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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 21, 2023 9:59:04 GMT
It occurred to me this morning that the ULEZ issue highlights wider dilemmas for Starmer/Labour For example some think plans to ban all new oil extraction approvals shows Starmer is in the pay of just stop oil But others think him not stopping extraction for existing approvals show he is not doing enough on the environment You can apply the same argument to the new green deal, ramping up spending to £28b is seen by same as something we can't afford. Others that it is a betrayal of the earlier commitment to start with £28b a year Labours plans for making planning approval for onshore wind and new housing much easier I think is probably less divisive (atleast in the abstract) Labour’s plan for scrapping is seen by some as socialist class warfare, but I suspect for most it's either not an important issue or they support it Listening to Radio 4 this morning Rees-mogg saying people needed to vote tory to keep Socialist Starmer out. While people on the left call him a red tory In summary I can understand a nervousness in being too bold, but hope that as we get closer to the election they fo build on their existing agenda. I certainly think scrapping the two child cap is something that a good argument can be made for Martin Kettle, in his article yesterday, invoked the spirit of the Roman general Quintus Fabius Maximus, the historical figure whose name the Fabian Society adopted. The Society said this about Fabius's "rope-a-dope" cautious tactics, thought by Kettle to be similar to Starmer's now, way back in 1884 (a bit too current for Graham, probably!). They were addressing the need to tackle poverty: - “For the right moment you must wait, as Fabius did most patiently, when warring against Hannibal, though many censured his delays; but when the time comes you must strike hard, as Fabius did, or your waiting will be in vain, and fruitless.” Those of us keeping our faith in Starmer hope and believe that he will strike hard at the moment of maximum effect. Those who despair of him believe he never will. This difference goes to the heart of the nervousness on the left in British politics, I think. |
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Post by somerjohn on Jul 21, 2023 10:01:51 GMT
Apropos of nothing much, I was amused this morning to discover that UKPR2 is blocked by Manchester Central Library as containing unsuitable content:
Manchester Libraries Website Filtering Access to this web page is filtered. Our web site filtering software has blocked access to the site listed. Access to this site has been blocked because it falls into one of the filtered categories applied by Manchester Libraries. To minimise the risk of children using the Internet to access inappropriate material we use filtering software to block access to certain web sites.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 10:03:30 GMT
I'm still waiting for Carfrew to confirm the details of the Selby and Ainsty by-election result. We got Somerton quite quickly, and Uxbridge very quickly Come on Carfers, I'm on tenterhooks. 🤔🤣 Apols... went for an early morning jog and then got waylaid... |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 10:05:46 GMT
Apropos of nothing much, I was amused this morning to discover that UKPR2 is blocked by Manchester Central Library as containing unsuitable content:
Manchester Libraries Website Filtering Access to this web page is filtered. Our web site filtering software has blocked access to the site listed. Access to this site has been blocked because it falls into one of the filtered categories applied by Manchester Libraries. To minimise the risk of children using the Internet to access inappropriate material we use filtering software to block access to certain web sites.Possibly too right wing. We’ll be getting blocked by Coutts next... |
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Post by alec on Jul 21, 2023 10:13:57 GMT
Tweets that don't age well -
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2023 10:14:08 GMT
The daily express reported to be honest reasonably fairly the largest lead for wrong to leave the European union recorded in a poll by yougov this week.
It showed 57% wrong to leave 32% right.
Not happy with the result they conducted a poll of their own online readers.
It showed 62% wrong to leave 38% right.
