pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 21, 2023 12:05:51 GMT
LG By-elections:
WORCESTER Nunnery - Labour Hold
WILLMORE, Elaine Grace (Labour) 1,048 59.7% (+12.1%)
DITTA, Allah (Conservative) 518 29.5% (- 2.7%)
BUTLER, Scott (Liberal Democrat) 102 5.8% (- 0.5%)
CARNEY, David Paul (Independent) 88 Ind 5.0% (+ 0.0%)
Didn't stand: Green (- 8.5%)
CEREDIGION Llanfarian - Lib Dem hold
EVANS, David Raymond (Liberal Democrat) 298 48.2% (-19.8)
DEAKIN, Karen Joan (Plaid Cymru) 290 46.9% (+15.0)
PARKER, Jack Kevin (Conservative) 30 4.9% (New)
St Margaret and South Marston (Swindon) - Con gain from Lab
Vallender (C) 1143 50.6% (+2.1)
Polson (Lab) 1118 49.4% (-2.1)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,757
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 12:06:40 GMT
Mr Poppy It may be the case that it is lower down the list of priorities for many, but if it happens to be a bigger deal for those swing voters, he might still play to that. Also, it might be low down the list for some, so long as reopening the matter isn’t on the table. If however rejoining gets put back on the table, they might not want to go through all that again so soon, even if they favour rejoin, and Starmer might see a negative reaction if he goes for rejoin. is there polling on how many of those who now favour rejoining, also want to see another ref in the near future?
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Post by norfolkandgood on Jul 21, 2023 12:11:48 GMT
I don't think that Labour would ever have won Copeland under Corbyn due to the nuclear industry's importance to Cumbria. indeed. Its a big boost to not need lighting at night because it all glows in the dark. I thought that I was looking at the northern lights 😂 |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 21, 2023 12:12:09 GMT
The good residents of Nunnery delivered the goods again:-
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 12:15:42 GMT
If this is true, I have three words for Starmer . Ha! Ha! Ha! You’re happy with a Conservative win and a Labour loss? That’s all I need to know. No - but I do cheer the defeat of smug NeoTories such as Starmer and Blair. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,657
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2023 12:16:43 GMT
Selby and Ainsty with a 24% swing, was seat 237th on Labour's target list. Somerton and Frome with a 29% swing was 57th on Lib Dems target list. Average swing away from the Tories 21% Sunakered claims victory! RafwanI am a strong supporter of clean air initiatives the problem with Khan's extension of the ULEZ zone was offering no compensation for the large number of diesel and commercial and car drivers who drive vehicles as new as just 7-8 years old. Many of these vehicles would meet the appropriate emission standards it's simply that the emissions standards tested at the time of manufacture were different Euro 5 not Euro 6 My own Ford Mondeo 2015 model was tested at EURO 5 and therefore would attract the £12 charge and yet it's emissions are exactly the same as a 2016,17,18,19 model of exactly the same car that wouldn't. Khan was effectively asking people to throw away vehicles that in some instances both met the emissions standards and were worth upwards of £20,000( not my old Mondeo I should add). It smacked of unfairness. He would have been better served to use the Euro 5 standard for diesel in which case the age criteria at around 16 years would have been the same for both petrol and diesel. A bit of a balls up by a normally shrewd politician and it cost Labour the seat. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,657
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2023 12:18:04 GMT
grahamWhen did Blair lose? Or was it just in your imagination.
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 12:18:56 GMT
Looking at the results the lib-dems doing well in the South West strongly suggests their continuing resurgence there in addition to other rural seats. Would be surprised on current form for them not to get well over 30 mps at the next election Disappointing for Labour in Uxbridge, but the ULEZ was in the end I think the reason they didn't win. On the other hand Selby was an historic win and bodes well for them in a General Election It also seems there was tactical voting between libdems and Labour. The Labour vote was squeezed in Somerton and the libdems in Selby and Uxbridge. That for me is the take away and lesson to be learned I suspect that much of the Labour vote in Somerton switched to the Greens. Stupid that Labour failed to campaign at all there. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 21, 2023 12:20:52 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 21, 2023 12:22:53 GMT
Actually, I was really just spoiling for a big row with you about whether history teaches us anything. Settle for a draw? If not, we may have to call in independent referees! I think you said you are off to get sleep, now. Hope you waken to loads of splendid news!! Happy to have a discussion on the value of history as a subject, although I would suggest on something more interesting than political party splits. How to defeat Russia in a war is a topical one, with lots of good lessons from history on what to do and not do. |
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Post by jimjam on Jul 21, 2023 12:26:21 GMT
Last night I forecast (Informed guesses really!) the below:
My main takeaway re forecasting is that these results demonstrate how hard it is to predict outcomes in seats where one has little or no knowledge.
