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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 19, 2023 21:37:15 GMT
neilj Come on then, smarty-pants, where's the latest YouGov poll showing Sunak's all time low approval ratings??? đ¤đđ P.S. Maybe I missed the Deltapoll then. There's a whole lot of scrolling going on at the moment! Impending by-elections tomorrow the only thing keeping me hanging on in there in terms of UKPR, really. Real votes and "real people" turning out tomorrow.And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching. By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome. Frome Town used to play in the same league as Redditch United and I was one of the few patrons of the Valley Stadium who pronounced their name correctly on the occasion they visited the Mighty Reds home ground. Most of the locals were totally unfamiliar with the Somerset town. "Whom we a playin today, Jim?" "Some bloody place in Wurzel land, I think Baz.", replied Jim. "They'm a come in effin tractors " đđ |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 19, 2023 21:38:19 GMT
Secret of Covid âsuper dodgersâ explained by gene that treats virus like common coldScientists discover people with certain immune systems eight times less likely to report symptoms even if they were infected by coronavirus ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/92853/thread Not really a surprise. Some people are naturally able to fight off HIV, and some of those were traced to survivors of historic plagues. Good to know how it works though. That itâs genetic, and which gene⌠might lead to some treatments |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 19, 2023 21:38:21 GMT
neilj Come on then, smarty-pants, where's the latest YouGov poll showing Sunak's all time low approval ratings??? đ¤đđ P.S. Maybe I missed the Deltapoll then. There's a whole lot of scrolling going on at the moment! Impending by-elections tomorrow the only thing keeping me hanging on in there in terms of UKPR, really. Real votes and "real people" turning out tomorrow.And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching. By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome. I knew it was Frome as in broom, partly because I can recite the legend of how Harold Gimblett's initial first-class innings came about and what happened - and even though the victims were Essex. Edit - in the extremely unlikely event that anyone insists on me explaining that, I will put it on the sport thread. Probably a digression too far. |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 19, 2023 21:39:37 GMT
But if their endorsement was delayed until close of nominations - a month before Polling Day - Starmer would be trapped. It would be too late to deselect those candidates or to choose new replacements. What could Starmer do about it under such circomstances? It would also create an almighty row - and potential split right at the outset of the official election campaign. Effectively the Campaign group could have him over a barrel. In those circumstances Starmer/Labour would have no choice but to expel them. They would, probably quite rightly, see much bigger damage being done to Labour through out the country in electoral terms if they didn't. Rightly or wrongly Corbyn is seen as toxic by many of the people Labour want to vote for them On the other hand Starmer showing himself a 'tough' leader in dealing with it would probably play quite well. If he doesn't he would be seen as weak as Sunak, who he definitely wouldn't want to be compared with Personally can't see the Campaign group going for it precisely because of that That is still an offensive, inappropriate and unsubstantiated description. |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 19, 2023 21:43:28 GMT
But if their endorsement was delayed until close of nominations - a month before Polling Day - Starmer would be trapped. It would be too late to deselect those candidates or to choose new replacements. What could Starmer do about it under such circomstances? It would also create an almighty row - and potential split right at the outset of the official election campaign. Effectively the Campaign group could have him over a barrel. That would be seen as typical socialist campaign group factionalism, they can't see the wood because of the trees. Really isn't it about time we rose above this internal tribal stuff. âFactionalismâ for one person is âfighting your cornerâ for another. Factionalism gets ugly when it is based upon a divisive and damaging falsehood. |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 19, 2023 21:46:27 GMT
But if their endorsement was delayed until close of nominations - a month before Polling Day - Starmer would be trapped. It would be too late to deselect those candidates or to choose new replacements. What could Starmer do about it under such circomstances? It would also create an almighty row - and potential split right at the outset of the official election campaign. Effectively the Campaign group could have him over a barrel. No. They would be expelled, no question. They might get to sit one term in parliament as independents, but history suggests they would be gone thereafter. What you are calling for is suicide by the left. I don't want to see that. Labour needs a left wing presence in parliament to remind it what it is for. History actually teaches us nothing. Otherwise we would never try any thing new. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 21:51:04 GMT
