16-JUL 2023 : LAB: 46% / CON: 26% / LDEM: 11% / REF: 6%

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 11:13:22 GMT neilj said:

Jul 19, 2023 8:57:36 GMT neilj said:

I think Starmer must be on this site, he has gone on Sunak’s unfunded spending promises at PMQs

Well of course some of us do have political wisdom to impart:

Dear Sir Kid Starver,
In the interests of being elected I would suggest that you bring back the death penalty for certain cases, bring in enforced deportation of foreign criminals when their sentences have been served, build more prisons, and increase defence spending. That should sort it.

Yours sincerely

Mercian

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 11:16:43 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 19, 2023 11:09:28 GMT pjw1961 said:

If you are worried about inflation, the key is to invest in things that will reduce inflation. Like cheaper energy. Cheaper housing etc.
(And it’s not necessarily a minority view, unless a majority were against energy subsidies etc.)

Doesn't renewable energy have to be subsidised? Hence it would otherwise be usually more expensive than other energy? 

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 12:08:35 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 19, 2023 11:51:27 GMT moby said:

Nonsense, it was the public.

Oh, so if it’s the public then you can’t credit Starmer either. But of course polling indicates a response to particular things, like the calamity of Truss. Starmer’s actions seem more tailored to the views of swing voters in marginals than the general electorate anyway. For example, he has rowed back on nationalisating utilities, but even a lot of Tories now support that. (It’s only 8% of the public who are against, most of them on this board!)

Someone on this board recently advocated just creating a government player in the market for things like energy. That seems like a good idea so long as it's not subsidised to undercut real companies. Water might be one where renationalisation could be justified because there isn't the same ability to shop around. 

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 14:19:54 GMT steve said:

Little Nigel Fromage is still having a tantrum about his bank account.

Apparently poor Nige left ‘disgusted and appalled’ by 40-page Coutts memo labelling him ‘racist’.

I mean who would have described Foridge as a racist just because he said the entire population of Turkey were about to arrive in brexitania to concurrently steal your jobs, claim benefits , steal everyone's houses while living for free in hotels and something involving fish!

He's still not getting his bank account back he's not got enough money.

Can you provide a link to the bit I've highlighted? Thought not.

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 17:56:40 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Secret of Covid ‘super dodgers’ explained by gene that treats virus like common cold
Scientists discover people with certain immune systems eight times less likely to report symptoms even if they were infected by coronavirus

ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/92853/thread

You'll set Danny and alec off again. Can't you put this stuff on the Covid thread?

Reading ahead - too late you already have.

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 21:38:21 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 19, 2023 21:18:07 GMT @isa said:

And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching.

By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome.

I knew it was Frome as in broom, partly because I can recite the legend of how Harold Gimblett's initial first-class innings came about and what happened - and even though the victims were Essex. 

Edit - in the extremely unlikely event that anyone insists on me explaining that, I will put it on the sport thread. Probably a digression too far. 

Surely no Englishman or intelligent Briton would need it explaining. 

[mercian]

Jul 19, 2023 23:40:07 GMT @isa said:

Blair questioned by Peston on ITV earlier about KS dropping commitments due to parlous economic situation.

Blair said "our commitments were really limited before we came into power" (verbatim). Didn't seem to do him much harm in '97 as I recall.

The only commitment I can remember was to keep to Tory spending plans for 2 years. This lulled enough people into voting Labour because they seemed safe for once.

[neilj]

alec
"Sounds like Farage may have a point on his ejection from Coutts. The evidence appears to show that he was ditched by them because of his political views"

From looking at the document itself rather than Farages selective leaking of it there were two stages

The first was whether the relationship with Farage was commercially viable. The decision was made that it wasn't commercially viable and hadn't been for some timw

When it was decided he wasn't commercially viable they also looked at reputational issues, which Farage failed at aswell

As a result of having failed both tests they terminated his account with Coutts, but did offer him an account with their sister company NatWest, which many other not so financially solvent people bank with

Obviously the man of the people Farage didn't want to slum it with us plebs

[neilj]

