16-JUL 2023 : LAB: 46% / CON: 26% / LDEM: 11% / REF: 6%

[neilj]

somerjohn

Agree, my own view is that it will take a longish time. In the medium term an EFTA type (and I did say type) relationship would be an intermediary/compromise step
It won't be as good as full membership, but substantially better than our current situation

[Deleted]

crossbat11

“ You may be right, and there are some real shining lights still posting”

Thanks for that Battmeister, molto apreciado senor. I’ve decided to return after my sabbatical, brighten up the site and enjoy imagining people saying “I see the ever popular Crofty is back.”

Andy was in Barnard Castle yesterday by the way.

The E.P.C.

[shevii]

Aug 7, 2023 11:22:56 GMT neilj said:

England women's football team through to the next round
Quite fortunate, Nigeria were the better team for most of the match
Lauren James had been outstanding upto now, but lost her temper and stood on another's player's back and deservedly got a red
But they stayed in the game with just ten players to win on penalties
They will need to play better in the next game

To my shame I woke up late and missed the first 30 minutes which was perhaps where Nigeria must have been the much better team judging by the comments. In all honesty though the 90 minutes I did watch I didn't really think there was much in it, so coming in late gave me a different perspective. Looking at the highlights the actual chances were not many for either side and pretty even at that. It was only really that Nigerian double chance in the first half, together with presumably more of the pressure, that made it seem they were more dominant.

Don't get me wrong Nigeria played well and maybe deserved better but if you're not creating chances (even if you miss them) then just being a bit better is no reason to feel hard done by, and England dug in well against a good team.

[athena]

As we seem to have been reduced to discussing football as an alternative to picking at old political sores and the fecklessmiser has unveiled a new moniker I'd like to put in a plea for everyone to choose an image/avatar to replace the hairless humanoid with the bulging cortex. I find the images help me to see the flow of discussion at a glance and pick out posters I usually find interesting.

[Rafwan]

Crofty used to have a really nice one of him and his banjo. Can we have that one back, please?

[pjw1961]

Aug 6, 2023 23:05:34 GMT mercian said:

Aug 6, 2023 22:58:53 GMT Mr Poppy said:

There is a law against 'Forced Marriages' but you'd be incredibly naive to think they don't happen. 

www.gov.uk/stop-forced-marriage

A study has revealed for the first time that the crime of forced marriage remains rife in England and Wales.
www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2023/may/forced-marriage-research.html

The study highlights:

- "People with disabilities and lesbian, gay, bisexual, Trans, queer+ (LGBTQ+) were especially vulnerable to forced marriage"
- "While it is commonly believed that forced marriages occur in South Asian or Middle Eastern diaspora communities, they were also found to occur in Irish, Nigerian and Somali communities, among others"

Having a law doesn't mean much if the practice is still ongoing - perhaps often due to the 'fear' of the Police being accused of being racists if they get involved?

It is not racist to ensure the law of the land is upheld. If UK is viewed as too 'liberal' by some people then they don't have to live here (and it is not racist to point that fact out). We change the law in other countries but people in UK should live by UK laws.

Spot on.

To make my point crystal clear: 
(a) No one is pretending bad things don't happen in society
(b) No one is pretending that making things illegal is guaranteed to prevent bad things happening
However,
(c) that things are illegal is a sign that society disproves of those things and wants to see them prevented and punished if they happen

Therefore the fact that forced marriage, FGM and so called honour killings are illegal is clear indication that these practices are not approved of or tolerated by UK society,. There is no band of mythical woke liberals out there who are tolerating abhorrent practices, any more that we would tolerate the white men who massacre their families from time to time before killing themselves (we had one of those in Braintree a few years back). 
 

[EmCat]

Aug 7, 2023 11:31:33 GMT James E said:

I occasionally look into the detail of cross-breaks,

2016 Remain
Lab 56% (+7)
Con 13% (-6)

2016 Leave
Lab 26% (+12)
Con 42% (-32)

Is the number of people who either didn't vote in 2016, or were unable to vote then, now significant enough that they could get their own cross-break?

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2023 12:47:47 GMT athena said:

As we seem to have been reduced to discussing football as an alternative to picking at old political sores and the fecklessmiser has unveiled a new moniker I'd like to put in a plea for everyone to choose an image/avatar to replace the hairless humanoid with the bulging cortex. I find the images help me to see the flow of discussion at a glance and pick out posters I usually find interesting.

