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Post by somerjohn on May 12, 2022 10:17:49 GMT
Hireton: "UK economy contracted by 0.1% in March and the February GDP figure was revised downwards from 0.1% growth to 0%.
The first quarter figure of +0.8% is reasonable amongst G7 economies but what appears to be a downward trajectory will be deeply worrying for the Tories."
You can add to that the worst-ever quarterly trade figures. Time was, such things could swing elections (a goods trade deficit of £31 million is reckoned to have cost Wilson the 1970 election). Today's appalling figures seem to have gone unreported. Here's what the ONS said today:
The total trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £14.9 billion to £25.2 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022, reaching the largest deficit since records began in 1997.
We also heard that business investment remains almost 10% below pre-pandemic levels, despite Sunak's super deduction (or whatever he calls it) tax inducement.
All those post-brexit economic opportunities and benefits seem to be taking their time to arrive, don't they?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 12, 2022 10:21:18 GMT
That last para. LLL Rather obtuse. You are Laura Kuenssberg and I claim my free Brillo pad.
The west's strategy looks very disjointed, reactive and most commentary is along the lines of 'Russia/Putin' bad 'Ukraine/Zelensky' good. The West's long term goals are not clear and we run the risk of making the same mistakes we made at the start of the century.Playful surely, not rude. Though I admit mentioning the Great One from the north was a bit mean. Obtuse endings are La K's speciality, leaving a question hovering, rather than tempting fate by suggesting an answer. Obviously the West's response is reactive, responses usually are. Disjointed in that it takes time to whip all in line, well its bound to. I mean we're talking dozens of individual countries, governments, political systems, whereas Russia has just the one, headed by an autocrat. The West has no long term goals beyond assisting Ukraine in repelling Russian advances. Declaration of any more pernicious objectives risk greater escalation and would play to the Russian psyche of victimhood. |
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Post by johntel on May 12, 2022 11:10:18 GMT
Longer term the question we should be asking is that will this end if Putin is removed from the equation? Is there more of a structural element to this conflict, relating to aspects of the Russian state, history, culture, politics, public opinion and outlook or is this being driven by the agency of one individual? the answer to this should help define what is the West's strategy and objective in regards to Russia - if we are not clear on this our ability to engage and participate in a longer conflict (however it may look) will be limited as ultimately proved in Afghanistan.
We won't see any more remotely open elections in Russia so he won't be removed by democratic means. While a vast swathe of poor middle-Russia supports him I think there are 3 groups that want him gone - 1) the educated and affluent middle classes in cities like Moscow and St Petersburg 2) the independent-minded remoter regions such as Khabarovsk and Vladivostok, especially as most of the casualties seem to come from here and 3) disillusioned higher-ranking military who can see the war was botched. But how on earth they can come together to depose him I've no idea. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2022 11:11:25 GMT
domjg 'Russia/Putin' bad 'Ukraine/Zelensky' good' - Sometimes things are that simple. If you see a guy being randomly attacked in the street you don't enquire as to his moral standing before helping him and you don't equivocate regarding the motives of his attacker Ah but Machiavelli would not approve of such a Manichaean position. And as far as international relations are concerned its never that simple - whatever actions, positions etc we take will have consequences both in the short and long term. Is our objective the survival of Ukraine, a return of its lost territory, a cessation of the fighting, Russian regime change, etc etc We committed to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq based on a vague and ill-defined war on terror supported by moral outrage of the attacks on the twin towers - I just think we need to learn from our mistakes.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 11:15:57 GMT
Just out - www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00126-6/fulltext"Regardless of initial disease severity, COVID-19 survivors had longitudinal improvements in physical and mental health, with most returning to their original work within 2 years [89%, so that means over 1 in 10 couldn't return to normal work after two years]; however, the burden of symptomatic sequelae remained fairly high. COVID-19 survivors had a remarkably lower health status than the general population at 2 years. The study findings indicate that there is an urgent need to explore the pathogenesis of long COVID and develop effective interventions to reduce the risk of long COVID."
My emphasis.
Approximately 100% of the Uk population has by now had covid. So, 'regardless of initial disease severity'....''1 in 10 couldnt return to work after two years'.... means about 5 million people in the Uk are currently chronically sick with covid to the point they cannot work.
