pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 13, 2022 9:23:24 GMT
it's difficult to see how Putin sustains his criminality. I'm reminded of a joke. Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon Bonaparte suddenly find themselves transported to see the Victory day parade in Moscow. Alexander sees the mass of troops marching act, and says "With an army like this, I could have conquered the world!" Caesar sees the tanks, and says "With chariots like these, the Roman Empire would never have fallen!" Napoleon looks up from his copy of Pravda and says "If I'd had newspapers like these, no one would ever have heard of Waterloo" In other words, he sustains his rule by deliberately not informing the population what is actually going on. History show the Duma can keep this tactic up for decades. I can't resist pointing out that Napoleon did have newspapers like that. In particular the regularly issued "Bulletins" of the Grande Armee led to a French saying "mentir comme un Bulletin" ("to lie like a Bulletin"). In fact Napoleon was one of the masters of propaganda. One of his more dubious gifts to the world was to invent the first modern style 'honours' system, with the Legion D'Honneur ("You call these baubles, well, it is with baubles that men are led"). I suppose if there is a lesson for Putin it is that disasters on the scale of the 1812 retreat from Moscow or the battle of Waterloo couldn't be hidden forever. As the death toll in Ukraine mounts people will notice. The question is how long they can be persuaded it is worth it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2022 9:31:38 GMT
Friday the thirteenth.  |
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Post by hireton on May 13, 2022 9:38:40 GMT
This is an example of the analysis of the ONS longitudinal data to look at social mobility into Category 1 higher professional, managerial and administrative jobs links between and geographical mobility: blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/social-mobility-at-the-top/A key finding is that in this example geographical mobility seems to reinforce social advantage rather than being a means of social mobility: "A large majority of people with higher managerial or professional occupations, whose parents already held such privileged jobs, have moved long-distance at least once: a large majority of those who were long-range socially mobile into elite occupations have never done so. Therefore, geographic mobility is associated with the reproduction of social class advantage, instead of a common feature for those who have achieved upward social mobility." |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 13, 2022 9:38:59 GMT
Very interesting and informative, thanks Danny and especially so as you resisted the temptation to mention that you believe Russia was deliberately encouraged to attack  My point was more about how this might end than how it began. However, if you were running Ukraine then you must have expected Russia to invade sooner or later, and would do everything you could to create long term safety for your country. Finland seems to be the model here - they militarily defeated Russia sufficiently well that they ensured their freedom from further invasions. And now it looks after a certain time they get NATO membership too. Ukraine needed a decisive win against Russia to ensure its long term security. Before you can win, a war must begin. Best if the other side starts it. Whatever your planning, you want your opponent to under estimate your capability. But especially if you want them to invade and be surprised. Ukraine knew approximately it had to take on the whole Russian army. With help from US, etc, it could have got a good idea exactly what that was. We dont know how good Ukrainian troops really were, and plainly Russia didnt. Broadly, you would expect Russia to attack on all fronts possible, so you needed a dispersed defence and plans for all likely key targets. You had to absorb that shock, see exactly where it was, hold, and then start mopping up the easiest incursions first. That all seems to have gone as well as you could hope. Attacks on civilians were to be expected, and seem to have been managed quite well - considering where most intense Russia has simply preferred to flatten cities and render them uninhabitable. Russians do not want civilians remaining in any areas they hold. Dead or fled, doesnt matter. Stage two would be pushing back from invaded territory. Stage three recovering past losses in Crimea, etc. If Ukraine believes people living in Crimea really want to be Russian, they might not bother, but I suspect the locals are not very happy by now with Russian rule. Along the way Ukraine has comprehensively won the propaganda battle, and is now receiving open and massive military assistance in equipment, intelligence and perhaps to some extent in people, at least in back room situations including intelligence and training. Anything which can be done remotely or inside a friendly neighbour. It has placed the west decisively on it side for the future, just as per Finland. This has been brilliantly managed, so either Ukraine is world leader in pretty much every aspect of winning a war starting as the underdog, or it has always had help with everything, every step of the way. If Putin had been given a dossier detailing every way in which ukraine was ready, there would have been no invasion. So it was easy to prevent this invasion, just by leaking that information. But doing it that way, Russia would never be convinced. Having an actual war in which Russia is comprehensively defeated cements the reality of the situation rather than the theory of the situation. And incidentally disarms Russia to a major extent reducing its ability to intervene anywhere else too. Not so nice to have so much destruction within Ukraine, but this is the country which had to manage Chernobyl. There had to be a decisive encounter to ensure future security. Ukraine had to prove it was worthy of NATO membeship eventually. The cost of EU membership for them is rather more than the simple few billion we had to pay in annual fees. They had to prove they would be an asset, not a drain, in confrontations with Russia. For the US, this has all contributed to its long term goal of boosting European defence spending. Added a member or two to NATO, brought Ukraine closer, and pushed Russia back to its borders (well, we shall see). Very much worth doing. But none of that was possible if russia was dissuaded from invading. We might speculate whether the US was hoping they would invade last year and was already ready then too. In the worst case outcome, Russia might conquer all Ukraine, but then would have the impossible task of holding it, the endless drain of an occupation army. All the bonuses of shocking NATO into greater military buildup would still apply. A really good long term investment whatever outome. You bet they wanted Russia to invade. |
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Post by shevii on May 13, 2022 9:44:17 GMT
The last three pollsters with regular polls have all shown a slight uptick in Green vote and a slight downtick in Lab
Yougov Green +2
Techne Green +1
R&W Green +2
(Less regular Comres though was Green -1 but, rightly or wrongly, Comres always have the lowest Green vote by some distance)
These are small figures obviously and could just be MOE stuff but I do wonder (as I wondered with that Yougov) whether there might be an element of respondents putting down who they voted for in the locals rather than thinking about next General Election and national picture? This also takes into account turnout in the locals so perhaps 1/3rd of respondents influenced by their vote?
