7-Feb-2022 : LAB: 42 / CON: 32 / LDEM: 9 / GRN: 6

[steve]

hireton

The poster immediately corrected themselves and said meant have a great night.
The sun without the pictures must have inadvertently missed this!

[neilj]

May 8, 2022 7:28:55 GMT steve said:

pete
Agreed but on the remote chance we're wrong and he gets a fpn he should resign as leader forthwith.
Would make the convict in number 10 look even more culpable and arrogant if he didn't follow.

I agree and would go further. I don't believe Starmer broke the regs but he has to come out fighting now. He should make a statement to the effect that he is absolutely certain he hasn't broken any laws, but if he is given a FPT he will resign as leader immediately

This will take pressure off him and put it back on Johnson. In the unlikely event he's given a FPT it is likely he would have to go anyway as the pressure to do do will be immense, so he's nothing to lose by taking the moral high ground.

[moby]

May 8, 2022 7:25:55 GMT jimjam said:

Notwithstanding Pete's post about us jumping the gun I can say that both Streeting and Lewis are extremely unlikely.

The former would be unacceptable to the those on the left who are giving Starmer the benefit of the doubt and many moderates recognise this.

Maybe in 10 years, leader after next when time has healed etc.

Lewis is simply not liked being seen as arrogant and full of himself and also he has too much remain baggage.

Before anyone suggests anything this is not subconscious bias

Lewis is an interesting character but also a loose cannon. He's not really level headed enough to be leader. Streeting as you say unacceptable to the left. I'm not sure about Cooper, she has the talent but don't know if she'd be up to the task given all the infighting and backbiting. It's the hardest job in politics after all.

[leftieliberal]

May 8, 2022 0:23:44 GMT mercian said:

May 8, 2022 0:00:49 GMT EmCat said:

Have you seen the state of places (like USA) where they have voting machines?

There are documented cases where the machine was programmed to add in an extra vote for one candidate at random times (it was known in advance that it was likely to be a close race). As a result of these "extra" votes, that candidate did indeed win, by a margin slightly less than the number of ghost votes added in.

There are also documented cases where the file electronically sent to be added to the total tally has been tampered with.

It is harder to be fraudulent with paper ballot slips.

What someone here did mention (@laszlo ?) was that, instead of transporting all the ballot boxes to a centralised counting area, the boxes for each polling station were tallied at that place (presumably with appropriate observers to ensure fair play), and the results then sent onwards. That would speed up the process. Postal votes could still be counted centrally

Just because the Yanks create flaky insecure systems doesn't mean it can't be done properly. That's why I quoted 2 mill and not 2K. (Even at my age I could knock up something that more or less worked in a couple of weeks).  It sounds as though that might be what they did in USA but charged for a proper system.  There's a lot of overcharging and semi-corruption in public procurement in this country. 30 years ago I worked on a system as a contractor on a project for the NHS which never came to fruition.  It cost £100,000,000. My offer to do it for £20 million was ignored. It was pretty simple stuff, just a system for ordering stuff at ward level from central stocks rather than having little stores all over the place which were subject to pilfering. Computer graphics were limited in those days but all the management were impressed by was my animated logo as the introductory screen. Totally irrelevant to the purpose. I only did it because I was bored. They had dozens of contractors doing f-all useful stuff for months on end.
 Anyway, sorry for the rant, I just hate waste and corruption.  The point is it would be quite possible to create a secure user-friendly system for not very much.

The London Mayor and Assembly elections are counted by machine, although it is by the process of optical character reading of the paper ballots. In my Party we use an external ballot supplier (Mi-Voice) and around 90% of members vote online. The 10% of members who return paper ballots have them entered by HQ staff. As Mercian writes, we could very easily move to a secure user-friendly system. The one downside is once people realise how easy it is, they might start demanding referenda on everything (like Switzerland).

[alec]

steve - indeed I am. That poll showing mass support for mask wearing was conducted on March 22nd of this year, so really quite recent.

The critical point is that while many support wearing masks, they feel a social pressure not to. A few of the more sensible types, like me, refuse to succumb to such bewildering madness, and will continue to mask in certain situations for the good of others, and for my own protection, but the rest of you can go and risk new variants, long covid, and whatever else the next variant (on it's way already, take a look at South Africa and the US) if that's what floats your boat. In a few years time, the chances are that people like you will wonder what the f@ck you were doing, once the waves of diabetes, Alzheimers etc rip through you and your friends, and people like me will end up paying the costs.

If I'm wrong on that, do I really care that I took some absolutely harmless measures to protect myself from a potential threat that never actually materialised? No - of course I won't be sorry. Taking sensible precautions is what sane and sensible people do. I see it as the same as not driving round a blind bend on a quiet road on the wrong side of the white lines. Chances are I'll be fine, but it just needs one car coming the other way....I think the rest of you are just weird.

