16-JUL 2023 : LAB: 46% / CON: 26% / LDEM: 11% / REF: 6%

[crossbat11]

Jul 20, 2023 8:06:00 GMT Danny said:

Jul 19, 2023 18:57:19 GMT crossbat11 said:

Ironically, Walker's son is a Worcester MP now.

What do you mean irony? Its simply an example of the hereditary principle of passing power from father to son which still applies in the UK. See the rest of the cabinet. Positions bought and paid for. Little different to Samuel Pepys buying his position administering the navy in the 1600s.

Yes, hereditary MPs now. Who'd have thought it? Tony Benn started it.

Rees-Mogg may be scouring six safe Tory seats as we speak. He may be hard pressed to find that many soon.

[alec]

steve - more seriously, to avoid any unintentional myth making - www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlysuicidedeathregistrationsinengland/2001to2021registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter4octtodec2022provisionaldata

Fig 1 - "There is no evidence that the number of suicides has increased since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic"

2020 and 2021 saw declines in suicides. They seem to have increased in 22, when we had far more covid, and far fewer mitigations.

[steve]

neilj

Those figure are correct , they are among the highest this century, with a growing population they also as a percentage represent an increase in individual cases even without a percentage increase.

[steve]

alec
I didn't say they had increased significantly since 2019,just that the rates are among the highest this century, suicide rates overall are significantly lower than in the 1980's when more availability of firearms meant that suicide by gun was substantial.
There have been 15 years This century when the rates were lower than in 20-22

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 19:12:16 GMT pjw1961 said:

What do you think the cost of the two children he has left permanently and seriously brain damaged might be? What might the dead woman and her unborn child have gone on to contribute to the world? My answer to your question "Do we really need to make an example of giving him a big sentence?" is an unequivocal yes. 

This is the exact same debate as about lockdown.

Interventions cost the uk about £1 trillion combining public and private losses. Instead, we could have spent £1 trillion investing in the NHS and saved many more lives. That much was obvious back in 2020 when someone in the NHS wrote a report on how not cost effective were the actions against covid purely in terms of generous estimates of lives saved. Never mind much less generous ones I might have made. Good government is always about effective spending, not spending for the look of it. We had a lot of spending for the look of it during covid, and some of that has even been admitted (see released ministerial messages).

So here locking him up for life might cost 2.5 million based upon average prison costs. Thats forgetting that if free he would very likely take a job and earn quite a lot for the nation. The cost of care for the injured or bereaved is what it is and cannot be changed by anything you now do to the driver. The only possible gains from locking him up are to keep him isolated from society during which time he will not repeat this, rehabilitate him so that when released he will not repeat this, give mental satisfaction to those who suffered loss, discourage others from doing as he did.

I argued that as regard the first two, he did not do this deliberately and most probably has already learned that lesson. Maybe not, I dont know the facts. But it should be decided on whether this goal has already been accomplished.

Mental satisfaction to those affected...again how real is this, if someone does something stupid do you really blame them? Should you really blame them? Wouldnt it make more sense if we had some sort of restorative justice whereby such victims benefitted from a fund paid into by a tax on offenders released back into society? Think of it as a student loan type scheme? But this was an acciden, not deliberate.

Discourage others: who actually sets out to crash a vehicle? Who actually thinks about possible prison sentences when out on the piss? Prevent this happening again will not be served by anything happening even one day after this story leaves the media. The only lesson will come from how having a good time turned into a disaster and getting others to remember that through publicity now.

[steve]

wb61
The trial judge could have imposed a life sentence with a minimum term of 12 years, that way the defendant would have served 12 years at least.
Because he was given a determinate sentence of 12 years, this means they will ,with a few exceptions be automatically released after two thirds of their sentence, 8 years and are eligible to apply for release on licence after 6 years.
The reality is if the individual hadn't killed anyone but had been sentenced for four years for dangerous driving their prison sentence could potentially be just 24 months less than they would now serve.

