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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2022 13:15:21 GMT
RaF,
There can also be use of the trusted trader scheme so when my company, for example, ships in to NI we are trusted to declare if any is destined for ROI.
Would be a spot check regime of course but very workable as long as small businesses are supported.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 14:02:40 GMT
Moron of the day award goes to Brandon Lewis faced with a 54% majority from parties that oppose changing the northern Ireland protocol Lewis demands that " for stability" it must be changed.
That's the same northern Ireland protocol that the Spaffer regime demanded, wrote, voted for and implemented.
Needless to say Lewis blamed the European union for being " intransigent ".
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Post by lens on May 8, 2022 14:38:18 GMT
Incorrect. The benefits of mask wearing for an individual are very substantial, and in many cases live changing. You are wrong on this. "Very substantial"? A while back, even you were prepared to admit that in such as shops etc any benefit was pretty slight - if the benefits really were "very substantial" then why has the Scottish situation not improved dramatically relative to England? It's Steve who is correct. Anecdotally, I know a few people who are very "mask conscious" - and they seem to have had the same incidence of catching Covid as people I know who have ditched a mask a long time ago. If there is any benefit, it's simply ridiculous to pretend it's "very substantial". If you want to protect yourself and others, get vaccinated - everything else is way, way less important. You are consistently downplaying the risks of covid, getting bogged down with an out of date focus on current death rates, which are no longer an effective means to measure harms. What you say is true - but not in the way you think. Last I heard Covid death rates significantly OVERSTATE the risk - over half of the Covid deaths are "with" Covid, not because of. Of the remainder the vast majority are down to people who are not vaccinated. For a vaccinated individual they would do far, far better to worry about health matters other than Covid. Steve is absolutely right - everyone needs to get a sense of proportion about Covid. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 15:11:46 GMT
lens - the problem is that where you have a half hearted attempt at containment, those measures that you do apply have a half hearted impact. So while FFP2 masks have been proven to provide exceptionally high levels of protection across a full working shift in a very high risk area (several detailed studies in hospitals have found this) if those medical staff then go home to a family with school age children, where the schools are completely failing to follow sensible precautionary measures like air purification and testing/isolation, then your medics are going to get infected and the numbers on mask wearing look marginal. For example, there was a well cited case in Missouri (I think) where two hairdressers subsequently found to have covid had 137 customers in the hair salon in the time between testing and getting results. The two were masked up throughout, and not a single one of their customers was reported as covid positive in subsequent follow up testing. There are lots of reasons why masking appears to have a minimal effect, but the essential central point is that they are very effective for the individual, can be made more effective if everyone is wearing, and if the masks are of a higher standard and properly used, effective end transmission. Governments could easily supply such masks and educate the public in how to use them. Britain has many amazing achievements in our past, but apparently a simple 60 second public information film on proper mask wearing is too much for us. Like I say, I find you attitude to this distinctly weird. It's as if you want to have a high tax burden for years to come because the NHS is swamped with people with lasting covid symptoms, because we all just couldn't be bothered. jib - "I read in the paper that there is greater focus on developing vaccines that reduce transmission, a good move if it's feasible." I think the original hope was that the initial vaccines would do far more to neutralize transmission, and although they do in the sense that they reduce the period of infection, once infected there isn't any real benefit. The two ways vaccines are developing are firstly, towards a pan-coronavirus vaccine that should be effective against any variants, or even other coronaviruses. Initial trials on one of these showed that it generated antibodies to Sars 1, even though that was not included in the vaccine formulation. The big pharma companies have persisted with the specific variants vaccines, because that will make them very good money, and a single shot that persists and covers many different viruses and strains won't, but fortunately governments aren't listening so much to them now and are pumping money into this new area. The second idea that is gaining ground is the nasal spray delivery. The idea is to generate mucosal immunity, so the virus can't enter the cells in the first place. This offers neutralizing immunity without needles, and if previous spray vaccines are a guide, this could be achieved at far lower doses, with one trial generating a good immune response with just 15% of the injected dose. This should reduce vaccine side effects, and spread the vaccines much more widely. Only two African nations have currently achieve 50% + for the first dose, so anything that gets more snorts from the same volume of vaccine would be essential. I think we will crack this in due course, through a mixture of new generation vaccines and better public health management, and that if we have governments that can push these new findings into practical outcomes, we will end up in a better place than pre covid, as regards respiratory viruses. Danish research has recently shown a correlation between shorter life span and the number of 'minor' flu like infections caught, so this outcome would be very useful indeed. But to get there, we need a government. This lot couldn't find their own arse with both hands, so I suspect that in Britain at least, we need a change at the top before any real progress comes. I'm just baffled that so many people give up just because Johnson tells them to.