No. They would be expelled, no question. They might get to sit one term in parliament as independents, but history suggests they would be gone thereafter. What you are calling for is suicide by the left. I don't want to see that. Labour needs a left wing presence in parliament to remind it what it is for. History actually teaches us nothing. Otherwise we would never try any thing new. History seems to be teaching us we actually SHOULD try something new. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 19, 2023 21:54:55 GMT
That would be seen as typical socialist campaign group factionalism, they can't see the wood because of the trees. Really isn't it about time we rose above this internal tribal stuff. âFactionalismâ for one person is âfighting your cornerâ for another. Factionalism gets ugly when it is based upon a divisive and damaging falsehood. Not necessarily. The factionalism between Blairites and Brownites in the New Labour days was extremely toxic and damaging even through it didn't seem to be based on much more than misunderstandings and inflated egos. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 21:55:05 GMT
And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching. By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome. Frome Town used to play in the same league as Redditch United and I was one of the few patrons of the Valley Stadium who pronounced their name correctly on the occasion they visited the Mighty Reds home ground. Most of the locals were totally unfamiliar with the Somerset town. "Whom we a playin today, Jim?" "Some bloody place in Wurzel land, I think Baz.", replied Jim. "They'm a come in effin tractors " đđ  I can imagine! Outside of the wider local area and the announcer at Paddington station, the pronunciation of 'Frome' is invariably a bit of a minefield for the uninitiated. Actually, Frome (population c28k) is a relatively large "place in Wurzel land" these days, but is struggling to make a reputation with the wider populace, despite being 'the sixth coolest town' in Britain in 2014. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frome |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 19, 2023 21:56:23 GMT
crossbat11 The Labour party are past masters at forming an inward looking circular firing squad. I still have affection for my old party , shame it has less for itself. Well, steve, that is something coming from someone who backs the 2017 manifesto, but now spends half his life sniping at its author!!! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 19, 2023 21:59:10 GMT
No. They would be expelled, no question. They might get to sit one term in parliament as independents, but history suggests they would be gone thereafter. What you are calling for is suicide by the left. I don't want to see that. Labour needs a left wing presence in parliament to remind it what it is for. History actually teaches us nothing. Otherwise we would never try any thing new. As I have a history degree I am obliged to disagree with you! Actually, scarcely anything is new and most things have been tried before. It is lack of knowledge of the past that dooms us to keep making the same mistakes. In this particular case all I was referencing is that independent MPs who have split from the main parties don't tend to last long - that's just a fact rather than opinion. I could list all the examples but that would be boring. (See Change UK for a recent example). |
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Post by eor on Jul 19, 2023 22:05:57 GMT
And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching. By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome. Frome Town used to play in the same league as Redditch United and I was one of the few patrons of the Valley Stadium who pronounced their name correctly on the occasion they visited the Mighty Reds home ground. Most of the locals were totally unfamiliar with the Somerset town. "Whom we a playin today, Jim?" "Some bloody place in Wurzel land, I think Baz.", replied Jim. "They'm a come in effin tractors " đđ Friend of mine at university was a Cheltenham Town fan (think they were still non-league then but made the promised land not long after?). Anyway, you just made me think of him and one of his favourite chants; "We can't read an' we can't write an' that don't really ma'er. Cos we all come from Cheltnamshire an' we can drive a tra'or!" |
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Post by eor on Jul 19, 2023 22:06:43 GMT
pjw1961 The Nunnery Ward by-election in Worcester interests me. That's an unusual habitđ Not at all - we're following it closely here in Conventry too! |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 22:06:46 GMT
