Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 22:44:51 GMT
Some mention earlier of possible light at the end of the tunnel in the context of the Cost of Living crisis. Of course, sometimes, the light at the end of the tunnel can be a train coming towards you. I noticed earlier today that the alcohol duty increases introduced last week, of which not much seems to have been made, have now taken effect. Quite noticeable they were too, to this correspondent. I can't speak for spirits, as I seldom indulge, but the average bottle of reddo seems to have risen by the full 10.1% duty increase. Thankfully, I'm also partial to a drop of Cava, which has dropped by c20p a bottle. Small consolation, though. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/15/alcohol-duty-increase-historic-blow-to-wine-and-whisky-industry |
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Post by eor on Aug 7, 2023 23:12:21 GMT
One for those interested in the potential political impacts of the continuing Trump indictments. This is a piece written by, of all people, Trump's former NSA John Bolton, someone who is usually reliable as the loon's loon on foreign policy. Quoted in full because it was originally published behind a paywall, it's by far the most analytical take I've seen on how things are.
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Donald Trump’s pursuit of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination will damage both the party and America, particularly if he succeeds. Neutral observers might think the growing mountain of legal challenges – criminal and civil – including the one filed on Tuesday in Washington, would give Trump pause, notwithstanding his current opinion-poll lead in the Republican race. And everyone not named Trump recognises the enormous risks if he becomes the first convicted felon nominated for the presidency, or worse yet elected president.
For Trump, however, staying in the race increases his chances to get the nomination and secure funding to pay his rising legal bills. If he wins next year’s general elections, as is entirely possible, he will be able to terminate the pending federal investigations and prosecutions (although not the New York and Georgia criminal proceedings) or pardon himself if already convicted.
This growing disjunction between the national interest and Trump’s personal political and economic interest is nothing new. Unfortunately, however, there is surely little doubt he will seek to maximise his personal well-being over the country’s. America is in uncharted waters.
For any normal person, the burden of defending against criminal indictments, as well as civil lawsuits (which could significantly damage his personal finances), would be more than enough to re-orient his priorities away from politics. The time involved to prepare for multiple trials and the magnitude of the legal jeopardy Trump faces should impel him to put other matters aside to concentrate on his serious risk of criminal convictions and substantial civil damages.
But Trump is an aberration. Ironically, he seems to think his best strategy is to use politics as his legal defence. His lawyers will presumably argue at every opportunity that pre-trial proceedings and the trials themselves should be delayed and delayed again, to somewhere past election day. They will file every conceivable pre-trial motion and take every appeal permissible, which follows a long history of Trump’s approach to litigation.
Moreover, given this strategy and his already extraordinarily high legal fees – estimated at roughly $56 million (£44 million) since departing the White House – he may need the presidential campaign to help finance his legal defence. His outlays include legal fees paid on behalf of aides, which in many cases raise ethical issues. Prosecutors have questioned whether lawyers representing witnesses whose interests may be adverse to Trump’s can properly accept compensation from his entities.
If Trump’s delay strategy prevails, once inaugurated he can dismiss the federal special counsel and order the cases dismissed, which is within the executive branch’s prerogative. The two state cases are a different matter, and would remain pending against Trump, though he will certainly argue that they should be stayed during his presidency. If the state prosecutions proceed, however, and Trump is found guilty in one or both, it would be very Trumpian to refuse, as president, to accept the verdicts, expecting to skate free yet again. The US would face an unprecedented constitutional crisis.
The overall effect of this abnormal turmoil on America’s confidence in the integrity of its law enforcement and government generally makes predictions hazardous. The vital question is just how deeply divisive and debilitating the consequences would be, and how long-lasting.
Internationally, America’s adversaries would swiftly take full advantage of Trump’s vulnerability and his propensity to commingle national interests with his personal interests. For Trump, obstruction of justice seems to be a way of life, with everything seen through the prism: “How does this benefit Donald Trump?”