I am not entirely certain of the AG right to request a move from a determinate sentence to an indeterminate which could be an issue but otherwise I don't see any massive legal hurdles.

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 19:12:33 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Danny

Had a chat with my partner about attendance in school. She says it has been more of an issue since the pandemic, but she’s nonetheless close to target, but then she works in the primary sector.

R4 said primary school absences about half secondary, I think 3% persistent absences primary and 6% secondary.  

What is the target though? I remember learning that school attainment target was to reach the current national average. So basically above average achieving schools were being told they could relax their efforts and allow attainment to fall. While I honestly do not believe those below average were there deliberateley, so its rather unlikely they could do better. The outcome of such a defined target was always that overall standards would fall, and therefore future targets would fall. And they have.

Where parents are more likely to ferry offspring to school; the main causes of absence for her are parents going on holiday in term-time and accepting the fine, or illness (since younger children tend to get ill more and there’s a 48 hour isolation policy or summat in the LA).

Does she have an estimate of how many kids are called in sick by parents when actually they are going on holiday (ie so as not to pay a fine!)? Eg, would be obvious if sickness doubles on the friday before half term, even though no one checks to see which are real.

Regarding pupils hiding at school, do you mean because being picked on or just wanting to avoid lessons or something else?

This was a partly second hand report, though I have no reason to doubt it, but I didnt get to question exactly. My understanding is that there are various common areas such as library where kids are from time to time supposed to be working, but they may be joined by others simply not going to the lessons they should. And staff are quietly happy to let them because then the classes are rid of those not wanting to be there. To mix my examples slighty thinking of a report from a different school, some subjects are very much more or less popular and kids will willingly go to one but hate another. Education nowadays seems a lot more consensual than in my day. Or simply being boycotted. Similarly kids will pull a sickie if they dont like that days lessons, heck I used to do that occasionally.  I dont know to what extent there is scope in that particular school for simply hiding, but the number suggested was 20% of kids milling about not doing what they should be doing.  The management regard their objective as  retaining a degree of order,  and are not concerned with overall educational attainment.

[wb61]

Jul 20, 2023 8:38:41 GMT steve said:

wb61
The trial judge could have imposed a life sentence with a minimum term of 12 years, that way the defendant would have served 12 years at least.
Because he was given a determinate sentence of 12 years, this means they will ,with a few exceptions be automatically released after two thirds of their sentence, 8 years and are eligible to apply for release on licence after 6 years.
The reality is if the individual hadn't killed anyone but had been sentenced for four years for dangerous driving their prison sentence could potentially be just 24 months less than they would now serve.

I am not entirely certain of the AG right to request a move from a determinate sentence to an indeterminate which could be an issue but otherwise I don't see any massive legal hurdles.

The problem with that approach Steve is that if the Judge, at least openly, did that s/he would be taking account of a matter which Judges are not entitled to consider when sentencing, that is the early release provisions, that would be an immediately appealable point. 

EDIT: early release is considered an administrative and non-judicial matter because the sentence continues on licence on release, release is dependent on behaviour and the Judge is required to sentence as if the whole sentence will be served!

[steve]

Fromage banking nonsense.
Reality check Faridge ceased to be entitled to a Coutts bank account when he paid off his mortgage which dropped him below the minimum balance for eligibility for this specialist very rich bastards bank.
He'll just have to settle for being a rich bastard with a Nat West account instead.

Parliamentary and media air time has been devoted to this total bollocks.
Just as the media slavishly followed Foridges example when he turned up with his Poundland binoculars to look at Dover harbour.

Here's a real banking expert handing Filige his arse.

youtu.be/z3vk0ccDJR4

[neilj]

Jul 20, 2023 8:19:29 GMT steve said:

neilj

Those figure are correct , they are among the highest this century, with a growing population they also as a percentage represent an increase in individual cases even without a percentage increase.

So you agree with the ONS that suicide rates fell in 2020-21 compared to the preceding 2 years?

