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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 7:48:03 GMT
Powerhouse economy powering down:-
"Official figures showed that output from German factories slid by 1.5 per cent compared with May, taking the country’s index of industrial production to its lowest level since December.
It was the second month in a row that output had declined and came after the German economy had slipped into recession during the winter, having contracted in the final quarter of last year and the first three months of 2023. It stagnated in the three months to the end of June, with recent data showing there was no growth compared with the previous quarter.
Inflation has caused German households to cut their spending. Industry has been hit particularly hard by the energy crisis that erupted last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country was dependent on gas imports from Russia, which left it vulnerable to price shocks. German manufacturers have been hurt, too, by waning demand from China, where an economic rebound that followed the easing of Covid restrictions late last year has faltered.
The International Monetary Fund has predicted that Germany will be the only G7 economy to shrink this year, having recently forecast a 0.3 per cent contraction."
Times
Symptomatic of the Post Pandemic - Putin economic reality ?
And the post QE reality ? :-
"Economists interested in how an uneven wealth allocation has been an impediment to growth will look at this period of higher interest rates as a welcome opportunity to redress the balance. A concentration of wealth is not merely politically unpopular, it curtails the ability of the average voter to shape their economic outcomes. An economy that relies on the spending of a small number of companies or consumers is impeding its chance of fast growth.
Furthermore, the era of hyper-low interest rates led to money finding its way into a host of assets that had questionable contributions to growth and wellbeing. As the hurdle rate for investment increases, there will be greater focus on how money is allocated in the economy. It is one of the reasons I am optimistic about the future for productivity growth.
Initially, consumers will find these adjustments to higher productivity painful. Large parts of the modern market economy have grown up funded by very low borrowing costs, often channelled by debt-fuelled private equity funds. This source of finance meant that prices in sectors such as hospitality, fashion, transport and digital media were artificially low for the consumer. As the cost of capital rises, many operators will fail. This will cut choice and will allow surviving firms to raise prices.
Last week’s news about the appointment of administrators at Wilko, the retail chain, may symbolise the pain to come as the average interest rate on British company borrowings has risen from 2.4 per cent to 6.3 per cent, with many companies now routinely paying more than 10 per cent to refinance their borrowings.
Adaptations to behaviour as prices change, in this case the price of money, is the great advantage that the capitalist system has over alternatives. So far the fallout of interest rate increases has been muted. Recent events suggest that that is about to change."
Simon French
Times
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Post by barbara on Aug 8, 2023 7:54:02 GMT
RE the polls, I'm just reading a book called, "Falling Down - The Conservative Party and the Decline of Tory Britain" by Phil Burton- Cartilege, picked up for £2.99 in the Oxfam bookshop in Harrogate. Albeit does have a leftish slant, it's a full analysis of the Tories since 1979 and how Thatcher's policies laid the foundations for where we are now.
I've only got to the chapter on John Major's government so far but the parallels with now are remarkable, financial mismanagement, constant political scandals, polls heading south, incompetence and own goals. I know Blair was a much more charismatic and dynamic politician than Starmer is but many parts of his 1997 manifesto were as cautious as Starmer's including the commitment to match the spending of the Tories. Hopefully the next general election will go the way of 1997.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2023 7:54:41 GMT
"Public support for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has fallen by almost a third in two years, new polling shows, as consumers turn against the policies needed to meet the government’s net-zero targets. In a sign of increased concern about the cost of the UK’s climate change ambitions during the cost of living crisis, a YouGov poll for The Times shows that only 36 per cent of voters back the 2030 ban. This compares with more than half (51 per cent) of voters who backed the move in the run-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021. The fall is particularly acute among potential Tory voters. While the policy was supported by 41 per cent of Tory voters in 2019, support has since dropped to 19 per cent. " Times Isn't the challenge here for politicians brave enough to do so, to debunk the fears and scaremongering rather than pander to it? The ban on new car sales in 2030 isn't, as some fear, the deadline to get out of whatever vehicle you're currently driving and buy an electric alternative, it is instead a first key stage in the gradual and managed phasing out of petrol and diesel engine motor car use. By then, car manufacture and infrastructure development will be such that the costs and current difficulties with electric powered cars will, via sensible government, have gone. Honest communication on this is key if the essential public consent is to be gained. If we surf ignorance for political gain, the next generation will never forgive us for the desolate legacy that they will inherit. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 8, 2023 7:56:17 GMT