So I spent a day in S&A and talked to other people who spent time there as well so was able to get pretty close. (0.3% out on swing but with Lab and Cons both a little higher).
For the others I was exclusively relying on press reports and Opinion Polls which is clearly flawed!
(Or maybe I am just crap at understanding said polls and account inaccurately for press reports?)
''Mine:
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Lab 44% (+6)
Con 36% (-16)
swing 11.5%
Selby and Ainsty - think Yorkshire may take 1-3% off the Tories and many Tories will stay at home.
Lab 42% (+18)
Con 32% (-28)
swing 23%
Somerton and Froom - no idea how big an LD win but will go a little lower swing just to be different from James.
LD 51% (+25)
Con 30% (-23)
swing Con to LD 24%''
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 12:29:15 GMT
Boundary changes in Selby will be helpful for Labour - and the predecessor seat was Labour - held 1997 - 2010. Moreover, when a seat changes hands at by elections following a big swing the winning party usually enjoys a 'bounce' at the subsequent GE. Examples of the latter are - Copeland in early2017 and retained at GE a few months later - the Tory gains at Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North in 2008 and 2009 respectively saw well above average swings to the Tories at the 2010 GE. Had there not been a by election at Copeland in February 2017, it is likely Labour would have held the seat at the GE. While I agree with your cooments on by election bounce, I don't think that Labour would ever have won Copeland under Corbyn due to the nuclear industry's importance to Cumbria. I believe that Labour would have held Copeland at the 2017 GE had there been no by election there a few months earlier. Labour managed to hold Barrow in Furness which had been more marginal than Copeland in 2015. . As it was, there was some swing back to Labour from the by election. |
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 12:42:56 GMT
graham When did Blair lose? Or was it just in your imagination. 1982 Beaconsfield by election.Indeed he lost his Deposit! |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 21, 2023 12:45:10 GMT
steveFew policies are perfectly executed, especially complex ones like climate, etc. If you wait for perfection you will never do anything. And yes there will be risks attached. Consequences rarely fall evenly and fairly. But my experience is that if you campaign with unity, and make the effort to explain and argue, and explicitly call upon people to recognise and accept consequences, they are much more likely to be prepared to run with you. But here you had the opposite, with the mayor firm in approach but the candidate weak at the knees. Of course it is going to turn a lot of people off. The right strategy here would have been aggressively pro-ULEZ. Start with a leaflet, banner-headed “ULEZ will save N lives every month, including Y in Uxbridge”.
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Post by Mark on Jul 21, 2023 12:46:42 GMT
Apropos of nothing much, I was amused this morning to discover that UKPR2 is blocked by Manchester Central Library as containing unsuitable content:
Manchester Libraries Website Filtering Access to this web page is filtered. Our web site filtering software has blocked access to the site listed. Access to this site has been blocked because it falls into one of the filtered categories applied by Manchester Libraries. To minimise the risk of children using the Internet to access inappropriate material we use filtering software to block access to certain web sites.I'm sorry to hear that. My guess is that they have blocked all sites hosted by Proboards. There are other political sites that Proboards hosts, although many/most are music/film/art related. You could try going through a proxy. While I don't have to worry about blocked sites, this one works really well for me in terms of circumventing adblock detection (EG, by the Daily Mirror) on some sites and also gets past most geo-restrictions... www.proxysite.com/ |
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 12:50:13 GMT
Statement from David Williams
'I have resigned as chair of Uxbridge and South Ruislip CLP. I am also resigning my membership of the Labour Party.