Who the fuck is “fecklessmiser”?!?!? Sounds like a daft name. I’ve been away for a while working on some Bach pieces and haven’t really followed the site for a while. Disappointed to see Batty from Brum is back with his tedious drivel (no offence Batty. )

I will see if I can remember how to add a photo - seem to recall I posted one of a really nice looking bloke  with a small, Torres-style guitar, playing very beautifully in the garden.

The EPC.

[pjw1961]

Aug 7, 2023 6:49:05 GMT Danny said:

Aug 6, 2023 17:57:12 GMT steve said:

They used to lock wayward mps up in the clock tower but a ten day suspension from parliament triggering a recall petition would do the job and it's envisaged that if she doesn't depart under her own power soon that's precisely what will happen..

Do people realise just how dangerous all this removal of MPs from parliament is for democracy?

We have created a mechanism whereby a government can dismiss any opposition MP it choses by first suspending them from parliament for ten days, and then holding a recall petition. That only needs 10% or something to vote for a new election and there will be one. No MP has a greater than 90% majority, so its inevitable these petitions will succeed. Should Sunak decide he doesnt like Starmer, he could throw him out of parliament tomorrow.

Does no one see how close this brings us to dictatorship?

Why would the public agree to recall an MP who was clearly blameless and subject to unjust persecution?

[Dave]

Aug 7, 2023 12:51:26 GMT Rafwan said:

Crofty used to have a really nice one of him and his banjo. Can we have that one back, please?

I thought it was a ukelele.

I hope Steve returns soon - Steve - if you read this - then return soon 🙂

On racists. All of them are wrong. Many are nasty with it and genuinely horrible b******s. Others are more oblivious to their own racism and unwitting in it. I know many who are (otherwise) decent people and would be hugely offended if you called them racist. But regardless of ill intent or basic ignorance they remain racist. We have one on this site. He can make me chuckle at times (not with the racist crap obviously) and he can be very self-depreciating which is a quality I really like in him. But there is no doubt that whether he means it or not (and as someone who wants people to be nice) it’s still racist.

Honestly, I thought that was beyond doubt. It’s a shame if after we lost a couple of good posters in similar circumstances a few months back we were to lose another in Steve, because of the (inadvertent? but crass) actions of the same poster who the others who walked away took issue with.

[neilj]

Aug 7, 2023 13:00:43 GMT pjw1961 said:

Aug 7, 2023 6:49:05 GMT Danny said:

Do people realise just how dangerous all this removal of MPs from parliament is for democracy?

We have created a mechanism whereby a government can dismiss any opposition MP it choses by first suspending them from parliament for ten days, and then holding a recall petition. That only needs 10% or something to vote for a new election and there will be one. No MP has a greater than 90% majority, so its inevitable these petitions will succeed. Should Sunak decide he doesnt like Starmer, he could throw him out of parliament tomorrow.

Does no one see how close this brings us to dictatorship?

Why would the public agree to recall an MP who was clearly blameless and subject to unjust persecution?

Even more importantly if there was a subsequent by-election the blameless opposition incumbent would likely win by an even bigger majority and embarrass the Government

[pjw1961]

Aug 6, 2023 23:10:30 GMT mercian said:

Aug 6, 2023 23:05:25 GMT Rafwan said:

I am deeply puzzled. Have some sanctions been taken against you? Is it “bye” in the sense of “I may be some time”? Wtf is going on? It is clear mercian feels new life has been breathed into his racist views. It is a great shame.

I refer you to my earlier post about being called a racist. Isn't it racist that certain groups aren't allowed to be criticised because of their race? 

If you are specific enough, as previously explained. It is racist to suggest that entire large diverse groups, e.g, "immigrants", "muslims" or, for that matter, "white people" endorse a specific viewpoint. 

[pjw1961]

Aug 7, 2023 12:47:47 GMT athena said:

As we seem to have been reduced to discussing football as an alternative to picking at old political sores and the fecklessmiser has unveiled a new moniker I'd like to put in a plea for everyone to choose an image/avatar to replace the hairless humanoid with the bulging cortex. I find the images help me to see the flow of discussion at a glance and pick out posters I usually find interesting.