Not sure how much of this is expectation management on the part of the Tories

[steve]

mercian
Sorry I wasn't here instantly to reply to you at 3am in the morning!
Here's an example of Fromage's racist b.s.
It took all of two seconds to find.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/nigel-farage-defends-ukip-breaking-point-poster-queue-of-migrants

If you don't like the guardian here's a source you might prefer
www.express.co.uk/news/uk/661387/Migrant-crisis-Nigel-Farage-Turkey-EU-visa-free-travel
And here's an academic consideration of his claims
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/unfounded-claim-turkey-swing-brexit-referendum/www

There's a rich back catalogue of his ludicrous claims about Turkey it's easy to find.

Happy to help!

[steve]

Be afraid!
Attachment Deleted

[neilj]

Hard to know whether it's the Express who are economically illiterate or Jeremy Hunt.
Or just a barefaced lie to put the blame on shops and off the tories on by-election day

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 20, 2023 5:40:57 GMT steve said:

Be afraid!
View Attachment

It might already have happened Steve! 😲

[crossbat11]

I'm hearing all the shops around here have sold out of popcorn.

Almost unprecedented, apparently.

[alec]

Just posting a fascinating study on the covid thread showing plummeting rates of suicide and improved mental health in children during school closure periods. It's complex, and not an argument for lockdowns, but it does show some of the myths for what they are.

[crossbat11]

Jul 19, 2023 22:05:57 GMT eor said:

Jul 19, 2023 21:37:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

Frome Town used to play in the same league as Redditch United and I was one of the few patrons of the Valley Stadium who pronounced their name correctly on the occasion they visited the Mighty Reds home ground. Most of the locals were totally unfamiliar with the Somerset town. "Whom we a playin today, Jim?" "Some bloody place in Wurzel land, I think Baz.", replied Jim. "They'm a come in effin tractors "

😉😆

Friend of mine at university was a Cheltenham Town fan (think they were still non-league then but made the promised land not long after?). Anyway, you just made me think of him and one of his favourite chants;

"We can't read an' we can't write an' that don't really ma'er. Cos we all come from Cheltnamshire an' we can drive a tra'or!" 

Heard that chant many a time at Whaddon Road. Loaded with regional meaning, not least the antipathy towards the town and citizens of nearby Gloucester. Hence their renaming of the county. Can't even bring themselves to mention the town's name. Cheltenham Town v Gloucester City was a tasty fixture in the old days of the Southern League.

I lived in Redditchshire for many years and know how these things work.

[neilj]

Redfield Wilton Constituency and Regional vote for Wales

[steve]

alec
Suicide rates in the last two years have been among the highest this century.

Suicide is the biggest single cause of death amongst men under 55 and the third highest among children and young people under 25.

Attachment Deleted

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 20, 2023 0:50:27 GMT mercian said:

Jul 19, 2023 10:42:36 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Well obviously “committed” Tory voters are likely to vote Tory, just as committed Labour voters likely vote Labour. Thus the battle is over the less committed. Over the Tories who might vote New Labour, or UKIP, or LD say. Or who may just decide to stay at home.

On a point of definition - do you define Tories as those who voted Tory at GE 2019? If so and one of them voted for say LD at the next GE would they then be classed as a LD?  If the definition is more nuanced than that, what does define a Tory? Is it someone who votes Tory 50% of the time and various other parties 50%, or Tory 60%, 70% or what?  Asking for a friend. 

IMO a 'Tory' is someone who holds generally Tory values and votes for a party with those values/policies. 'Tory' has evolved over time so often has a prefix (eg Blue/Red or 'New Model')

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tory

As for "committed" voters then x-breaks in polling show partisan loyalty from the last GE. Those currently suggest LAB have the most "committed" voters and CON are seeing very high churn - although a lot of that is to DK/WNV and might 'come home' by GE'24?

By-elections receive low turnout and are a 'free' protest vote against whoever is in HMG so have little 'predictive' power IMO (and there is a long history of that). TBC if LAB'19 are as "committed" in GE'24 as they are currently showing in LAB'19 x-breaks but Starmer seems more interested in winning over 'Soft' Tories to the 'Red' Tory party than appealing to genuine LoCs/Greens.

