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Post by RAF on Aug 7, 2023 19:21:57 GMT
"I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses" - I don't think anyone would. It would be the biggest security challenge for Europe since 1945. It's just as possible though that Trump turns into a massive Ukraine hawk the second he assumes office, especially if Ukraine are doing well at that point and he wants to bask in that success. He was the only president to (however briefly) attack Syrian government forces who are of course actively supported by the Russians. I think it is possible, even likely, that a Trump attempt to pull out of NATO might be one of the few things that could break apart the Republican Party - the whole 'national security hawk' and 'American empire' elements would go mad. I could see them walking out and voting with the Democrats over that, leaving Trump just with the nativist element. As evidence I offer what happened to DeSantis when he made some anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia statements early in his campaign. There was a pile on from various Republican senators and congressmen and he had to do a hasty u-turn. And that was only Ukraine - leaving NATO would be a much bigger deal. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/23/ron-desantis-ukraine-war-russia-territorial-disputeOf course a US President asking allies to shoulder a larger part of the burden enjoys popular bi-partisan support in the USA and, to be honest, is not unfair. The western world has done very well out of getting the US to pay for its defence. Is the US paying the Lion's share for Europe's defence or for its own strategic power and defence interests?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:26:23 GMT
Why would the public agree to recall an MP who was clearly blameless and subject to unjust persecution?[/quote]Because probably 70% never wanted him to be the MP in the first place? Do people customarily vote in elections (and thats really what the recall process is) on the basis that the winner last time was not from their party but did a good job so they will switch to him? Ok, this does happen and we call it an encumbency factor, usually good for a few percent extra. But most will oppose any MP because he was not their choice. Mightn't we expect that eg if the local conservative is facing this, then the local lib and lab parties will all be asking their members to get as many as possible to sign for a new election?
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Post by RAF on Aug 7, 2023 19:27:16 GMT
Following the demise of our much cherished poster, fecklessmiser, I'd like to propose a minutes keyboard applause in his memory. For those not familiar with this cyber-based payment of respects, it involves the rhythmic and repeated pressing of the space bar. To coordinate this, I will ask Mark to signal the start of the keyboard applause and then, after a minute has elapsed its end too. I had the privilege of meeting fecklessmiser once. It was a brief encounter in a station cafe in Richmond. He had a coffee and a fruit enhanced flapjack and I had a "normal" flapjack and americano coffee. My wife plumped for a rather generous slice of carrot cake and the same coffee as me. We have similar tastes in that respect. I got the impression that our old friend was anything but feckless though. He seemed careful and thoughtful in all he did. Almost robotic in a sense, as if he'd been programmed to behave in a certain way. The miser part of his moniker was entirely accurate, though. After about twenty minutes of affable badinage, he suddenly pretended he'd received an urgent text, producing a mobile phone from his inside pocket. My wife and I heard no incoming notification jingle on his phone, but he claimed a domestic emergency had broken out. Something about a pair of curs suddenly taking ill at home. He garbled his apologies and left. He left us with a bill in the region of £15, which we found a bit steep, to be honest. We noted, with not an insignificant amount of irony, that his coffee and customised flapjack were the two most expensive items on the bill too. Despite this, I'll miss his periodic postings and I bear no grudges towards him at all. I hope life brings him everything he both desires and deserves. Farewell my friend. An engaging story that cannot possibly be true. There is no way that your beverages and snacks would only come to £15 in Richmond.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:30:10 GMT
Even more importantly if there was a subsequent by-election the blameless opposition incumbent would likely win by an even bigger majority and embarrass the Government If the government didnt want an election, they wouldnt have started the process. That isnt really the point, the point would be as a mechanism to get opponents out of parliament. It has succeeded as a means to evict Johnson from parliament. He didnt even bother to see the process through.