Sunakered declares he's delivering on the " many Brexit benefits "
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 10:22:42 GMT
It occurred to me this morning that the ULEZ issue highlights wider dilemmas for Starmer/Labour For example some think plans to ban all new oil extraction approvals shows Starmer is in the pay of just stop oil But others think him not stopping extraction for existing approvals show he is not doing enough on the environment You can apply the same argument to the new green deal, ramping up spending to £28b is seen by same as something we can't afford. Others that it is a betrayal of the earlier commitment to start with £28b a year Labours plans for making planning approval for onshore wind and new housing much easier I think is probably less divisive (atleast in the abstract) Labour’s plan for scrapping is seen by some as socialist class warfare, but I suspect for most it's either not an important issue or they support it Listening to Radio 4 this morning Rees-mogg saying people needed to vote tory to keep Socialist Starmer out. While people on the left call him a red tory In summary I can understand a nervousness in being too bold, but hope that as we get closer to the election they fo build on their existing agenda. I certainly think scrapping the two child cap is something that a good argument can be made for Those of us keeping our faith in Starmer hope and believe that he will strike hard at the moment of maximum effect. Those who despair of him believe he never will. This difference goes to the heart of the nervousness on the left in British politics, I think. Well he’s been striking hard at the lefties for quite a while… |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 21, 2023 10:24:19 GMT
I'm still waiting for Carfrew to confirm the details of the Selby and Ainsty by-election result. We got Somerton quite quickly, and Uxbridge very quickly Come on Carfers, I'm on tenterhooks. 🤔🤣 Apols... went for an early morning jog and then got waylaid... Waylaid? I hope you've reported the incident. Jogger harassment is a very under-reported crime. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 10:27:03 GMT
Apols... went for an early morning jog and then got waylaid... Waylaid? I hope you've reported the incident. well the squirrels mocked me as per… but I got waylaid afterwards. And got carried away making some music |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 10:30:19 GMT
So the less-well-off should be the ones to pay for green policies? This was an own-goal by Labour, though judging by Angela Rayner's comments this morning she gets it. I’ve been bothered about pollution for yonks, as some may recall from the old board. And not just engine emissions, but particulates from tyres, roads and brakes etc.. But then again there was an article on one of the news sites yesterday, forget which, about driving becoming a rich person’s game. Rather tricky affair… |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 10:34:04 GMT
The daily express reported to be honest reasonably fairly the largest lead for wrong to leave the European union recorded in a poll by yougov this week. It showed 57% wrong to leave 32% right. Not happy with the result they conducted a poll of their own online readers. It showed 62% wrong to leave 38% right. Sunakered declares he's delivering on the " many Brexit benefits " one of the Brexit benefits might be that of making people want to rejoin |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 21, 2023 10:36:26 GMT
shevii 'A number of years ago solidly left wing Greater Manchester residents had a referendum on a congestion charge for the city centre and a very generous package for public transport in exchange and it was rejected, despite the fact that very few people would have been hit by a congestion charge very often. Makes you despair at people's choice which aren't even necessarily based on self interest if they stopped to think that it wouldn't affect them in any way.' leftieliberal 'There are many people in outer London who see the ULEZ extension purely as a money-making scheme to address the black hole in TfL finances since covid.' lululemonmustdobetter '...my children currently are having to put up with an unnecessary level of pollution which is likely to impact their health.' The evidence of the harms caused by air pollution is very clear and although we know that most people tend to find personal stories more compelling, I've certainly read plenty of personal accounts that reinforce the hard data. So the material for a public information campaign to persuade people of the benefits of pollution-reducing measures is there. But is it being used? I'd estimate that I live within 4km of the ULEZ boundary near me, but I didn't get any leaflet through my door expounding the benefits, with some heart-warming stories of children whose asthma has cleared up, exmpt vehicles, examples of how to take advantage of scrappage schemes etc. I'm sure some of this info is available if you go to a website, but that requires people to be motivated to seek the information. You can't scan a QR code from your car... shevii - are you able to you comment on the referendum campaign in Manchester? Did Burnham do a good job of communicating the case for a congestion charge? Even after Khan's extension to the scrappage scheme in June to allow more people on benefits to claim, the £110 million total pot available (which has not changed) will only cover 55,000 cars at the maximum payment level of £2k per car. That's about 25% of the total. When you consider that the average cost of a ULEZ compliant car has gone up by over £5k since 2021, it's going to be pretty difficult for those on benefits to be able to afford to replace them. The scrappage scheme needs to be much more generous. It's not just better promotion of the benefits of low-emission cars; it's making it possible for people to afford to change to them. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 21, 2023 10:41:15 GMT
Hi athena , The evidence of the harms caused by air pollution is very clear and although we know that most people tend to find personal stories more compelling, I've certainly read plenty of personal accounts that reinforce the hard data. So the material for a public information campaign to persuade people of the benefits of pollution-reducing measures is there. But is it being used? I'd estimate that I live within 4km of the ULEZ boundary near me, but I didn't get any leaflet through my door expounding the benefits, with some heart-warming stories of children whose asthma has cleared up, exmpt vehicles, examples of how to take advantage of scrappage schemes etc. I'm sure some of this info is available if you go to a website, but that requires people to be motivated to seek the information. You can't scan a QR code from your car...
