neilj
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Posts: 6,393
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Post by neilj on Aug 7, 2023 16:00:27 GMT
Redfield Wilton
Labour leads by 18% nationally.
Westminster VI (6 August):
Labour 45% (+2) Conservative 27% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Reform UK 8% (+1) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 30 July
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Aug 7, 2023 16:33:03 GMT
Latest YG -
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Sunak : Eng 25% : Wal 16% : Sco 14% Starmer : Eng 31% : Wal 36% : Sco 32% Not Sure : Eng 40% : Wal 44% : Sco 48%
I'm "not sure" that "Not Sure" is the accurate descriptor here. It seems more likely that the doubt is that either of the candidates would be any good.
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Post by johntel on Aug 7, 2023 16:38:14 GMT
Call me pedantic, but can I just point out that there's no need to sign a post when your name has already appeared at the top? Thanks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 16:41:44 GMT
Agreed. I think Time For A Change will be the overwhelming sentiment come the day. Starmer just needs to stay out of trouble. Yes- A Trump win will be a complete and utter disaster for Europe. "A Trump win will be a complete and utter disaster for Europe" - A disaster for the world. I don't think it will happen but if he wins the nomination we'll all be living in a world of stress until after polling day. I'd like to think that if he did win Europe collectively (maybe including Canada, Australia and possibly even Japan) would have the wherewithal to move to a war economy and focus on arms production and military recruitment and training. Looking at it from a historical perspective there should be no reason why European NATO countries plus others with their vastly larger collective population, wealth, resources and stability should not ourselves be able to pick up the slack relatively easily and deal with Russia. Of course it wouldn't happen though.. I share the sentiment behind " A disaster for the world". But its sobering to think that great chunks of it will not give a toss , being in the Russian sphere of influence-S. America/Africa/India/chunks of Asia. On NATO I agree that it wouldn't happen. I dont think there is the capacity to replace USA-let alone the willingness. Doesn't bear thinking about does it ? So lets hope the octenegarian president can stay on his feet more often. Do you think Starmer is capable of dealing with a world like that ?. I cant decide whether he is indecisive or pragmatic. I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 7, 2023 16:43:19 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 16:45:52 GMT
The article says :- "However, he was not entirely optimistic. Webb’s research suggests that household disposable income will not reach pre-pandemic levels for another 18 months. “Households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch,” he said. “We suspect the level of real household disposable income will remain below where it was before the pandemic until early 2025." Not much joy in prospect for Sunak there. And my adult grand children still wont be able to buy their own houses. It was getting the deposit together before-now its the repayments as well. Honestly @trevor I think talk of lights at the end of the tunnel will just get a response that we are still in the f-ing tunnel though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 16:53:27 GMT
Call me pedantic, but can I just point out that there's no need to sign a post when your name has already appeared at the top? Thanks. Bit pedantic. The EPC.
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Post by alec on Aug 7, 2023 16:54:57 GMT
Ukraine: Just starting to see a few comments from observers with a good prior record of more accurate predictions starting to talk about expectations of significant movement on the front in the coming weeks. This seems to be based on Ukrainian success at disrupting Russian logistics, a tactic used prior to the Kharkiv and Kherson collapses.
The comments claim that Russian defence is based upon substandard trenches protected by tens of thousands of forward laid mines, slowing any advance, allied to overwhelming artillery. This has been successful so far, but the Ukrainians are attempting to throttle the logistics supplies of the mines and artillery, and if this is successful, the Russian trenches, which are far better and harder to penetrate on the Ukrainian side, become very vulnerable.
Ukraine has been hitting supply depots and bridges, with smaller routes into Crimea also being hit, alongside the big bridge, and observers are claiming that there are increasing signs of stress in Russian supply lines. At present, the main supply road across the south is just outside the range of most of Ukrainian weapons, a factor that dictated Russian defensive designs, but if the first lines are breached, then that risks the entire southern supply system. The recent naval attacks by Ukraine have been seen as a sign that they think they are getting close to this point, so they are also trying to disrupt sea born supplies.
I don't know how true any of this is, but the online sources making these claims have been more accurate than not in the course of the war up to now. One to watch, but most of them don't discount the possibility of further rapid collapses in the Russian lines, and if these do occur, Russia doesn't have a great deal of leeway on the southern zone. They risk having their force sliced in two, and facing difficulties keeping Crimea supplied.
One to watch.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 17:04:47 GMT
How do I place a photo on my avatar? Please write s l o w l y as I am a musician not an iPad genius.