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Post by superted on May 8, 2022 15:46:26 GMT
Croydon counting still going on. 4 recounts in wards held by labour in 2018
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 16:01:29 GMT
lens - "What you say is true - but not in the way you think. Last I heard Covid death rates significantly OVERSTATE the risk - over half of the Covid deaths are "with" Covid, not because of. Of the remainder the vast majority are down to people who are not vaccinated. For a vaccinated individual they would do far, far better to worry about health matters other than Covid." Sorry, but you are completely wrong on this. The majority of deaths with covid have been from covid, or where covid has played a part in an early death. This is one of the persistent myths of covid I'm afraid. No, the majority of deaths from covid are not in the unvaccinated. Again, that's just total rubbish I'm afraid. So, for example, in January 2022, just 668 unvaccinated people died of covid in England, (increased to 793 if you want to add in those with one jab only, or too soon after second jab for it to be effective). 1135 died with a second dose, and 2548 died after having a third or booster dose. I'm afraid you are just talking rubbish here. It is true that vaccines do reduce the chances of deaths, but even here, if you control covid you will have a 3 - 8% chance of long covid, even after three vaccines, and this risk could be life changing. You are not being informed of the dangers.
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Post by superted on May 8, 2022 16:08:29 GMT
Conservatives take both new Addington south seats on quite a swing. Other recounts are Waddon, new Addington north and crystal Palace and Upper Norwood.
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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2022 16:12:16 GMT
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Post by Old Southendian on May 8, 2022 16:18:21 GMT
That was very 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 of you. (Bad day for me, 5 goes.) |
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Post by RAF on May 8, 2022 16:20:53 GMT
Conservatives take both new Addington south seats on quite a swing. Other recounts are Waddon, new Addington north and crystal Palace and Upper Norwood. Does New Addington South include the housing estate? After the happenings at Croydon over the past few years, it would be surprising if the Tories didn't take it. |
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Post by superted on May 8, 2022 16:23:33 GMT
New Addington north sees one each for labour and Conservative, a change from two Labour last time
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 8, 2022 16:24:11 GMT
Conservatives take both new Addington south seats on quite a swing. Other recounts are Waddon, new Addington north and crystal Palace and Upper Norwood. |
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Post by superted on May 8, 2022 16:26:04 GMT
Conservatives take both new Addington south seats on quite a swing. Other recounts are Waddon, new Addington north and crystal Palace and Upper Norwood. Does New Addington South include the housing estate? After the happenings at Croydon over the past few years, it would be surprising if the Tories didn't take it. No idea what the boundaries are. Yes, would be surprising if the tories didn't take it. Whaddon recount is presumably lab/con. Less sure about crystal Palace and upper Norwood lib dems might be involved there. Let's hope there isn't long to wait! |
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Post by lens on May 8, 2022 16:30:10 GMT
lens - "What you say is true - but not in the way you think. Last I heard Covid death rates significantly OVERSTATE the risk - over half of the Covid deaths are "with" Covid, not because of. Of the remainder the vast majority are down to people who are not vaccinated. For a vaccinated individual they would do far, far better to worry about health matters other than Covid." Sorry, but you are completely wrong on this. The majority of deaths with covid have been from covid, or where covid has played a part in an early death. This is one of the persistent myths of covid I'm afraid. It depends when you're talking about - and maybe I could have been clearer. The majority of deaths over the last two years may well have been directly due to the Covid itself. It's not true about deaths now. *NOW* the chances of dying from Covid (if you are fully vaccinated) are overstated by the official "deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test" figure. Just compare the "Covid deaths" figure for the UK with excess deaths. For much of the pandemic they tracked, for the last few months the "Covid deaths" have been climbing far more quickly than excess deaths. In many countries of the world (eg India) excess deaths are far higher than official Covid deaths - a sign of undercounting? - in the UK it's the opposite. Which I take as a sign that our counting of "Covid deaths" has been too high. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2022 16:40:26 GMT
We are on a merry-go-round, and will continue to be so for as long as it takes for society to understand that simple measures to contain transmission, and thus slow the production of new variants, is the only way we're going to get back to a new normal. I am surprised you did not learn in 2 years of attempting to suppress covid-that nothing we did succeeded in containing transmission. It isnt possible except through people becoming immune, and that will not happen from vaccination. Arguably it isnt possible to create a lasting herd immunity at all, which is the situation with other circulating corona viruse. What we have done is build up enough immunity to avoid sever disease, but most of us had that in 2019 already.
