Danny
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Post by Danny on May 13, 2022 5:37:56 GMT
Government apparently has said there are too many people working in the passport office, so that is one area they can cut staff. I guess they mean there are so many staff they are getting in each others way, and thats why there is a massive backlog in processing new passports???
They have a goal of returning to levels of civil servants from 2016. Presumably the difference is people needed to administer extra stuff because of brexit, and consequences of covid. But the theme supposedly is a return to increasing efficiency so all departments need fewer staff. Since they have had this same policy for more than ten years, how?
It seems likely the recent drive to order civil servants to work from offices instead of home, isnt likely to help efficiency either.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 5:41:57 GMT
With news that the wankocracracy wants to get rid of the staff it recruited to mitigate he disaster it caused via brexit it's interesting to see what Tories think of team Spaffer
The Tory voters in Tiverton and Honiton obviously don’t think johnson was a good choice.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 5:48:09 GMT
eor This was the poll I was referring to "The last time Yahoo News/YouGov asked about confidence in the court was in September 2020, a few days after liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died and a few days before Trump nominated conservative jurist Amy Coney Barrett to replace her. Back then, 70% of registered voters said they had either “some” (50%) or “a lot” (20%) of confidence in the court( my error I thought this red 73%), and 30% said they had either “a little” (23%) or “none” (7%). But the new survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted immediately after the leak, found that registered voters have swung from mostly having confidence in the Supreme Court — by a colossal 40-point margin — to being evenly split on the question. Today, just half of voters still express some (37%) or a lot (14%) of confidence in the court, while the other half now expresses either a little (24%) or none (26%). And among all Americans — as opposed to just registered voters — most (53%) now say they have either no confidence in the Supreme Court (28%) or only a little (25%). " The Gallup polling you referred to also shows a precipitous fall in confidence so I'm not entirely sure why you conclude it doesn't.
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Post by alec on May 13, 2022 6:21:56 GMT
Don't want to be accused of relentless optimism (thought I was meant to be the miserable Cassandra on here anyway) but the ISW latest assessment from Ukraine suggests that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Izyum axis is continuing, and they therefore conclude that Russia has probably given up on the idea of a large scale encirclement of Ukrainian forces across the east. This has probably been triggered by the success of the Kharkiv counter attack by Ukraine. When this possibility was raised a couple of weeks ago, I was accused of relentless optimism etc etc, but these reversals just keep on happening for Putin.
According to the ISW, the plan now seems to be some far more limited encirclement operations around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, but the ISW doubt that they can achieve these more limited objectives, saying "Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war".
So far, after the first few days of the war, the ISW has been absolutely correct about almost everything they have postulated. The one major mistake they did make was in assuming Mariupol would fall around seven or eight weeks ago, but yesterday we saw video accounts of Ukrainian counter attacks around the steel works.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 13, 2022 6:23:30 GMT
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 13, 2022 6:25:05 GMT
Is it safe yet???  Yes it is, but it's not good news for Gooners. Spurs 3 Arsenal 0. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 6:30:23 GMT
alec Don't worry I will never accuse you of relentless optimism. Without declaring his invasion a war,war criminal Putin is faced with significant logistic issues. Serving soldiers in the Russian forces if ordered to Ukraine can simply refuse , the only punishment they face is either the sack or redeployment elsewhere in Russia. By all accounts hundreds if not thousands have done precisely that. With upwards of 75% of Russian combat ready forces already having been deployed to Ukraine and possibly as much as 25% already rendered combat ineffective it's difficult to see how Putin sustains his criminality.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 13, 2022 6:38:42 GMT
News carrying reports of a significant defeat of Russian troops trying to cross a river by pontoon. Is this the same one mentioned above which they just got round to, or another defeat trying again? The tactics of attempting to cross a river by pontoon in a contested area were described as 'desperation'. Waiting list to receive home care growing steadily. The reason apparently is a shortage of staff to provide the care. Agencies report they cannot attract staff at the wages councils are willing to pay. Presumably councils will therefore be forced to raise wages.
No surprise there, because our own personal experience in hiring care has for years been staff require more pay than councils are willing to allocate. So a council will say you need 100 hours help at £5 an hour, which in reality is enough to buy 50 hours. You will be allocated a personal budget only sufficient for half what the council assessed you need. Or if getting help directly, simply expect it not to turn up a lot as agencies have staff shortages.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 6:38:51 GMT
Attachment DeletedNumber 10 downing street is now the location of more detected criminality than any other single building in the country. World beating in action.