Gracias
El EPC.
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,127
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Post by domjg on Aug 7, 2023 17:07:54 GMT
"A Trump win will be a complete and utter disaster for Europe" - A disaster for the world. I don't think it will happen but if he wins the nomination we'll all be living in a world of stress until after polling day. I'd like to think that if he did win Europe collectively (maybe including Canada, Australia and possibly even Japan) would have the wherewithal to move to a war economy and focus on arms production and military recruitment and training. Looking at it from a historical perspective there should be no reason why European NATO countries plus others with their vastly larger collective population, wealth, resources and stability should not ourselves be able to pick up the slack relatively easily and deal with Russia. Of course it wouldn't happen though.. I share the sentiment behind " A disaster for the world". But its sobering to think that great chunks of it will not give a toss , being in the Russian sphere of influence-S. America/Africa/India/chunks of Asia. On NATO I agree that it wouldn't happen. I dont think there is the capacity to replace USA-let alone the willingness. Doesn't bear thinking about does it ? So lets hope the octenegarian president can stay on his feet more often. Do you think Starmer is capable of dealing with a world like that ?. I cant decide whether he is indecisive or pragmatic. I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses. "I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses" - I don't think anyone would. It would be the biggest security challenge for Europe since 1945. It's just as possible though that Trump turns into a massive Ukraine hawk the second he assumes office, especially if Ukraine are doing well at that point and he wants to bask in that success. He was the only president to (however briefly) attack Syrian government forces who are of course actively supported by the Russians.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 17:10:51 GMT
"I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses" - I don't think anyone would. It would be the biggest security challenge for Europe since 1945. It's just as possible though that Trump turns into a massive Ukraine hawk the second he assumes office, especially if Ukraine are doing well at that point and he wants to bask in that success. He was the only president to (however briefly) attack Syrian government forces who are of course actively supported by the Russians. You offer a glimmer of hope !-I'll hang on to that and pray that Biden stays upright.
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Post by johntel on Aug 7, 2023 17:13:03 GMT
It seems I'm being flamed by the Evangelical Presbyterian Church. If you don't stop I'm going to tell St. Mark.
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Post by alec on Aug 7, 2023 17:30:23 GMT
johntel - if it's flaming, you need to speak to St Lawrence.
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,127
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Post by domjg on Aug 7, 2023 17:33:12 GMT
Ukraine: Just starting to see a few comments from observers with a good prior record of more accurate predictions starting to talk about expectations of significant movement on the front in the coming weeks. This seems to be based on Ukrainian success at disrupting Russian logistics, a tactic used prior to the Kharkiv and Kherson collapses. The comments claim that Russian defence is based upon substandard trenches protected by tens of thousands of forward laid mines, slowing any advance, allied to overwhelming artillery. This has been successful so far, but the Ukrainians are attempting to throttle the logistics supplies of the mines and artillery, and if this is successful, the Russian trenches, which are far better and harder to penetrate on the Ukrainian side, become very vulnerable. Ukraine has been hitting supply depots and bridges, with smaller routes into Crimea also being hit, alongside the big bridge, and observers are claiming that there are increasing signs of stress in Russian supply lines. At present, the main supply road across the south is just outside the range of most of Ukrainian weapons, a factor that dictated Russian defensive designs, but if the first lines are breached, then that risks the entire southern supply system. The recent naval attacks by Ukraine have been seen as a sign that they think they are getting close to this point, so they are also trying to disrupt sea born supplies. I don't know how true any of this is, but the online sources making these claims have been more accurate than not in the course of the war up to now. One to watch, but most of them don't discount the possibility of further rapid collapses in the Russian lines, and if these do occur, Russia doesn't have a great deal of leeway on the southern zone. They risk having their force sliced in two, and facing difficulties keeping Crimea supplied. One to watch. God I hope you're right Alec, you're like a good news angel when it comes to Ukraine. If only they had air support. If you think about it it's bonkers. NATO countries provide billions in equipment, training and intelligence and yet leave that all vulnerable with no solid air cover. No NATO army would do that much logistical preparation and commit that many assets and personnel without effective air superiority. If the Ukrainians can't make progress without it I'd like to hope demands of us start to appear to provide it.