[crossbat11]

neilj

Fear not. Like Sunak, I'm "on it" in terms of all this inflation mullarkey.
I've just written to the Treasury to report our local convenience store. I went in to buy some popcorn this morning (they'd sold out) and was outraged to see that all their prices were just as they were two days ago. On or two had even risen. I asked the sullen looking young girl behind the counter why they hadn't passed on the inflation cut of 0.8% to their customers. I mean, that's 20p off a decent bottle of scotch.

She advised me to come back in an hour and talk to the Manager.

Sod that, I've reported the profiteering retail outlet to Hunt's boys instead. His Price Control squad will be making them a visit soon, I expect.

[crossbat11]

Jul 20, 2023 7:14:17 GMT neilj said:

Redfield Wilton Constituency and Regional vote for Wales

The venerable poster wb61 of this parish not included in the polling sample, obviously.

🤔😉

[alec]

steve - "Suicide rates in the last two years have been among the highest this century."

Yup. That's what you get for 13 years of evil Tory austerity!

That's how this works, isn't it?

[wb61]

Jul 19, 2023 17:13:37 GMT steve said:

wb61
Depending on when the offence of causing death by dangerous driving occurred the maximum sentence was 14 years before June 2022 since then it's been a maximum not a mandatory life sentence.The other exceptionally serious and aggrevating elements would mitigate any leniency for a guilty plea
The tariff maximum is 18 years however this didn't prevent the judge imposing a life rather than a determinate sentence , that way even if the defendant pleaded guilty they would serve a minimum of the full 12 years imposed , a 12 year minimum on a life sentence in these circumstances would in my opinion be unduly lenient even given the guilty plea 15 years minimum term would seem appropriate.
I strongly suspect that's what will happen.

This was within the judges remit and can be appealed by the attorney general.

As it stands with time served on remand the individual could be released from prison at the age of 28 .

Hi Steve, its not quite as simple as that first the Judge must apply the sentencing principles set out in the Sentencing Act 2020 the judge is bound to apply the guidelines 
section 59(1) provides:

Every court—

(a)must, in sentencing an offender, follow any sentencing guidelines which are relevant to the offender's case, and

(b)must, in exercising any other function relating to the sentencing of offenders, follow any sentencing guidelines which are relevant to the exercise of the function,unless the court is satisfied that it would be contrary to the interests of justice to do so.

Section 60(2) provides:
The principal guidelines duty includes a duty to impose on the offender, in accordance with the offence-specific guidelines, a sentence which is within the offence range.

and Section 231(2) provides:

The custodial sentence must be for the shortest term (not exceeding the permitted maximum) that in the opinion of the court is commensurate with the seriousness of—

(a)the offence, or

(b)the combination of the offence and one or more offences associated with it.

To take an offence outside the guidelines 

Judges are required to give reasons and explain their sentences, no doubt the sentencing remarks for this sentence will become available at some point. The difficulty with imposing life is that even if that is done the Judge must pass a determinate period as a minimum, that still requires the Judge to take account of the guilty plea and the guidelines. There is also the question, although the consequences are appalling and sentencing must take account of consequences that is what the harm element of the guidelines deal with, however the other side is the culpability aspect which also must be taken account of. It begs the question what is to be done with the individual who has aggravated the culpability side of the equation by e.g. having taken drink or drugs and where the harm is the same. 

Of course the Judge could have stepped outside the guidelines but s/he would then have to justify such a step and it is to be remembered there are far more appeals about sentence that is too long than one which is too short. You may well be right that this calls for an Attorney General's reference as the Court of Appeal can then give guidance on how to approach this new level of maximum sentence which has increased, as you say, from 14 years to Life.

I am not expressing any opinion as to the length of this sentence just indicating the process, which is governed by statute. 

EDIT: Oh and I forgot the reduction of sentence for a Guilty Plea is mandatory unless passing an extended sentence for someone who falls within the dangerous offender category or where one of the minimum sentences for particular offences applies. 