Do you not see how ridicuous a claim that is? Can you list the 65 odd MPs who are now incapacitated and cannot attend because of ongoing covid? Or the 100 or so kids from every school who are now permanently off sick? Nope...didnt think so
Sometimes claims need to be looked at using comon sense. If you have quoted that report correctly then obviously it is very wrong. But my guess is it was a study of an especially vulnerable group who therefore got especially sick. If its the one you posted before then it was about people admitted to a hospital with covid. Oh...an especially selected group whose one thing in common is they are very susceptible to covid. Tells us nothing about the general population risk. That sort of terrible error has bedevilled management of covid from the start. China assumed that when it had 500 people in hospital severely ill with covid, that was the start of a massive epidemic. But what they really saw was the tiny proportion who get very ill. Covid has always presented like that, and nowhere ever under any circumstances has there been mass illness of the scale you suggest.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 12, 2022 11:41:50 GMT
I very much enjoyed watching the flag of the Council of Europe flying in the breeze above the town hall of my local town, Abingdon, Oxfordshire, on May 5th (Council of Europe day). Of course the EU flag is no longer allowed on public buildings and the new mental flag laws that were discussed on here a while back mean permission is now needed for even a private individual to fly it. The Council of Europe flag is fine though.
The flag of the Council of Europe and that of the EU are of course however exactly the same..! Such imbeciles we have lording it over us..
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 12, 2022 11:44:15 GMT
domjg 'Russia/Putin' bad 'Ukraine/Zelensky' good' - Sometimes things are that simple. If you see a guy being randomly attacked in the street you don't enquire as to his moral standing before helping him and you don't equivocate regarding the motives of his attacker Ah but Machiavelli would not approve of such a Manichaean position. And as far as international relations are concerned its never that simple - whatever actions, positions etc we take will have consequences both in the short and long term. Is our objective the survival of Ukraine, a return of its lost territory, a cessation of the fighting, Russian regime change, etc etc We committed to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq based on a vague and ill-defined war on terror supported by moral outrage of the attacks on the twin towers - I just think we need to learn from our mistakes. Me and that Machiavelli never did get on  As Andy I think mentioned there isn't much of a future plan at the moment, just reaction, which can be evaluated and adjusted day by day in such a dynamic situation. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 11:48:40 GMT
Russia hasn't fully mobilised yet (potentially they could field an army of many millions) are not completely isolated and the regime still has domestic support. They may have lost 600 odd tanks - but they allegedly have as many as 12,000 (which while not all battle ready they can be repaired etc and put in the field). There have been signs for a while that they were effectively rationing their use of smart weapons - in case the war dragged on.
"Russia hasn't fully mobilised yet" - I keep reading this. What are they waiting for, the Ukrainians to take Rostov on Don? (joking..). No one says much about what Russians feel about the war. I am frankly incredulous that Russians would believe what Putin says simply because he says it. Having lived in a police state all their lives and witness it collapse and be rebuilt, they will know for certain the state lies. One minute all was fine and western goodies flowing, the next Russia invades Ukraine.
And if he starts calling up reservists and mass conscripting? They will know not only did he start what he told them would be a short war, they will know he is losing it. They are suffering, and they must realise that is because of an optional war he began and could not competently conduct.
And I suggest you watch the Youtube video with regard to the speed and actual usefulness of Russian mobilisation. Which must have been agreed by the Kremlin. They want to prevent any pressure from the public to mobilise and escalate the war. To escalate and still lose is to make matters worse for Putin. He could still win (ie good outcome for him), but if its a draw or loss then he will have to portray it as NATO beat him, not Ukraine, and the smaller the scale of that loss the more of his army he keeps intact. He needs to shrink the war, not enlarge it, and what he has done recently is exactly that, withdrawing. The best retreat is one your opponents think is an attack, so they react wrongly. UK economy contracted by 0.1% in March and the February GDP figure was revised downwards from 0.1% growth to 0%. The first quarter figure of +0.8% is reasonable amongst G7 economies but what appears to be a downward trajectory woll be deeply worrying for the Tories. Why? They took the actions leading to this fall in GDP. Why should they be deeply worried about what they must have expected to be the consequences of their actions? Brexiteers who felt the hit was worth it. Covid lockdowners who said no cost was too great to save a life. Global warming preventers who believe the market will provide replacement energy sources.