Politics needs to have principles or we end up with people like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss running the country,
Jeremy Corbyn gave a huge boost to the Labour Party'
11:47 am · 21 Jul 2023
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 21, 2023 13:01:08 GMT
pjw1961I was hopeless at history and never really liked it. I was always slightly baffled by how people knew, given that nobody alive today was actually there. So I drifted in the science direction (doing marginally better). Latterly though I have become a complete convert, having been doing loads of family history stuff. It is compelling and gives real insights into how how people lived 100+ years ago. This is in part because it has become more evidence-based, with the advent of official census and BMD records. David Olusoga’s brilliant “house through time” TV series illustrates this perfectly.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,657
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2023 13:06:13 GMT
"But Londoners are suffering the consequences of air pollution. I’m quite clear; it’s the poorest Londoners who are least likely to own a car, [and to] suffer the worst consequences [of air pollution] – that can’t be right. It’s black Londoners least likely to own a car who suffer the worst consequences – that can’t be right. This is an issue of social justice and racial justice. Sadiq Khan
Which is all true but a large percentage of these people live in inner London where car ownership is lower anyway not in the suburbs , which are more likely to vote Tory , have vehicles that are impacted and have large numbers commuting from areas just outside the ulez zone who are being offered no compensation at all. If Khan's position cost Labour the mayoralty London would end up with a climate change denying far right trump supporting loon. And no ulez zone at all.
Rethink time.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,657
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2023 13:10:22 GMT
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,407
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Post by neilj on Jul 21, 2023 13:11:55 GMT
Thinking about an obvious constitutional change that is a win win would be to revert Mayoral elections back to the Supplementary Vote system.
Would have a lot of support across the Labour Party
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 21, 2023 13:15:44 GMT
Mr Poppy (1) (a) It may be the case that it is lower down the list of priorities for many, but (b) if it happens to be a bigger deal for those swing voters, he might still play to that. Also, (2) it might be low down the list for some, so long as reopening the matter isn’t on the table. If however rejoining gets put back on the table, they might not want to go through all that again so soon, even if they favour rejoin, and Starmer might see a negative reaction if he goes for rejoin. (3) is there polling on how many of those who now favour rejoining, also want to see another ref in the near future? 1a "For the many not the few" (see point 2 and Most Important Issues polling) is always something worth bearing in mind 1b Tactically then I can see the merit in winning over CON'19 voters in Leave seats as there are enough of those seats to win Starmer a comfortable majority. However, IMO, those kind of voters probably currently care more about the Economy, NHS waiting lists, etc (again, see Most Important Issues). 2. Makes the most sense to me. Brexit sucked out all the political bandwidth from 2016 to early 2020 and having stated he now wants to "Make Brexit Work" then Starmer wants to move on (again, as per the vast majority of people IMO) 3. Folks tend to like the idea of refs but a quick look suggests more nuanced questions are no longer being asked: www.whatukthinks.org/eu/?s=referendum&post_types=Some Scottish polling asks about timing of IndyRef2 and we see quite a few people stating 'maybe later' rather than 'Yes-now'. James E seems to follow Brexit polling so he might be able to correct me and source some polling about desire+timing for EURef2. I agree the nuance is important. Given only a question such as 'In hindsight' or with the assuming ref is happening, the 'Wrong/Rejoin' lead misses out the 'process aspect' that might well turn some people off any party that wanted to go through all that again - in reverse. Also a LAB member such as jimjam should comment on what LAB are doing (or wisely keep shtum about any 2nd refs - for EU or Indy) NB I'll once again state 4. It is for those who wish to Rejoin to get the campaign going either "internally" within a party that has a lot of Rejoin interest in the x-breaks (ie LAB or LDEM, as Scots already have SNP) 5. Whilst by-elections don't tell us much then there is a party called Rejoin.EU and they put one of their top dogs* back into the dog show this week. Count Binface achieved a higher number of votes! Perhaps they should try a different dog next time but Rejoin.EU on the ballot box is hardly 'vague' - they are a 'single issue' party that state that one issue in their name. When 'Brexit Party' (single issue party) was on the ballot box in EP'19 they got a load of votes. I don't know why Rejoin.EU get so few votes but you're asking the wrong person. I don't want to go back and would never vote for a party that even mentioned that as a future possibility (which is one reason why I personally wouldn't vote Green) * Richard Hewison, who has a crack at various elections not and IIRC is going from bad to worse in terms of votes he is receiving. therejoineuparty.com/team/ |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,657
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2023 13:18:38 GMT
graham "1982 Beaconsfield by election.Indeed he lost his Deposit!" Actually he got more than 10% so he didnt. I bet you and the chaps down at the Trotskite Arms had a right laugh. Blair was selected by Labour because of his left wing position Blair made it clear in a letter he wrote to Labour leader Michael Foot in July 1982 (published in 2006) that he had "come to Socialism through Marxism" and considered himself on the left. I would have thought you would have been pleased to see him win.