Well yes. If you can see light at the end of the tunnel then we're still in the tunnel. I always thought that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train coming at you. 🤣 EDIT: Beaten to it by @isa there’s quite often another tunnel after the light anyway. (A cheery thought for the day) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 8, 2023 8:00:14 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2023 8:01:32 GMT
I always thought that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train coming at you. 🤣 EDIT: Beaten to it by @isa there’s quite often another tunnel after the light anyway. (A cheery thought for the day) Very true, certainly on the Worcester-Birmingham canal. Tardebigge, Shortwood and Wasthills tunnels all within about five miles of each other. Wasthills tunnel, some 1.25 miles long, is the third longest on the British canal system. It travels under Birmingham City FC's training ground. As I glide through the tunnel in a narrow boat, in almost total darkness, I sing Villa songs throughout the 25 minutes it takes to get through. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 8:02:07 GMT
"Public support for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has fallen by almost a third in two years, new polling shows, as consumers turn against the policies needed to meet the government’s net-zero targets. In a sign of increased concern about the cost of the UK’s climate change ambitions during the cost of living crisis, a YouGov poll for The Times shows that only 36 per cent of voters back the 2030 ban. This compares with more than half (51 per cent) of voters who backed the move in the run-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021. The fall is particularly acute among potential Tory voters. While the policy was supported by 41 per cent of Tory voters in 2019, support has since dropped to 19 per cent. " Times Isn't the challenge here for politicians brave enough to do so, to debunk the fears and scaremongering rather than pander to it? The ban on new car sales in 2030 isn't, as some fear, the deadline to get out of whatever vehicle you're currently driving and buy an electric alternative, it is instead a first key stage in the gradual and managed phasing out of petrol and diesel engine motor car use. By then, car manufacture and infrastructure development will be such that the costs and current difficulties with electric powered cars will, via sensible government, have gone. Honest communication on this is key if the essential public consent is to be gained. If we surf ignorance for political gain, the next generation will never forgive us for the desolate legacy that they will inherit. Yes I agree - that is what they should certainly do. But in the new economic circumstances which i believe we are in , your " gradual and managed" transition is absolutely key. The general public cannot cope with cliff face transitions into prohibitive vehicle costs. I think that is all this survey is communicating-money worries. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 8, 2023 8:07:12 GMT
Danny "Behind this is the truth that political issues do not change. Membership of the EU has been a vital interest of the UK for 80 years. Before it even existed" That's a neat trick. Can you explain your reasoning? Hastings was in the EU for years before Maastricht and no-one noticed. Do try to keep up! A flippancy that implies a lack of concern for what we've lost which I find puzzling as you're one of the younger people here. I believe you have a young child. Are you happy for them to be limited to a British passport and not enjoy the benefits we did? My daughter has an Irish passport and if she didn't have that option I'd be enraged. Maybe kids in years to come can do a year abroad in Northern Ireland instead of Italy or Germany? Actually Britain has been in some kind of single market with other European countries since joining EFTA in 1960. That is the scale of the reckless rupture brexit represents. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 8, 2023 8:21:50 GMT
there’s quite often another tunnel after the light anyway. (A cheery thought for the day) Very true, certainly on the Worcester-Birmingham canal. Tardebigge, Shortwood and Wasthills tunnels all within about five miles of each other. Wasthills tunnel, some 1.25 miles long, is the third longest on the British canal system. It travels under Birmingham City FC's training ground. As I glide through the tunnel in a narrow boat, in almost total darkness, I sing Villa songs throughout the 25 minutes it takes to get through. If you're cycling along the canal it's worse, as you have to go over horrendously steep Wast Hill. |
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Post by johntel on Aug 8, 2023 8:39:26 GMT
there’s quite often another tunnel after the light anyway. (A cheery thought for the day) Very true, certainly on the Worcester-Birmingham canal. Tardebigge, Shortwood and Wasthills tunnels all within about five miles of each other. Wasthills tunnel, some 1.25 miles long, is the third longest on the British canal system. It travels under Birmingham City FC's training ground. As I glide through the tunnel in a narrow boat, in almost total darkness, I sing Villa songs throughout the 25 minutes it takes to get through. I've often wondered what that strange wailing is as I've driven over Spaghetti Junction |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Aug 8, 2023 8:45:38 GMT
Good to see you on here Steve. You know we don’t always agree, albeit I think mostly we do, but fight the fight. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 8, 2023 8:45:49 GMT