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 7, 2023 19:30:52 GMT
*** APPEAL TO ADMIN ( Mark) *** I write to ask you to reconsider and reverse your judgment against steve deeming that his post about mercian was 'flaming'. Your judgment was made on the grounds that he was attacking the poster, not his words, and he did not reference any of mercian 's posts as a basis for this. steve 's post showed an image of a mock-up of an imaginary magazine called 'The Racist Nan', and suggested that mercian properly belonged on its centrefold, offering no further immediate explanation. Looking back over the preceding posts (about a similarly imaginary magazine), you could be forgiven for thinking steve had plucked his suggestion out of thin air and that it was indeed 'flaming'. Nothing could be further from the truth. If you go back to, say, p99, Aug 3rd, 5.26pm, mercian describes the 'great replacement' theory (widely recognised as the flagship of extreme right-wing racist groups here and elsewhere) as "blatantly, obviously true". This is followed by a lengthy, intermittent exchange with several posters, including me, steve and pjw1961 , attempting to explain the racist nature of mercian 's posts. This had no effect, with him going on to brand Muslims as anti-gays who endorse FGM, forced marriage, female oppression, honour killings, some weird version of sharia 'law' and much else. When pjw1961 put up a valiant and carefully-reasoned, evidence-based repudiation of this, mercian dismissed this as from the "lalaland of leftist orthodoxy". mercian 's posts were, by any standard, racist. It was against this backdrop that steve 's post came and it becomes very clear which of mercian 's posts it refers to. This is the basis of my appeal to you. Thank you, Mark. I realise you have an impossibly difficult job here,
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:33:03 GMT
I refer you to my earlier post about being called a racist. Isn't it racist that certain groups aren't allowed to be criticised because of their race? If you are specific enough, as previously explained. It is racist to suggest that entire large diverse groups, e.g, "immigrants", "muslims" or, for that matter, "white people" endorse a specific viewpoint. So its racist to claim all immigrants to the UK want to live in Britain?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:34:22 GMT
Pressure grows on Nadine Dorries to do the decent thing. What, to spill the dirt on former colleagues?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:42:04 GMT
This happened back in 2010 and other years around then. But if you dug into the figures more, what actually happened was that those on high wages enjoyed above average rises, and those on low wages got below average. Its very likely this means the rich once again get to escape the inflation problem, but the poor do not.
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 7, 2023 19:56:11 GMT
Immigration issue is back in the news and a piece mentioning how LAB can show they do have something realistic to offer that is not something CON are doing or intend to do.
"The desire to solve the ‘small boats’ issue represents a rare consensus, writes Sean O’Grady. The problem is how to do it, and what credible alternative plans do Labour have? The answer may already have been suggested years ago..."
ID Cards www.independent.co.uk/voices/mirgation-ascension-labour-id-cards-b2388808.htmlObviously wouldn't solve the issue all by itself but it is a vital part of the package of measures needed - one that CON seem to ignore. Hopefully LAB will say they'll introduce them and I note the policy would be popular: Support for the introduction of a system of national identity cards in the UKyougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/support-for-the-introduction-of-a-system-of-national-identity-cards-in-the-ukOverall Support 55%, although much higher with LAB's target voter: CON at 71%.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:59:51 GMT
I'd be interested to see analysis of how different groups have fared. For some (eg pensioners who own their home outright, with some savings and tripled locked pension) they've seen a rise in disposable income and will likely get an inflation+ pay rise when the triple lock indexes off of average wages. Hmm. Except this period of change in state pensions has also coincided with private pension schemes becoming very much less generous. Time was, your company would have provided a manual worker with a final salary indexed pension. in the last few decades? So lets say that means minimum three decades, so about 1990. Then the average house price was £58,000 or in purchasing power terms now £115,000. The actual price of a house today costing that in 1990 is 257,000 according to Nationwide house price index. So roughly prices need to halve in current amounts to get back to how they were. Do you think we should expect anything like a 50% drop? And if we did would we see the biggest financial crisis of this century?
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 7, 2023 20:07:56 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 18% nationally. Westminster VI (6 August): Labour 45% (+2) Conservative 27% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Reform UK 8% (+1) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Other 1% (-2) Changes +/- 30 July There used to be a sort of received wisdom that the summer Parliamentary recess and holidays more generally, helped beleaguered governments and worked a little against oppositions keen to get the oxygen of air time and attention and maintain momentum. I'm not sure whether this was ever borne out in reality, but it does make some sense. No Commons grillings for a while, the disappearance of big audience mainstream TV political programmes and the general reluctance of politicians to disturb the public holiday respite. This should be advantageous to governments who want nothing better than the focus to be elsewhere. The less the public are reminded of them and their problems surely the better. The polls however, sadly for Sunak and his government, show no evidence of any benefit from being out of sight and out of mind for a bit. This is further evidence to me that there is a sort of settled will afoot now and the electorate are waiting, a little impatiently too, to put the incumbents out of their misery and to elect a new government. For them to be persuaded over the next 12 months to re-elect another Tory Government seems utterly inconceivable to me. A political resurrection beyond anyone's ken. The Tories have been dead in the polls for over a year now. This is no easily reversible dose of the mid-term blues.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 20:09:39 GMT