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 7, 2023 17:45:20 GMT
The article says :- "However, he was not entirely optimistic. Webb’s research suggests that household disposable income will not reach pre-pandemic levels for another 18 months. “Households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch,” he said. “We suspect the level of real household disposable income will remain below where it was before the pandemic until early 2025." Not much joy in prospect for Sunak there. And my adult grand children still wont be able to buy their own houses. It was getting the deposit together before-now its the repayments as well. Honestly @trevor I think talk of lights at the end of the tunnel will just get a response that we are still in the f-ing tunnel though. Well yes. If you can see light at the end of the tunnel then we're still in the tunnel. I'd be interested to see analysis of how different groups have fared. For some (eg pensioners who own their home outright, with some savings and tripled locked pension) they've seen a rise in disposable income and will likely get an inflation+ pay rise when the triple lock indexes off of average wages. For others (eg most workers who rent/have a large mortgage coming off a previous low fix) then the tunnel was a lot darker and will take a lot longer to get back to where they were pre-pandemic. On housing then lower prices and rising wages will start to reverse some of the huge change in affordability in the last few decades (ie income multiples will mean houses are slightly more affordable) but yes, the deposit and repayments issue is still there. That is a much longer tunnel to come out of for sure. I'm not talking about 'Sunlit Uplands' and did also mention the 'data lag' but it's still best part of 18mths to a GE and 'Cost of Living' is the most important issue.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 7, 2023 17:53:16 GMT
Is anyone surprised at this?
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 7, 2023 17:53:22 GMT
The article says :- "However, he was not entirely optimistic. Webb’s research suggests that household disposable income will not reach pre-pandemic levels for another 18 months. “Households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch,” he said. “We suspect the level of real household disposable income will remain below where it was before the pandemic until early 2025." Not much joy in prospect for Sunak there. And my adult grand children still wont be able to buy their own houses. It was getting the deposit together before-now its the repayments as well. Honestly @trevor I think talk of lights at the end of the tunnel will just get a response that we are still in the f-ing tunnel though. Well yes. If you can see light at the end of the tunnel then we're still in the tunnel. I'd be interested to see analysis of how different groups have fared. For some (eg pensioners who own their home outright, with some savings and tripled locked pension) they've seen a rise in disposable income and will likely get an inflation+ pay rise when the triple lock indexes off of average wages. For others (eg most workers who rent/have a large mortgage coming off a previous low fix) then the tunnel was a lot darker and will take a lot longer to get back to where they were pre-pandemic. On housing then lower prices and rising wages will start to reverse some of the huge change in affordability in the last few decades (ie income multiples will mean houses are slightly more affordable) but yes, the deposit and repayments issue is still there. That is a much longer tunnel to come out of for sure. I'm not talking about 'Sunlit Uplands' and did also mention the 'data lag' but it's still best part of 18mths to a GE and 'Cost of Living' is the most important issue. We are probably now barely 13 months from an election being announced - with a Dissolution in the first half of Sptember next year.
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 7, 2023 17:54:13 GMT
How do I place a photo on my avatar? Please write s l o w l y as I am a musician not an iPad genius. Gracias El EPC. Ask the old Crofty - he managed it OK. And he had a lovely photo.
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Post by athena on Aug 7, 2023 18:04:55 GMT
How do I place a photo on my avatar? Please write s l o w l y as I am a musician not an iPad genius. Instructions are given in the Help menu (second from left in the blue title bar for the board) under User Guide -> Avatars.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 7, 2023 18:27:51 GMT
colin"my adult grand children still wont be able to buy their own houses. It was getting the deposit together before-now its the repayments as well. Honestly @trevor I think talk of lights at the end of the tunnel will just get a response that we are still in the f-ing tunnel though." Agree, real wages are lower than 2005, people feel the hurt. Wages would have to rise significantly above inflation just to get people back to where they were 18 years ago
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 18:29:21 GMT
How do I place a photo on my avatar? Please write s l o w l y as I am a musician not an iPad genius. Instructions are given in the Help menu (second from left in the blue title bar for the board) under User Guide -> Avatars. That already sounds too complicated…