[graham]

Jul 20, 2023 7:39:57 GMT alec said:

steve - "Suicide rates in the last two years have been among the highest this century."

Yup. That's what you get for 13 years of evil Tory austerity!

That's how this works, isn't it?

Doubtless evil Starmer/Reeves austerity will have the same impact.

[wb61]

This shows an interesting statistic on sentencing:


www.statista.com/statistics/1100628/prison-sentence-length-in-england-and-wales-over-time/#:~:text=The%20average%20length%20of%20a,months%20in%20the%20year%202000.

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 17:54:47 GMT Mr Poppy said:

folks who pay a lot of tax are a lot more geographical mobile these days.

Maybe its more the case that people with a lot of wealth now enjoy laws and financial systems which enable them to shelter that wealth from taxes much more easily. Whereas I suggest, if you are that wealthy then what the money will buy for you is the ability to live where you want. Why does anyone suggest that people will move to a country they do not want to live in, just to be a bit more wealthy? Thats crazy thinking!

it was totally predictable that ultra low interest rates would boost inflation (first via assets and then more generally once economic demand got going again).

But they didnt! ten years of ultra low interest failed to cause any inflation. The inflation only happened when central banks CHOSE to end QE and increase interest rates. If you increase interest rates, then it feeds directly into CREATING inflation!

And creating a certain amount of inflation was in fact a deliberate and plainly stated goal of central bankers. It may be they have massively over shot.

[expatr]

Jul 20, 2023 7:57:04 GMT wb61 said:

This shows an interesting statistic on sentencing:


www.statista.com/statistics/1100628/prison-sentence-length-in-england-and-wales-over-time/#:~:text=The%20average%20length%20of%20a,months%20in%20the%20year%202000.

Interesting but as far as I can see this is not weighted by type of offence. You would get that rapid increase if you (e.g.) eliminated short prison sentences for non-violent minor offences (e.g. possession of small amounts of cannabis)  Do we know whether this is stricter sentencing for similar offences

[neilj]

[quote author="steve"
'Suicide rates in the last two years have been among the highest this century'

Steve not sure that's right,suicide went down in 2020, maybe due to late registration. Then they did go up in 2021, but that was also due to catching up with the late registrations from 2020. Taking the two years together they actually seem a little below average, or atleast no evidence of a rise
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/suicidesintheunitedkingdom/2021registrations
'In 2021, there were 5,583 suicides registered in England and Wales, equivalent to a rate of 10.7 deaths per 100,000 people; while this was statistically significantly higher than the 2020 rate of 10.0 deaths per 100,000 people, it was consistent with the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic rates in 2019 and 2018.

The fall in the suicide rate in 2020 was likely to have been driven by a decrease in male suicides at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and delays in death registrations because of the pandemic.

The latest figures include deaths that occurred in 2020 and were subsequently registered in 2021 owing to disruption to coroners’ inquests; this provides evidence that the suicide rate did not increase because of the coronavirus pandemic.'

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 18:57:19 GMT crossbat11 said:

Ironically, Walker's son is a Worcester MP now.

What do you mean irony? Its simply an example of the hereditary principle of passing power from father to son which still applies in the UK. See the rest of the cabinet. Positions bought and paid for. Little different to Samuel Pepys buying his position administering the navy in the 1600s.

[wb61]

Jul 20, 2023 8:03:59 GMT expatr said:

Jul 20, 2023 7:57:04 GMT wb61 said:

This shows an interesting statistic on sentencing:


www.statista.com/statistics/1100628/prison-sentence-length-in-england-and-wales-over-time/#:~:text=The%20average%20length%20of%20a,months%20in%20the%20year%202000.

Interesting but as far as I can see this is not weighted by type of offence. You would get that rapid increase if you (e.g.) eliminated short prison sentences for non-violent minor offences (e.g. possession of small amounts of cannabis)  Do we know whether this is stricter sentencing for similar offences

There is more information here

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04334/SN04334.pdf
not sure it covers the ground you refer to (I haven't time to read it this morning)