16-JUL 2023 : LAB: 46% / CON: 26% / LDEM: 11% / REF: 6%

[Mr Poppy]

Groan piece highlighting the 'rats in the (blue) sack' are concerned about the signalling from a few hundred votes in one by-election:

Rishi Sunak urged to stick with net zero pledges after Ulez role in Uxbridge win
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/rishi-sunak-conservatives-net-zero-ulez-uxbridge-south-ruislip-byelection

I hope Khan politely tells Starmer to F*k off. He can cherry pick from Green CON side stating it's just one seat and that the urgent need for London and UK to tackle climate change and pollution in our cities is about a lot more a few hundred votes in one by-election. 

Starmer urges Khan to ‘reflect’ on Ulez rules after Uxbridge defeat
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/starmer-urges-kahn-to-reflect-on-ulez-rules-after-uxbridge-defeat

[Mr Poppy]

As poll drums as it gets:

[Mr Poppy]

Some minor changes in the approval, best PM, etc. However, I'll post this as it's relevant to the ULEZ and concern about "reflecting" on how urgent those issues are:

[steve]

Trial date set for the seditious satsuma of May 20th 2024.
Despite the fact trial judge Cannon is exceptionally flawed this actually seems quite reasonable given the huge complexity and security aspects of much of the evidence.
The traitor could be the official republican candidate but could face incarceration before the presidential election.

[steve]

birdseye
Thanks for that I wasn't aware.
I don't actually live in the ulez zone but occasionally travel in.
I'll pass the information on to friends who do.

graham
Wow to be so pleased about a left wing Labour candidate losing their deposit you sure you're not a Tory

[steve]

birdseye
Your post made me think what actually is needed to make a Euro 5 diesel vehicle Euro 6 compliant.
The answer surprisingly is not a lot.

"A mechanical conversion of Euro 5 vehicles is not that expensive, considering fines that can be avoided with this procedure. A single Euro 6 conversion kit for cars UK price depends on the vehicle, of course, but it begins from approximately £106. The highest price tag usually doesn’t get bigger than £303. A good quality euro 5 to euro 6 converter, therefore, is a rather small investment that can render wallets a bit thicker, providing a better quality air at the same time. Seems worth the trouble indeed."

Certainly cheaper than scrapping a perfectly serviceable vehicle.

[bendo]

Jul 21, 2023 14:57:38 GMT steve said:

birdseye
Your post made me think what actually is needed to make a Euro 5 diesel vehicle Euro 6 compliant.
The answer surprisingly is not a lot.

"A mechanical conversion of Euro 5 vehicles is not that expensive, considering fines that can be avoided with this procedure. A single Euro 6 conversion kit for cars UK price depends on the vehicle, of course, but it begins from approximately £106. The highest price tag usually doesn’t get bigger than £303. A good quality euro 5 to euro 6 converter, therefore, is a rather small investment that can render wallets a bit thicker, providing a better quality air at the same time. Seems worth the trouble indeed."

Certainly cheaper than scrapping a perfectly serviceable vehicle.

I'd be surprised if you could convert a E5 diesel for that little. There have been numerous revisions to testing standards as the initial E6 standard when tested in the real world often produced emissions in excess of E5 limits.

The current E6 standard requires more accurate testing and to achieve that every manufacturer has had to go with ad blue to scrub NOX as high levels of EGR simply don't work in the real world.

energysavingtrust.org.uk/service/clean-vehicle-retrofit-accreditation-scheme/ confirmed here that there is no approved conversion for cats.

[steve]

bendo
It seemed too good to be true to be honest.

[Mr Poppy]

Repost of the polling on support for expanding ULEZ to cover the whole of London, showing the overall result and the Inner/Outer split:

[thylacine]

Jul 21, 2023 15:33:25 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Repost of the polling on support for expanding ULEZ to cover the whole of London, showing the overall result and the Inner/Outer split:

I suppose if it's not your kids being gassed you don't care so much.

