16-JUL 2023 : LAB: 46% / CON: 26% / LDEM: 11% / REF: 6%

[graham]

So no Mid Beds by election now before party conferences.

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 14:22:46 GMT colin said:

( ie-that last tranche of QE probably WAS inflationary )

Except that while we had steady QE inflation remained very low. It is only since QE ended that interest rates have had to rise and with them inflation. Judged by what was really happening, high QE ensured low inflation.

[pjw1961]

Jul 19, 2023 17:05:55 GMT crossbat11 said:

There's a whole lot of scrolling going on at the moment! Impending by-elections tomorrow the only thing keeping me hanging on in there in terms of UKPR, really.

Real votes and "real people" turning out tomorrow.

I appreciate your desire to closely follow the Local Government by-elections tomorrow - as you say, real votes by real people - so these are the delights in store:

CEREDIGION UA; Llanfarian (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
DEAKIN, Karen Joan (Plaid Cymru)
EVANS, David Raymond (Liberal Democrat)
PARKER, Jack Kevin (Conservative)

2022: LD 524; PC 246


SWINDON UA; St Margaret & South Marston (Lab died)
Candidates:
POLSON, Joseph Paul George (Labour)
VALLENDER, Matthew Thomas (Conservative)

2023: Lab 1645; Con 1289; Grn 224; LD 148

Despite the result last time, this is not a safe Labour seat. It has annual elections and the Conservatives topped the poll in each one 2012-21. 2022 was Labour's first win and then only by 51.5 to 48.5. 


WORCESTER DC; Nunnery (Lab died)
Candidates:
BUTLER, Scott (Liberal Democrat)
CARNEY, David Paul (Independent)
DITTA, Allah (Conservative)
WILLMORE, Elaine Grace (Labour)

2023: Lab 1018; Con 688; Grn 182; LD 134; Ind 108

May also be some other stuff going on; not sure. 

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 19, 2023 16:55:58 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 19, 2023 15:27:17 GMT Mr Poppy said:

...
Re: tax, not sure of the best way to do it, but of course if you are stimulating the economy with some investment, and then counter any resulting inflation with tax, you aren’t necessarily leaving people worse off overall if they benefitted from the stimulus first. 

Depends on the tax but we tried lots of Keynesian stimulus to boost the economy with very high income tax rates to 'cool things down' in the 1960s and folks who pay a lot of tax are a lot more geographical mobile these days.

It will be future generations who will benefit from increase in green investment and reducing UK's dependency on imports (of food as well as energy). To avoid making people worse off now (noting that would not be popular) then we need to invest.

'Yield curve targeting' is an evolution of QE. BoE wouldn't need to step in unless gilt yields got to a level where they made a good investment for taxpayers (eg above 4.5% for 30yr gilts). Debt is debt but the BoE's balance sheet can shrink/grow depending on circumstances. Ideally we want it to shrink and even better create a sovereign wealth fund but as you say in another reply "the genie is out of the bottle". CBs can buy/sell their nations debt and govts set the mandate for CBs.

Reeves and Hunt are wrong to say there is no money left. If the 'market' won't buy gilts then BoE can. It is much better to buy them at 4.5% than 1.5% but only as 'buyer of last resort'. Until recently it did seem like CBs were being used as 'buyer of FIRST resort' and it was totally predictable that ultra low interest rates would boost inflation (first via assets and then more generally once economic demand got going again). Can't change the past but we should have stopped using QE when gilts were at stupid low yields levels. To now say BoE can't buy them at more sensible levels (but only if they have to) is treating the public for fools.

The Magic Money Tree (Modern Monetary Theory) is not a tree to be shaken for everything, all the time. However, "done right" then BoE (and others if they wish to lead/copy) can use their CB's balance sheet to make good investments.

I appreciate the risk is that people will disagree on what is a "good" investment but it should never be for 'day-day' spending (but we even did that for Covid). Fiscal discipline is still very important but I'm very disappointed with the groupthink from CON/LAB/BoE where they pretend they can't do stuff they have done in the past (eg deal with the LDI crisis but say "no money left" for the Climate Crisis) 

We've gone over most of this before but relevant once again now that Reeves is towing the same lie-n as CON and BoE. We'd still want a BoE mandate set by HMG and we'd still want 'fiscal rules' but they are not set in stone - both can, and IMO should, be tweaked in order to deal with the biggest crisis we're facing but one that is not yet burning fast enough for either option of UK govt to care. I'm getting very   about inflation being Public Enemy #1-100 but it will fall further and we can start getting ready for when gilt yields drop back a bit and some "investment" could be made at sensible levels with BoE only ever called upon as a genuine "last resort" and only then at a sensible rate of investment (eg 4.5% on 30yr gilts).