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Post by hireton on May 13, 2022 9:44:58 GMT
Latest YouGov Westminster VI:
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 9:46:16 GMT
Jacob Rees Mogg
“We need to look at whether these rules were right in the first place in case we have a pandemic again because I think they were too restrictive.”
Obviously preventing piss up karaoke events in number 10 was an egregious interference in personal choice.
Utter prick
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Post by jimjam on May 13, 2022 9:54:44 GMT
Thanks Neil,
The 4 polls since the Local Elections have all shown a slight narrowing of the Labour lead, well 3 of them have with YG narrowing 5%.
That YG could either just be random variation within moe; or, as has been identified, them being more sensitive to ephemera.
Either way my notion of a Tory drop in polls after the locals, as an initial drift away from perceived losers tends to occur, has not materialised.
It is Labour support in these polls dropping that has led to the narrowing as Tory support has not risen in any of the 4 except the YG and only then by 2%.
Beergate maybe or Greens and LDs picking up as people are reminded of them; or a combination as causation is difficult to assign.
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Post by jimjam on May 13, 2022 9:56:54 GMT
Shevii, crossed posts, we thinking same thing I believe.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2022 10:20:49 GMT
Hunt warming up. The Minister for Murdoch? How quickly one forgets. |
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Post by Mark on May 13, 2022 10:39:08 GMT
*** New polling thread alert ***
Long overdue, I know....my bad...but, it's up now...
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Post by wb61 on May 13, 2022 10:55:26 GMT
I am surprised at the stability of the polls in the circumstances and wondered whether what we have seen in cross-over last November will be a slow leak moment such as after 16 September 1992 leading to a sudden dam-burst down into the 25/28 level about a year later. Although Labour currently hovers around the 39/40 mark, if I recollect polls remained stubbornly around the 30 to 34 mark for the Conservatives for about a year after Black Wednesday with Labour in the lower 40's only reaching the higher figures again about a year later.
Thoughts (or more accurate analysis) anyone?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 13, 2022 12:08:21 GMT
Interesting "Beergate seems to have had no negative impact on Keir Starmer's reputation" 1)Bit early for recent events to sink in 2)Actually this isnt a new story and not much has been added 3)since its con pushing it, they hardly have a reputation of telling the truth. 4) Starmer seems fairly confident of his position. I expect people are reserving judgement. 5) Its one incident while campaigning, not regular parties at home.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 13, 2022 12:18:29 GMT
Hunt warming up.  I can almost hear Kenneth Wolstenholme saying it now. But why didn't he put that Hurst rebound off the crossbar over the line, just to make sure and remove all semblance of doubt?? It would have prevented that Russian linesman becoming so famous too and stopped the Germans moaning ever since. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 13, 2022 12:28:30 GMT
I am surprised at the stability of the polls in the circumstances and wondered whether what we have seen in cross-over last November will be a slow leak moment such as after 16 September 1992 leading to a sudden dam-burst down into the 25/28 level about a year later. Although Labour currently hovers around the 39/40 mark, if I recollect polls remained stubbornly around the 30 to 34 mark for the Conservatives for about a year after Black Wednesday with Labour in the lower 40's only reaching the higher figures again about a year later. Thoughts (or more accurate analysis) anyone?
If you look at 2010en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_electionThe Tory leads start fairly shortly after the '05 election, starts climbing, then Brown gets his bounce after which the credit crunch crises hits and the Tories re-establish a lead up to the next GE - but never fully seals the deal with the electorate, despite the unpopularity of Brown and his govt, and support of most of the media for the Tories.