[leftieliberal]

To understand the hostility to the ULEZ extension it helps to know something about the timescales. The original proposal was just for the very centre of London (the congestion charge zone) which was proposed by Boris Johnson in 2015 to come into force in 2020. Sadiq Khan brought this forward to April 2019. Then he announced the extension of the zone to the area inside the North and South Circular Roads but gave two-and-a half years notice before it came in on 21st October 2021. For the extension to the Greater London boundary (the boundary of the existing Low Emission Zone for commercial vehicles) there was just 9 months notice from last November to August 29th this year. Had Sadiq Khan stuck to the same timescale as for the expansion to the North and South Circular Roads, which would have made the start date May 2025, it is likely that there would have been much less opposition and many more drivers would have had time to change their cars for compliant models. Instead at a time of rampant inflation (and rising second-hand car prices) he chose to stick to his original timescale.

Sometimes the best is the enemy of the good.

EDIT 17:22 It is also worth reading Ayesha Hazarika's article in today's i newspaper inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/big-uxbridge-by-election-winner-boris-johnson-2495627 

There was a clear disconnect between London Mayor Sadiq Khan and local Labour MPs in those outer London seats (as well as Starmer’s office). Local MPs like Clive Efford (Eltham) have long argued that the principle is right but that it makes sense to delay implementation while there is a cost of living and fuel crisis and the cost of replacement-compliant cars is also rising. The fact that Uxbridge Labour candidate Danny Beales changed his position so late in the campaign speaks to an internal tension that should have been resolved earlier.

There are two issues here. One is how to navigate the politics around well-intentioned environmental proposals during an economic crisis. Luke Akehurst, a prominent Starmer supporter and member of the party’s NEC, has warned about the impact of robust anti-car policies, saying “they are understandably popular in inner urban areas but alienate working-class voters in outer areas of towns and cities. We need to listen as this could be the new Brexit culture wedge.” The politics of the motorist is back – certainly for the next mayoral election in London.

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 21, 2023 14:28:29 GMT birdseye said:

Jul 21, 2023 12:16:43 GMT steve said:

...Changing the subject, why should the government aka the taxpayer sunsidise people changing vehicles to meet ULEZ. Surely its time that people whould adopt some level of personal responsibility rather than expecting the taxpayer to help with almost everything.

It should be obvious that some help is needed for some people and I'll quote:

"our new scrappage scheme will support Londoners on certain low income or disability benefits, and eligible micro businesses (up to 10 employees), sole traders and charities with a registered address in London"

tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/ultra-low-emission-zone/scrappage-schemes

One criticism is that the scheme should be broader and more generous in targeted assistance and IMO those with the 'broadest shoulders and biggest polluters' should pay for helping those who need help. Specifically the screw could be tightened and/or the fines increased for those using vehicles that are still polluting but just scrape under the current requirement, noting a precedent for that has already happened:

New tighter Low Emission Zone standards for HGVs introduced in London
www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/new-tighter-lez-standards-for-hgvs-in-london

IMO it is inevitable that the screws will be tightened and I would expect most people would anticipate that by not making a minor change to scrape in under the current requirements but go a bit further to ensure they are 'future ready'.

There is a very good 2nd hand car market outside of London where people can buy vehicles from a Londoner whose vehicle doesn't meet the current/probable future ULEZ requirements - although in time I hope+expect an England/GB wide system (probably based on 'charge per mile' with the charge based on various factors such as time/location and amount of pollution the vehicle causes)

Current/future HMGs could also provide more help and have a UK wide policy. Plenty of other countries are way ahead of UK and I hope no one believes the rubbish that there is no money left. Tough choices do have to be made but the future NHS savings from reduced pollution (ie improved health) would easily repay a more generous scheme many times over - that is the case that politicians should be making (and IIRC that is the case that Khan has been making and also Boris before him) 

[jib]

Certainly an interesting set of results and certainly a kick in the teeth for Sadiq Khan's ULEZ expansion (that doesn't reflect my personal view on greening btw).

The Lib Dems will the last representatives of the soon to be defunct Somerton and Frome (the constituency of Somerton and Frome will be split into two by the election proper - the western part forming Glastonbury and Somerton and the eastern part forming Frome and East Somerset) so "defending" the result will be somewhat academic.