Trump is already making clear that his governing agenda will be retribution against his political enemies. He recently asserted, erroneously, not to mention almost sacrilegiously, that “I am being indicted for you”, having proclaimed earlier, “I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” Since Trump undoubtedly sees himself as the most “wronged and betrayed” person of all, his intentions couldn’t be clearer or more dangerous.
Polls show that Americans do not want a repeat of 2020’s Biden-versus-Trump race; a majority want Trump to drop out. If someone with a rare gift of persuasion could talk sense to Trump, and persuade him to withdraw, any number of pretexts could be found to mask the real reason. Perhaps there could be “health” issues, or he could argue no one should be president in their 80s, thereby also throwing shade on Biden. And Biden may yet decide to withdraw, which could lessen the zeal of Trump supporters who want a grudge rematch against the man they think stole the 2020 election.
The only real solution lies in one or more of the criminal trials taking place before November 2024, which is still possible. If Trump is found guilty of one or more felonies, that may be sufficient to awaken enough of his supporters to abandon him, thereby derailing his campaign before he derails the country.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 7, 2023 23:29:35 GMT
Some mention earlier of possible light at the end of the tunnel in the context of the Cost of Living crisis. Of course, sometimes, the light at the end of the tunnel can be a train coming towards you. I noticed earlier today that the alcohol duty increases introduced last week, of which not much seems to have been made, have now taken effect. Quite noticeable they were too, to this correspondent. I can't speak for spirits, as I seldom indulge, but the average bottle of reddo seems to have risen by the full 10.1% duty increase. Thankfully, I'm also partial to a drop of Cava, which has dropped by c20p a bottle. Small consolation, though. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/15/alcohol-duty-increase-historic-blow-to-wine-and-whisky-industry
I'd much have preferred it if the Scots and Welsh parliaments had been allocated the powers to set alcohol duties (and get the benefits of the increased revenue, rather than the manufacturers/retailers) as well as setting MUP but, as so often, decisions made for England take precedence, along with a Treasury requirement that the maximum income goes to them, rather than the devolved administrations.
MUP has been particularly successful in limiting the deleterious effect of cheap "ciders" (or apple flavoured industrial alcohol). While England has rejected the concept of MUP, does anyone know what the effects of the new duties are on the price of these products in England? |
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Post by EmCat on Aug 7, 2023 23:34:44 GMT
"Forlorn hope: my years of supporting Aston Villa" by Crossbat11. A limited edition, signed by the author. Can you opt for an unsigned copy? That might end up being the rarer version. A friend (recently deceased) had a novel published, which met with some favourable reviews. It was a small press publisher (back in the days before self-publishing was an option). As well as limited distribution through the big chain book shops, he would also sell (signed) copies directly to friends and small independent book shops, which worked quite well, to the extent that a second print run was a distinct possibility. And then the small press publisher went bust. This would mean that all unsold copies would then be remaindered and distributed to the bargain book retailers to sell for whatever they could get. Once a book has been remaindered, then there would be close to zero chance for a subsequent print run. His options were to let it be put in the bargain bucket, or to find a way to stop it being remaindered so that the second edition (with a different publisher) could proceed. And the only way for the latter to happen was to buy up all the unsold copies (with his own savings). With a stack of books in his house, he passed the time by signing most of them (as he was still able to sell some directly to the small retailers, and directly to individuals at conventions). All of which meant that, by his own admission, there were probably fewer unsigned copies in existence than signed ones. |
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Post by eor on Aug 7, 2023 23:45:03 GMT
Is anyone surprised at this? Not at all surprised - personally I found the earlier speculation about the inquiry being done in a year or two to be bafflingly optimistic. The inquiry into the Grenfell disaster was launched six years ago, the Saville inquiry into Bloody Sunday took well over a decade, and both arguably had rather narrower and more specific frames of reference than COVID. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 0:09:21 GMT
Some mention earlier of possible light at the end of the tunnel in the context of the Cost of Living crisis. Of course, sometimes, the light at the end of the tunnel can be a train coming towards you. I noticed earlier today that the alcohol duty increases introduced last week, of which not much seems to have been made, have now taken effect. Quite noticeable they were too, to this correspondent. I can't speak for spirits, as I seldom indulge, but the average bottle of reddo seems to have risen by the full 10.1% duty increase. Thankfully, I'm also partial to a drop of Cava, which has dropped by c20p a bottle. Small consolation, though. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/15/alcohol-duty-increase-historic-blow-to-wine-and-whisky-industry
I'd much have preferred it if the Scots and Welsh parliaments had been allocated the powers to set alcohol duties (and get the benefits of the increased revenue, rather than the manufacturers/retailers) as well as setting MUP but, as so often, decisions made for England take precedence, along with a Treasury requirement that the maximum income goes to them, rather than the devolved administrations.