And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching. By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome. I knew it was Frome as in broom, partly because I can recite the legend of how Harold Gimblett's initial first-class innings came about and what happened - and even though the victims were Essex. Edit - in the extremely unlikely event that anyone insists on me explaining that, I will put it on the sport thread. Probably a digression too far. Blimey, I never thought I would see the great HG mentioned on these revered pages. I'm not aware of your anecdote, so feel free to make an entry on the sport thread. All I would say is that in his later years, he lived in the village I grew up in, although I don't remember seeing him. |
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Post by eor on Jul 19, 2023 22:13:44 GMT
Do you think Plaid are getting boxed in a bit by the Cooperation Agreement with Labour? I know it's quite specific in scope and not a coalition etc but is it making it hard to be an alternative to Labour if they're being seen as also kinda supporting Labour in the Senedd? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 19, 2023 22:14:23 GMT
I knew it was Frome as in broom, partly because I can recite the legend of how Harold Gimblett's initial first-class innings came about and what happened - and even though the victims were Essex. Edit - in the extremely unlikely event that anyone insists on me explaining that, I will put it on the sport thread. Probably a digression too far. Blimey, I never thought I would see the great HG mentioned on these revered pages. I'm not aware of your anecdote, so feel free to make an entry on the sport thread. All I would say is that in his later years, he lived in the village I grew up in, although I don't remember seeing him. I will - but it will have to be tomorrow evening. It is rather a good 'Boys Own' type story - but true. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 22:16:55 GMT
Frome Town used to play in the same league as Redditch United and I was one of the few patrons of the Valley Stadium who pronounced their name correctly on the occasion they visited the Mighty Reds home ground. Most of the locals were totally unfamiliar with the Somerset town. "Whom we a playin today, Jim?" "Some bloody place in Wurzel land, I think Baz.", replied Jim. "They'm a come in effin tractors " đđ Friend of mine at university was a Cheltenham Town fan (think they were still non-league then but made the promised land not long after?). Anyway, you just made me think of him and one of his favourite chants; "We can't read an' we can't write an' that don't really ma'er. Cos we all come from Cheltnamshire an' we can drive a tra'or!" The same chant featured regularly on the terraces at Huish Park, although obviously with 'Somerset' rather than 'Cheltnamshire'. |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 19, 2023 22:32:52 GMT
Yes of course. it depends how you do it and itâs been explained many times. Printing heaps of money following the banking crisis did not result in a great deal of general inflation, despite dire warnings from household economists. It only stoked inflation where supply was constrained, e.g. housing. (They could have done more to avoid that - increase supply or direct the money elsewhere, but they wanted to let house price inflation happen electorally). The cause of recent inflation is not too much money sloshing about, it is external shocks raising the price of energy and food. Curtailing the money supply will not fix this. Furthermore, the money supply is already falling and we risk recession. If you are worried about inflation, the key is to invest in things that will reduce inflation. Like cheaper energy. Cheaper housing etc. Exactly - the supply of cheap food and fuel is constrained, hence the current inflation; your idea will simply make that worse. Remember how Truss' decision to make huge policy shifts funded by borrowing went? She was out of office in 40 days. Truss wanted big tax cuts in the bizarre belief that the wealthy would use the money to support growth, instead of spending it on yachts and spare apartments in Kensington where no-one would actually live. The wily money markets realised this would actually bring no return on their investments. They understood the âLaffer curveâ for the huge joke that it is (the clue is in the name!). Even steveâs âbunch of crusty old no achievement neo trot dinosaursâ understood this, with crystal clarity. |
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Post by steve on Jul 19, 2023 22:40:34 GMT
RafwanI didn't actually say I entirely backed the 2017 Labour manifesto broadly it was positive compared to the Tory inadequacy . But given that I was a member of the liberal democrats by then and voted liberal democrat that's not entirely surprising. Just that with a less divisive and politically toxic leader given that May didn't really bother to turn up for the election campaign that without Corbyn at the helm Labour might well have won irrespective of the manifesto. Similarly Starmer a far less divisive figure for the electorate is likely to win despite having little fundamentally to offer other than not leading the worst regime in living memory. It's an anti Tory vote while Labour's loss in 2017 was primarily anti Corbyn.