[Danny]

May 7, 2022 22:33:59 GMT alec said:

"Restrictions on gatherings

7. During the emergency period, no person may participate in a gathering in a public place of more than two people except—.

Surely this wasn't a public place? It was a private meeting?

[steve]

alec
Coincidentally I don't really care if an individual wishes to feel safer by wearing a mask while 99% of others around them don't.
The benefit from doing so is limited but it does as you say no harm.
Whether the majority ( source please) thought this in March or not it's blindingly obvious that the vast majority except when directed to do so aren't wearing masks.

Went on one of the rare ventures to our local last night around 100 people there not a mask in sight amongst clients or staff.

Your analogy with a road is flawed the chances of serious injury in these circumstances if to meet an oncoming vehicle are substantial, I know I've had to deal with the outcomes . The chances of suffering serious illness when meeting someone with covid , particularly if you are vaccinated are negligible. We all know that , it isn't weird.

I fear your focus on on covid has led you to lose a sense of proportion.

[Old Southendian]

May 8, 2022 1:12:19 GMT Mark said:

In fact, it would be piss simple...I could write a program to record and tally votes, including user confirmation, in something as rudimentary as Commodore 64 basic, in an hour tops.

The problems (not impossible to overcome, but, present challenges) lie in accountability.

There are procedures to ensure the paper votes are not tampered with / added to / lost...and there is a paper trail at the end, so votes can be re-counted.

How to do this via technology is, I think the biggest hurdle.

Agreed, it's the data entry that's the problem.  In something like duplicate bridge, the program sorts out the mathematics easily, which can be painful by hand, but you have to have a system where the results are transferred from reality to computer that is reliable and can't be tampered with.  Generally done in bridge by both sides keeping their own record, checking against each other, and an impartial manager handling the data entry.  Using paper ballots, what you'd have to do is have (at least) two people entering results independently (in the case of STV, they'd have to enter all preferences), cross-checking and correcting, then once the results are in, the several stage process would take less than a second rather than two days for multiple recounts.  All the effort would be in verifying the data entry, which is a surprisingly tricky problem.

Re: Cooper.  Yes, she's very good, it's one of the failings of the Corbyn era that she was pushed aside, but agree with jimjam, she might be too much associated with previous failures, and I think a new face might be needed for these times.  Lisa Nandy has a bit of the "down to earth" touch that may be needed for Labour to really reconnect.  But of course Starmer hasn't gone yet, this is all just idle speculation. 

Interesting in voting/STV terms how the results in NI came out.  In terms of votes, the manifestly Unionist parties got more first preference votes, in comparison to the Nationalist parties.  But because of the main 3-way split in Unionist (DUP, UUP, TUV) vs the 2-way Nationalist (SF, SDLP), they ended up with 35 each (25+9+1 and 27+8).  The rest was made up of 17 Alliance, 1 PUP and two Independents.  I'm guessing the PUP is not really Unionist/Nationalist aligned, it has more of a political left (far left?) stance, and I don't know anything about the Independents.  So pretty balanced in the end.

[steve]

alec
While it's true to say deaths in South Africa with or from covid have risen significantly in the last couple of weeks they are still at around 20 a day.
Th U.S. hasn't seen a significant increase in cases and deaths fell 19% last week.

Incidentally
Kindly don't be emotive " people like you" isn't appropriate I haven't described you as a covid obsessive Cassandra waiting for the next bad news real or imagined to point at and say I told you so.
Incidentally why the f**k do you think you have the exclusive right to concern about long term consequences from illnesses.

But I promise I won't point at you and say it was people like you who were instrumental in the effective shut down of preventative health care which will kill tens of thousands from delayed treatment and delayed the dementia diagnosis of my own mother for a year because her sheltered housing facility wouldn't let anyone in or out without isolating them for two weeks, now she barely remembers who we are .

Not your fault !

[hireton]

Continuity Vorbynistas actively helping the Tories in Durham according to Tory sources:

[caroline]

Very sad to see the media hype over the “beergate” story. The Tories have been pushing this for months and would never give up trying to prove to the electorate that all politicians are as bad as each other so to some extent it is better to get this dealt with now before the GE. Of course there is no equivalence to the repeated and blatant breach of covid rules and lying to Parliament by the Prime Minister but perceptions are everything in politics and unless this is fully investigated and dealt with now it will be another lie to sling into election campaigning whenever the next GE is.
I don’t think for one moment Starmer breached Covid laws for the many reasons other posters have cited. Sending out event rotas before campaign meetings are common practice in the LP , only key events are included and most people who are involved in high profile campaigns, as this by election was, will know that work doesn’t stop at 10p.m – it goes on 24 hours a day. Even when you are asleep you are dreaming of analysing canvas returns and strategies to use at the next public meeting!
I don’t agree with Moby that when people like Diane Abbot say that if Starmer does receive a FPN he will have to resign suggests we hate each other ……we don’t, we disagree on issues sometimes but most people in the LP on this issue would probably agree that a FPN would l put Starmer in a very difficult position and would probably mean a resignation. Speculation on who would replace him is a natural political instinct, one many of us are trying to avoid as we don’t think it will happen . Having said this if Starmer was forced to resign more pressure would be put on Johnson to do the same and Labour, unlike the Tories, are in the very fortunate position of having many excellent choices male and female, anyone of which would give someone like Lyn Truss a run for her money. If Labour wins the next election we have a ready made cabinet of competent politicians who will all get lots of media attention in any leadership contest. Whichever way it goes the Tories won’t win this one.