Since you are mentioning it, I presume you think labour voters would dispprove of being required to hold ID cards?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 20:37:37 GMT
Following the demise of our much cherished poster, fecklessmiser, I'd like to propose a minutes keyboard applause in his memory. For those not familiar with this cyber-based payment of respects, it involves the rhythmic and repeated pressing of the space bar. To coordinate this, I will ask Mark to signal the start of the keyboard applause and then, after a minute has elapsed its end too. I had the privilege of meeting fecklessmiser once. It was a brief encounter in a station cafe in Richmond. He had a coffee and a fruit enhanced flapjack and I had a "normal" flapjack and americano coffee. My wife plumped for a rather generous slice of carrot cake and the same coffee as me. We have similar tastes in that respect. I got the impression that our old friend was anything but feckless though. He seemed careful and thoughtful in all he did. Almost robotic in a sense, as if he'd been programmed to behave in a certain way. The miser part of his moniker was entirely accurate, though. After about twenty minutes of affable badinage, he suddenly pretended he'd received an urgent text, producing a mobile phone from his inside pocket. My wife and I heard no incoming notification jingle on his phone, but he claimed a domestic emergency had broken out. Something about a pair of curs suddenly taking ill at home. He garbled his apologies and left. He left us with a bill in the region of £15, which we found a bit steep, to be honest. We noted, with not an insignificant amount of irony, that his coffee and customised flapjack were the two most expensive items on the bill too. Despite this, I'll miss his periodic postings and I bear no grudges towards him at all. I hope life brings him everything he both desires and deserves. Farewell my friend. An engaging story that cannot possibly be true. There is no way that your beverages and snacks would only come to £15 in Richmond. Except it was Richmond, N.Yorkshire so £15 would have been pricey. How do I know this? I was there performing my Englebert Humperdinck tribute act (contact my agent if interested) and noticed my old friend Feckless sitting at a table with a nice lady and a rather miserable looking bloke. I knew Feckless from the days I used to perform Dubliners medleys at the Irish Club in Scotswood, Newcastle where he was the bouncer (or “boonsah” as they say in Geordieland.) He was very, very tight as well as extremely violent and, being Irish (or “Oirish” as they prefer) whenever accused of being a miser he would reply: “Oi couldn’t give a feck” before nutting the accuser - hence his affectionate nickname. I noticed that, unusually, HE was paying the bill for all three and was clearly very keen to get away from the couple, whispering to me extremely loudly: “Oi can’t speak Brummie and oi haven’t a fecking clue what the fecker is on about.” At that point Batty’s Missis asked if I could sing a request for Batty but, embarrassingly, asked for “Please Release Me.” I did so (performing it in Eb major one of the most difficult keys known to guitarists) and - obviously - it was hugely popular with a very on-trend audience of music lovers. Batty? Not so much (as someone in the on trend audience might have put it.) However, that is to digress…..point is, Feckless paid the bill and B the B didn’t even say thankyou.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 20:42:08 GMT
domjg - "..Alec, you're like a good news angel when it comes to Ukraine. If only they had air support." Technical Quibble - angels don't need air support. @crofty - adjudicate please. OK. That was a carp and you have to go back three places. (Easy beginner’s Miss Steak.)
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 21:08:59 GMT
I think it is possible, even likely, that a Trump attempt to pull out of NATO might be one of the few things that could break apart the Republican Party - the whole 'national security hawk' and 'American empire' elements would go mad. I could see them walking out and voting with the Democrats over that, leaving Trump just with the nativist element. As evidence I offer what happened to DeSantis when he made some anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia statements early in his campaign. There was a pile on from various Republican senators and congressmen and he had to do a hasty u-turn. And that was only Ukraine - leaving NATO would be a much bigger deal. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/23/ron-desantis-ukraine-war-russia-territorial-disputeOf course a US President asking allies to shoulder a larger part of the burden enjoys popular bi-partisan support in the USA and, to be honest, is not unfair. The western world has done very well out of getting the US to pay for its defence. Is the US paying the Lion's share for Europe's defence or for its own strategic power and defence interests? Both of course, which is why they have done it. But it is still true that sheltering under the US wing has saved the Europeans and Japanese a lot of money they have been able to spend on more productive things. Imagine during the cold war if the US had not been involved and West Germany had been obliged to have a standing army of 2m men, with a couple of dozen panzer divisions and a large air force - could they then have had the industrial 'miracle' they enjoyed in the post war years? Likewise imagine Britain had had to maintain a Royal Navy three times the size of the actual one in the same period - could we have afforded the post war NHS and social security? And almost all military spending is ultimately wasted since the object of all those weapons is deterrence not use. The expensive ships and tanks and planes end up as so much scrap.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 21:22:35 GMT