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Post by jib on May 13, 2022 6:55:13 GMT
Don't want to be accused of relentless optimism (thought I was meant to be the miserable Cassandra on here anyway) but the ISW latest assessment from Ukraine suggests that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Izyum axis is continuing, and they therefore conclude that Russia has probably given up on the idea of a large scale encirclement of Ukrainian forces across the east. This has probably been triggered by the success of the Kharkiv counter attack by Ukraine. When this possibility was raised a couple of weeks ago, I was accused of relentless optimism etc etc, but these reversals just keep on happening for Putin. According to the ISW, the plan now seems to be some far more limited encirclement operations around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, but the ISW doubt that they can achieve these more limited objectives, saying "Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war". So far, after the first few days of the war, the ISW has been absolutely correct about almost everything they have postulated. The one major mistake they did make was in assuming Mariupol would fall around seven or eight weeks ago, but yesterday we saw video accounts of Ukrainian counter attacks around the steel works. I keep thinking of the holdout in Mariupol, if those brave soldiers hold out for relief, they are going to be national heroes. Putin has succeeded in galvanising the Ukrainian state. Let's hope they can get Crimea back as well. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 13, 2022 7:00:16 GMT
Don't want to be accused of relentless optimism (thought I was meant to be the miserable Cassandra on here anyway) but the ISW latest assessment from Ukraine suggests that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Izyum axis is continuing, and they therefore conclude that Russia has probably given up on the idea of a large scale encirclement of Ukrainian forces across the east. This has probably been triggered by the success of the Kharkiv counter attack by Ukraine. When this possibility was raised a couple of weeks ago, I was accused of relentless optimism etc etc, but these reversals just keep on happening for Putin. According to the ISW, the plan now seems to be some far more limited encirclement operations around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, but the ISW doubt that they can achieve these more limited objectives, saying "Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war". So far, after the first few days of the war, the ISW has been absolutely correct about almost everything they have postulated. The one major mistake they did make was in assuming Mariupol would fall around seven or eight weeks ago, but yesterday we saw video accounts of Ukrainian counter attacks around the steel works. I mentioned above the Russian debate program where a retired general explained why a callup of new troops wouldnt help. But for this to be broadcsat at all, it has to be policy, and it has to be aimed at discouraging calls for this from the public. So the Russian government is preparing its population for not escalating the war. Its maybe the first step in preparing the population for withdrawal in the face of an army backed by the might of NATO.
I can see a credible narrative there for Putin, that he wasnt defeated by Ukraine but by the whole of NATO. That he was right to try, because Russia is being encircled. Finland joining NATO will help in this. Greater national efforts needed for the future. Gallant failure.
Although it seems Russian troops continue to attack on a smaller battlefield, which might allow them to concentrate more troops, when their style of warfare is being described as high risk, it does not sound as though they are settling down to a long standoff battle. It sounds as though they are having one last try.
Ok, that might be a last push for more territory before staking out a defencive line around current gains, but equally it isnt clear whether there is any defencible line.
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Post by alec on May 13, 2022 7:02:49 GMT
@danny - "News carrying reports of a significant defeat of Russian troops trying to cross a river by pontoon. Is this the same one mentioned above which they just got round to, or another defeat trying again?"
This was the same battle mentioned yesterday, although there are Ukrainian reports of further attempts being made to cross. One of these was apparently defeated yesterday, but another is claimed to be underway today.
Estimates of Russian losses vary, but it was clearly a pretty catastrophic defeat. Some analysts count around 40 heavy equipment items lost, others looking more recently at a wider area have figures approaching 80. There seems to be widespread agreement that this one engagement has lost Russia an entire battalion tactical group (BTG).
Russian tactics on crossings and their general approach to transport logistics has been widely criticised throughout the campaign. For some reason, Russia prefers floating pontoons, which are difficult to transport and easy to disrupt. By contract, Ukraine uses pre-cast concrete sewer sections with stone ballast dropped on top, a solution far easier to source, deliver and maintain, and harder to disrupt. Ukraine also seem more capable of repairing infrastructure hit by missile strikes. A rail bridge in Irpin that was 'destroyed' according to the Russian was back up and running with trains crossing less than ten days after the initial strike. I suspect that this is going to be quite important, as all the estimates suggest that Russia lack precision munitions in quantity, so has limited capacity to make such strikes.
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Post by alec on May 13, 2022 7:10:02 GMT
jib - I doubt that Mariupol can hold out, although weirdly enough, it has been proven (by visual images of weapons used in April) that Ukraine was still supplying the defenders beyond March, weeks after they were allegedly cutoff by Russia. The suggestions were that this was via low level helicopter drops, which sounds credible, having seen battlefield footage of the ability of Ukrainian pilots to fly at (literally) tree top level. Fixed wing Ukrainian fighters and even large transport planes are regularly being filmed at incredibly low altitudes. I also don't see Crimea as being in play. An attack there, even if feasible for Ukraine, which I seriously doubt, would be too much for Putin and would lead (in my view) to a dramatic escalation. I suspect Putin will end up holding a fair chunk of Ukraine, but not necessarily on a stable basis.