IMO discussions of billionaire kickball should be banned during the cricket season. On that point I am an ideological extremist

[Rafwan]

Dave

Actually, wasn’t it a comb and a sheet of Izal? Blimey, must have been from a long time ago!!

[moby]

The sensible balanced approach:-
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-rishi-sunaks-climate-failure-is-a-gift-to-putin-rfhhv6gxp

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/06/starmer-says-sunaks-lack-of-investment-in-wind-power-is-gift-to-putin#:~:text=Keir%20Starmer-,Starmer%20says%20Sunak's%20lack%20of%20investment,power%20is%20'gift%20to%20Putin'&text=Keir%20Starmer%20has%20condemned%20the,a%20%E2%80%9Cgift%20to%20Putin%E2%80%9D.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/07/labours-shared-values-with-democrats-will-aid-uk-us-trade-deals-says-shadow-minister

[Dave]

Aug 7, 2023 14:04:05 GMT Rafwan said:

Dave

Actually, wasn’t it a comb and a sheet of Izal? Blimey, must have been from a long time ago!!

I don’t remember it being that sophisticated. Now that Paul is finally back on the site - I put that down to the petition I started - maybe he can enlighten us.

[Deleted]

Pressure grows on Nadine Dorries to do the decent thing. 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66427982

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2023 14:07:34 GMT moby said:

The sensible balanced approach:-
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-rishi-sunaks-climate-failure-is-a-gift-to-putin-rfhhv6gxp

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/06/starmer-says-sunaks-lack-of-investment-in-wind-power-is-gift-to-putin#:~:text=Keir%20Starmer-,Starmer%20says%20Sunak's%20lack%20of%20investment,power%20is%20'gift%20to%20Putin'&text=Keir%20Starmer%20has%20condemned%20the,a%20%E2%80%9Cgift%20to%20Putin%E2%80%9D.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/07/labours-shared-values-with-democrats-will-aid-uk-us-trade-deals-says-shadow-minister

All interesting articles. He has had to respond to Sunak on NS oil-and distance himself from Just Stop Oil.

Its all positioning-or u-turning if you see it that way. He is certainly intent on closing off what few political opportunities Con try to create.

The G article about USA Dems is interesting. But how does Thomas-Symonds know that Dems will be in the White House? I am reading some very disturbing analysis of how TRump can see off this prosecution with a Freedom of Speech defence-and then win the e;ection.

[Deleted]

The end of French colonialism and its currency union in the Sahel seems to be in process :-

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/05/niger-crisis-france-empire-africa-coup-colony

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66406137



Whether ECOWAS invades seems to be the next question :-

www.dw.com/en/niger-junta-closes-airspace-as-ecowas-deadline-expires/a-66455431

Western involvement would bring the prospect of direct conflict with Wagner and/or the emerging Russian sphere of influence there.



Germany seems to be pondering a role in hanging on to European influence there by being not France :-

www.dw.com/en/niger-coup-where-to-now-for-european-diplomacy/a-66449521



What an irony that uranium from Niger may have to be replaced with that from Russia-which isn't embargoed apparently !:-

www.politico.eu/article/niger-coup-spark-concerns-france-uranium-dependency/#:~:text=Pro%20Free%20From-,Niger%20coup%20sparks%20concerns%20about%20French%2C%20EU%20uranium%20dependency,of%20the%20EU's%20uranium%20stock.

Putin has played a blinder in the Sahel-it makes our craven attitude to his sensitivities over Ukraine even more absurd.

[neilj]

Latest YouGov

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention tracker (2-3 Aug)

Con: 25% (no change from 25-26 Jul)
Lab: 47% (+2)
Lib Dem: 10% (=)
Reform UK: 7% (=)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

[James E]

Aug 7, 2023 12:55:41 GMT EmCat said:

Aug 7, 2023 11:31:33 GMT James E said:

I occasionally look into the detail of cross-breaks,

2016 Remain
Lab 56% (+7)
Con 13% (-6)

2016 Leave
Lab 26% (+12)
Con 42% (-32)

Is the number of people who either didn't vote in 2016, or were unable to vote then, now significant enough that they could get their own cross-break?

Conveniently, those who were too young to vote in June 2016 are now exactly those in the youngest age cohort of 18-24 year olds. Over the past 5 YouGovs, they average Lab 63%, Con 11%.