Thats all we can do. there is absolutely no alternative to simply living with the infection as we do with other corona viruses. Worse, it would have been far better had we done this from the outset and got this over fast. You seem to believe that our hiding away for decades until this works through the population is aceptable- it absolutely isnt. It is not acceptable as a lifestyle and it is not viable because of the cost of intervening in society. Are you willing to personally pay the vast bill run up by the policies you are pushing? Somehow i doubt it.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2022 16:45:37 GMT
]What you say is true - but not in the way you think. Last I heard Covid death rates significantly OVERSTATE the risk - over half of the Covid deaths are "with" Covid, not because of. Of the remainder the vast majority are down to people who are not vaccinated. For a vaccinated individual they would do far, far better to worry about health matters other than Covid. The stats I have seen say that while there are disproportionately more cases amongst unvaccinated people, the actual percentage risk isnt much different. This implies a small minority of unvaccinated people is generating the cases. Which I dont find surprising- the correct strategy has always been there isnt much point vaccinating any except high risk, and it seems around 30% of the population vaccinated is comfortably enough. Its a similar pattern to who gets flu vaccinations. For much the same reasons. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 16:49:15 GMT
lens - that's a load of bollocks that you are being fed. See here - blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/Most patients who die with covid die of covid. That they have other conditions is not really relevant. Covid kills those with underlying conditions easier than the completely healthy, but that still means covid killed them. Omicron showed the same pattern as previous waves. The point about excess deaths is also misleading. The UK has a very substantially higher number of deaths from respiratory diseases than many other comparable countries, because for years we have had very poor health outcomes in that regard. The excess deaths denominator is therefore distorted in the UK's case, and after 2 years of covid, is likely to be distorted anyway, wherever you are. With high rates of mortality among the vulnerable for the last couple of years, normal deaths are likely to be lower anyway, so generating a period of negative figures for excess deaths. This will make covid deaths appear less impactful, but it is a result of a distortion of the denominator, not a reduction in covid impacts. I get that people want this all to be good news, and that's an easier thing to cope with than the continuing vigilance we need if we accept the truth of the situation, but looking the other way doesn't make the truth go away.
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 16:51:13 GMT
@danny - not arguing with you. You can live in Fairy Land if you like, but it's not impressive. You've been wrong on nearly everything to do with covid, and I have no respect for those who are proven to be wrong and can't accept it.