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Post by graham on Jul 19, 2023 22:41:37 GMT
History actually teaches us nothing. Otherwise we would never try any thing new. As I have a history degree I am obliged to disagree with you! Actually, scarcely anything is new and most things have been tried before. It is lack of knowledge of the past that dooms us to keep making the same mistakes. In this particular case all I was referencing is that independent MPs who have split from the main parties don't tend to last long - that's just a fact rather than opinion. I could list all the examples but that would be boring. (See Change UK for a recent example). But not much history of such a group splitting from the Government party and proceeding to put up candidates in subsequent by elections against the official candidate. A Starmer govt might become unpopular pretty quickly with protest votes not difficult to pick up. |
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Post by graham on Jul 19, 2023 22:43:18 GMT
Rafwan I didn't actually say I entirely backed the 2017 Labour manifesto broadly it was positive compared to the Tory inadequacy . But given that I was a member of the liberal democrats by then and voted liberal democrat that's not entirely surprising. Just that with a less divisive and politically toxic leader given that May didn't really bother to turn up for the election campaign that without Corbyn at the helm Labour might well have won irrespective of the manifesto. Similarly Starmer a far less divisive figure for the electorate is likely to win despite having little fundamentally to offer other than not leading the worst regime in living memory. It's an anti Tory vote while Labour's loss in 2017 was primarily anti Corbyn. But why vote for Starmer's NeoTories when you can get the real thing? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 19, 2023 22:44:20 GMT
mercian We have to " give up" our own trading arrangements in the area to participate in the CPTPP that's how partnerships work. Given that the brexitanians spouted a lot of bollocks about sovereignty interesting that their governing regime has no problem with losing sovereignty to ensure a deal worth fifty times less than the one they walked away from because of " sovereignty ". youtu.be/XSy_lwQUR9Y Well of course any bilateral agreement we already have with a member of the CPTPP would be replaced. Are you saying that the CPTPP would stop us having a trading relationship with an EU country? Your video link certainly didn't say that, just some rant about us having no say in 'laws' that would be imposed by them. The only concrete example the chap gave was something about an agreement not to overexploit palm oil production. That would seem to be part of the agreement to join, and I can't see that it will have a major impact. I don't think that outside Torquay there are many palm trees here, and if it means we have to get some equivalent product from somewhere else, so what? Yet you also said that rejoining the EU would mean we would have to leave the CPTPP. Why should we? Would the CPTPP 'forbid' us from joining the EU? Obviously not, because it's a trade agreement, not a supra-national government. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 22:45:00 GMT
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Post by mercian on Jul 19, 2023 22:57:13 GMT
Bewildered that some seem to have swallowed the fiscal responsibility stuff on the 2 child benefits cap. Reversing it would reportedly cost £1.3bn - that's an absolute drop in the ocean. If Labour can't commit to something like that they'll not commit to anything meaningful at all. Just feels like the sort of policy that played well with their beloved focus groups.Which appear to consist solely of aging northern bigots. Way to win people over! 𤣠|
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Post by mercian on Jul 19, 2023 23:07:05 GMT
crossbat11 The Labour party are past masters at forming an inward looking circular firing squad. I still have affection for my old party , shame it has less for itself. Indeed so. The only saving grace is that the guns are usually loaded with blanks! They make a loud bang when fired but carry no capacity to wound or kill. Everybody still standing after guns discharged. A sort of pointless charade really. A source of comedy, little else. My considered view on all this is that the sound and fury is exceeding the political import. Starmer has set his course and his train has left the station. Carriages full and all those absent passengers either alighted some stations ago or, more likely, never boarded. I think next stop is the general election. The driver and crew seem determined to stay the course and the passengers determined to see the journey through too. Opinion polls suggest most of the passengers jumped on the train a long time ago. Possible derailments aplenty ahead but the train seems sturdy enough to survive them. I'm on board because it's the only train going vaguely in the right direction for me. I can't see another due, nor any alternative routes. Talking to my fellow passengers, most are surprisingly happy with the driver, the crew and the direction the train is travelling. A fair few people on bridges chucking bricks down as we pass through, but they seem to bounce off. My message to the driver is Keep Calm and Carry on. The train is getting there, I think Ah, but what about when the railway unions call a strike? |
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Post by eor on Jul 19, 2023 23:12:44 GMT