I also agree that suicide rates fell to a low level in around 2007. They then started increasing, possibly a connection to the GFC and austerity, reaching another high around 2018-19, before dropping over the first two years of Covid

Looking at the grapgh in the link below our current levels are a little below the average for the last 40 years

Not sure what point you are trying to make, but I did notice a correlation between the economic situation of the country and suicide rates
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7749/

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 19:41:58 GMT steve said:

pjw1961

The Nunnery Ward by-election in Worcester interests me.



That's an unusual habit😕

No doubt exceedingly unusual if the nunnery in question has long been abolished.

[steve]

wb61
I know that, however the appearance of leniency would have been avoided if the judge had used their discretion to impose an indeterminate sentence with a 12 year minimum term.

I think we might be boring others by now.
Shall we leave it at that.

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 20:15:29 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 19, 2023 19:58:50 GMT Danny said:

Isnt that missing out the major capital costs of buying them, and probably no real costs for disposal as the nuclear material remains in servcie when we upgrade the equipment.

You should also factor in that the entire UK civil nuclear program only happened as an indirect subsidy to the military use of nuclear materials. Nuclear have sometimes been handy, eg in the middle of a coal strike, but has it really been cheap energy over the decades? i doubt it.

nuclear could potentially be a lot cheaper. But they stuck with the version that requires expensive (and lucrative) reprocessing of fuel rods etc.

Yes, the ones handy for military use.

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 19:07:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

However, with respect to 'influence' on outcome then.. well... EP is a rubber stamping operation for EC-EU and quite literally can't instigate policy. 

"The European Parliament is the only democratically elected body in the EU. Yet, unlike most parliaments, it has no formal right of legislative initiative"
www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/655134/IPOL_STU(2020)655134_EN.pdf

Maybe you should look more closely at how the Uk is governed. Here legislation is initiated and written by government ministers. These are people chosen by parliament to do that job, but whatever they decide then gets rubber stamped by parliament. No minister achieved that position because in an election voters chose them to be eg chancellor of the excehequer. Nor is there any requirement for ministers to be MPs or even lords (but they usually give those jobs to each other).

In the EU commisioners and members of the council of ministers are also chosen by parliament. In their case by diverse independent elected governments in different member countries, but no one gets to take part in the government of the EU except at the choice of an elected paliament. The EU governing body is a lot more representative of its people than the Uk government.

[neilj]

@danny
"Maybe its more the case that people with a lot of wealth now enjoy laws and financial systems which enable them to shelter that wealth from taxes much more easily"

Agree, we have the prime example of Sunak. Despite having an income of nearly £5m he only paid tax at a rate of 22% (a lower rate than people on not much more than average wages)
This was atleast partly due to reductions in CGT that he voted for
The very rich are able to avail themselves of lots of tax breaks to avoid tax

[wb61]

Jul 20, 2023 8:53:32 GMT steve said:

wb61
I know that, however the appearance of leniency would have been avoided if the judge had used their discretion to impose an indeterminate sentence with a 12 year minimum term.

I think we might be boring others by now.
Shall we leave it at that.

Yes indeed. I should apologise to the board, my whole purpose, originally, was to show how constrained Judges are in the sentences that they can pass (both upwards and downwards).

[steve]

neilj

So you agree with the ONS that suicide rates fell in 2020-21 compared to the preceding 2 years?

It's not a question of agreeing it's a fact, my point really was that there's no evidence to show that covid lockdown decreased the suicide rate which I think is what Alec was suggesting.