Very true, certainly on the Worcester-Birmingham canal. Tardebigge, Shortwood and Wasthills tunnels all within about five miles of each other. Wasthills tunnel, some 1.25 miles long, is the third longest on the British canal system. It travels under Birmingham City FC's training ground. As I glide through the tunnel in a narrow boat, in almost total darkness, I sing Villa songs throughout the 25 minutes it takes to get through. I've often wondered what that strange wailing is as I've driven over Spaghetti Junction With Albion supporters strange wailing is a common feature of them in the wild You can also spot them by their distinctive blue and white plumage |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2023 8:59:15 GMT
Very true, certainly on the Worcester-Birmingham canal. Tardebigge, Shortwood and Wasthills tunnels all within about five miles of each other. Wasthills tunnel, some 1.25 miles long, is the third longest on the British canal system. It travels under Birmingham City FC's training ground. As I glide through the tunnel in a narrow boat, in almost total darkness, I sing Villa songs throughout the 25 minutes it takes to get through. I've often wondered what that strange wailing is as I've driven over Spaghetti Junction Crikey, you've got good hearing. Wasthills is about six miles from Spaghetti Junction. Or are you referring to the magnificent Villa Park, only about a quarter of a mile from Gravelly Hill Interchange (aka Spaghetti Junction)? Much wailing there from the away end when the Villa despatched a poor Forest side 2-0 last season. Maybe audible on the Junction too. 😉🤣 |
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Post by athena on Aug 8, 2023 9:02:32 GMT
"Public support for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has fallen by almost a third in two years, new polling shows, as consumers turn against the policies needed to meet the government’s net-zero targets. In a sign of increased concern about the cost of the UK’s climate change ambitions during the cost of living crisis, a YouGov poll for The Times shows that only 36 per cent of voters back the 2030 ban. This compares with more than half (51 per cent) of voters who backed the move in the run-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021. The fall is particularly acute among potential Tory voters. While the policy was supported by 41 per cent of Tory voters in 2019, support has since dropped to 19 per cent. " Times I suspect that cost of living isn't the only factor at play here. When the 2030 ban was first mooted that date was comfortably distant and it was easy to assume that by then the price of electric cars would have fallen substantially relative to petrol and diesel models and charging infrastructure would be much improved. Now we're a lot closer and electric cars are still out of reach for most people. Given that a large majority of people always buy secondhand it's the state of the secondhand market that really matters. Delay the ban and you delay the availability of secondhand EVs. The ban is just one element of a ratchet on vehicle pollution, alongside things like expansion of ULEZ schemes and other levies on polluting vehicles. In the absence of a flourishing secondhand market in EVs it will be politically impossible to keep tightening that ratchet. Personally I think the bigger problem is going to be with gas boilers. There's a helluva lot of housing that isn't suitable for a heat pump (limited outside space for the unit, lousy insulation, old radiators with narrow pipes). Instal a heat pump in a property that isn't suitable and the residents will be shivering and cursing the electricity bill. They're also a lousy solution for people who like to economise by not heating an empty house, because a corollary of the lower operating temperature is that the response time is much longer. Upgrading insulation and pipes greatly increases the cost of switching to a heat pump, of course. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2023 9:08:43 GMT
Both of course, which is why they have done it. But it is still true that sheltering under the US wing has saved the Europeans and Japanese a lot of money they have been able to spend on more productive things. Hmm. The US did not get nothing in return. They sought to be the world superpower, and by handing them our defence we facilitated this. They got what they paid for. Whether they still want it, or still see Europe as important to them, is a question for now rather than back then. It is remarkable what can be done under the pressure of a war situation. I suspect productivity zooms upwards. OK, Germany in particular already felt the need to be productive because of what had happened to them so maybe not so much scope there. But if Europe as a whole had been under military pressure then it might have achieved very much more than it did. The US seems to have done very well despite making all these munitions, having huge armies and engaging in foreign wars. It would have underlined the importance of Europe being united. We did have a huge navy by current standards. I'm not really clear to what extent Europe was in fact fielding forces which could have stood up to Russia. The perception of Europe not pulling its weight is quite a modern one. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 8, 2023 9:09:08 GMT
"Ministers accused of ‘lawyer-bashing’ to distract from asylum policy failures
Law Society says crackdown on lawyers who act improperly is distraction from UK’s failure to clear asylum claim backlog"
So let me get this right Chalk sort of admits that the fact the UK takes twice as long to process asylum seekers claims is down to the lack of staff available to process asylum seekers claims.