If you are specific enough, as previously explained. It is racist to suggest that entire large diverse groups, e.g, "immigrants", "muslims" or, for that matter, "white people" endorse a specific viewpoint. So its racist to claim all immigrants to the UK want to live in Britain? Not racist, as it is not insulting, but almost certainly inaccurate. I expect there are many from Ukraine, Hong Kong, Syria and Iran (for example) who sincerely wish they could return home. That is the danger of generalising about large disparate groups - it is rarely accurate or illuminating.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 21:30:03 GMT
Why would the public agree to recall an MP who was clearly blameless and subject to unjust persecution? Because probably 70% never wanted him to be the MP in the first place? Do people customarily vote in elections (and thats really what the recall process is) on the basis that the winner last time was not from their party but did a good job so they will switch to him? Ok, this does happen and we call it an encumbency factor, usually good for a few percent extra. But most will oppose any MP because he was not their choice. Mightn't we expect that eg if the local conservative is facing this, then the local lib and lab parties will all be asking their members to get as many as possible to sign for a new election? I think you over-estimate the strength of partisanship by voters compared to the joys of giving 'the establishment' a good kicking. For a historical example see how the voters of Bristol South East kept returning Tony Benn to parliament in a series of by-elections in the early 1960s even though he was disqualified from being an MP due to having inherited a peerage. Their persistence led to a change in the law to allow a peerage to be disclaimed (and thereby allowed Alec Douglas-Home to become Prime Minister!). A government persecuting an MP who had done nothing to deserve it would be a perfect chance for voters to stick two fingers up to the powers that be.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 21:36:53 GMT
An engaging story that cannot possibly be true. There is no way that your beverages and snacks would only come to £15 in Richmond. Except it was Richmond, N.Yorkshire so £15 would have been pricey. How do I know this? I was there performing my Englebert Humperdinck tribute act (contact my agent if interested) and noticed my old friend Feckless sitting at a table with a nice lady and a rather miserable looking bloke. When you were there did you notice any deceased badgers lying around, culled perhaps, befuddled possibly?
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 21:38:09 GMT
Posting in batches in mercian style - this might make 5 in a row and win a prize. Edit - It did. I'll shut up now.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 7, 2023 21:42:14 GMT
Why would the public agree to recall an MP who was clearly blameless and subject to unjust persecution? Because probably 70% never wanted him to be the MP in the first place? Do people customarily vote in elections (and thats really what the recall process is) on the basis that the winner last time was not from their party but did a good job so they will switch to him? Ok, this does happen and we call it an encumbency factor, usually good for a few percent extra. But most will oppose any MP because he was not their choice. Mightn't we expect that eg if the local conservative is facing this, then the local lib and lab parties will all be asking their members to get as many as possible to sign for a new election? I think you over-estimate the strength of partisanship by voters compared to the joys of giving 'the establishment' a good kicking. For a historical example see how the voters of Bristol South East kept returning Tony Benn to parliament in a series of by-elections in the early 1960s even though he was disqualified from being an MP due to having inherited a peerage. Their persistence led to a change in the law to allow a peerage to be disclaimed (and thereby allowed Alec Douglas-Home to become Prime Minister!). A government persecuting an MP who had done nothing to deserve it would be a perfect chance for voters to stick two fingers up to the powers that be. Probably true, in the sense that otherwise Macmillan probably wouldn't have advised the monarch that Home should replace him, but Home was appointed PM 4 days before resigning his peerage, and subsequently spent 20 days as PM, while being a member of neither House.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 21:49:07 GMT
Following the demise of our much cherished poster, fecklessmiser, I'd like to propose a minutes keyboard applause in his memory. For those not familiar with this cyber-based payment of respects, it involves the rhythmic and repeated pressing of the space bar. To coordinate this, I will ask Mark to signal the start of the keyboard applause and then, after a minute has elapsed its end too. I had the privilege of meeting fecklessmiser once. It was a brief encounter in a station cafe in Richmond. He had a coffee and a fruit enhanced flapjack and I had a "normal" flapjack and americano coffee. My wife plumped for a rather generous slice of carrot cake and the same coffee as me. We have similar tastes in that respect. I got the impression that our old friend was anything but feckless though. He seemed careful and thoughtful in all he did. Almost robotic in a sense, as if he'd been programmed to behave in a certain way. The miser part of his moniker was entirely accurate, though. After about twenty minutes of affable badinage, he suddenly pretended he'd received an urgent text, producing a mobile phone from his inside pocket. My wife and I heard no incoming notification jingle on his phone, but he claimed a domestic emergency had broken out. Something about a pair of curs suddenly taking ill at home. He garbled his apologies and left. He left us with a bill in the region of £15, which we found a bit steep, to be honest. We noted, with not an insignificant amount of irony, that his coffee and customised flapjack were the two most expensive items on the bill too. Despite this, I'll miss his periodic postings and I bear no grudges towards him at all. I hope life brings him everything he both desires and deserves. Farewell my friend. An engaging story that cannot possibly be true. There is no way that your beverages and snacks would only come to £15 in Richmond. Certainly not the south-west London one, of which I have some experience, I suspect. Can't speak for the N. Yorks. version.