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 7, 2023 18:31:14 GMT
Whilst I cannot abide Nadine Dorries, I don't agree with changing the rules to get rid of her. Looking back over the generations many examples could be found of MPs being absent for extended periods, and I would not feel comfortable with bringing in any change simply to get at her. More generally, there is no job description which requires MPs to attend or hold surgeries or indeed deal with casework of any kind. How much casework etc did the likes of Asquith - Edward Grey - Lloyd George - Baldwin - Churchill - or even Attlee carry out for their constituents? I do not know the answer, but suspect that they did very little on that front.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 18:33:20 GMT
Even more importantly if there was a subsequent by-election the blameless opposition incumbent would likely win by an even bigger majority and embarrass the Government While I agree that Danny somewhat exaggerates the risk of a party, with a large majority of MPs, removing all opposition MPs, one of the problems with the constitutional arrangements that the UK puts in place from time to time, that they can end up being abused. An example would be the cross-party choice of Unionist MPs in the 19th century to counter the tactics of the Irish Nationalists by transferring effective control of Commons business from MPs to the Government. The consequence has been that, over time, governments have centralised power in Downing St - not what was originally intended. In the USA, Republicans and Democrats, not infrequently, co-operate at county, state and congressional level, to ensure that no 3rd party can intrude on their duopoly of power. Only one of the 3 conditions for ordering a recall petition is capable of misuse by the dominant party/parties - but one is enough. 1. Conviction in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted. Note – a sentence over 12 months in jail automatically disqualifies someone from being an MP; 2. Convicted of an offence under section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009 (making false or misleading Parliamentary allowances claims). Note – the sentence does not have to be custodial for this condition. 3. Suspension from the House following report and recommended sanction from the Committee on Standards for a specified period (at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified)Following this through, it is likely a weak threat against innocent opposition MPs because the next step is a recall petition in the constituency, which will likely resent having its MP mucked about for no good reason, and even if that hurdle is passed there is then a by-election with every reason to assume the sitting MP would be returned. However, it might make a very useful disciplinary threat against your own backbenchers (assuming the government doesn't mind losing a by-election) - i.e. "toe the line or we won't just remove the whip or expel you but also make sure you won't remain an MP for long."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 18:35:10 GMT
How do I place a photo on my avatar? Please write s l o w l y as I am a musician not an iPad genius. Gracias El EPC. Ask the old Crofty - he managed it OK. And he had a lovely photo. I was told to eat the instructions after setting it up and I’ve no idea what I did now.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 7, 2023 18:46:52 GMT
Following the demise of our much cherished poster, fecklessmiser, I'd like to propose a minutes keyboard applause in his memory. For those not familiar with this cyber-based payment of respects, it involves the rhythmic and repeated pressing of the space bar. To coordinate this, I will ask Mark to signal the start of the keyboard applause and then, after a minute has elapsed, its end too.
I had the privilege of meeting fecklessmiser once. It was a brief encounter in a station cafe in Richmond. He had a coffee and a fruit enhanced flapjack and I had a "normal" flapjack and americano coffee. My wife plumped for a rather generous slice of carrot cake and the same coffee as me. We have similar tastes in that respect.
I got the impression that our old friend was anything but feckless though. He seemed careful and thoughtful in all he did. Almost robotic in a sense, as if he'd been programmed to behave in a certain way. The miser part of his moniker was entirely accurate, though.
After about twenty minutes of affable badinage, he suddenly pretended he'd received an urgent text, producing a mobile phone from his inside pocket. My wife and I heard no incoming notification jingle on his phone, but he claimed a domestic emergency had broken out. Something about a pair of curs suddenly taking ill at home. He garbled his apologies and left.
He left us with a bill in the region of £15, which we found a bit steep, to be honest. We noted, with not an insignificant amount of irony, that his coffee and customised flapjack were the two most expensive items on the bill too.
Despite this, I'll miss his periodic postings and I bear no grudges towards him at all. I hope life brings him everything he both desires and deserves.