My sense is currently the situation is similar to 2010. Its hard to see how things could get much worse, but Labour have not convinced the electorate sufficiently to give them a mandate. Prior to '15, obvs its position in Scotland meant it's chances of obtaining an OM much higher. Given the current political reality in Scotland, the indication in the polls (which I am assuming are more accurate than in previous periods) is that Labour are way short of lead over the Conservatives it needs for an OM. While it may be fair to assume come a GE you can take a couple of % points from LD and Green to Lab this will not be sufficient to get them the required margin between themselves and the Tories.
In '97, Blair also benefited from the assumption held by everyone that he would win, and had momentum/vibe etc - currently its a lot harder for Labour generate that sense of being the government in waiting. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 13, 2022 19:25:07 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 16, 2022 11:23:31 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Upper-middle-class children become upper-middle-class adults." I know that quote wasn't from you, but much of what you posted rings true to me. It's one of those absurdities in life that I always feel whenever I hear people talking about 'increasing social mobility'. The unspoken rule is always that this means more people moving up, whatever that means. But, in terms of relative performance, at least, if some are going up, some must be going down. Increased social mobility ultimately has to mean that some of those upper middle classes who lack the talent or work ethic must slide down the ladder, making way for the better people to climb past them. It's an uncomfortable truism. Yes, this is a real point at issue, not least because one is given to wonder how many of those losing position on the ladder do so because of a lack of ability or application. How many might maintain position by playing the system rather than achieving or contributing more. Quite a few have benefited in recent times through windfall gains. For those where it is achieved through talent and effort, others like Richard Reeves have written that it tends to involve an exhausting regime of continually working and striving to stay there. Another issue, is that even if some don’t lose their place on the ladder, they might still be worse off, because the idea is that more of the middle class will slip into a world of struggling, while only the ten percent or so at the top get the spoils. So even if you’re in the top quartile, you might still wind up struggling. Then some have questioned whether a meritocracy is such a good thing, e.g. Lord Young’s concerns about the rise of the Meritocracy in his book. His book was supposed to be a satire and he was trying to suggest a meritocracy might present problems for the Labour Party; he didn’t seem too chuffed when Blair embraced the idea of meritocracy. www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/comment‘Down with meritocracy Michael Young The man who coined the word four decades ago wishes Tony Blair would stop using it” |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 16, 2022 17:45:08 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Upper-middle-class children become upper-middle-class adults." Then some have questioned whether a meritocracy is such a good thing, e.g. Lord Young’s concerns about the rise of the Meritocracy in his book. His book was supposed to be a satire and he was trying to suggest a meritocracy might present problems for the Labour Party; he didn’t seem too chuffed when Blair embraced the idea of meritocracy. www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/comment‘Down with meritocracy Michael Young The man who coined the word four decades ago wishes Tony Blair would stop using it” I think what Lord Young recognised was that the rise of the meritocracy would leave the working class without the natural leaders they had had before and so created a class of 'left behinds' with no one to lead them who would fall prey to populists (at least that would be my interpretation, although it was a long time ago that I last read it). It isn't "the rise of the meritocracy" that deserves criticism, so much as his other conception: Toby Young. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 16, 2022 17:53:23 GMT
Then some have questioned whether a meritocracy is such a good thing, e.g. Lord Young’s concerns about the rise of the Meritocracy in his book. His book was supposed to be a satire and he was trying to suggest a meritocracy might present problems for the Labour Party; he didn’t seem too chuffed when Blair embraced the idea of meritocracy. www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/comment‘Down with meritocracy Michael Young The man who coined the word four decades ago wishes Tony Blair would stop using it” I think what Lord Young recognised was that the rise of the meritocracy would leave the working class without the natural leaders they had had before and so created a class of 'left behinds' with no one to lead them who would fall prey to populists (at least that would be my interpretation, although it was a long time ago that I last read it). It isn't "the rise of the meritocracy" that deserves criticism, so much as his other conception: Toby Young. Yes the aspect you mention is something I decided to give a bit more info on by quoting a bit more of Young in a subsequent post on the other thread. I don’t think the impact on leaders is the only way he thinks it holds them back, the way education is done, favouring particular attributes and values also screens people out from opportunities. As I quoted the other day, Piketty argues that education is becoming a key factor in class terms, increasingly determining how people vote, then you have the comments about education in the article Crossbat linked to, where Sandel argues “Credentialism has become the last acceptable prejudice.” (I will repost this on the new thread). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 17:39:02 GMT
Knew there was something worth mentioning. Ukraine seems to have staged a war crime trial, to excellent propaganda effect. 21 year old soldier looking too young to have been sent to war. Another soldier told him to do it. Looks terrified and sorry. Brilliant imagery.
Meanwhile Russia is quite likely torturing soldiers surrendered from Mariupol.
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