pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 22, 2023 21:31:45 GMT
Well there’s Labour’s general election advertising campaign sorted: ”WE MIGHT BE MEDIOCRE BUT THE OTHER LOT ARE SPECTACULARLY DISASTROUS” VOTE FOR US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am reliably informed that's the plan.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 21:37:12 GMT
crossbat11 The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France? What if they win? They’re notoriously sneaky and would almost certainly make you learn French (as well as correct English) - and eat frogs’ legs. (Thinking that through, it would be the frogs I would worry about most I think.) |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 21:37:55 GMT
pjw1961It more or less is though isn't it? 😁 Labour seem to be saying (so far) "We haven't got any particular stance on anything, but we're not as clapped out/corrupt/useless as the Tories." I expect they'll come up with something popular and not too socialist eventually. If they hand out free electric cars I'd vote for them so long as I get one.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,585
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 22, 2023 21:38:19 GMT
crossbat11 The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France? What makes you think we would win? Jim Hacker - "This could be my Falkland Islands". Sir Humphrey Appleby - "Yes, and you could be General Galtieri". |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 21:40:56 GMT
crossbat11 The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France? What if they win? They’re notoriously sneaky and would almost certainly make you learn French (as well as correct English) - and eat frogs’ legs. (Thinking that through, it would be the frogs I would worry about most I think.) Well the last time I remember them beating us (and I was there) was when they finally kicked us out of Calais in about 1550. Mind you they didn't have nukes then. Perhaps Netherlands would be better. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 21:42:55 GMT
What if they win? They’re notoriously sneaky and would almost certainly make you learn French (as well as correct English) - and eat frogs’ legs. (Thinking that through, it would be the frogs I would worry about most I think.) Well the last time I remember them beating us (and I was there) was when they finally kicked us out of Calais in about 1550. Mind you they didn't have nukes then. Perhaps Netherlands would be better. Isle of Man seems safer - and potentially do-able. |
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Post by James E on Jul 22, 2023 21:44:04 GMT
Latest opinium Labour stays ahead with a lead of 17 points. Labour: 42% (-1) Conservatives: 25% (-3) Lib Dems: 11% (+2) SNP: 3% (n/c) Green: 6% (n/c) Reform UK: 10% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c) Others: 2% (n/c) Without the re-weighting that Opinium now do , this would be a 23 point lead: Lab 45% Con 22% LD 11% Ref 8% Green 7% SNP 3% |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 22, 2023 21:46:23 GMT
crossbat11The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France? Germany may be worth a couple more percentage points in the polls, I would have thought. We could have a go at the Scots again, I suppose. Head off any independence moves by them. P.S. Just thought of a perfect pretext for a just war. If we lose to Germany in the Euros next summer by dint of a dodgy VAR decision, we could declare war against the nation supplying that game's VAR adjudicators. If they turn out to be Ukrainians, we just invade Germany instead. There's a precedent too if the UN resolution proves difficult to obtain. El Salvador and Honduras went to war with each other after a hotly disputed World Cup Qualifying game in 1969. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 22, 2023 21:47:47 GMT
What if they win? They’re notoriously sneaky and would almost certainly make you learn French (as well as correct English) - and eat frogs’ legs. (Thinking that through, it would be the frogs I would worry about most I think.) Well the last time I remember them beating us (and I was there) was when they finally kicked us out of Calais in about 1550. Mind you they didn't have nukes then. Perhaps Netherlands would be better. In seriousness although I favour a more directly confrontational stance towards Russia I do genuinely worry that something along those lines could help Sunak in a 'rally round' sense. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,585
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 22, 2023 21:47:51 GMT
pjw1961 It more or less is though isn't it? 😁 Labour seem to be saying (so far) "We haven't got any particular stance on anything, but we're not as clapped out/corrupt/useless as the Tories." I expect they'll come up with something popular and not too socialist eventually. If they hand out free electric cars I'd vote for them so long as I get one. To be honest, yes there is a bit of that. I'm hoping that there are a few popular policies being kept under wraps in order that the Tories can't steal them before the election - there is still 15 months to go until the likely date, so that is a real issue. There are 33m cars in the UK and the average price of an electric one is £49,000 so your unfunded policy pledge would cost £1,617bn if I've done the maths right. Therefore I think not, I'm afraid. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 21:52:25 GMT