Meanwhile, across the pond... Pollingwise no change - the polls still show Trump and Biden with huge leads for party nomination, and a too-close-to-call general election between them, and more pertinently all the major reasons to have extreme scepticism about the relevance/usefulness of these polls remain. Namely that polling at this stage has often not been a reliable guide; in the era of modern polling we've never had an election between the sitting President and their predecessor; Trump may still go to jail; if either Trump or Biden were to drop out, it wouldn't be a case of who would win the nomination from the remaining known candidates, more that the field would change radically overnight. The clock is ticking for both parties tho - it's looking increasingly clear that Biden won't face any serious challenge for the Democratic nomination, and Republican politicians are all edging closer to the point where they'll have to commit to Trump or refuse to do so. So this is the point where the media chat moves on to potential Third Party candidates - this happens most cycles and it's usually nonsense. Ross Perot in 1992 is the only one in decades to actually morph into a genuine third candidate, and even then he ended up comfortably third. That said... if you started with "how could a Third Party candidate genuinely compete" and worked back, you'd pick a lot of the key circumstances we have now. An unpopular President (Biden's ratings over the last year are actually worse than Trump's at the same stage**, which is saying something), economic uncertainty, a likely candidate from the other party with dreadful crossover appeal, reasons for the party support of the incumbent President to be unusually soft (his age/health)... put another way, would someone wanting to make a genuine run at a Third Party candidacy get a better environment than a general election with Biden and Trump in 2024? Of the folk being suggested, I think two are worth keeping an eye on. Firstly, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has deliberately stoked speculation in this area recently, and whilst I habitually assume anything he does is related to squeezing every last bit of money and influence out of still voting Democratic in the Senate, he can also read the runes - as things stand the Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate in 2024 and whilst he himself would be likely to get re-elected despite how Republican his state of West Virginia normally is, at 73 his role as powerbroker would be over for at least a couple of years. So it's possible he does see a scenario where he could take enough blue-collar Dem votes from Biden, enough anti-Trump Republican votes from Trump and clean up on Independents in the middle.... maybe. Secondly, Cornel West. He's trying to build support on the basis that Trump is a neo-fascist and Biden a neo-liberal - whether he'll be more than a temporary annoyance to the Dems remains to be seen, but well worth watching just because if he's leading off with Biden being "milquetoast" then he could at least provide some linguistic colour in the next few months! www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/07/07/cornel-west-third-party-candidate-democrats-sot-ebof-vpx.cnn(** www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.htmlwww.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html ) |
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Post by eor on Jul 19, 2023 23:26:50 GMT
No. They would be expelled, no question. They might get to sit one term in parliament as independents, but history suggests they would be gone thereafter. What you are calling for is suicide by the left. I don't want to see that. Labour needs a left wing presence in parliament to remind it what it is for. Depending on the numbers such a group might be able to keep Starmer out of Downing St.Post -election were Labour to be on circa 290 seats with Campaign group on a further 30, it is not unlikely that negotiations would follow . The Campaign MPs could simply say - If you want our votes, you have to restore the Whip to us all - including Corbyn.' Such a row at the outset of the election campaign could seriously destabilise Labour and add credence to renewed Tory claims of 'a Coalition of Chaos.' Starmer would have brought it all on himself.
Wouldn't this scenario be contradictory tho? If such a group were to refuse to back Starmer in a King's Speech, the outcome would just be another GE, at which your rebels would be unable to stand as Labour candidates and almost all of them would immediately lose any relevance? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 23:40:07 GMT
Blair questioned by Peston on ITV earlier about KS dropping commitments due to parlous economic situation.
Blair said "our commitments were really limited before we came into power" (verbatim). Didn't seem to do him much harm in '97 as I recall.
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 0:42:36 GMT
I can assure both of you, because I know lots of them, that committed Tory voters waste very little time agonising over this sort of thing. They just go out and vote Tory whether the candidate is from the left, right or middle of that party and regardless of what policies the party is advocating at the time. That's why they win so often. Pragmatism vs idealism. Guess which wins (nearly) every time? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 0:50:27 GMT
I can assure both of you, because I know lots of them, that committed Tory voters waste very little time agonising over this sort of thing. They just go out and vote Tory whether the candidate is from the left, right or middle of that party and regardless of what policies the party is advocating at the time. That's why they win so often. Well obviously âcommittedâ Tory voters are likely to vote Tory, just as committed Labour voters likely vote Labour. Thus the battle is over the less committed. Over the Tories who might vote New Labour, or UKIP, or LD say. Or who may just decide to stay at home. On a point of definition - do you define Tories as those who voted Tory at GE 2019? If so and one of them voted for say LD at the next GE would they then be classed as a LD? If the definition is more nuanced than that, what does define a Tory? Is it someone who votes Tory 50% of the time and various other parties 50%, or Tory 60%, 70% or what? Asking for a friend. |
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