So instead of having more staff processing the claims therefore reducing the backlog and the numbers of asylum seekers housed by the state Chalk wants instead those staff that they already have to investigate the solicitors submitting the claims in pursuit of what he himself described as a " minute number" that might be bogus.
Thereby diverting them from processing the asylum seeker claims and extending the delays!
We're being governed by lemmings!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2023 9:11:55 GMT
I think you over-estimate the strength of partisanship by voters compared to the joys of giving 'the establishment' a good kicking. For a historical example see how the voters of Bristol South East kept returning Tony Benn to parliament in a series of by-elections in the early 1960s even though he was disqualified from being an MP due to having inherited a peerage. That sounds awfully like voters might vote for recall just to keep having extra elections as a bit of fun. Its only a 10% threshold. And even if the 90% do not want it, there is nothing they can do to stop it. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 9:16:59 GMT
"Public support for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has fallen by almost a third in two years, new polling shows, as consumers turn against the policies needed to meet the government’s net-zero targets. In a sign of increased concern about the cost of the UK’s climate change ambitions during the cost of living crisis, a YouGov poll for The Times shows that only 36 per cent of voters back the 2030 ban. This compares with more than half (51 per cent) of voters who backed the move in the run-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021. The fall is particularly acute among potential Tory voters. While the policy was supported by 41 per cent of Tory voters in 2019, support has since dropped to 19 per cent. " Times I suspect that cost of living isn't the only factor at play here. When the 2030 ban was first mooted that date was comfortably distant and it was easy to assume that by then the price of electric cars would have fallen substantially relative to petrol and diesel models and charging infrastructure would be much improved. Now we're a lot closer and electric cars are still out of reach for most people. Given that a large majority of people always buy secondhand it's the state of the secondhand market that really matters. Delay the ban and you delay the availability of secondhand EVs. The ban is just one element of a ratchet on vehicle pollution, alongside things like expansion of ULEZ schemes and other levies on polluting vehicles. In the absence of a flourishing secondhand market in EVs it will be politically impossible to keep tightening that ratchet. Personally I think the bigger problem is going to be with gas boilers. There's a helluva lot of housing that isn't suitable for a heat pump (limited outside space for the unit, lousy insulation, old radiators with narrow pipes). Instal a heat pump in a property that isn't suitable and the residents will be shivering and cursing the electricity bill. They're also a lousy solution for people who like to economise by not heating an empty house, because a corollary of the lower operating temperature is that the response time is much longer. Upgrading insulation and pipes greatly increases the cost of switching to a heat pump, of course. Agree entirely. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 8, 2023 9:24:35 GMT
One wonders to what extent the same might be true of anti drugs laws. On which topic, isnt if funny how magic mushrooms have just been heralded as a wonder drug to cure depression! I may be wrong, but I seem to remember that most drugs were legal in the UK until the early 1960s. Then, because the US invented a new form of Prohibition (with predictable results) we followed suit for some reason. e.g. Thomas de Quincey - Confessions of an English Opium Eater (which I think I still have somewhere). Sherlock Holmes took cocaine and was found in an opium den in one story. These things were disapproved of, but not illegal I think. Also bargees used to grow marijuana along canal banks, not to mention over-the-counter medicine such as Codeine and the wonderful Dr Collis Browne's Adult Cough Medicine which was brilliant! From memory it contained alcohol and opium and possibly cocaine as well. Really did the trick! Laudanum was a big one for the Victorians - used as a painkiller, widely available, opium based and highly addictive. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 9:33:45 GMT
I received through the post this morning a tabloid-size leaflet from Sarah Dyke, the winning LDEM candidate in the recent Somerton and Frome by-election. The headline is a big 'Thank You'. It includes a bit of understandable crowing about the result and sets out her own priorities, such as reducing waiting times for GP and dental appointments.