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Post by alec on May 13, 2022 7:12:56 GMT
eor - accept the numbers from your post on that Lancet study. Long covid is going to be a developing story, with a good deal of difficulty discerning the true scale of the problem, but it does increasingly look like a major problem. oldnat - thanks for those insights on social mobility. I did wonder whether residence by postcode might show an initial downward shift, as children leave home and move into their first properties, before subsequently trading up back into 'nicer' areas. An interesting topic though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2022 7:13:01 GMT
Hunt warming up.  |
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Post by EmCat on May 13, 2022 7:20:15 GMT
it's difficult to see how Putin sustains his criminality. I'm reminded of a joke. Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon Bonaparte suddenly find themselves transported to see the Victory day parade in Moscow. Alexander sees the mass of troops marching act, and says "With an army like this, I could have conquered the world!" Caesar sees the tanks, and says "With chariots like these, the Roman Empire would never have fallen!" Napoleon looks up from his copy of Pravda and says "If I'd had newspapers like these, no one would ever have heard of Waterloo" In other words, he sustains his rule by deliberately not informing the population what is actually going on. History show the Duma can keep this tactic up for decades. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 13, 2022 7:24:22 GMT
I also don't see Crimea as being in play. An attack there, even if feasible for Ukraine, which I seriously doubt, would be too much for Putin and would lead (in my view) to a dramatic escalation. . Just how could he escalate? He no longer has an army in reserve. I would think crimea has considerable dug in defences since it has been occupied for years. It would depend how well Ukraine has prepared for attacking it. It is possible this entire campaign has been planned beforehand by Ukraine, who obviously must have been working on how to get the Russians out if an opportunity arose. Russian military is now massively depleted so this is the opportunity.
eor - accept the numbers from your post on that Lancet study. Long covid is going to be a developing story, with a good deal of difficulty discerning the true scale of the problem, but it does increasingly look like a major problem. Frankly this looks like the propaganda department desperately searching for new ways to justify the massive blunder of a world lockdown. A study saying people very sick with covid are very sick with covid is of limited applicability to anyone except medics trying to help those people. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 7:29:48 GMT
EmCat I was referring to his criminality in Ukraine. Sustaining criminality with a pliant media that ignores regime wrongdoing ( now where else have we seem this)at home is a different matter.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 13, 2022 7:30:54 GMT
Yes it is, but it's not good news for Gooners. Spurs 3 Arsenal 0. I haven't watched the Eurovision contest since I was in my early teens when it was compulsive family viewing in our household. My parents were avid fans and it was a big event for them. I remember cheering for Lulu and Sandie Shaw, even Cliff Richard! I think I ducked out around the time the Irish were monopolising it with Dana and Jonny Logan. Abba were definitely a highlight and were seriously good popsters. Dancing Queen a classic of the genre. Spent many a 70s boy meets girl disco trying, usually unsuccessfully, to persuade the prettiest girl there to dance with me to that tune! It was the one that got most people on to the dancing floor. Thinking back to those old discos, the crucial slow number at the end, when the game was by then to have seriously hit it off with a young lady for the closing clinch, was nearly always Nights in White Satin by the Moody Blues or I'm not in Love by 10cc. I became very attached to those songs for a while. Mesmerised by them in fact! That said I once lost my heart to a girl at the Headlands Disco in Bude to the accompaniment of the Commodores. The DJ had to be persuaded that Smoke on the Water by Deep Purple wasn't quite what the lovebirds were looking for! It was all about Lionel Richie and being easy like Sunday morning. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 13, 2022 7:40:06 GMT
There seems to be a vacancy in the cassandra role....
Amidst some good news stories (including the sinking of another ship, albeit just a landing craft) the BBC report on the destruction of the pontoon crossing also has this:
"But, they are making progress elsewhere, it seems – with reports they have taken the nearby town of Rubizhne. That would mean the strategically important city of Severodonetsk is surrounded on three sides.
If Russian forces can take that they would control a number of crossings over the river, which has recently cost them so dear."