MUP has been particularly successful in limiting the deleterious effect of cheap "ciders" (or apple flavoured industrial alcohol). While England has rejected the concept of MUP, does anyone know what the effects of the new duties are on the price of these products in England?The attached seems to suggest that duty on cider has fallen by c9.2% from 01 Aug 23, unless it's some sort of 'rocket fuel' cider that exceeds 8.4% ABV. Not everyone on UKPR2 might bemoan this. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9765/ |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 0:15:56 GMT
Just to make it clear I haven't been banned by anyone. I don't agree with Mark's interpretation of my post but he's the administrator it's up to him. I'm just tired of the constant torrent of right wing nonsense and the faux outrage and snowflakery that some posters apply when challenged. The sheer volume of right wing bullshit that's been posted recently by a few posters and the constant winging by one poster in particular whenever he feels that his fellows have been criticised just makes this a less interesting place to visit. If I find anything that I feel other readers might be interested in I might pop in to post. Just before I go Danny that isn't how suspension and recall petitions work. Hi Steve, I don't usually do this, but I'm hoping you will reconsider any withdrawal from the group. I say this not particularly because your political views align very strongly with mine (Libdem that you are 😂) but because if you go then I feel the "good guys" will lose another member. I would agree but obviously for different reasons. steve's attempts to turn this into a Twitter echo chamber are irritating but I have to admit some of his "meme's" (if that's the right word) are amusing. And occasionally he posts something insightful. One of the reasons I will not block anyone and enjoy this site is the (usually) reasonably polite differences of opinion and occasional seeing of each other's point of view and perhaps even reaching some sort of compromise view. As such it's normally a rare island of sanity. The more aggressive posters on the left should take note of the relatively reasoned posts of pjw1961 and Rafwan with whom I sometimes agree and modify my views or rephrase things that they object to. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Aug 8, 2023 0:19:08 GMT
I have no problem with higher excise duty on products with a higher alcohol content - ensuring that government income from alcohol sales at least matches the cost to health services of treating the damage caused by alcohol consumption is a no-brainer.
I'd much have preferred it if the Scots and Welsh parliaments had been allocated the powers to set alcohol duties (and get the benefits of the increased revenue, rather than the manufacturers/retailers) as well as setting MUP but, as so often, decisions made for England take precedence, along with a Treasury requirement that the maximum income goes to them, rather than the devolved administrations.
MUP has been particularly successful in limiting the deleterious effect of cheap "ciders" (or apple flavoured industrial alcohol). While England has rejected the concept of MUP, does anyone know what the effects of the new duties are on the price of these products in England? The attached seems to suggest that duty on cider has fallen by c9.2% from 01 Aug 23, unless it's some sort of 'rocket fuel' cider that exceeds 8.4% ABV. Not everyone on UKPR2 might bemoan this. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9765/ |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 0:20:44 GMT
Danny"Behind this is the truth that political issues do not change. Membership of the EU has been a vital interest of the UK for 80 years. Before it even existed" That's a neat trick. Can you explain your reasoning?