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 14:28:18 GMT Mr Poppy said:

However, if all countries agreed to Green QE then as per times of other QE then FX markets would view all currencies pretty much the same. Even unilaterally we could do a bit more than we're doing now and BoE's mandate could be tweaked to 'yield curve targeting' - only used in extremes.

Absolutely I agree that any country moving otherwise than with the herd risks a cataclysm. Nothing terrible happened in 2008 or 2020 when the Uk did the same as most other developed nations.

The problem of course is the Uk has the problem of Brexit to fund. You will remember how the then chancellor was saving up to pay some of the costs of Brexit. Blew that and way more besides on covid. Brexit is the unique factor dragging down the UK now.

Reeves is promising new nuclear (CON are finally doing that), more renewables (CON are doing that but could do more), insulating some homes (CON are doing that but could do more) but is also saying there is no money (ie she's unlikely to do anything 'radical' and just be 'continuity CON').

Insulating homes is always a good idea, whatever your policy. Shame then that con cancelled the programs instroduced by labour. Renewables energy is now looking rather cheap, so once again shame con scrapped schemes to encourage faster rollout, and introduced planning laws essentially banning land based wind turbines. Nor has it required national grid to expedite changes to the transmission network to enable new power sources.

I hope everyone on here realises that new nuclear is INSTEAD OF new wind or solar. Thats because nuclear power is cheap to generate but expensive to build. If you build it, you must run it 24 hours a day. It is wholly unsuitable technology to fill in when its dark or calm weather. Buying it now is committing UK taxpayers to paying for expensive power for the next 50 years. So its totally consistent with government policy to make ordinary people hand over their money to the rich. It locks in Uk energy poverty for many parliaments to come.

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 19, 2023 17:04:18 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:00:41 GMT colin said:

No idea what any of that means.
QT has ended for Western economies.

It means that because they didn’t take care of energy properly they are scaling back QE to hamfistedly try and contain inflation that way. 

This situation is unlikely to persist, whereupon they can use QE again. (And part of the ECB rationale for reducing QE now is to give more room to use it in future) 

Have they stated that? It would be interesting to see what parameters they are placing around when/why to use QE. I'm not against copying good ideas 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Secret of Covid ‘super dodgers’ explained by gene that treats virus like common cold
Scientists discover people with certain immune systems eight times less likely to report symptoms even if they were infected by coronavirus

ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/92853/thread

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 19, 2023 17:56:27 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:04:18 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

It means that because they didn’t take care of energy properly they are scaling back QE to hamfistedly try and contain inflation that way. 

This situation is unlikely to persist, whereupon they can use QE again. (And part of the ECB rationale for reducing QE now is to give more room to use it in future) 

Have they stated that? It would be interesting to see what parameters they are placing around when/why to use QE. I'm not against copying good ideas 

Yeah it was in some Euro parliament document somewhere. (Dunno if they gave parameters though)

[crossbat11]

Jul 19, 2023 17:30:56 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:05:55 GMT crossbat11 said:

neilj

Come on then, smarty-pants, where's the latest YouGov poll showing Sunak's all time low approval ratings???

🤔😉😋

P.S. Maybe I missed the Deltapoll then.

There's a whole lot of scrolling going on at the moment! Impending by-elections tomorrow the only thing keeping me hanging on in there in terms of UKPR, really.

Real votes and "real people" turning out tomorrow.

Scrolling?!? Hope your not missing some of the really, really (really?) good stuff.

I think we should await nickp's definitive verdict, don't you?

🤔😉😋

[shevii]

I think the yougov was published on time last week instead of 5 days late. The Evening Standard article about approval ratings was maybe one of their monthly trackers ones?

There is a More In Common poll showing on the wiki page which I think is new:

www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/voting-intention-july-2023/

44/29/12

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 16:08:24 GMT pjw1961 said:

I read this earlier today and hard not to feel sickened. Driving 123 mph one-handed so he could film himself on a mobile - surely this sentence will be appealed. 

I know nothing whatever about this case. However on the bare facts this sound more like stupidity than malice. The purpose of punishment is to prevent something happening again. Is this guy really going to do it again, ever?

And then the question of an example for others. Do we really need to make an example of giving him a big sentence? Isnt it obvious this was a really stupid thing to do, and simply publicising that this happened and lead to a death will do that. Will do far nmore than locking him up for the rest of his life.