The Selby result very positive for Labour and the red wall Tory MPs will be extremely nervous.

A little bit of pick and mix, but not much in Sunak's paper bag in my view.

[graham]

Jul 21, 2023 14:41:29 GMT steve said:

birdseye
Thanks for that I wasn't aware.
I don't actually live in the ulez zone but occasionally travel in.
I'll pass the information on to friends who do.

graham
Wow to be so pleased about a left wing Labour candidate losing their deposit you sure you're not a Tory

Blair was no more left wing than Thatcher. His comments to be taken no more seriously than Hitler commiting himself to Peace before World War 2.

[Mr Poppy]

Folks can open up the link to see other x-breaks (and IIRC then YG do weight many of their x-breaks). Very sad to see opposition has increased but IMO it is the job of politicians to help convince the public of the need for change, not just accept polling and go for the (currently) populist vote with a specific type of voter (eg older, CON'19, Leave'16) that they hope will vote for them (or at least not the other lot) in the next GE  

[steve]

jib
On current polling the lib dems would likely win Glastonbury and Somerton and Labour Frome and Easy Somerset.

[steve]

graham

It's Goodwins law time
Try to control yourself its bizarre and rather sad hyperbole to compare Blair with Hitler.

[pjw1961]

"Statement from David Williams

'I have resigned as chair of Uxbridge and South Ruislip CLP. I am also resigning my membership of the Labour Party. Politics needs to have principles or we end up with people like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss running the country, Jeremy Corbyn gave a huge boost to the Labour Party'
11:47 am · 21 Jul 2023"

That is genuinely the weirdest bit of political analysis I have ever seen. We had 4 years of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party and we ended up with people like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss running the country. Or did I just imagine the result of the 2019 election?

[Rafwan]

pjw1961

Are you saying that Johnson/truss were consequence of Corbyn’s leadership?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Out of interest is it Lib Dem policy to scrap the child benefit cap? They aren’t keeping it are they? 

[Deleted]

Jul 21, 2023 16:35:23 GMT steve said:

graham

It's Goodwins law time
Try to control yourself its bizarre and rather sad hyperbole to compare Blair with Hitler.

It’s pathetically distasteful.

[Danny]

Jul 21, 2023 11:00:25 GMT Mr Poppy said:

However, what is slightly odd is that Starmer seems happy to U-turn on pretty much anything and everything if he sees polling supporting/opposing something (eg the 2child limit on benefits, uni fees, etc) yet seems to ignore the Remain/Rejoin polling. LDEM seem to only care about winning a few more seats and hoping to get some red briefcases of the Red Tories so surely the country is crying out for a Rejoin party?

Once a majority of conservative supporters think we should rejoin, so will starmer.

The interesting question is still whether Con will beat him to it and make it their policy first.

[Danny]

Jul 21, 2023 12:06:40 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

is there polling on how many of those who now favour rejoining, also want to see another ref in the near future?

Why under the Uk constitution would we need a referendum to rejoing the EU?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 21, 2023 17:56:37 GMT Danny said:

Jul 21, 2023 12:06:40 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

is there polling on how many of those who now favour rejoining, also want to see another ref in the near future?

Why under the Uk constitution would we need a referendum to rejoing the EU?

Well we may not have to in principle. But generally we find we wind up having one, whether it’s before or after. And given we might have to leave CPTPP before rejoining EU, and that it might involve things like committing to the Euro, be tricky not to offer a ref. at some point 

[Danny]

Jul 21, 2023 12:45:10 GMT Rafwan said:

steve

Few policies are perfectly executed, especially complex ones like climate, etc. If you wait for perfection you will never do anything. And yes there will be risks attached. Consequences rarely fall evenly and fairly. But my experience is that if you campaign with unity, and make the effort to explain and argue, and explicitly call upon people to recognise and accept consequences, they are much more likely to be prepared to run with you. But here you had the opposite, with the mayor firm in approach but the candidate weak at the knees. Of course it is going to turn a lot of people off. The right strategy here would have been aggressively pro-ULEZ. Start with a leaflet, banner-headed “ULEZ will save N lives every month, including Y in Uxbridge”.