It would be harder to get an accurate figure for those who could have voted in 2016, but didn't. I've seen figures for non-voters at GE2019, and these break heavily for Labour (a little more than the headline voting figures). It can be noted that the combined swing of those who voted in the referendum is around 14%, as opposed to 16% in YG's overall averaged figures for the past 2 months. 

[oldnat]

Aug 7, 2023 13:14:46 GMT neilj said:

Aug 7, 2023 13:00:43 GMT pjw1961 said:

Why would the public agree to recall an MP who was clearly blameless and subject to unjust persecution?

Even more importantly if there was a subsequent by-election the blameless opposition incumbent would likely win by an even bigger majority and embarrass the Government

While I agree that Danny somewhat exaggerates the risk of a party, with a large majority of MPs, removing all opposition MPs, one of the problems with the constitutional arrangements that the UK puts in place from time to time, that they can end up being abused.

An example would be the cross-party choice of Unionist MPs in the 19th century to counter the tactics of the Irish Nationalists by transferring effective control of Commons business from MPs to the Government. The consequence has been that, over time, governments have centralised power in Downing St - not what was originally intended.

In the USA, Republicans and Democrats, not infrequently, co-operate at county, state and congressional level, to ensure that no 3rd party can intrude on their duopoly of power.

Only one of the 3 conditions for ordering a recall petition is capable of misuse by the dominant party/parties - but one is enough.

1. Conviction in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted. Note – a sentence over 12 months in jail automatically disqualifies someone from being an MP;
2. Convicted of an offence under section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009 (making false or misleading Parliamentary allowances claims). Note – the sentence does not have to be custodial for this condition.
3. Suspension from the House following report and recommended sanction from the Committee on Standards for a specified period (at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified)

[Deleted]

ECOWAS still thinking about it :-

ecowas.int/ecowas-heads-of-state-to-hold-another-extraordinary-summit-on-the-political-situation-in-the-republic-of-niger/

www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/6/niger-coup-divisions-as-ecowas-military-threat-fails-to-play-out

[moby]

Aug 7, 2023 14:28:44 GMT colin said:

Aug 7, 2023 14:07:34 GMT moby said:

The sensible balanced approach:-
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-rishi-sunaks-climate-failure-is-a-gift-to-putin-rfhhv6gxp

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/06/starmer-says-sunaks-lack-of-investment-in-wind-power-is-gift-to-putin#:~:text=Keir%20Starmer-,Starmer%20says%20Sunak's%20lack%20of%20investment,power%20is%20'gift%20to%20Putin'&text=Keir%20Starmer%20has%20condemned%20the,a%20%E2%80%9Cgift%20to%20Putin%E2%80%9D.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/07/labours-shared-values-with-democrats-will-aid-uk-us-trade-deals-says-shadow-minister

All interesting articles. He has had to respond to Sunak on NS oil-and distance himself from Just Stop Oil.

Its all positioning-or u-turning if you see it that way. He is certainly intent on closing off what few political opportunities Con try to create.

The G article about USA Dems is interesting. But how does Thomas-Symonds know that Dems will be in the White House? I am reading some very disturbing analysis of how TRump can see off this prosecution with a Freedom of Speech defence-and then win the e;ection.

Fair points. I think his course is set. He is positioning Labour in such a way that he will receive criticism no matter what he does. Thats OK though. Its not visionary or exciting but the mood is fractious and cynical about everything it seems to me and he really has no choice if he wants to win. Re. Trump - who knows how the indictments will pan out but put it this way, if Trump wins we'll have a lot more to worry about than our positioning; the whole NATO strategy towards Ukraine for starters. Many serious commentators are now questioning the viability of the union.

[Mr Poppy]

YG's latest:

[Mr Poppy]

Article mentions the data lag and that it will take quite a while to offset the period of -ve real wage growth but there will be light at the end of the tunnel...