Tory supporters and voters will anyway suffer on average least from these policies or a recession because of the social groups they are in. So again, why should the architects of those policies be worrying? Its kinda all fine.
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Post by alec on May 12, 2022 11:53:54 GMT
@danny - "Do you not see how ridicuous a claim that is? Can you list the 65 odd MPs who are now incapacitated and cannot attend because of ongoing covid? Or the 100 or so kids from every school who are now permanently off sick? Nope...didnt think so" You need to read more, think more, and analyse more. What I wrote was that, in this study, over 10% of people couldn't return to "normal" work after two years. That doesn't necessarily mean they can't do sedentary jobs, or that they can't work at all. If you had read up on long covid, you would also know that it is often episodic, so it comes and goes, and this is one of the reasons that it was undercounted initially, as the ONS surveys and the like tended to drop people from the monitoring studies if they reported no symptoms for two consecutive weeks. You also missed the date of the study, which predated vaccinations, which are known to cut the risks of long covid by around 50%. You would also have discovered that long covid can develop up to six months post recovery, and that measurable health impacts, such as development of diabetes, strokes, and brain abnormalities, are being picked up in statistical studies for at least a year post infection. You will, in due course, learn about the impact long covid is having, but by then it will be too late. It's happening already - www.ft.com/content/33444f29-bab1-4655-85b5-c0b1f68d9653Employers are already seeing long covid as an increasingly significant factor in workplace absences, and this is having an impact on the wider economy. |
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Post by alec on May 12, 2022 12:00:27 GMT
bardin1 - yes, I think rivers are significant. Russian mounted a disastrous attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk a couple of days ago. They persist in using floating pontoons, in this case held by small boats as the river is quite large. The Ukrainians destroyed the bridge along with more than 50 tanks and assorted armoured vehicles. Ukrainian sources suggest they are trying to cross again today.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 12:00:57 GMT
Employers are already seeing long covid as an increasingly significant factor in workplace absences, and this is having an impact on the wider economy. Well duh! Its much more credible than that the dog ate my homework! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 12:06:27 GMT
I see the Mayor of London is potentially recommending legalising cannabis. It will be interesting if London police are instructed to turn a blind eye.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 12, 2022 12:06:49 GMT
eor/jimjam
That popular vote share analysis of the local council results in Red Wall constituencies was indeed interesting. Depending on which year you choose to benchmark, Labour's 2022 performance varies from modest to mildly encouraging. There is a case to be made, certainly in one or two of these seats like Dudley and Newcastle under Lyne in the West Midlands, that the party isn't making anything like enough progress to be optimistic about winning a general election, but I think that it's probably worth distinguishing quite specifically between certain seats.
The so called Red Wall is probably too broad and lazy a grouping to be very useful anyway. More appropriately, they are a large number of highly variable former Labour seats that have turned Tory as Labour have subsided from the 350-420 seat range enjoyed for 13 years to where they are now, some 200 odd fewer than the high water mark. That's an awful lot of seats, quite a few of them now SNP in Scotland.
I still prefer the old label of marginals. Due to demography and regional politics, many of these old Labour seats have gone for good, I expect. The Tories or SNP have got gargantuan majorities in some of them now anyway and only swings of historic sizes would regain them.
In terms of winning a parliamentary majority, Labour need to concentrate on seats where only modest swings are required to regain them. There are plenty of those in the so called Red Wall. The key isn't necessarily uniform national swing, it's about doing enough in the marginals in the North and Midlands and then combine that maybe lukewarm recovery with conquest gains in the South of England, Wales and Scotland. They also need the Lib Dems to continue their fightback in the South West too.
The more I look at the electoral map of the UK, the less I feel that the so called Red Wall is necessarily crucial. If it's a marginal seat it is, clearly, but many of them are Tory for a generation now.
My old fiefdom of Redditch is an example. If I was a Labour strategist I wouldn't bother making much of an effort there at the next GE. It used to be a classic Con/Lab marginal. A bellwether seat even. Not now. Labour don't need it any longer to gain a majority. It's almost out of play. I suspect quite a bit of the Red Wall is now too, but maybe, intriguingly, the new key and decisive battlegrounds are elsewhere.
