 17 points. Labour: 42% (-1) Conservatives: 25% (-3) Lib Dems: 11% (+2) SNP: 3% (n/c) Green: 6% (n/c) Reform UK: 10% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c) Others: 2% (n/c) Centre Left: 63% Centre Right: 35% The biggest mandate in democratic history. Except of course that it isn't a mandate. Or have you joined the ranks of those who seem to think that opinion polls are how government works? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 20:03:34 GMT
Centre Left: 63% Centre Right: 35% The biggest mandate in democratic history. Except of course that it isn't a mandate. Or have you joined the ranks of those who seem to think that opinion polls are how government works? The Voice of the People has spoken. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 20:08:29 GMT
Except of course that it isn't a mandate. Or have you joined the ranks of those who seem to think that opinion polls are how government works? The Voice of the People has spoken. Wot, Pete?!?!? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 20:11:29 GMT
Big Col's got the smileys out. I thought he was loving Trev instead. There's a song in there somewhere. 🎤🎤🎤🎤🥁🥁 How pathetic is it that someone needs to repeat a post that lasts for THREE PAGES (!!!) of my iPad’s scrolling capacity, in order to add a fucking titter? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 20:18:29 GMT
Big Col's got the smileys out. I thought he was loving Trev instead. There's a song in there somewhere. 🎤🎤🎤🎤🥁🥁 How pathetic is it that someone needs to repeat a post that lasts for THREE PAGES (!!!) of my iPad’s scrolling capacity, in order to add a fucking titter? I think you added a superfluous "ter" to your last word. iPad keyboard malfunction, I expect |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 22, 2023 20:25:07 GMT
WTF
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 22, 2023 20:26:36 GMT
Latest opinium Labour stays ahead with a lead of 17 points. Labour: 42% (-1) Conservatives: 25% (-3) Lib Dems: 11% (+2) SNP: 3% (n/c) Green: 6% (n/c) Reform UK: 10% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c) Others: 2% (n/c) Centre Left: 63% Centre Right: 35% The biggest mandate in democratic history. A mandate for what though? Certainly not to carry on implementing Tory policies. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 20:29:05 GMT
How pathetic is it that someone needs to repeat a post that lasts for THREE PAGES (!!!) of my iPad’s scrolling capacity, in order to add a fucking titter? I think you added a superfluous "ter" to your last word. iPad keyboard malfunction, I expect Not surprised after the extensive scrolling I’ve been putting it through.  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 20:35:51 GMT
Crikey, is there no end to government directives loading more and more duties on our teachers. Surely transgender surgery is a step too far??? EDIT: Just read the headline. They're going to ban it. So where is it going on already then? Biology lessons, I suppose. Must be in the curriculum. Did Gove put it there? Sex change by rote? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 20:41:53 GMT
The Profligate Skinflint is back, I see.
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Post by jib on Jul 22, 2023 20:44:33 GMT
Crikey, is there no end to government directives loading more and more duties on our teachers. Surely transgender surgery is a step too far??? EDIT: Just read the headline. They're going to ban it. So where is it going on already then? Biology lessons, I suppose. Must be in the curriculum. Did Gove put it there? Sex change by rote? Back to basics eh? ![]()  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 22, 2023 20:50:30 GMT
On the Opinium poll, Labour's scores on various 'values questions' are mediocre, but those of the Tories are spectacularly disastrous. Net scores:
In touch with ordinary people - Labour +7, Conservatives -53!
Represents what most people think - Lab 0, Con -49
Is united - Lab -4, Con -49
Has views similar to my own - Lab -2, Con -38
Is competent - Lab -3, Con -37
Has the nation's best interests at heart - Lab +7, Con -35
Is tolerant - Lab +9, Con -29
Is clear of purpose - Lab -3, Con -30
Labour has narrow leads over the Conservatives on the crucial areas of leadership (+3) and the economy (+2) and a larger one on spending effectively (+10).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 21:05:06 GMT
On the Opinium poll, Labour's scores on various 'values questions' are mediocre, but those of the Tories are spectacularly disastrous. Net scores: In touch with ordinary people - Labour +7, Conservatives -53! Represents what most people think - Lab 0, Con -49 Is united - Lab -4, Con -49 Has views similar to my own - Lab -2, Con -38 Is competent - Lab -3, Con -37 Has the nation's best interests at heart - Lab +7, Con -35 Is tolerant - Lab +9, Con -29 Is clear of purpose - Lab -3, Con -30 Labour has narrow leads over the Conservatives on the crucial areas of leadership (+3) and the economy (+2) and a larger one on spending effectively (+10). Well there’s Labour’s general election advertising campaign sorted: ”WE MIGHT BE MEDIOCRE BUT THE OTHER LOT ARE SPECTACULARLY DISASTROUS” VOTE FOR US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 21:20:05 GMT
On the Opinium poll, Labour's scores on various 'values questions' are mediocre, but those of the Tories are spectacularly disastrous. Net scores: In touch with ordinary people - Labour +7, Conservatives -53! Represents what most people think - Lab 0, Con -49 Is united - Lab -4, Con -49 Has views similar to my own - Lab -2, Con -38 Is competent - Lab -3, Con -37 Has the nation's best interests at heart - Lab +7, Con -35 Is tolerant - Lab +9, Con -29 Is clear of purpose - Lab -3, Con -30 Labour has narrow leads over the Conservatives on the crucial areas of leadership (+3) and the economy (+2) and a larger one on spending effectively (+10). Those are indeed devastatingly bad polling findings for the Conservatives and you really do wonder if there is any way back for them from this pit of public disdain. I remember when Labour were ejected from office in 2010 that the sense of inevitability about their fate set in about 12 months before the election as all the key opinion poll approval ratings headed sharply south. Nothing on the political dashboard flashed green, just red, but I don't recall them ever entering the sort of territory the Tories appear now to be in. For what it's worth, when campaigning in that 2010 election I met many voters quite apologetic about admitting they were switching from Labour to Tory. They just felt Labour's time was up and it was time for a change. It was a weird campaign in many ways. Labour being put to rest with some heavy heart involved. Little anger. This imminent changing of the guard feels different, as if the Tories are going out of the exit door with a very large boot being applied to their exterior. They could be in for quite a hiding unless some political miracle is lurking around the corner. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 21:26:15 GMT
crossbat11The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France?
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