Over the past 15 years, the UK rate of suicide among 15-24 year olds has gradually fallen, but rose again in 2018 – although this be partly due to a change in coronial standards rather than a true rise. Between 1992 and 2017, the UK rate of suicide per 100,000 young people aged 15-24, decreased from 10.7 to 7.3, but rose to 9.1 in 2018 – a total of 714 registered deaths.
In 2021 it was 8.9

[neilj]

Worth reading the whole thread, lots of interesting insights to the by-elections today

[neilj]

I think this is spot on

@adambienkov
'The amount of coverage and political capital being spent on Nigel Farage being asked to move his bank account from Coutts to Natwest, tells you everything you need to know about the insane priorities of British politics and media'

[Mr Poppy]

Betfair implied probabilities for the by-elections:

U&SR: LAB 85%, CON 15%
S&A: LAB 80%, CON 20%
S&F: LDEM 97%, CON 3%

www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-by-elections-betting-28548799

Seem reasonable. Some folks like to bet on long shots hence CON probably a bit too high in U&SR and S&A but there are also some understandable doubts about LAB's GOTV. For S&F then LDEM historically do very well in mid-term by-elections and local-national LAB don't seem to be putting in any effort in that seat (ie very little risk of a split ABCON vote - other than perhaps some 'protest' vote going to Green/RUK/UKIP/etc)

ABCON swing will be over analysed of course and a repost of the history on swings (and folks can check for themselves how many of those 'stuck' in the subsequent GE - especially when a 'protest' party won the by-election, Carswell for UKIP in Clacton being a notable exception)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records

PS One other thing to mention about Carswell. He was in a safe CON seat and defected to UKIP. There has historically been quite a lot of 'flow' between CON and UKIP/BXP/RUK which dispels the 'myth' of Arch-CON loyalty. TBC what would happen if Corbyn and Abbott formerly defected from LAB and ran for a genuine LoC party. Historically LAB splits have fairly quickly died a political death under FPTP but there is a first time for everything and PR would certainly help a break-away 'Left' faction of LAB (possibly why Starmer is apparently now 'long opposed' to PR)?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Labour_Party_breakaway_parties_(UK)#

[leftieliberal]

Jul 19, 2023 21:37:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 19, 2023 21:18:07 GMT @isa said:

And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching.

By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome.

Frome Town used to play in the same league as Redditch United and I was one of the few patrons of the Valley Stadium who pronounced their name correctly on the occasion they visited the Mighty Reds home ground. Most of the locals were totally unfamiliar with the Somerset town. "Whom we a playin today, Jim?" "Some bloody place in Wurzel land, I think Baz.", replied Jim. "They'm a come in effin tractors "

😉😆

Ipswich supporters are known as the Tractor Boys. I thought it was historical until I discovered it was coined when they were in the Premier League (2000-02).

[John Chanin]

Jul 19, 2023 22:57:13 GMT mercian said:

Jul 19, 2023 7:46:53 GMT John Chanin said:

Which appear to consist solely of aging northern bigots.

Way to win people over! 🤣

What makes you think I have any interest in winning over aging northern bigots?

[Danny]

Jul 20, 2023 8:13:48 GMT crossbat11 said:

Yes, hereditary MPs now. Who'd have thought it? Tony Benn started it.

Rees-Mogg may be scouring six safe Tory seats as we speak. He may be hard pressed to find that many soon.

Don forget the principle of primogeniture. mybe not so rigours now, but the idea was to keep wealth united in one set of hands, so one favoured successor. And widening it a bit, Thatcher may have given up on her own son at least in politics, and chose Blair.

[Danny]

Jul 20, 2023 8:18:19 GMT alec said:

2020 and 2021 saw declines in suicides. They seem to have increased in 22, when we had far more covid, and far fewer mitigations.

i wonder if thats because for many its nicer to stay at home than go to work?

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 20, 2023 9:33:41 GMT John Chanin said:

Jul 19, 2023 22:57:13 GMT mercian said:

Way to win people over! 🤣

What makes you think I have any interest in winning over aging northern bigots?

You seem to have missed the 🤣

However, since you don't seem to be joking then what evidence do you have for LAB focus groups only focussing on the people you seem to think they are focussing on.