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Post by lens on May 12, 2022 12:18:45 GMT
Longer term the question we should be asking is that will this end if Putin is removed from the equation? Is there more of a structural element to this conflict, relating to aspects of the Russian state, history, culture, politics, public opinion and outlook or is this being driven by the agency of one individual? Maybe an interesting comparison is with the Korean War. Still not ended (officially) but the ceasefire only came about due to the death of Stalin. He saw continuing as in the interests of the Soviet Union, as although the allied forces were "winning" in terms of casualties, it was becoming increasingly unpopular in America due to their casualties. Left to the Americans, Chinese (who were taking the brunt of the deaths) and even the North Koreans (by which time their cities were largely devastated by bombing) they all wanted to stop - but Uncle Joe wanted it to drag on - nice man. Yes, there are differences - Ukraine may be far more personal to Putin than Korea was to Stalin, and in Ukraine it's Russians who are dying - not Chinese and North Koreans. But it is an example of a war which only ended when it did because of the death of a leader. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 12, 2022 12:29:05 GMT
bardin1 - yes, I think rivers are significant. Russian mounted a disastrous attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk a couple of days ago. They persist in using floating pontoons, in this case held by small boats as the river is quite large. The Ukrainians destroyed the bridge along with more than 50 tanks and assorted armoured vehicles. Ukrainian sources suggest they are trying to cross again today. Reading of the war in Western Europe in '44/'45 it seems almost one long run of dashes between water obstacles. They're a defenders blessing and an attackers curse. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2022 12:34:23 GMT
Hi colin I'm afraid that I detect signs that the answers -respectively-are No & YesSadly and reluctantly I find myself coming to the same conclusion. I'm not sure if our current group of leaders in the West are up to the job - or that our populations have the resilience, inclination, capacity and will to do what's necessary.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 12, 2022 12:51:09 GMT
eor/jimjam That popular vote share analysis of the local council results in Red Wall constituencies was indeed interesting. Depending on which year you choose to benchmark, Labour's 2022 performance varies from modest to mildly encouraging. There is a case to be made, certainly in one or two of these seats like Dudley and Newcastle under Lyne in the West Midlands, that the party isn't making anything like enough progress to be optimistic about winning a general election, but I think that it's probably worth distinguishing quite specifically between certain seats. Mr Crossbatt, you have been contaminated with the curse of UKPR2 the stray 'n'. As a resident of the borough, but not of the constituency, I know well that it's Newcastle-under-Lyme, not 'Lyne'. It is believed that 'Lyme' came from Forest of Lyme, which covered a large part of the area in the Middle Ages and consisted mostly of lime (tilia) and elm (ulmus) trees. A rivulet called the Lyme Brook runs through part of the area. Our large village resides in Bill Cash's Stone constituency, but is due to join Newcastle if the new boundaries are implemented. That could tip more Labour voters into Aaron Bell's fiefdom at the next GE. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 12, 2022 12:54:06 GMT
bardin1 - yes, I think rivers are significant. Russian mounted a disastrous attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk a couple of days ago. They persist in using floating pontoons, in this case held by small boats as the river is quite large. The Ukrainians destroyed the bridge along with more than 50 tanks and assorted armoured vehicles. Ukrainian sources suggest they are trying to cross again today. Yes - I saw the reports and its very positive that the Ukrainians were able to stop them (I suspect that is one of the first indications of the use of more long distance artillery supplied by NATO) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2022 12:55:09 GMT
By way of light relief from the serious and depressing issues of the day, this 'news' from the 'Wagatha Christie' trial made me smile. Rooney's lawyer claims WhatsApp messages that would show the leaking of stories to the Sun are on a phone dropped off the side of a boat. He says it is now "lying at the bottom of sea in Davy Jones' locker".
Vardy asks the court: "Who is Davy Jones?"