Cost of living crisis may already be ending as wages catch up to inflation, economists say
www.standard.co.uk/business/cost-of-living-crisis-ending-economists-wages-inflation-cpi-price-rises-real-growth-economics-b1099122.html

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2023 15:31:09 GMT moby said:

Aug 7, 2023 14:28:44 GMT colin said:

Fair points. I think his course is set. He is positioning Labour in such a way that he will receive criticism no matter what he does. Thats OK though. Its not visionary or exciting but the mood is fractious and cynical about everything it seems to me and he really has no choice if he wants to win. Re. Trump - who knows how the indictments will pan out but put it this way, if Trump wins we'll have a lot more to worry about than our positioning; the whole NATO strategy towards Ukraine for starters. Many serious commentators are now questioning the viability of the union.

Agreed.

I think Time For A Change will be the overwhelming sentiment come the day. Starmer just needs to stay out of trouble.


Yes- A Trump win will be a complete and utter disaster for Europe.

[moby]

Aug 7, 2023 15:02:07 GMT colin said:

Putin has played a blinder in the Sahel-it makes our craven attitude to his sensitivities over Ukraine even more absurd.

.....or he has the 'convenience' of not having to worry about democratic scrutiny or accountability. 

[domjg]

Aug 7, 2023 15:34:40 GMT colin said:

Aug 7, 2023 15:31:09 GMT moby said:

Fair points. I think his course is set. He is positioning Labour in such a way that he will receive criticism no matter what he does. Thats OK though. Its not visionary or exciting but the mood is fractious and cynical about everything it seems to me and he really has no choice if he wants to win. Re. Trump - who knows how the indictments will pan out but put it this way, if Trump wins we'll have a lot more to worry about than our positioning; the whole NATO strategy towards Ukraine for starters. Many serious commentators are now questioning the viability of the union.

Agreed.

I think Time For A Change will be the overwhelming sentiment come the day. Starmer just needs to stay out of trouble.


Yes- A Trump win will be a complete and utter disaster for Europe.

"A Trump win will be a complete and utter disaster for Europe" - A disaster for the world. I don't think it will happen but if he wins the nomination we'll all be living in a world of stress until after polling day. 

I'd like to think that if he did win Europe collectively (maybe including Canada, Australia and possibly even Japan) would have the wherewithal to move to a war economy and focus on arms production and military recruitment and training. Looking at it from a historical perspective there should be no reason why European NATO countries plus others with their vastly larger collective population, wealth, resources and stability should not ourselves be able to pick up the slack relatively easily and deal with Russia. Of course it wouldn't happen though.. 

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 7, 2023 14:28:44 GMT colin said:

Aug 7, 2023 14:07:34 GMT moby said:

The sensible balanced approach:-
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-rishi-sunaks-climate-failure-is-a-gift-to-putin-rfhhv6gxp

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/06/starmer-says-sunaks-lack-of-investment-in-wind-power-is-gift-to-putin#:~:text=Keir%20Starmer-,Starmer%20says%20Sunak's%20lack%20of%20investment,power%20is%20'gift%20to%20Putin'&text=Keir%20Starmer%20has%20condemned%20the,a%20%E2%80%9Cgift%20to%20Putin%E2%80%9D.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/07/labours-shared-values-with-democrats-will-aid-uk-us-trade-deals-says-shadow-minister

1. All interesting articles. He has had to respond to Sunak on NS oil-and distance himself from Just Stop Oil.

Its all positioning-or u-turning if you see it that way. He is certainly intent on closing off what few political opportunities Con try to create.

2. The G article about USA Dems is interesting. But how does Thomas-Symonds know that Dems will be in the White House? I am reading some very disturbing analysis of how TRump can see off this prosecution with a Freedom of Speech defence-and then win the e;ection.

1. The second article states: "Starmer also distanced himself from Just Stop Oil by criticising its call to immediately cease drilling for oil and gas, saying a Labour government would not revoke any existing licences and he would only block new oil and gas developments in the North Sea"
(and given the amount of licenses we'll get before GE'24 then there won't be any need for licenses post GE'24)

2. Hhhhmm... I seem to remember a lot of people thought a UK-US trade deal would be easy. A bit like getting France to agree to a returns policy on immigration perhaps? We'll see but if US want to start doing trade deals again then CPTPP might be higher on their list. Various mini deals and progress on services, etc could be 'glorified' as trade deals though. 

From the article: "Thomas-Symonds did not go into detail about what Labour could offer beyond what the Conservative government has in order to complete a digital trade deal...a digital trade deal could pave the way to a series of other sector-specific deals"

Anyway, if that is a LAB 'tilt' towards US then fine by me