I would very much agree that there is a dire need for a public information campaign on this topic. We live right on the edge of the extended boundary (just inside it). Our friends outside the boundary have received no information at all on it - apart from local news etc. Some of then are against it despite having children as well as cars that aren't going to be subject to paying a charge (wealthy area, newer cars). Those who are against are what I would classify as natural Tory voters, but I am sure if the Tory stance changed on this topic so would theirs's. I just find it all too depressing as we cant get our act together on this - to me its not a party political issue but something we need to do as a society for the benefit of all. This topic wont really hamper Labour's chances of winning the next GE (its still about a 7% swing to Labour in London where they dominate anyway), but it will impact the willingness of Labour to adopt and implement certain policies. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 21, 2023 10:45:19 GMT
Andrew Marr on the by-elections www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2023/07/the-by-elections-were-a-warning-to-sunak-and-starmerKhan’s expansion of central London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) to the “doughnut” of outer boroughs was clearly causing problems from the start of Labour’s Uxbridge campaign. Its impressive candidate, Danny Beales, distanced himself from the £12.50-a-day charge, which will disproportionately affect older and poorer drivers with older cars. Keir Starmer leaned in Beales’s direction, not Khan’s, by saying now was not the right time to extend Ulez.With its web of fines, fees and number-plate recognition cameras, this felt to many voters like a sly tax rather than a public health measure. So Starmer has been denied the double victory he wanted and will be feeling very irritated indeed with Khan. (And how Boris Johnson, who stood down in Uxbridge, will be rueing a missed opportunity to reboot his political career…)
Khan has made it much harder to travel around the capital by car and almost every taxi driver is a vocal campaigner against him. There is often something self-righteous about his tone that is not going down well in London. Given the pro-Trump, pro-Johnson views of Susan Hall, the newly-selected Tory mayoral candidate, Khan is also probably a lucky general. But he should be reflecting deeply on the Uxbridge result.The part I have quoted is that referring to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip election. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 21, 2023 10:46:19 GMT
Those of us keeping our faith in Starmer hope and believe that he will strike hard at the moment of maximum effect. Those who despair of him believe he never will. This difference goes to the heart of the nervousness on the left in British politics, I think. Well he’s been striking hard at the lefties for quite a while… and Starmer doesn't support strikes - kicking out LAB folks who do Whilst the below tweet is aimed at likes of Ashworth, who at least has the excuse that he wants to keep his job, avoid Sir Keith Stalin purge, and take the extra pay he'd get as a cabinet minister after GE'24, then it covers the issue of 'sock puppets': Every party has their 'sock puppets' and in terms of polling we sometimes talk about 'floors' for specific parties in terms of %s, however, most folks (at least on the RoC side, even some of whom are CON MPs) will say a policy/approach is shit if they think it is is shit (eg CON's opposition to ULEZ expansion in my case) TBC how long cognitive dissonance lasts for 'genuine' LoCs but the sock puppets will have their work cut out into a GE when the attention is not just about how bad CON (and the economy) was mid-term but why should I get out of bed to vote for the Red version of the Tory Party? Jeesh, I'm RoC but I increasingly find myself to the Left (and Green) of Starmer-LAB. What that says for LAB'19 who supported Corbyn but now support Starmer is something that only they can answer. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 21, 2023 10:57:51 GMT
athena It was 2008 so before Burham's time as mayor but wiki has a page on it. All council areas rejected it heavily but the thing about this is that half the people in the outer areas probably never go to Manchester anyway and Machester itself had the highest yes vote (not saying a lot @ 28%). Even the proverbial "little old lady" I spoke to at the bus stop seemed to have doubts and she'd have been someone who benefited from better local transport. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_congestion_charge#:~:text=The%20referendum%20needed%20to%20gain,the%20proposals%20by%20large%20majorities.&text=As%20a%20result%20of%20this,proposal%20for%20Manchester%20was%20dropped.