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 0:25:24 GMT
I see the ever popular Crofty is back
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 0:33:29 GMT
I refer you to my earlier post about being called a racist. Isn't it racist that certain groups aren't allowed to be criticised because of their race? If you are specific enough, as previously explained. It is racist to suggest that entire large diverse groups, e.g, "immigrants", "muslims" or, for that matter, "white people" endorse a specific viewpoint. I'm trying to let this drop in the interests of harmony, but can you quote something I wrote that did that? If you can I'll look at it again. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 0:39:25 GMT
Thanks for the link, but (if I'm reading it correctly) that reduction only applies in pubs. The critical question is the price in supermarkets. To be fair, it seems to mention premises 'such as' pubs, without defining it further. Certainly the increases in duty on wine above ABV 12.5% seem to have been embraced by supermarkets with alacrity. Whether similar duty reductions for cider are now fully reflected in supermarket prices, I cannot say. |
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Post by eor on Aug 8, 2023 0:41:50 GMT
Danny "Behind this is the truth that political issues do not change. Membership of the EU has been a vital interest of the UK for 80 years. Before it even existed" That's a neat trick. Can you explain your reasoning? Hastings was in the EU for years before Maastricht and no-one noticed. Do try to keep up! |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 0:44:04 GMT
Well yes. If you can see light at the end of the tunnel then we're still in the tunnel. I always thought that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train coming at you. 🤣 EDIT: Beaten to it by @isa |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:01:15 GMT
One wonders to what extent the same might be true of anti drugs laws. On which topic, isnt if funny how magic mushrooms have just been heralded as a wonder drug to cure depression! I may be wrong, but I seem to remember that most drugs were legal in the UK until the early 1960s. Then, because the US invented a new form of Prohibition (with predictable results) we followed suit for some reason. e.g. Thomas de Quincey - Confessions of an English Opium Eater (which I think I still have somewhere). Sherlock Holmes took cocaine and was found in an opium den in one story. These things were disapproved of, but not illegal I think. Also bargees used to grow marijuana along canal banks, not to mention over-the-counter medicine such as Codeine and the wonderful Dr Collis Browne's Adult Cough Medicine which was brilliant! From memory it contained alcohol and opium and possibly cocaine as well. Really did the trick! |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:05:39 GMT
An engaging story that cannot possibly be true. There is no way that your beverages and snacks would only come to £15 in Richmond. I didn't realise Richmond was posh. Thanks, I'll try to avoid it. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:21:12 GMT
*** APPEAL TO ADMIN ( Mark ) *** I write to ask you to reconsider and reverse your judgment against steve deeming that his post about mercian was 'flaming'. Your judgment was made on the grounds that he was attacking the poster, not his words, and he did not reference any of mercian 's posts as a basis for this. steve 's post showed an image of a mock-up of an imaginary magazine called 'The Racist Nan', and suggested that mercian properly belonged on its centrefold, offering no further immediate explanation. Looking back over the preceding posts (about a similarly imaginary magazine), you could be forgiven for thinking steve had plucked his suggestion out of thin air and that it was indeed 'flaming'. Nothing could be further from the truth. If you go back to, say, p99, Aug 3rd, 5.26pm, mercian describes the 'great replacement' theory (widely recognised as the flagship of extreme right-wing racist groups here and elsewhere) as "blatantly, obviously true". This is followed by a lengthy, intermittent exchange with several posters, including me, steve and pjw1961 , attempting to explain the racist nature of mercian 's posts. This had no effect, with him going on to brand Muslims as anti-gays who endorse FGM, forced marriage, female oppression, honour killings, some weird version of sharia 'law' and much else. When pjw1961 put up a valiant and carefully-reasoned, evidence-based repudiation of this, mercian dismissed this as from the "lalaland of leftist orthodoxy". mercian 's posts were, by any standard, racist. It was against this backdrop that steve 's post came and it becomes very clear which of mercian 's posts it refers to. This is the basis of my appeal to you. Thank you, Mark. I realise you have an impossibly difficult job here, I thought you were one of the reasonably sensible leftists on here so I'm disappointed. I actually 'liked' steve 's post about the magazine because I found it amusing. I think you'll find that I was always saying that it was a section of muslims who had those sort of views, which is undeniable. If you can give a full quote showing otherwise I'll happily re-examine it and retract or amend it if necessary. I also said that I'd never heard of the "great replacement theory" but Wikipedia says "The original theory states that, with the complicity or cooperation of "replacist" elites, [5][8] the ethnic French and white European populations at large are being demographically and culturally replaced with non-white peoples—especially from Muslim-majority countries—through mass migration, demographic growth and a drop in the birth rate of white Europeans."