The judge intervenes. 12:49 pm · 12 May 2022·Twitter Web App
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Post by laszlo4new on May 12, 2022 12:57:01 GMT
Longer term the question we should be asking is that will this end if Putin is removed from the equation? Is there more of a structural element to this conflict, relating to aspects of the Russian state, history, culture, politics, public opinion and outlook or is this being driven by the agency of one individual? Maybe an interesting comparison is with the Korean War. Still not ended (officially) but the ceasefire only came about due to the death of Stalin. He saw continuing as in the interests of the Soviet Union, as although the allied forces were "winning" in terms of casualties, it was becoming increasingly unpopular in America due to their casualties. Left to the Americans, Chinese (who were taking the brunt of the deaths) and even the North Koreans (by which time their cities were largely devastated by bombing) they all wanted to stop - but Uncle Joe wanted it to drag on - nice man. Yes, there are differences - Ukraine may be far more personal to Putin than Korea was to Stalin, and in Ukraine it's Russians who are dying - not Chinese and North Koreans. But it is an example of a war which only ended when it did because of the death of a leader. Stalin didn't want that war (he was kind of conspired in by Korea and China (some minutes of the meetings were released, but I cannot search for them right now). The rest of the comment points are very correct. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 12, 2022 13:03:59 GMT
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Post by johntel on May 12, 2022 13:05:40 GMT
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2022 13:08:15 GMT
Maybe an interesting comparison is with the Korean War. Still not ended (officially) but the ceasefire only came about due to the death of Stalin. He saw continuing as in the interests of the Soviet Union, as although the allied forces were "winning" in terms of casualties, it was becoming increasingly unpopular in America due to their casualties. Left to the Americans, Chinese (who were taking the brunt of the deaths) and even the North Koreans (by which time their cities were largely devastated by bombing) they all wanted to stop - but Uncle Joe wanted it to drag on - nice man. Yes, there are differences - Ukraine may be far more personal to Putin than Korea was to Stalin, and in Ukraine it's Russians who are dying - not Chinese and North Koreans. But it is an example of a war which only ended when it did because of the death of a leader. Stalin didn't want that war (he was kind of conspired in by Korea and China (some minutes of the meetings were released, but I cannot search for them right now). The rest of the comment points are very correct. |
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Post by johntel on May 12, 2022 13:08:55 GMT
By way of light relief from the serious and depressing issues of the day, this 'news' from the 'Wagatha Christie' trial made me smile. Rooney's lawyer claims WhatsApp messages that would show the leaking of stories to the Sun are on a phone dropped off the side of a boat. He says it is now "lying at the bottom of sea in Davy Jones' locker".
Vardy asks the court: "Who is Davy Jones?"
The judge intervenes. 12:49 pm · 12 May 2022·Twitter Web App
Maybe Davy Jones' locker was the source of the leak?  |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2022 13:11:40 GMT
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Post by bardin1 on May 12, 2022 13:13:38 GMT
By way of light relief from the serious and depressing issues of the day, this 'news' from the 'Wagatha Christie' trial made me smile. Rooney's lawyer claims WhatsApp messages that would show the leaking of stories to the Sun are on a phone dropped off the side of a boat. He says it is now "lying at the bottom of sea in Davy Jones' locker".
Vardy asks the court: "Who is Davy Jones?"
The judge intervenes. 12:49 pm · 12 May 2022·Twitter Web App
Sounds like it's all Monkee business to me |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 12, 2022 13:17:27 GMT
By way of light relief from the serious and depressing issues of the day, this 'news' from the 'Wagatha Christie' trial made me smile. Rooney's lawyer claims WhatsApp messages that would show the leaking of stories to the Sun are on a phone dropped off the side of a boat. He says it is now "lying at the bottom of sea in Davy Jones' locker".
Vardy asks the court: "Who is Davy Jones?"
The judge intervenes. 12:49 pm · 12 May 2022·Twitter Web App
Fancy Mrs Vardy not having heard of the former Wigan and Wolves Manager. Doesn't she ever talk to her husband about football matters? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2022 13:21:38 GMT
By way of light relief from the serious and depressing issues of the day, this 'news' from the 'Wagatha Christie' trial made me smile. Rooney's lawyer claims WhatsApp messages that would show the leaking of stories to the Sun are on a phone dropped off the side of a boat. He says it is now "lying at the bottom of sea in Davy Jones' locker".
Vardy asks the court: "Who is Davy Jones?"
The judge intervenes. 12:49 pm · 12 May 2022·Twitter Web App
Fancy Mrs Vardy not having heard of the former Wigan and Wolves Manager. Doesn't she ever talk to her husband about football matters? |
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Post by pete on May 12, 2022 13:34:09 GMT
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Post by laszlo4new on May 12, 2022 13:48:15 GMT
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As Andy I think mentioned there isn't much of a future plan at the moment, just reaction, which can be evaluated and adjusted day by day in such a dynamic situation.