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 21, 2023 10:58:55 GMT
ULEZ And what, precisely, was Labour’s policy? The mayor (correctly) says we should have it. But the local candidate says it is not the right time; shilly-shallying procrastination. The leader (correctly) says we must keep it. But now the deputy leader says we must “listen to people” (code for do whatever “they” say). Big mistake, Angela, most out of character. So once again, Labour comes across as spongy and divided. No wonder people don’t vote for it. As pjw1961 knows, I always say we must learn the lessons of history … |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 21, 2023 11:00:25 GMT
The daily express reported to be honest reasonably fairly the largest lead for wrong to leave the European union recorded in a poll by yougov this week. It showed 57% wrong to leave 32% right. Not happy with the result they conducted a poll of their own online readers. It showed 62% wrong to leave 38% right. Sunakered declares he's delivering on the " many Brexit benefits " one of the Brexit benefits might be making people want to rejoin As usual then I suggest that those 'Carry on Moaning' might want to actually do something about it rather than 'Carry on Moaning'. However, what is slightly odd is that Starmer seems happy to U-turn on pretty much anything and everything if he sees polling supporting/opposing something (eg the 2child limit on benefits, uni fees, etc) yet seems to ignore the Remain/Rejoin polling. LDEM seem to only care about winning a few more seats and hoping to get some red briefcases of the Red Tories so surely the country is crying out for a Rejoin party? NB However, looking at U&SR where folks could have given a protest vote to a 2nd Ref/Rejoin party then: Count Binface: 190, 0.6% Rejoin EU: 105, 0.3% Piers Corbyn: 101, 0.3% True&Fair (Gina Miller): couldn't be bothered A nutter like Laurence Fox got more than all the 2nd Ref/Rejoin parties combined (and more than LDEM, although the Orange Tories likely voted for the Red Tory - noting that LAB candidate opposed ULEZ expansion) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_by-electionHence why I occasionally post the 'Most Important Issues' polling. Beyond some fanatics on social media then few people care about Brexit anymore. Most folks have moved on and perhaps Sir Keith and Sir Ed have realised that? |
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Post by lens on Jul 21, 2023 11:01:06 GMT
Of course not, just that the less well off shouldn't bear the brunt of the cost. All policies at this time need to take into account the cost-of-living crisis.