Farewell my friend.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 7, 2023 18:50:06 GMT
I share the sentiment behind " A disaster for the world". But its sobering to think that great chunks of it will not give a toss , being in the Russian sphere of influence-S. America/Africa/India/chunks of Asia. On NATO I agree that it wouldn't happen. I dont think there is the capacity to replace USA-let alone the willingness. Doesn't bear thinking about does it ? So lets hope the octenegarian president can stay on his feet more often. Do you think Starmer is capable of dealing with a world like that ?. I cant decide whether he is indecisive or pragmatic. I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses. "I wouldn't fancy finding out as NATO collapses" - I don't think anyone would. It would be the biggest security challenge for Europe since 1945. It's just as possible though that Trump turns into a massive Ukraine hawk the second he assumes office, especially if Ukraine are doing well at that point and he wants to bask in that success. He was the only president to (however briefly) attack Syrian government forces who are of course actively supported by the Russians. I think it is possible, even likely, that a Trump attempt to pull out of NATO might be one of the few things that could break apart the Republican Party - the whole 'national security hawk' and 'American empire' elements would go mad. I could see them walking out and voting with the Democrats over that, leaving Trump just with the nativist element. As evidence I offer what happened to DeSantis when he made some anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia statements early in his campaign. There was a pile on from various Republican senators and congressmen and he had to do a hasty u-turn. And that was only Ukraine - leaving NATO would be a much bigger deal. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/23/ron-desantis-ukraine-war-russia-territorial-disputeOf course a US President asking allies to shoulder a larger part of the burden enjoys popular bi-partisan support in the USA and, to be honest, is not unfair. The western world has done very well out of getting the US to pay for its defence.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Aug 7, 2023 18:52:59 GMT
While I agree that Danny somewhat exaggerates the risk of a party, with a large majority of MPs, removing all opposition MPs, one of the problems with the constitutional arrangements that the UK puts in place from time to time, that they can end up being abused. An example would be the cross-party choice of Unionist MPs in the 19th century to counter the tactics of the Irish Nationalists by transferring effective control of Commons business from MPs to the Government. The consequence has been that, over time, governments have centralised power in Downing St - not what was originally intended. In the USA, Republicans and Democrats, not infrequently, co-operate at county, state and congressional level, to ensure that no 3rd party can intrude on their duopoly of power. Only one of the 3 conditions for ordering a recall petition is capable of misuse by the dominant party/parties - but one is enough. 1. Conviction in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted. Note – a sentence over 12 months in jail automatically disqualifies someone from being an MP; 2. Convicted of an offence under section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009 (making false or misleading Parliamentary allowances claims). Note – the sentence does not have to be custodial for this condition. 3. Suspension from the House following report and recommended sanction from the Committee on Standards for a specified period (at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified)Following this through, it is likely a weak threat against innocent opposition MPs because the next step is a recall petition in the constituency, which will likely resent having its MP mucked about for no good reason, and even if that hurdle is passed there is then a by-election with every reason to assume the sitting MP would be returned. However, it might make a very useful disciplinary threat against your own backbenchers (assuming the government doesn't mind losing a by-election) - i.e. "toe the line or we won't just remove the whip or expel you but also make sure you won't remain an MP for long." With a media which is friendly to the government (especially the BBC under state control), which saintly MP won't have some heinous fault that can be constantly highlighted?
However, you have usefully identified another abuse of the system which government can use to reinforce its total control - Starmer may find that very useful, if the Labour candidate in R&WH actually did choose to defy the party whip if elected at a GE.
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Danny
Member
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:09:27 GMT
sheviiAgree - polls have really been much the same for many months. The last significant movement was the Conservatives' partial recovery in the early months of Sunak's time as PM, last Autumn. The one thing which has perhaps happened is con drawing attention to lacklustre labour. Given there is little scope for a financial giveaway before the next election, and any such might backfire if it is seen as imprudent, I wonder what a party might do to get re-elected? Perhaps promise to get on with the green revolution, as con seem to be doing? Make noises about getting rid of refugees, as con seem to be doing. The thing about all pre election promises is they can't be made too quickly, otherwise people might wonder why they werent simply carried out in the more than a year before the next election? Which might lead one to wonder if an election is expected rather sooner than this? Re your coleected swings, I noticed the largets to lab was amongst leavers. I really really do not think this is because labour has promised to leave the outcome of brexit pretty much as con made it.
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Post by alec on Aug 7, 2023 19:20:00 GMT
domjg - "..Alec, you're like a good news angel when it comes to Ukraine. If only they had air support." Technical Quibble - angels don't need air support. @crofty - adjudicate please.
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Danny
Member
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Post by Danny on Aug 7, 2023 19:21:17 GMT
(c) that things are illegal is a sign that society disproves of those things and wants to see them prevented and punished if they happen I think you go a step too far there. Laws are often used to impose standards of behaviour on people who do not agree with them. For example, criminalisation of homosexuality in the UK. Had you spoken to people in 1960 and then 1990, you would have received very different polling answers about their views on this. And yet obviously there was no deep rooted detestation of homosexuality, more a fear to admit to either practicing, wanting to practice, or not caring at all. Had ther really been clear detestation, abolishing the legal bans would never have changed public opinion. So one must conclude the whole nation was behaving under duress in giving lip service to them. One wonders to what extent the same might be true of anti drugs laws. On which topic, isnt if funny how magic mushrooms have just been heralded as a wonder drug to cure depression!
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