crossbat11 The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France? Germany may be worth a couple more percentage points in the polls, I would have thought. We could have a go at the Scots again, I suppose. Head off any independence moves by them. I suppose we could claim the Tartan hordes were gathering and it was pre-emptive. Added bonus of eliminating SNP and Labour Scottish seats. I would now be worried about Auld Nat though. (Not as much as for those innocent little frogs though - they’re very sweet. I met a natterjack toad (nearly a frog) in Low Newton, Northumberland and was very taken by him. Or her.) |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,585
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 22, 2023 21:58:17 GMT
crossbat11 The traditional way to boost ratings is to start a just war. Then people rally round whoever's in charge at the time. It needs to be a biggish one though. Maybe France? Germany may be worth a couple more percentage points in the polls, I would have thought. We could have a go at the Scots again, I suppose. Head off any independence moves by them. We could nick the plot of "The Mouse that Roared" and declare war on America on the grounds that they give you nice stuff if you lose to them. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 22:03:38 GMT
Germany may be worth a couple more percentage points in the polls, I would have thought. We could have a go at the Scots again, I suppose. Head off any independence moves by them. I suppose we could claim the Tartan hordes were gathering and it was pre-emptive. Added bonus of eliminating SNP and Labour Scottish seats. I would now be worried about Auld Nat though. (Not as much as for those innocent little frogs though - they’re very sweet. I met a natterjack toad (nearly a frog) in Low Newton, Northumberland and was very taken by him. Or her.) Frogs and toads changed my life. I put a load of slug pellets down one year and next morning found a dead frog and toad in the grounds. Never used pellets again (nor been able to grow any veg ☹) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 22:19:22 GMT
I suppose we could claim the Tartan hordes were gathering and it was pre-emptive. Added bonus of eliminating SNP and Labour Scottish seats. I would now be worried about Auld Nat though. (Not as much as for those innocent little frogs though - they’re very sweet. I met a natterjack toad (nearly a frog) in Low Newton, Northumberland and was very taken by him. Or her.) Frogs and toads changed my life. I put a load of slug pellets down one year and next morning found a dead frog and toad in the grounds. Never used pellets again (nor been able to grow any veg ☹) I’ve often wondered how your kind, sensitive nature came about. |
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Post by pete on Jul 22, 2023 22:51:35 GMT
Agreed, but if the reason a party is prioritising crime and immigration is to appease far right elements (whether in politics, the press or society generally) then all that is accomplished is moving the Overton window further towards the far right. I It's not 'far right' to be concerned about crime and immigration. Surely it's mainstream to want to live in a peaceful society where crime is minimal. It will never disappear of course. Neither is it 'far right' to be concerned about uncontrolled immigration which puts a strain on existing infrastructure. To pretend that these are far right policies is to brand a large proportion of your fellow citizens as such, instead of restricting the term to real extremists. By branding a large chunk of the population in this way you give cover to those extremists. It's like saying that it's 'far left' to have a social security system or the NHS. Ridiculous. Were you concerned about crime when the Tories were getting rid of 20.000+ police (their support staff) closing courts, police stations and under paying criminal lawyers etc Were you as concerned about uncontrolled immigration when border force was being decimated by cuts? and the back log (around 80% would get to stay) for checking immigrants status was growing and growing and costing tax payers more and more (one hell of a false economy).? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 22:53:53 GMT
pjw1961 It more or less is though isn't it? 😁 Labour seem to be saying (so far) "We haven't got any particular stance on anything, but we're not as clapped out/corrupt/useless as the Tories." I expect they'll come up with something popular and not too socialist eventually. If they hand out free electric cars I'd vote for them so long as I get one. To be honest, yes there is a bit of that. I'm hoping that there are a few popular policies being kept under wraps in order that the Tories can't steal them before the election - there is still 15 months to go until the likely date, so that is a real issue. There are 33m cars in the UK and the average price of an electric one is £49,000 so your unfunded policy pledge would cost £1,617bn if I've done the maths right. Therefore I think not, I'm afraid. The tight gits would only dole out the cheapest ones (around £25k?) so we could halve that straight away. Peanuts! |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 22:54:51 GMT
Frogs and toads changed my life. I put a load of slug pellets down one year and next morning found a dead frog and toad in the grounds. Never used pellets again (nor been able to grow any veg ☹) I’ve often wondered how your kind, sensitive nature came about. I'm a great big softie old Hector. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 22:55:34 GMT
It's abundantly clear that in real votes refuk aren't going to get 10% of the vote 2% would be more likely, their votes will inevitably go to the other racist party the Tories.