So the question is really nothing to do with punishing the driver, unles anyone thinks he needs a further lesson so he wont do it again. I dont know the facts, but really, do people thing he does?

Keeping him in jail for 50 years would cost what, a million pounds? Just looked, apparently its 50,000 a year, so that would be 2.5 million. I can think of many many better uses. Thats probably worse value for money in saving lives than covid lockdown.

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 16:20:00 GMT colin said:

Fed /BoE/ECB all ceased new QE purchases and in various stages of reducing bond holdings.

QE has ended. Finance Ministers will no longer have a Central Bank standing by to purchase their new borrowing.

Funny how that has coincided with a new era of rising inflation. The exact opposite of what has classicaly been predicted. QE did cause inflation, but it was inflation of asset values. If anything, cheap money available to companies ought to make it easier for them to invest and thus reduce the cost of goods. Whereas expensive lending pushes up their costs.

For 20 years the bank of Japan has engaged in QE. The world's economists said how terrible this was, yet Japan's economy and finances carried on serenely untroubled. They have formally announced the policy is to end. Should we now expect rampant inflation in Japan too?

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 17:56:40 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Secret of Covid ‘super dodgers’ explained by gene that treats virus like common cold
Scientists discover people with certain immune systems eight times less likely to report symptoms even if they were infected by coronavirus

ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/92853/thread

Not really a surprise. Some people are naturally able to fight off HIV, and some of those were traced to survivors of historic plagues.

I wonder if Alec thinks Hastings happens to have a lot of locals with those genes, and that is how it managed to not catch covid spring 2020 (rather than simply because we had it a few months early). No...that doesnt work because then they would have been immune to the autumn strain too.

[catmanjeff]

Interesting choice of Green Party Candidate to replace Caroline Lucas:

She's a decent media performer for sure, and personally I find her quite personable.

I think the odds of the GP retaining the seat should have shortened based on this selection.

[jib]

Jul 19, 2023 17:34:29 GMT graham said:

So no Mid Beds by election now before party conferences.

That's very considerate of the Dorries tribe.

[jib]

Jul 19, 2023 18:43:21 GMT catmanjeff said:

Interesting choice of Green Party Candidate to replace Caroline Lucas:

She's a decent media performer for sure, and personally I find her quite personable.

I think the odds of the GP retaining the seat should have shortened based on this selection.

Electoral calculus reckon a 99% chance of a Green win!

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brighton%20Pavilion

[crossbat11]

Jul 19, 2023 17:54:16 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:05:55 GMT crossbat11 said:

There's a whole lot of scrolling going on at the moment! Impending by-elections tomorrow the only thing keeping me hanging on in there in terms of UKPR, really.

Real votes and "real people" turning out tomorrow.

I appreciate your desire to closely follow the Local Government by-elections tomorrow - as you say, real votes by real people - so these are the delights in store:

CEREDIGION UA; Llanfarian (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
DEAKIN, Karen Joan (Plaid Cymru)
EVANS, David Raymond (Liberal Democrat)
PARKER, Jack Kevin (Conservative)

2022: LD 524; PC 246


SWINDON UA; St Margaret & South Marston (Lab died)
Candidates:
POLSON, Joseph Paul George (Labour)
VALLENDER, Matthew Thomas (Conservative)

2023: Lab 1645; Con 1289; Grn 224; LD 148

Despite the result last time, this is not a safe Labour seat. It has annual elections and the Conservatives topped the poll in each one 2012-21. 2022 was Labour's first win and then only by 51.5 to 48.5. 


WORCESTER DC; Nunnery (Lab died)
Candidates:
BUTLER, Scott (Liberal Democrat)
CARNEY, David Paul (Independent)
DITTA, Allah (Conservative)
WILLMORE, Elaine Grace (Labour)

2023: Lab 1018; Con 688; Grn 182; LD 134; Ind 108

May also be some other stuff going on; not sure. 

pjw1961

The Nunnery Ward by-election in Worcester interests me. I have a close family link to that area. The old Hereford and Worcester County County buildings (County Hall) were located in Nunnery at the time my late mother was Chairman of the council in the early 80s. When she passed away in 1998, my Dad sprinkled some of her ashes amongst the bluebells in Nunnery Wood that lies close by the County Hall. It is now the HQ of Worcestershire County Council, the old hybrid two county council long gone now. It was a Peter Walker creation in his big and largely botched Local Government reforms in the early 1970s. Ironically, Walker's son is a Worcester MP now.