Stevenage* might seem like 'North' to some London folks perhaps but it's incredibly patronising and misogynistic to call Stevenage Women 'ageing northern bigots'

New report urges Starmer to court the vote of “Stevenage woman”
labourlist.org/2023/04/new-report-urges-starmer-to-court-the-vote-of-stevenage-woman/

Before that target group was broader (and misogynistic)

Labour targets new swing voter ‘middle-aged mortgage man’
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/22/labour-targets-new-swing-voter-middle-aged-mortgage-man

NB Ageism is also discrimination but there is historic evidence that older voters are more likely to GOTV and I would concede that both parties seem overly focussed on the older demographics - leaving a lot of potential for a party to swoop in and give young people a reason to vote (as per the 'youth quake' in GE'17). Greens perhaps?

* Groan expand that to: "‘Seats in which Labour needs to compete to win, mainly but not all in southern and Midlands England.."
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/20/starmers-caution-infuriates-some-in-labour-but-theres-method-in-his-mildness

[steve]

Rail, Maritime and Transport union general secretary Mick Lynch has accused Labour leader Keir Starmer of a “dilution of traditional Labour positions”

Given that brexitanian fanatic Lynch encouraged people to vote against traditional Labour positions and their own best interests in 2016 and isn't a member or supporter of the Labour party it does beg the question what's it got to do with him.

[John Chanin]

If you want me to be serious, rather than just producing a sound bite, focus groups do tend to tell you what you want to hear, because they are directed. By definition they are asking what we call 'leading questions' and have to be moderated to keep them on the point.  I have run them myself, and as a result became very wary of them.  You can get two apparently similar groups which head off in completely different directions.

PS: I don't understand the little yellow things, so I ignore them.

[domjg]

If the Russians attack civilian shipping or even if a civilian ship is destroyed by a mine we should attack the Black Sea fleet. They're pushing now out of desperation to see how far they can go.
They need to know that we are not scared of destroying their assets directly if need be.
If not now it will become necessary later.

[Danny]

Jul 20, 2023 8:50:44 GMT steve said:

Fromage banking nonsense.
Reality check Faridge ceased to be entitled to a Coutts bank account when he paid off his mortgage which dropped him below the minimum balance for eligibility for this specialist very rich bastards bank.
He'll just have to settle for being a rich bastard with a Nat West account instead.

However i expect they have many cutomers who drop below the nominal reuirements for an account. That they get their accounts closed is much more likely to be because of other factors like bad publicity or administrative risk.

I agree he doesnt have a right to a coutts account, but there should be a legal right to some fully functional bank account. It is necessary nowadays. And you pretty much have to impose that right on big banks in general unless you want to create a state owned bank for all the poor people which therefore doesnt make much if any money. The major banks are benefitting from the fact we have to use their services, so they should be required to pick up the cost of the unprofitable people who still need one.

We should have created a fully fledged state bank in 2010.

[leftieliberal]

Jul 20, 2023 8:13:48 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 20, 2023 8:06:00 GMT Danny said:

What do you mean irony? Its simply an example of the hereditary principle of passing power from father to son which still applies in the UK. See the rest of the cabinet. Positions bought and paid for. Little different to Samuel Pepys buying his position administering the navy in the 1600s.

Yes, hereditary MPs now. Who'd have thought it? Tony Benn started it.

Rees-Mogg may be scouring six safe Tory seats as we speak. He may be hard pressed to find that many soon.

Actually George Spencer-Churchill, 5th Duke of Marlborough (whose father the 4th Duke only sat in the Lords), his son George Spencer-Churchill, 6th Duke of Marlborough, his son John Spencer-Churchill, 7th Duke of Marlborough, His son, Lord Randolph Churchill. His son Sir Winston Churchill, his son Randolph Churchill (MP for Preston 1940-45), his son Winston Churchill (MP for Stretford 1970-1983, MP for Davyhulme 1983-1997).

The Wedgwood-Benns as I still think of them are mere newbies at this game of hereditary MPs.