Again, what else do you think Khan should do given the authority and resources he currently has? Firstly, I live in Hillingdon, albeit not in the Uxbridge consitituency and own a 17 year old diesel. Secondly, as may be gathered from some previous posts, I'm very pro electric cars and environmental issues generally. But Khan's approach is simply wrong. For many points of view. I'm already keen to trade my diesel in for electric, but would prefer to wait a year or two, expecting improvements to such to start happening faster and faster, let alone the national charging infrastructure. The problem with ULEZ expansion is that it won't encourage zero emission uptake - but force people to buy another (newer) diesel or electric which is only mildly less polluting - but compliant. OK, my car is 17 years old and effectively near end of life anyway - a friend was forced to get rid of his 7 year old car. That is just a disproportinate measure. And whilst ULEZ was undoubtably a good idea in central London, the air quality in such as Hillingdon is far better anyway - better even than the current quality in the centre of London. And the problem is withering on the vine anyway. Khan's own figures say that it will only apply to about 10% of vehicles - which are the ones coming up for replacement anyway. So why force the issue, and force it such that those most disadvantaged are those who will feel the real economic hardship right in the middle of severe economic problems!!? It's crazy. There is also a strong feeling that it won't stop here - as the number of non-compliant cars (and revenue) falls, the bar will be lowered to include vehicles currently exempt. As for "what else could Khan do"? , then off the top of my head further restrictions in the central zone would be an obvious thought. Maybe doubling the charge for cars such as mine? (And such wouldn't require the huge capital spend on hundreds of new cameras.) Putting even more resources into electric charging facilities? Speeding up the transition away from diesel on Tfl buses? (Which are what I notice most as regards polluting the air.) Boris used the Mayor of London role as a stepping stone to PM and there is a suspicion Khan may have been hoping for the same in the future. If so, then ULEZ expansion may have been a big mistake for him, and may have fatally tarnished his name within Labour for the future - especially losing them an important by-election. (And believe me, living close to the constituency, ULEZ more than tipped the balance.) |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 21, 2023 11:08:56 GMT
Rafwan I would have been delighted if the exit poll had been right. But it wasn't. I know there is a brilliant riposte to your enigmatic response to my incisive challenge to your bewildering claim about my considered analyses. And I know it would silence you for good on this question. But I just can’t seem to find where it is. I will keep you posted. And that is my final word on the matter … |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 21, 2023 11:14:35 GMT
Warne working off some post-traumatic stress, I think.
That's all I can really take from his latest stream of consciousness gibberish.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 21, 2023 11:22:00 GMT
leftieliberal
Andrew Marr spot on with that analysis of the Uxbridge result, I think.
Incidentally, for all those, like me, who became disillusioned with Marr over his many years of hosting his increasingly bland Sunday morning show, and his dreadful interviewing style, he is now a man reborn.
Free of the BBC, and writing and YouTube blogging for the New Statesman now, he has returned to his centre left journalistic roots.
He is, and always was, a fine newspaper journalist and writer. TV wasn't really his natural format, although I guess the money was very seductive.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 21, 2023 11:22:05 GMT
Selby was extraordinary and it's very welcoming that we have a 25 year old MP in the Commons now. If only there were many more, but this is a start. Historic by election win for Labour and a gargantuan swing to them too in electoral territory thought a no-go zone for the party. Like Uxbridge, some local factors no doubt, and the seat is likely to return to the Tories next year, but it's just the sort of win to boost self-confidence and belief in an opposition's ranks and to spook incumbents to the core. I believe that there are boundary changes in Selby that make the new seat significantly less Conservative than the current iteration. |
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Post by Mark on Jul 21, 2023 11:27:14 GMT
The result in Uxbridge, if it was a result of decision to extend ULEZ, is extremely depressing for anyone who is serious about taking action on the environment. The willingness of the Tories to exploit the issues rather than come to a consensus on such policies, will in effect take us back about a decade. Labour, who are showing no appetite to taking principled stands, are now likely to backtrack on the issue. Future generations will curse us. This. Exactly this. If Labour's failure to take Uxbridge, while getting Selby, does give them pause for thought, as suggested upthread, I worry about the direction of travel that resuts from said pause. |
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 21, 2023 11:34:27 GMT
Apropos of nothing much, I was amused this morning to discover that UKPR2 is blocked by Manchester Central Library as containing unsuitable content:
Manchester Libraries Website Filtering Access to this web page is filtered. Our web site filtering software has blocked access to the site listed. Access to this site has been blocked because it falls into one of the filtered categories applied by Manchester Libraries. To minimise the risk of children using the Internet to access inappropriate material we use filtering software to block access to certain web sites.Some of Danny's prior posts on why its ok to grope people and also the age of sexual consent might qualify on that ruling. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 21, 2023 11:35:24 GMT
YG split out CON VI, CON'19 and 'wayward' CON'19 voters some of whom have moved to LAB, some to RUK...