Rubizhne (population 55k) is North west of Luhansk and would represent another advance in that area -where I would guess Ukraine has some of its best and most seasoned troops dug in. So its not all good news
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Post by hireton on May 13, 2022 7:41:42 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 13, 2022 7:49:22 GMT
Don't want to be accused of relentless optimism (thought I was meant to be the miserable Cassandra on here anyway) but the ISW latest assessment from Ukraine suggests that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Izyum axis is continuing, and they therefore conclude that Russia has probably given up on the idea of a large scale encirclement of Ukrainian forces across the east. This has probably been triggered by the success of the Kharkiv counter attack by Ukraine. When this possibility was raised a couple of weeks ago, I was accused of relentless optimism etc etc, but these reversals just keep on happening for Putin. According to the ISW, the plan now seems to be some far more limited encirclement operations around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, but the ISW doubt that they can achieve these more limited objectives, saying "Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war". So far, after the first few days of the war, the ISW has been absolutely correct about almost everything they have postulated. The one major mistake they did make was in assuming Mariupol would fall around seven or eight weeks ago, but yesterday we saw video accounts of Ukrainian counter attacks around the steel works. I mentioned above the Russian debate program where a retired general explained why a callup of new troops wouldnt help. But for this to be broadcsat at all, it has to be policy, and it has to be aimed at discouraging calls for this from the public. So the Russian government is preparing its population for not escalating the war. Its maybe the first step in preparing the population for withdrawal in the face of an army backed by the might of NATO.
I can see a credible narrative there for Putin, that he wasnt defeated by Ukraine but by the whole of NATO. That he was right to try, because Russia is being encircled. Finland joining NATO will help in this. Greater national efforts needed for the future. Gallant failure.
Although it seems Russian troops continue to attack on a smaller battlefield, which might allow them to concentrate more troops, when their style of warfare is being described as high risk, it does not sound as though they are settling down to a long standoff battle. It sounds as though they are having one last try.
Ok, that might be a last push for more territory before staking out a defencive line around current gains, but equally it isnt clear whether there is any defencible line.
Very interesting and informative, thanks Danny and especially so as you resisted the temptation to mention that you believe Russia was deliberately encouraged to attack |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 13, 2022 7:49:36 GMT
Hi crossbat11 It was the one that got most people on to the dancing floor.I think that still holds true today - well at least at weddings. When I was at Uni (90s)many clubs started doing 'School Disco' nights, and the floor was always packed when they played it. If my niece is anything to go by then its popularity continues with teens today. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 13, 2022 7:54:41 GMT
bardin1 The Russian forces have been in Rubizhne for weeks but seem incapable of dislodging Ukrainian resistance.
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on May 13, 2022 8:00:03 GMT
Alec "But, in terms of relative performance, at least, if some are going up, some must be going down. Increased social mobility ultimately has to mean that some of those upper middle classes who lack the talent or work ethic must slide down the ladder, making way for the better people to climb past them. It's an uncomfortable truism."
It's a good point, but I disagree with the word better. MY grandfather was exceedingly rich. My father grew up in a castle, but, because of entailment inherited nothing. He was a teacher in a secondary modern school. I live very comfortably in a 30s semi and would probably be classed by you as one of "those upper middle classes who lack the talent or work ethic (and) must slide down the ladder, making way for the better people to climb past them." I'm rather proud of my downward mobility in fact, and I would say both my father's life and my own have been both happier and more honest than my illustrious forebears. People get this wrong: being 'the rich man in his castle' is an awful karma. Poverty too. That's why my political beliefs are base don the need for equality.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 13, 2022 8:21:32 GMT
There seems to be a vacancy in the cassandra role.... Amidst some good news stories (including the sinking of another ship, albeit just a landing craft) the BBC report on the destruction of the pontoon crossing also has this: "But, they are making progress elsewhere, it seems – with reports they have taken the nearby town of Rubizhne. That would mean the strategically important city of Severodonetsk is surrounded on three sides. If Russian forces can take that they would control a number of crossings over the river, which has recently cost them so dear." Rubizhne (population 55k) is North west of Luhansk and would represent another advance in that area -where I would guess Ukraine has some of its best and most seasoned troops dug in. So its not all good news
I would add, that crossing a river if you don't fully control both banks, is one of the most difficult and risky manoeuvres in warfare. This attempt went badly for the Russians, and obvs the Ukrainian's want to make as much propaganda out of it as possible - but I would be weary of drawing too much into it as an indicator of the final outcome, but would conclude Western intelligence resources probably played some role.
(One of the factors in calculating they would invade in winter was that the rivers would be frozen posing less of a barrier - the delay due to the Olympics is one of the (many) factors why the war hasn't gone well for Russia.)
domjg
Love the new avatar. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 13, 2022 8:24:08 GMT
For what it's worth latest Techne poll
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Post by wb61 on May 13, 2022 8:37:17 GMT
To all you putative Cassandra's out there: your not, she was always right!  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 13, 2022 8:41:20 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 13, 2022 8:49:30 GMT
Interesting
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