My brother and I still visit the wood on family significant anniversaries.

I will pay close attention to that Nunnery result tomorrow.

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 19, 2023 17:59:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:56:27 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Have they stated that? It would be interesting to see what parameters they are placing around when/why to use QE. I'm not against copying good ideas 

Yeah it was in some Euro parliament document somewhere. (Dunno if they gave parameters though)

EP is a rubber stamping operation for EC-EU and without being pedantic then EZ is not EU.

EP have some good 'documents' as we saw back when Brexit was an issue (eg www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/IPOL_STU(2017)596828 )

However, with respect to 'influence' on outcome then.. well... EP is a rubber stamping operation for EC-EU and quite literally can't instigate policy. 

"The European Parliament is the only democratically elected body in the EU. Yet, unlike most parliaments, it has no formal right of legislative initiative"
www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/655134/IPOL_STU(2020)655134_EN.pdf

Thankfully that is no longer our polity but if you do find some Euro parliament document somewhere then it would still be interesting to see. They chuck a load of stuff that EC-EU ignore - perhaps in an effort to justify their own existence in their own minds? 

[pjw1961]

Jul 19, 2023 18:15:43 GMT Danny said:

Jul 19, 2023 16:08:24 GMT pjw1961 said:

I read this earlier today and hard not to feel sickened. Driving 123 mph one-handed so he could film himself on a mobile - surely this sentence will be appealed. 

I know nothing whatever about this case. However on the bare facts this sound more like stupidity than malice. The purpose of punishment is to prevent something happening again. Is this guy really going to do it again, ever?

And then the question of an example for others. Do we really need to make an example of giving him a big sentence? Isnt it obvious this was a really stupid thing to do, and simply publicising that this happened and lead to a death will do that. Will do far nmore than locking him up for the rest of his life.

So the question is really nothing to do with punishing the driver, unles anyone thinks he needs a further lesson so he wont do it again. I dont know the facts, but really, do people thing he does?

Keeping him in jail for 50 years would cost what, a million pounds? Just looked, apparently its 50,000 a year, so that would be 2.5 million. I can think of many many better uses. Thats probably worse value for money in saving lives than covid lockdown.

What do you think the cost of the two children he has left permanently and seriously brain damaged might be? What might the dead woman and her unborn child have gone on to contribute to the world? My answer to your question "Do we really need to make an example of giving him a big sentence?" is an unequivocal yes. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Danny

Had a chat with my partner about attendance in school. She says it has been more of an issue since the pandemic, but she’s nonetheless close to target, but then she works in the primary sector. Where parents are more likely to ferry offspring to school; the main causes of absence for her are parents going on holiday in term-time and accepting the fine, or illness (since younger children tend to get ill more and there’s a 48 hour isolation policy or summat in the LA).

It occurs to me that her school is by a hospital and quite a lot of parents work there so are unlikely to WFH. Truanting etc. is more likely in the secondary sector one might think. Regarding pupils hiding at school, do you mean because being picked on or just wanting to avoid lessons or something else?

[pjw1961]

Jul 19, 2023 18:57:19 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:54:16 GMT pjw1961 said:

pjw1961

The Nunnery Ward by-election in Worcester interests me. I have a close family link to that area. The old Hereford and Worcester County County buildings (County Hall) were located in Nunnery at the time my late mother was Chairman of the council in the early 80s. When she passed away in 1998, my Dad sprinkled some of her ashes amongst the bluebells in Nunnery Wood that lies close by the County Hall. It is now the HQ of Worcestershire County Council, the old hybrid two county council long gone now. It was a Peter Walker creation in his big and largely botched Local Government reforms in the early 1970s. Ironically, Walker's son is a Worcester MP now.

My brother and I still visit the wood on family significant anniversaries.

I will pay close attention to that Nunnery result tomorrow.

Careful saying things like that - you'll ruin your reputation.

My key question is - does Nunnery ward contain any actual nuns these days? 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 19, 2023 19:07:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 19, 2023 17:59:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Yeah it was in some Euro parliament document somewhere. (Dunno if they gave parameters though)

EP is a rubber stamping operation for EC-EU and without being pedantic then EZ is not EU.

EP have some good 'documents' as we saw back when Brexit was an issue (eg www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/IPOL_STU(2017)596828 )

However, with respect to 'influence' on outcome then.. well... EP is a rubber stamping operation for EC-EU and quite literally can't instigate policy. 