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 21, 2023 11:48:18 GMT
one of the Brexit benefits might be making people want to rejoin As usual then I suggest that those 'Carry on Moaning' might want to actually do something about it rather than 'Carry on Moaning'. However, what is slightly odd is that Starmer seems happy to U-turn on pretty much anything and everything if he sees polling supporting/opposing something (eg the 2child limit on benefits, uni fees, etc) yet seems to ignore the Remain/Rejoin polling. LDEM seem to only care about winning a few more seats and hoping to get some red briefcases of the Red Tories so surely the country is crying out for a Rejoin party? Well there’s the argument that Starmer might be going for the swing voters in marginals who supposedly favour leave. But it’s kind of hard to know what he really plans to do any more. (It’s more of a “Lucky Dip” party atm…) |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 21, 2023 11:53:21 GMT
As usual then I suggest that those 'Carry on Moaning' might want to actually do something about it rather than 'Carry on Moaning'. However, what is slightly odd is that Starmer seems happy to U-turn on pretty much anything and everything if he sees polling supporting/opposing something (eg the 2child limit on benefits, uni fees, etc) yet seems to ignore the Remain/Rejoin polling. LDEM seem to only care about winning a few more seats and hoping to get some red briefcases of the Red Tories so surely the country is crying out for a Rejoin party? Well there’s the argument that Starmer might be going for the swing voters in marginals who supposedly favour leave. But it’s kind of hard to know what he really plans to do any more. (It’s more of a “Lucky Dip” party atm…) I was being somewhat sarcastic. I'll refer to the second part of the post you quoted from: one of the Brexit benefits might be making people want to rejoin ... NB However, looking at U&SR where folks could have given a protest vote to a 2nd Ref/Rejoin party then: Count Binface: 190, 0.6% Rejoin EU: 105, 0.3% Piers Corbyn: 101, 0.3% True&Fair (Gina Miller): couldn't be bothered A nutter like Laurence Fox got more than all the 2nd Ref/Rejoin parties combined (and more than LDEM, although the Orange Tories likely voted for the Red Tory - noting that LAB candidate opposed ULEZ expansion) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_by-electionHence why I occasionally post the 'Most Important Issues' polling. Beyond some fanatics on social media then few people care about Brexit anymore. Most folks have moved on and perhaps Sir Keith and Sir Ed have realised that? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 21, 2023 11:55:25 GMT
The result in Uxbridge, if it was a result of decision to extend ULEZ, is extremely depressing for anyone who is serious about taking action on the environment. The willingness of the Tories to exploit the issues rather than come to a consensus on such policies, will in effect take us back about a decade. Labour, who are showing no appetite to taking principled stands, are now likely to backtrack on the issue. Future generations will curse us. This. Exactly this. If Labour's failure to take Uxbridge, while getting Selby, does give them pause for thought, as suggested upthread, I worry about the direction of travel that resuts from said pause. The immediate problem is for Sadiq khan. He will face re-election soon advocating a policy that is clearly wildly unpopular in outer London. If the outer areas vote heavily against him in what is now a FPTP election he may well lose. The temptation to 'rethink' this - regardless of however worthwhile it is - is going to very strong. |
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Post by James E on Jul 21, 2023 12:01:39 GMT
Selby was extraordinary and it's very welcoming that we have a 25 year old MP in the Commons now. If only there were many more, but this is a start. Historic by election win for Labour and a gargantuan swing to them too in electoral territory thought a no-go zone for the party. Like Uxbridge, some local factors no doubt, and the seat is likely to return to the Tories next year, but it's just the sort of win to boost self-confidence and belief in an opposition's ranks and to spook incumbents to the core. I believe that there are boundary changes in Selby that make the new seat significantly less Conservative than the current iteration. Electoral calculus have Labour 6.3% ahead in their projection for Selby and Ainsty, and 15.5% for the newly re-drawn Selby constituency. So I'd guess that the notional Conservative majority is around 25% rather than 35% for Selby and Ainsty. With Labour doing better in target seats than those they already hold, it's one that I'd expect to be gained with around an 9-10% overall lead. One really extraordinary aspect of yesterday's by -elections: all of the three seats contested look like they will still form part of the battleground for the next General Election. Given the size of the LibDem majority in Somerton and Froom, I'd make them marginal favourites there, while ULEZ may be less of an issue in U&SR in a year's time. |
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