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 21:55:06 GMT
Posting in batches in mercian style - this might make 5 in a row and win a prize. Edit - It did. I'll shut up now. What was the prize? I might have a go.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 21:56:15 GMT
Except it was Richmond, N.Yorkshire so £15 would have been pricey. How do I know this? I was there performing my Englebert Humperdinck tribute act (contact my agent if interested) and noticed my old friend Feckless sitting at a table with a nice lady and a rather miserable looking bloke. When you were there did you notice any deceased badgers lying around, culled perhaps, befuddled possibly? To busy with my Englebert medley - it’s very tricky stuff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 21:56:48 GMT
Pressure grows on Nadine Dorries to do the decent thing. What, to spill the dirt on former colleagues? That would be nice, but I was thinking more of just resigning, as she said she would do "with immediate effect" in June. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65910896
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 22:12:36 GMT
Posting in batches in mercian style - this might make 5 in a row and win a prize. Edit - It did. I'll shut up now. What was the prize? I might have a go. "Forlorn hope: my years of supporting Aston Villa" by Crossbat11. A limited edition, signed by the author.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 22:17:36 GMT
I think you over-estimate the strength of partisanship by voters compared to the joys of giving 'the establishment' a good kicking. For a historical example see how the voters of Bristol South East kept returning Tony Benn to parliament in a series of by-elections in the early 1960s even though he was disqualified from being an MP due to having inherited a peerage. Their persistence led to a change in the law to allow a peerage to be disclaimed (and thereby allowed Alec Douglas-Home to become Prime Minister!). A government persecuting an MP who had done nothing to deserve it would be a perfect chance for voters to stick two fingers up to the powers that be. You've reminded of a quip by the late Fred Wedlock, the original "Oldest Swinger in Town", who, when introducing a new turn at a comedy gig, described the act as "the funniest thing to come to Bristol since Wedgwood Benn".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 22:19:19 GMT
Deleted - inadvertent double post.
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Post by EmCat on Aug 7, 2023 22:33:42 GMT
It's only pedantry if it comes from the pedant region of France. Otherwise it's just sparkling literalism
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Post by eor on Aug 7, 2023 22:36:49 GMT
"I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses" - I don't think anyone would. It would be the biggest security challenge for Europe since 1945. It's just as possible though that Trump turns into a massive Ukraine hawk the second he assumes office, especially if Ukraine are doing well at that point and he wants to bask in that success. He was the only president to (however briefly) attack Syrian government forces who are of course actively supported by the Russians. I think it is possible, even likely, that a Trump attempt to pull out of NATO might be one of the few things that could break apart the Republican Party - the whole 'national security hawk' and 'American empire' elements would go mad. I could see them walking out and voting with the Democrats over that, leaving Trump just with the nativist element. As evidence I offer what happened to DeSantis when he made some anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia statements early in his campaign. There was a pile on from various Republican senators and congressmen and he had to do a hasty u-turn. And that was only Ukraine - leaving NATO would be a much bigger deal. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/23/ron-desantis-ukraine-war-russia-territorial-disputeOf course a US President asking allies to shoulder a larger part of the burden enjoys popular bi-partisan support in the USA and, to be honest, is not unfair. The western world has done very well out of getting the US to pay for its defence. I think if he's President, the party impact is probably quite limited? I agree if he were to go down that route, especially whilst the Ukraine war is ongoing, he could realistically expect to get overruled by an alliance of Democrats and Republicans in both houses of Congress. But beyond losing the vote (and being prevented from taking the US out of NATO), there isn't necessarily much further impact to the Republican Party, it wouldn't stop Congressional Republicans voting in support of his agenda on anything else, before, after or during such a fight. Think you're spot on on the global question, making their allies pay their way is something he'd push hard for because it's easy domestic popularity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 22:43:33 GMT
What was the prize? I might have a go. "Forlorn hope: my years of supporting Aston Villa" by Crossbat11. A limited edition, signed by the author. Can you opt for an unsigned copy?
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