If the evidence changes, I will change my mind, and I don't have any problems with that. I believe you need to grow up a little, to be honest.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2022 16:58:44 GMT
lens - the problem is that where you have a half hearted attempt at containment, those measures that you do apply have a half hearted impact. We have never had successful containment in the Uk, so I guess you are saying it is impossible to achive a wholehearted containment here? So this is entirely hypothetical and pointless propounding it. Od you slipped in a naughty one there!You claimed taking strict measures in schools the same as in hospitals would be sensible. It absolutely isn't. The kids need to be exposed as they grow to create life long immunity. As a society we need to get back to doing this the natural way instead of relying upon technological medicine which frankly has failed. The NHS may be swamped but it will be because of a policy of deliberately keeping the covid epidemic going as long as possible. Thats what your plan has always amounted to. No saving of lives overall, just burning money and destruction of the economy as we sat at home. Current Covid vaccines and indeed infections create immunity against other corona viruses already. and vice versa, other corona infections created immunity to corona. I have reported on this here, as have others, but maybe you missed it. Thats how we became significantly immune before covid even existed. (hint: its the original 'vaccination' method, you give the patient a related virus and it creates cross immunity) They might or might not work. What we can definitely say is they have arrived way too late to have been a solution to this epidemic. Which looks pretty much under control now-because we have reverted to traditional method of just getting infected and recovering. Might help the Chinese, who seem determined to keep their population un-immune by severe strict lockdowns. (to the extent you actually make them work, then you can never end them- because once you do it will come back. You seem to have become the advocate for the ultimate police state.) |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 17:00:09 GMT
This graphic should be noted - /photo/1
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Post by ladyvalerie on May 8, 2022 17:05:02 GMT
That was very 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 of you. (Bad day for me, 5 goes.) I had a flash of inspiration. Doesn’t happen very often 😜 |
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Post by superted on May 8, 2022 17:24:43 GMT
Recount in Fairfield(croydon) too. Suggestion that the greens have won.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2022 17:27:23 GMT
Most patients who die with covid die of covid. That they have other conditions is not really relevant. Covid kills those with underlying conditions easier than the completely healthy, but that still means covid killed them. Omicron showed the same pattern as previous waves. No. What you are really comparing is whether illness A or illness B kills faster or slower. Where someone would not die if they had only one of those illnesses, but do if they have both, then this tends to get recorded against the one which kills fastest. ie covid. But it was always a joint effort. And both would be recorded on the certificate, but we are highlighting just covid. Do you recall I quoted regulations which say you have to mention covid on the death certificate, even if the patients only involvement was a recorded NEGATIVE test. Oh dear oh dear oh dear. You have completely missed the point of excess deaths figures. The whole idea is you look at a period spanning a specific illness, and determine if during that time net deaths were higher or lower. if higher, then the implication is the specific illness led to that number of extra deaths. If lower, the implication is the specific illness saved lives (yes, its possible). The period has to be longer than the actual outbreak, to allow for fewer deaths being recorded after it ended precisely because those people would have died anyway. In your example you are trying to discount lower deaths because you argue sick people already died from covid. Well duh, the whole point of the calculation is to discount those people as dying from the epidemic BECAUSE they would have ended up dead anyway. They were not extra deaths. |
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Post by hireton on May 8, 2022 17:27:44 GMT
Signs that the Tories realise "beergate" is pretty much a lose/lose game for them:
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 17:27:56 GMT
Dennis Waterman has died. Not the greatest actor, nor the greatest singer, but a staple TV figure of my youth, and part of the ground breaking Sweeney team that helped to dispel the myths around 1970s era police, and broke new ground in TV crime drama.
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 17:30:20 GMT
Stop being silly @danny.
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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2022 17:33:25 GMT
Leave it out Alec!
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Post by barbara on May 8, 2022 17:44:20 GMT
I'm following you all avidly but as I'm in a cruise this week with intermittent and unreliable Internet I can't offer my inestimable words of wisdom.
Suffice to say 'beergate' is win win for Labour and lose lose for the Tories.
Either Starmer is exonerated or he isn't and resigns thus putting further pressure on Johnson to do likewise.
I suspect that Richard Holden is not the most popular Tory MP at present as his pushing has created this situation where the Tories can't win.
Lovely!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2022 17:51:35 GMT
I'm following you all avidly but as I'm in a cruise this week with intermittent and unreliable Internet I can't offer my inestimable words of wisdom. Suffice to say 'beergate' is win win for Labour and lose lose for the Tories. Either Starmer is exonerated or he isn't and resigns thus putting further pressure on Johnson to do likewise. I suspect that Richard Holden is not the most popular Tory MP at present as his pushing has created this situation where the Tories can't win. Lovely! I half agree this, but the downside is it does play into the "they're all the same" narrative. Many people won't follow the detail and will just assume Starmer 'got away with it' if he is exonerated. |
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Post by RAF on May 8, 2022 18:19:53 GMT
Signs that the Tories realise "beergate" is pretty much a lose/lose game for them: I'm afraid, as Canute demonstated to his subjects, you can't hold back the tide. Whatever some Tories may now want. |
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