But would it? One poster has suggested buses are now the principle polluters of London. Another, that the scheme calls for scrapping cars which in reality are no different to others being permitted. Yet another that the scheme is intended to raise revenue rather than improve air quality. Myself, I pointed out the amount of pollution produced depends not only on the vehicle but the total miles driven, so an old smokey car seldom driven might in fact be contributing less to london pollution than one nearly new which does many miles.

[Dave]

Jul 21, 2023 12:15:42 GMT graham said:

Jul 21, 2023 5:10:35 GMT Dave said:

You’re happy with a Conservative win and a Labour loss? That’s all I need to know.

No - but I do cheer the defeat of smug NeoTories such as Starmer and Blair.

By being happy that actual Tories won?

You said hahaha to a Tories win over what you (incorrectly, and far too simplistically, black-and-whitely) describe as neo-Tories.

I think you’d count yourself as left of centre. I know it’s an old and frankly tedious argument on here, but if you’re ok with an actual Tory win over Labour as you seem to be, and consider yourself loc then you’re either detached from the reality of people’s lives who you must know Labour will seek to improve more than the Tories ever, ever, EVER, will, or you’re ideologically pure in your own mind so perfection trumps gradual/ any improvement in people’s lives in the here and now, OR, and I wonder how many this applies to, you’re doing ok yourself, so who wins doesn’t really matter to you and you can afford the luxury of being happy of being ‘pure’ despite the prospect of another Tory government not affecting your world.

You said the other day you’d vote green or not vote at all. Had you lived in Uxbridge, you’d have contributed to a Tory win. Are you happy with that? Genuine question, because you seem to be because I’m loc and would never be happy if I’d had my chance to evict a Tory and failed to take it.

Anyway, I might go into details on this seat. I’ve lived there. I work there now. It’s unusual for London. I thought we’d (Labour - I know who I am) win but honestly am not surprised at the narrow loss.

[James E]

Jul 21, 2023 17:56:37 GMT Danny said:

Jul 21, 2023 12:06:40 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

is there polling on how many of those who now favour rejoining, also want to see another ref in the near future?

Why under the Uk constitution would we need a referendum to rejoing the EU?

We've just joined CPTPP without any referendum, so there is a recent  precedent. 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSy_lwQUR9Y


But to answer, Carfrew' s question, the only poll I can find ended up as a tie on the question of whether we should have another referendum in the next 5 years. 

www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-another-referendum-in-the-next-5-years-on-britain-rejoining-the-european-union/

As this is lower than the 58% who typically want to rejoin (and 61% per YouGov's most recent poll), it seems that there must be some who just want to rejoin, but don't want a referendum (as we've done with CPTPP). I would imagine that most Leavers don't want a referendum where they would be likely to lose.  

[graham]

Jul 21, 2023 16:33:44 GMT steve said:

jib
On current polling the lib dems would likely win Glastonbury and Somerton and Labour Frome and Easy Somerset.

Which is why it would have made sense for Labour to have campaigned in the Frome part of the seat. I fail to see why they failed to do so - particularly as the final result was never in real doubt.

[graham]

Jul 21, 2023 16:35:23 GMT steve said:

graham

It's Goodwins law time
Try to control yourself its bizarre and rather sad hyperbole to compare Blair with Hitler.

I am referring to his sincerity - not the detail of his policies. Both claimed to be socialists - though we know full well that neither were.

[crossbat11]

Jul 21, 2023 18:29:10 GMT graham said:

Jul 21, 2023 16:33:44 GMT steve said:

jib
On current polling the lib dems would likely win Glastonbury and Somerton and Labour Frome and Easy Somerset.

Which is why it would have made sense for Labour to have campaigned in the Frome part of the seat. I fail to see why they failed to do so - particularly as the final result was never in real doubt.

Maybe the "result was never in real doubt" because Labour declined to campaign seriously and, by doing so, sent a tacit signal to their voters to vote tactically for the Lib Dem candidate.

That's how it tends to work.