While this won't change the outcome it's a clear indication of where the support for the current iteration of the Tories comes from.
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Post by pete on Jul 22, 2023 22:57:25 GMT
Derek Franks (he/him)
@derek_a_Franks
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Jul 20
C0VlD wastewater levels in the U.S. have risen 46% in the last 3 weeks. For context, these levels increased 40% the 3 weeks after omicron was first detected in the U.S. fall/winter 2021. This means this current surge in 2023 is heating up faster than original omicron. Bad news
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 23:00:14 GMT
It's not 'far right' to be concerned about crime and immigration. Surely it's mainstream to want to live in a peaceful society where crime is minimal. It will never disappear of course. Neither is it 'far right' to be concerned about uncontrolled immigration which puts a strain on existing infrastructure. To pretend that these are far right policies is to brand a large proportion of your fellow citizens as such, instead of restricting the term to real extremists. By branding a large chunk of the population in this way you give cover to those extremists. It's like saying that it's 'far left' to have a social security system or the NHS. Ridiculous. Were you concerned about crime when the Tories were getting rid of 20.000+ police (their support staff) closing courts, police stations and under paying criminal lawyers etc Were you as concerned about uncontrolled immigration when border force was being decimated by cuts? and the back log (around 80% would get to stay) for checking immigrants status was growing and growing and costing tax payers more and more (one hell of a false economy).? Yes and yes. Of course. Just because some folks on here think I'm a little RoC it doesn't mean I blindly accept everything the Tories have done. Indeed as I've said before I don't think I've voted for them in a GE for at least 20 years. Indeed I beat them when I stood in a local council election once. |
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Post by jib on Jul 22, 2023 23:03:59 GMT
Very good for the Telegraph!  |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 22, 2023 23:56:05 GMT
Big Col's got the smileys out. I thought he was loving Trevor instead. There's a song in there somewhere. 🎤🎤🎤🎤🥁🥁 And through it all … |
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Post by graham on Jul 23, 2023 0:22:26 GMT
It's abundantly clear that in real votes refuk aren't going to get 10% of the vote 2% would be more likely, their votes will inevitably go to the other racist party the Tories. While this won't change the outcome it's a clear indication of where the support for the current iteration of the Tories comes from. Nor will the Greens poll 6%. |
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Post by moby on Jul 23, 2023 3:14:59 GMT
@"trying to put up barriers against the 'immigrants' and trying to role back 'agressive identity politics' is pissing in the wind." I might agree with you on unregulated immigration -it will certainly become more difficult to control. I realise you probably mean that it should not be controlled-which as I've indicated-is imo dangerous complacency. I did !. I think the Pandemic intervened somewhat in his sunlit uplands dream-but it did have the advantage of demonstrating his unsuitability as PM. I never understood the Singapore on Thames thing-it was a nice phrase which sought to characterise BJ's Brexit philosophy in a certain way. I don't think he thought like that at all actually. But we will never know now and await Starmer's vision of a Brexit made to work properly. Sending people to Rwanda is definitely not going to work. Managed immigration within legal routes is the way to go and part of that is financing a proper border force. You ignore the main point I made which was that the bottom line is being part of the major political institution which borders us is crucial to having any influence over the existential issues that concern you. Yes we do await Starmers answers to the crap future brexit had foisted on us. What he will be doing though is making a bad legacy, slightly less bad until we can go back in again. Remember he wouldn't have started from where we are. |
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Post by moby on Jul 23, 2023 3:43:21 GMT
I think Lewis Goodall makes some very good points Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall Explains a fair bit of British political history that Labour can turn the day after one of their biggest ever victories to a period of nervy self-incrimination and the Conservatives can quietly move on from two of their worst ever defeats, and convince everyone it wasn’t too bad. Speaks too to the where the gravity of British politics/media still lies (for all the talk of levelling up). Patt of the over-emphasis on the Uxbridge result is because it’s in London. Selby is getting less attention than it should because it’s more distant to where power is. Selby and Somerton tell us more about where electoral politics is right now. Uxbridge does give us a glimpse of where politics might flow, if not now than after the general election. Writing about this for the NS on Monday But danger is politics/media overinterprets. There’s a danger for progressive parties in a backlash against net zero policies. But a) polling shows public overall concerned about climate change b) it’s about how they’re done (see Biden/Albanese) c) ULEZ is popular across London. The willingness of the Govmt to use 'wedge' issues as a strategy to win an election again demonstrates their moral bankruptcy. They are content to be the Govmt even if the country is divided and they have caused those divisions. Being in power means everything. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,669
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Post by steve on Jul 23, 2023 7:10:59 GMT
Ed Davey: ‘Tactical voting can lock Tories out of power for a generation’
Lib Dem leader says people lending their votes to rival parties could shut the door on Conservatives at Westminster for years to come.