"The European Parliament is the only democratically elected body in the EU. Yet, unlike most parliaments, it has no formal right of legislative initiative"
www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/655134/IPOL_STU(2020)655134_EN.pdf

Thankfully that is no longer our polity but if you do find some Euro parliament document somewhere then it would still be interesting to see. They chuck a load of stuff that EC-EU ignore - perhaps in an effort to justify their own existence in their own minds? 

They were not suggesting it themselves but were citing the ECB’s own rationale. It was the “scrutiny unit” assessing the ECB approach IIRC. I will see if I can try and find it at some point…

[steve]

pjw1961

The Nunnery Ward by-election in Worcester interests me.



That's an unusual habit😕

[RAF]

The (fairly) local paper on the Uxbridge & South Ruislip by election.

www.standard.co.uk/insider/a-kaleidoscope-of-loons-jokers-and-chancers-b1095371.html

It seems from the article that whilst Lab has a very interesting candidate, his campaign is being very tightly controlled with only limited interaction with the Press and the electirate.[Caveat - the Evennng Standard leans Conservative.]

[Danny]

Jul 19, 2023 12:02:40 GMT leftieliberal said:

The annual in-service costs of the UK's strategic nuclear deterrent, including the Atomic Weapons Establishment and the Nuclear Warhead Sustainment Capability Programme, basing, decommissioning, and disposals, are estimated at 6% of the defence budget (£3 billion for 2023/24 based on current planned expenditure).

Isnt that missing out the major capital costs of buying them, and probably no real costs for disposal as the nuclear material remains in servcie when we upgrade the equipment.

You should also factor in that the entire UK civil nuclear program only happened as an indirect subsidy to the military use of nuclear materials. Nuclear have sometimes been handy, eg in the middle of a coal strike, but has it really been cheap energy over the decades? i doubt it.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 19, 2023 19:58:50 GMT Danny said:

Jul 19, 2023 12:02:40 GMT leftieliberal said:

The annual in-service costs of the UK's strategic nuclear deterrent, including the Atomic Weapons Establishment and the Nuclear Warhead Sustainment Capability Programme, basing, decommissioning, and disposals, are estimated at 6% of the defence budget (£3 billion for 2023/24 based on current planned expenditure).

Isnt that missing out the major capital costs of buying them, and probably no real costs for disposal as the nuclear material remains in servcie when we upgrade the equipment.

You should also factor in that the entire UK civil nuclear program only happened as an indirect subsidy to the military use of nuclear materials. Nuclear have sometimes been handy, eg in the middle of a coal strike, but has it really been cheap energy over the decades? i doubt it.

nuclear could potentially be a lot cheaper. But they stuck with the version that requires expensive (and lucrative) reprocessing of fuel rods etc.

[neilj]

This sounds a bit desperate and needy

[pjw1961]

Jul 19, 2023 20:57:56 GMT neilj said:

This sounds a bit desperate and needy

Just my local MP demonstrating his uselessness. He would have been lucky to make junior minister level in one of Thatcher's administrations, never mind one of the "great offices of state". 

[Deleted]

Jul 19, 2023 17:05:55 GMT crossbat11 said:

neilj

Come on then, smarty-pants, where's the latest YouGov poll showing Sunak's all time low approval ratings???

🤔😉😋

P.S. Maybe I missed the Deltapoll then.

There's a whole lot of scrolling going on at the moment! Impending by-elections tomorrow the only thing keeping me hanging on in there in terms of UKPR, really.

Real votes and "real people" turning out tomorrow.

And on this occasion, it includes me, voting for the first time ever in a parliamentary by-election as far as I can recall. Exciting stuff, although I'm not expecting to get knocked over in the rush to squeeze through the polling station door. I believe they are counting Somerton & Frome tomorrow night, so I must ensure an adequate supply of liquid refreshment is readily to hand for a gruelling evening's election watching.

By the way, contrary to what you may have heard from meeja types such as Kirsty Wark and Beth Rigby over recent days, it's Frome as in Broom, not Frome as in Rome.

[alec]

Sounds like Farage may have a point on his ejection from Coutts. The evidence appears to show that he was ditched by them because of his political views. I think that's a slippery slope, and we should feel uncomfortable allowing essential financial services to dictate what are and are not politically acceptable opinions to their erstwhile customers. Modern life demands access to banking, so banks should be open to anyone regardless of their political stance.

While I can't stand Farage, I don't think we can duck this. Anyone who believes in human rights has to accept that adhering to such concepts sometimes means we have to support unpleasat individuals rights.