Having never directly experienced a parliamentary by-election before, I somewhat cynically expected a post-election wall of silence politically until the GE is called, now that her election has been safely secured. I was therefore pleasantly surprised to receive the leaflet. I wonder if this is a regular occurrence after by-elections?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2023 9:33:48 GMT
" Neutral observers might think the growing mountain of legal challenges – criminal and civil – including the one filed on Tuesday in Washington, would give Trump pause, notwithstanding his current opinion-poll lead in the Republican race." This isnt to disagree with the rest of the piece, but Trump has been boxed into a corner by the lawsuits. His only defence is to become president, he cannot withdraw. In the UK Brexit happened because one of the two political parties established by law as part of a duopoly holding power in the UK, saw its standing threatened by a challenger, the libs. Plus, it had little to place it ahead of its official rival, labour. It needed a cause in an era where political parties do not have mass support causes. But then they dont need truly mass support, they only need about 25% of eligible voters to bother to vote for them. The cause it alighted on was brexit, which the nation as a whole didnt care much about, but enough did to win them power. Lab currently lack a cause. Blair invented one, 'education, education, education', for his victory. Both main parties are scared shitless about the obvious cause which could win an election now, rejoin. Neither is willing to admit to the national disaster which was lockdown. They have way more in common than distinguishes them. But all this allows what could once have been minority causes to dominate politics. Similarly in the US, but there there arent just two legally established parties, but three significant national elections which shape government. One of those is of a single man. It is possible that if one man can find a cause, as Trump did, then he personally can swing a campaign. This is made possible by the political vacuum of the lack of other causes to unite the nation behind specific candidates. It illustrates how the parties have lost a grip controlling the people. How their position is threatened. Trump subverted the process, he first sought to be a democrat candidate but ended up as a republican. The nature of US primaries allows outsiders to enter the field as party candidates. Its very like Farage having made himself Uk prime minister, which maybe he could have done if it was an elected post. (I think he would have had a very good chance) Mainstream political parties in both the US and UK no lomnger have clear differences between them. They have spent decades chasing the middle voters and ignored the wings. This has pushed them closer and closer together so neither is distinct. (I mean, you really knew what Thatcher stood for as distinct from labour). Arguably it is good to have consensus government, but the system ahs become unstable and now allows minorities to seize control. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2023 9:36:40 GMT
I have no problem with higher excise duty on products with a higher alcohol content - ensuring that government income from alcohol sales at least matches the cost to health services of treating the damage caused by alcohol consumption is a no-brainer. Thats an interesting point, but what is the cost to the NHS of illness due to alcohol consumption, and what is the amount raised by alcohol taxes? (I recall that with tobacco tax revenues and savings on pensions etc. far exceeded costs to government. A very perverse victory then to cut tobacco consumption because it made the illness/funding balance worse) |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2023 9:38:07 GMT
RE the polls, I'm just reading a book called, " Falling Down - The Conservative Party and the Decline of Tory Britain" by Phil Burton- Cartilege, picked up for £2.99 in the Oxfam bookshop in Harrogate. Albeit does have a leftish slant, it's a full analysis of the Tories since 1979 and how Thatcher's policies laid the foundations for where we are now. I've only got to the chapter on John Major's government so far but the parallels with now are remarkable, financial mismanagement, constant political scandals, polls heading south, incompetence and own goals. I know Blair was a much more charismatic and dynamic politician than Starmer is but many parts of his 1997 manifesto were as cautious as Starmer's including the commitment to match the spending of the Tories. Hopefully the next general election will go the way of 1997. I don't know if the book you're reading covers this, but I've always wondered that while Thatcherism was electorally very successful for the Tories in the short term, whether it also sowed the seeds of their subsequent electoral weakness. Put another way, was this the era when younger voters started to slowly reject Toryism and the party became increasingly dependent on the older age groups for support? It's interesting to recall that in the early days of Thatcher, she won a majority of the votes of the 18-25 age group. After 1983, some 40 years ago now, that voting pattern has never occurred again. The demographic skewing has if anything accentuated over the subsequent decades. It seems structural now. I can't see how a party that fails to win support amongst younger people can prosper in the long term, unless generations convert as they get older. That was always the assumption but recent polling suggests that this trend is reversing now and the old Tory reliance on people "seeing sense" as they get older, wiser and richer is no longer working for them. If I'm right that it was Thatcherism that began this process, what was it about that seeming electorally all conquering political philosophy that repelled younger voters over time. Does your book reveal clues? I have my thoughts on the subject, but I'd be interested to hear some expert views. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 8, 2023 9:39:40 GMT