“It is no secret that some Labour and Green party voters lent us their votes in Somerset and we are very grateful for their support,” he said. “In many seats across the south-west, voters at the next election will be faced with a similar choice between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.
“My message to all voters who want to get rid of this out-of-touch Conservative government is clear: if the Liberal Democrats can win back our heartlands in the West Country, it could lock the Conservatives out of power for a generation.”
The liberal democrats are prepared to say out loud what few in the Labour party will ever admit. Indeed they exclude those who do. Neal Lawson, the director of Compass, a centre-left pressure group, is facing dismissal from the Labour party for encouraging people to vote tactically, it's bizarre. Ed Davey our own leader is encouraging tactical voting, which sometimes will mean choosing not to vote lib dem. We don't expel members for stating the blindingly obvious, the Labour party should acknowledge reality as well.
Sometimes it's far better to vote for another progressive party when the alternative is allowing the Tories to slither back in on a minority because the opposition vote is split.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 23, 2023 7:13:37 GMT
That the regime is prepared to use opposition to climate change control measures when much of southern Europe is going up in flames because of the burgeoning impact of climate change, would be a new low , even for them.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 23, 2023 7:27:16 GMT
Big Col's got the smileys out. I thought he was loving Trevor instead. There's a song in there somewhere. 🎤🎤🎤🎤🥁🥁 And through it all … .......Col offers Trev protection A lot of love and affection Whether he's right or wrong |
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Post by alec on Jul 23, 2023 7:29:18 GMT
For those interested, I'm just away to post an analysis on the covid thread which challenges the conventional wisdom around the learning impacts of pandemic school closures. The data is from the US, but compares learning losses between schools that remained open or went virtual, with some surprising results. Eg, for Grade 8 reading, public schools in LA County saw some amazing gains, including among poorer black pupils, despite being closed for much longer. However, the general picture was one of learning losses, whether in person was maintained or not, but the lesson seems to be that the learning losses were not a function of whether schools closed or stayed open.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 23, 2023 7:47:39 GMT
steve
I think Davey and Starmer are on the same page on tactical voting but one of them, Davey, feels freer than the other, Starmer, about talking openly about it.
On the ground, in all three by elections on Thursday, the two parties had tacit agreements in place not to campaign seriously if one party or the other was clearly the main challenger to the Tory incumbent. It worked pretty well too, although it didn't quite get Labour over the line in Uxbridge. The 800 or so Green voters enabled the anti ULEZ Tory candidate to squeak in. Oh the irony of it, although I think the Green vote, much more than the Lib Dem one, contains far more people intrinsically hostile to Labour.
Starmer is being overly cautious on this, I think. He has to protect the Labour Party rule book, I accept, hence the silly spat with Lawson, but I think he's frightened to death of the Tory and right wing press attack line of him advocating a coalition of chaos. "See", they'll say, " he can't win on his own, so he's cheating the system."
Utter nonsense, of course, but it's probably why Starmer is all gung-ho and macho about doing it all on his own. "See me", he says publicly, " I don't need help from anyone ".
He should admit that he does and he will if the anti Tory majority of voters in this country are to game FPTP successfully.
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