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 21, 2023 13:35:20 GMT
Some are jumping before being purged. He respectfully waited until after the by-election but understandably has decided Starmer-LAB is not a party he wants to be part of.
(now Ex) Chair Uxbridge & South Ruislip CLP:
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 13:55:15 GMT
Looking at the results the lib-dems doing well in the South West strongly suggests their continuing resurgence there in addition to other rural seats. Would be surprised on current form for them not to get well over 30 mps at the next election Disappointing for Labour in Uxbridge, but the ULEZ was in the end I think the reason they didn't win. On the other hand Selby was an historic win and bodes well for them in a General Election It also seems there was tactical voting between libdems and Labour. The Labour vote was squeezed in Somerton and the libdems in Selby and Uxbridge. That for me is the take away and lesson to be learned I suspect that much of the Labour vote in Somerton switched to the Greens. Stupid that Labour failed to campaign at all there. “Stupid” does seem the appropriate word for that political analysis. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 14:00:24 GMT
Sam Freedman:
“ One thing that would worry me a lot if I were a Tory strategist - the Lab/Lib tactical voting was close to perfect in every seat (even Uxbridge). That's an extra 40 seats lost in a GE.”
Which is nice…
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 21, 2023 14:08:13 GMT
Chris Skidmore, the Conservative MP who led a review of net zero policies for the government, has urged politicians to be honest about the need for policies like the Ulez extension.
Accepting that the Uxbridge byelection became a referendum on Ulez, he said:
The reality is that Ulez was a Conservative policy, introduced by Boris Johnson as mayor and recently agreed by this government to be expanded in May 2020, as part of Covid loans to the mayor. It helps no one in politics if we are not honest about the reality of pollution in our cities and the health consequences of this, but we also need to be honest about what investments are needed to deliver policies with public support.
This is what the net zero review very clearly set out: we need long-term investment to encourage private sector investment and to create a just transition by establishing the effective incentives to decarbonise.
(From the Guardian website)
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 14:15:08 GMT
graham "1982 Beaconsfield by election.Indeed he lost his Deposit!" Actually he got more than 10% so he didnt. I bet you and the chaps down at the Trotskite Arms had a right laugh. Blair was selected by Labour because of his left wing position Blair made it clear in a letter he wrote to Labour leader Michael Foot in July 1982 (published in 2006) that he had "come to Socialism through Marxism" and considered himself on the left. I would have thought you would have been pleased to see him win. Wrong! Until the mid- 1980s a candidate had to poll 12.5% to save the Deposit of £150. |
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 14:17:56 GMT
I suspect that much of the Labour vote in Somerton switched to the Greens. Stupid that Labour failed to campaign at all there. “Stupid” does seem the appropriate word for that political analysis. I do appreciate such in depth analysis. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 14:19:16 GMT
“Stupid” does seem the appropriate word for that political analysis. I do appreciate such in depth analysis. No problem mate. |
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Post by birdseye on Jul 21, 2023 14:28:29 GMT
Rafwan I am a strong supporter of clean air initiatives the problem with Khan's extension of the ULEZ zone was offering no compensation for the large number of diesel and commercial and car drivers who drive vehicles as new as just 7-8 years old. Many of these vehicles would meet the appropriate emission standards it's simply that the emissions standards tested at the time of manufacture were different Euro 5 not Euro 6 My own Ford Mondeo 2015 model was tested at EURO 5 and therefore would attract the £12 charge and yet it's emissions are exactly the same as a 2016,17,18,19 model of exactly the same car that wouldn't. Khan was effectively asking people to throw away vehicles that in some instances both met the emissions standards and were worth upwards of £20,000( not my old Mondeo I should add). It smacked of unfairness. He would have been better served to use the Euro 5 standard for diesel in which case the age criteria at around 16 years would have been the same for both petrol and diesel. A bit of a balls up by a normally shrewd politician and it cost Labour the seat. If your vehicle manaufactured prior to Euro 6 will actually meet Euro 6 then the DVLA will change the record they have on file and you wont pay the ULEZ charge. My own toy car is petrol and was made in 2003 prior to euro 4. But it meets Euro 4 and after some pestering the DVLA changed the record and I can drive in into any ULEZ zone in the UK. Whether this works abroad I do not know. Possibly not if their system is as crude as to simply work off the date of first rehistration.
Changing the subject, why should the government aka the taxpayer sunsidise people changing vehicles to meet ULEZ. Surely its time that people whould adopt some level of personal responsibility rather than expecting the taxpayer to help with almost everything.
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