If you are specific enough, as previously explained. It is racist to suggest that entire large diverse groups, e.g, "immigrants", "muslims" or, for that matter, "white people" endorse a specific viewpoint. I'm trying to let this drop in the interests of harmony, but can you quote something I wrote that did that? If you can I'll look at it again. Doing that would involve a long and boring post. Lets leave it for the moment and if the occasion arises again I'll post something. I must say you would have been an interesting person to have on all the various mandatory equality and diversity training we public sector types are obliged to do.  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2023 9:46:30 GMT
Danny "Behind this is the truth that political issues do not change. Membership of the EU has been a vital interest of the UK for 80 years. Before it even existed" That's a neat trick. Can you explain your reasoning? Didnt Napoleon first propose the EU? In general a united europe has existed on and off to greater and lesser extents since Roman times, and presumably before. Britain has always had to deal with this as its greatest foreign affairs issue, spilling over into trade wars and a couple of successful invasions. We have always had to negotiate with the rest of Europe. Turning this into a formal council just made all this easier and warfare has been conducted politely instead of by arms. In the 20th century Europe lost its hegemony on world power because it engaged in two massive civil wars. The only way back is a united purpose once again. While in the 19th century there was often conflict between states and rivalry for control outside europe, it only became unmanageable in ww1 and ww2. Europe has to be united. We in our own national interest need to be able to control it, and thats exactly what we were doing as members of the EU.
Its all very reminiscent of the fall of Sadam Hussein. He pretended he had weapons of mass destruction so as to control his own people. But then outside forces destroyed him because he had those weapons, which he never did. The lie in the end destroyed him. In Britain we have pretended for 50 years that the EU controlled us, when in reality we controlled it. It was the most wonderful excuse for political parties wanting to do something to say they didnt really, but the EU forced them. It was never true, it was a big lie used to pacify the nation, but in the end it killed the golden goose which had enabled us to control Europe.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 8, 2023 9:52:45 GMT
"Public support for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has fallen by almost a third in two years, new polling shows, as consumers turn against the policies needed to meet the government’s net-zero targets. In a sign of increased concern about the cost of the UK’s climate change ambitions during the cost of living crisis, a YouGov poll for The Times shows that only 36 per cent of voters back the 2030 ban. This compares with more than half (51 per cent) of voters who backed the move in the run-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021. The fall is particularly acute among potential Tory voters. While the policy was supported by 41 per cent of Tory voters in 2019, support has since dropped to 19 per cent. " Times Isn't the challenge here for politicians brave enough to do so, to debunk the fears and scaremongering rather than pander to it? The ban on new car sales in 2030 isn't, as some fear, the deadline to get out of whatever vehicle you're currently driving and buy an electric alternative, it is instead a first key stage in the gradual and managed phasing out of petrol and diesel engine motor car use. By then, car manufacture and infrastructure development will be such that the costs and current difficulties with electric powered cars will, via sensible government, have gone. Honest communication on this is key if the essential public consent is to be gained. If we surf ignorance for political gain, the next generation will never forgive us for the desolate legacy that they will inherit. As others have suggested it seems to me that voters are not anti-green policies as such but they are anti-paying for them. This applies to ULEZ as well. I think we will only be able to 'go green' by avoiding direct charges to individuals and funding the whole thing through taxation, so people pay indirectly and therefore don't notice as much. Which means higher general taxation and no hypothecated green taxes on the public (you could still on polluting businesses). Not an ideal scenario. |
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Post by barbara on Aug 8, 2023 9:55:17 GMT