That is obviously true. There is mass migration, and there is a drop in the birth rate of white Europeans. From memory I also said that it doesn't mean that there is some sort of conspiracy going on.
I am happy to discuss this further but don't wish to clog up the main thread. Perhaps start a new sub-thread? You could call it "Bash Mercian for not being a lefty". I'd be more than happy to debate in there. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:31:12 GMT
However, that is to digress…..point is, Feckless paid the bill and B the B didn’t even say thankyou. I can quite believe it, When I met him in Droitwich I bought what I had thought would be the first pint and then he was called away on urgent canal business. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:36:16 GMT
Is the US paying the Lion's share for Europe's defence or for its own strategic power and defence interests? And almost all military spending is ultimately wasted since the object of all those weapons is deterrence not use. The expensive ships and tanks and planes end up as so much scrap. We have to keep the chaps in practice though, so getting involved in wars all over the place is good for that. Also we used to sell obsolete equipment to less developed countries, often in South America as we don't have many interests there. No idea if this still happens, but on the basis that modern governments seem not very competent. probably not. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:39:36 GMT
Posting in batches in mercian style - this might make 5 in a row and win a prize.  Edit - It did. I'll shut up now. It's because I usually come on here once, sometimes twice a day and have to catch up. I mostly either scroll past or give a 'like', but some leftist drivel cannot be ignored. 🙂 |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:41:47 GMT
I think you over-estimate the strength of partisanship by voters compared to the joys of giving 'the establishment' a good kicking. For a historical example see how the voters of Bristol South East kept returning Tony Benn to parliament in a series of by-elections in the early 1960s even though he was disqualified from being an MP due to having inherited a peerage. Their persistence led to a change in the law to allow a peerage to be disclaimed (and thereby allowed Alec Douglas-Home to become Prime Minister!). A government persecuting an MP who had done nothing to deserve it would be a perfect chance for voters to stick two fingers up to the powers that be. That'd be a brilliant pub quiz question - "Who was the last Prime Minister who was a member of the House of Lords?". 👍 |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:52:31 GMT
Not at all surprised - personally I found the earlier speculation about the inquiry being done in a year or two to be bafflingly optimistic. The inquiry into the Grenfell disaster was launched six years ago, the Saville inquiry into Bloody Sunday took well over a decade, and both arguably had rather narrower and more specific frames of reference than COVID. Do you wonder whether some of the chaps (or chapesses) appointed to do these enquiries think "Brilliant! That's my career sorted for the next few years. let's see how long we can drag it out for."? |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:55:01 GMT
Thanks for the link, but (if I'm reading it correctly) that reduction only applies in pubs. The critical question is the price in supermarkets. Can't say I've noticed it affecting pub prices, but I suppose they've had hard times lately so deserve a bit of bunce. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:58:32 GMT
Thanks for the link, but (if I'm reading it correctly) that reduction only applies in pubs. The critical question is the price in supermarkets. To be fair, it seems to mention premises 'such as' pubs, without defining it further. Certainly the increases in duty on wine above ABV 12.5% seem to have been embraced by supermarkets with alacrity. Whether similar duty reductions for cider are now fully reflected in supermarket prices, I cannot say. Not yet. It's still "Drunk for £2.40, Dead Drunk for £4.80" (parody of Hogarth, for ignoramuses benefit) |
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2023 1:59:41 GMT