RE the polls, I'm just reading a book called, " Falling Down - The Conservative Party and the Decline of Tory Britain" by Phil Burton- Cartilege, picked up for £2.99 in the Oxfam bookshop in Harrogate. Albeit does have a leftish slant, it's a full analysis of the Tories since 1979 and how Thatcher's policies laid the foundations for where we are now. I've only got to the chapter on John Major's government so far but the parallels with now are remarkable, financial mismanagement, constant political scandals, polls heading south, incompetence and own goals. I know Blair was a much more charismatic and dynamic politician than Starmer is but many parts of his 1997 manifesto were as cautious as Starmer's including the commitment to match the spending of the Tories. Hopefully the next general election will go the way of 1997. I don't know if the book you're reading covers this, but I've always wondered that while Thatcherism was electorally very successful for the Tories in the short term, whether it also sowed the seeds of their subsequent electoral weakness. Put another way, was this the era when younger voters started to slowly reject Toryism and the party became increasingly dependent on the older age groups for support? It's interesting to recall that in the early days of Thatcher, she won a majority of the votes of the 18-25 age group. After 1983, some 40 years ago now, that voting pattern has never occurred again. The demographic skewing has if anything accentuated over the subsequent decades. It seems structural now. I can't see how a party that fails to win support amongst younger people can prosper in the long term, unless generations convert as they get older. That was always the assumption but recent polling suggests that this trend is reversing now and the old Tory reliance on people "seeing sense" as they get older, wiser and richer is no longer working for them. If I'm right that it was Thatcherism that began this process, what was it about that seeming electorally all conquering political philosophy that repelled younger voters over time. Does your book reveal clues? I have my thoughts on the subject, but I'd be interested to hear some expert views. Yes it does. It's very detailed on how stuff happened and the consequences. I wouldn't say that it's earth shattering but it provides an informed and detailed analysis that is building to the premise that the current implosion of the party, the change in membership, the paucity of talent amongst the politicians is the inevitable consequence of the Thatcher's policies and actions decades ago. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2023 9:59:35 GMT
Isn't the challenge here for politicians brave enough to do so, to debunk the fears and scaremongering rather than pander to it? The ban on new car sales in 2030 isn't, as some fear, the deadline to get out of whatever vehicle you're currently driving and buy an electric alternative, it is instead a first key stage in the gradual and managed phasing out of petrol and diesel engine motor car use. By then, car manufacture and infrastructure development will be such that the costs and current difficulties with electric powered cars will, via sensible government, have gone. You really believe that is going to happen? The last labour administration had put in place measures to encourage decarbonisation. The current lot dismantled them. Labour understood you needed carrot as well as stick. Con concluded carrots were expensive. During the last 13 years we should have been ramping up carrots. It was a critical period to prepare at a steady pace. But we did the opposite. The timetable is therefore a good ten years behind. Although the real situation is probably worse than that, we have got some of the easy bits, bits which are inherently profitable to the private sector, but not the hard and expensive bits. We even banned some of the easy bits, so the installation of land based wind has slipped massively. If con had followed the lab plan then the impact of the recent enrgy shortage would have been way less on the UK, a real sving foregone by government policy. And con have not made vital decisions. The policy is incoherent as renewables demands energy storage, and there is nothing being done about this. It would cost government money, so its cancelled. The national electricity grid is only 1/5 the size it needs to be, and nothing has been done to change it. This will likely require digging up all the streets! Once every country gets into panic mode about this, equipment will become the bottleneck. Its just not going to happen without a total reversal of government support, and con will not deliver that. So if they win the next election, it simply will not happen. If labour win committed to follow con policy, it will not happen. If they actually try to make it happen, its already doubtful its now possible. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 8, 2023 10:01:10 GMT
The bizarre universe of U.S. gun obsession. Ladies and gentlemen I introduce this year's must have present for your three year old. The JR-15 Why should your child have to make do with a super soaker when they can exercise their second amendment rights and have their very own semi automatic rifle, scaled down so chubby little fingers can fit in the trigger and easily carried in the back of a baby stroller! youtu.be/yRojUekUYZg |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 8, 2023 10:07:39 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (-1)
CON: 26% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
RFM: 4% (-2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 4-7 Aug.
Changes from 28 - 31 july
Interesting that the combined Green and Reform vote is 8% - rather than the highly unlikely 17% recorded by Opinium.
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