Danny "Behind this is the truth that political issues do not change. Membership of the EU has been a vital interest of the UK for 80 years. Before it even existed" That's a neat trick. Can you explain your reasoning? Hastings was in the EU for years before Maastricht and no-one noticed. Do try to keep up! Brilliant! Best laugh of the night. Genuine LOL. I've finally caught up, and think I have set a new record for consecutive posts. Apologies all round. Do try not to post so much! Goodnight all. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 8, 2023 6:11:25 GMT
Is anyone surprised at this? Not at all surprised - personally I found the earlier speculation about the inquiry being done in a year or two to be bafflingly optimistic. The inquiry into the Grenfell disaster was launched six years ago, the Saville inquiry into Bloody Sunday took well over a decade, and both arguably had rather narrower and more specific frames of reference than COVID. But this is just module 1 concerning the UK's preparedness, the prequel if you wish, there are 6 modules in all. If it takes 20 months for each module then you would be looking at 10 plus years! It was originally suggested Module one would be finished early 2024, now early summer 2024. But the problem is it will then go to the Government to consider before publication. It is thought that part of the process may delay it until we arrive in the purdah period in the run upto the election, so wouldn't be published until after it It would be the delay by the Government that I unfortunately wouldn't be surprised at. This Government does have previous for delaying electorally inconvenient reports For example the Russia report, finished in March 2019, but not published until July 2020! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 8, 2023 7:01:25 GMT
A few days ago I remarked how poor public transport was in the regions of England outside of London. It seems public transport has got worse in England under the tories My own area, the West Mids has been hardest hit Worth remembering in furtherance of the tory mantra of public sector bad, private sector good that 'In 2017, the Conservatives banned local councils from setting up their own bus companies from' scratch' www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/half-local-bus-routes-axed-30649046#amp-readmore-target'Official data from the Traffic Commissioners shows there were a total of 17,394 registered bus routes in 2010. But this has plummeted with just 8,781 now remaining. Some 2,160 services were lost in just the last year alone. The West Midlands has been the hardest hit region, with the number of registered routes falling from 2,221 to 702 since 2010, a drop of more than two thirds. The number of services has fallen by 52% in the North West, 50% in the North East, 45% in the East, 43% in the West and 29% in the South East |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2023 7:25:04 GMT
The Ever Popular Crofty
So, that was you annoying the customers in the Richmond station cafe last May, was it? Old Feckless said, just before he left us, "Jeez, it's that foikin Englebert impersonator again. He'll empty this place quicker than a foikin fire alarm, you see." It was at this point that old Feckless took his leave of us to tend to his ailing hounds. Or so he claimed that was the reason.
I have to say I didn't think your version of "Please Release Me" was too bad and I thought the heckling you received was a little uncalled for. That fellow who shouted, just as he was leaving the building, "you're even worse than Humpledink" maybe caught the mood of the remaining audience, but it was a little unkind, nonetheless.
We left just as you were asking for a request from the three people left in the cafe. The wag who shouted "The Sound of Silence" wasn't me by the way.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2023 7:32:31 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 7:36:22 GMT
"Public support for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has fallen by almost a third in two years, new polling shows, as consumers turn against the policies needed to meet the government’s net-zero targets.
In a sign of increased concern about the cost of the UK’s climate change ambitions during the cost of living crisis, a YouGov poll for The Times shows that only 36 per cent of voters back the 2030 ban. This compares with more than half (51 per cent) of voters who backed the move in the run-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021.
The fall is particularly acute among potential Tory voters. While the policy was supported by 41 per cent of Tory voters in 2019, support has since dropped to 19 per cent. "
Times
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