[ladyvalerie]

Wordle 323 2/6

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[pjw1961]

May 8, 2022 7:50:21 GMT steve said:

On Thursday Mayfair in central London with the most expensive property in the country voted in a Labour councillor for the first time in more than fifty years.

The nationalist insular anti European Spaffer regime seems to have no appeal to Londoners however rich or poor they are.

Perhaps it was lots of Russian oligarchs and their families angry at being sanctioned

[jimjam]

OS,

Re NI split, as you probably know every party has to self designate before the election and Sky News last night helpfully added up how many first preferences each designation received. This takes account of all the minor parties and independents.

It was Nationalist 40.8% and Unionist 40.6%, 18.6 non aligned.

[Deleted]

caroline

Excellent post.

[jimjam]

OS, it is also interesting that the socially illiberal (DUP) and Socially 'equivocal' SDLP and UUP vote shares dropped.

TUV did increase but by less than the DUP's fell.

SF and APNI are the 2 most socially progressive main parties and increased their first preferences.

Also, to repeat a comment I made yesterday, there appears to a surprising amount of SF-APNI and the other way first transfers which can only really be due to social policies.

Transferring to parties with the same designation then on to neutral and so on is still the main dynamic but not as overwhelming as in previous elections.

[catfuzz]

RE: Beergate - I’m not necessarily saying that they’re all as bad as each other, but now that the story has gained momentum, I believe the investigation should go ahead and prove either unequivocally that nothing illegal happened, or that there was a breach, and that fines and resignations occur.

Until the investigation is over, it’s just speculation and propaganda from both sides.

[kay9]

Caroline, Crofty

Agreed, an excellent post.
If Starmer resigned, then what would stop him standing again? i.e. a vote of confidence in his leadership (John Major once did something similar).
He might or might not win the resulting competition, but his conscience would be clear.
And what a signal to send to the Tories, and their leader!

[johntel]

May 8, 2022 7:50:17 GMT crossbat11 said:

A more general point about police investigations and the length of time they appear to take, particularly when politicians are involved. The Met investigation into the various Downing Street parties, for example. When did they start looking into them and taking evidence, for pity's sake? Months ago now, isn't it? I mean this isn't exactly Bloody Sunday or Grenfell Tower in terms of scale, import and complexity is it? Was there a a party, did it breach rules and who was there? That's about it, isn't it? What's with these ludicrous questionnaires too? Just talk to the key witnesses, surely??

You have to conclude that the police are being played and the delay often serves the politicians subject to the investigation. Politicians quite often like hiding in yonder long grass and for cans to be kicked down roads to more convenient and distant junctions.

And now we have the Durham Police and Beergate, the in depth forensic investigation likely, we are told, to run for many weeks. I suspect pizza boxes are being sent to laboratories as we speak to test for traces of Rayner's DNA.

Police work turned farce turned political show. Just get on with the bloody thing. A couple of days surely to decide whether these things broke rules and penalty notices need to be issued? The Downing Street investigation should have been completed months ago and Beergate should be tied up in days, new significant evidence or not.

The public, and those subject to the investigations too, are being very badly served by the police here.

Yes. I think the biggest problem the police have now is that they set a very low bar for giving a FPN in Rishi Sunak's case.

[alec]

steve - "Coincidentally I don't really care if an individual wishes to feel safer by wearing a mask while 99% of others around them don't.
The benefit from doing so is limited but it does as you say no harm."

Incorrect. The benefits of mask wearing for an individual are very substantial, and in many cases live changing. You are wrong on this.

"Kindly don't be emotive " people like you" isn't appropriate...".

I think it is. You are consistently downplaying the risks of covid, getting bogged down with an out of date focus on current death rates, which are no longer an effective means to measure harms.

I've read a lot of articles recently asking why so many people across so many countries now don't worry about covid and think it's all over, and the common reference of all of these is that I have learned that a well known aspect of risk perception in societies is the tendency of comfortable societies that have not suffered serious disruptions, violence, etc to sit back and accept damaging situations, thinking that it is inevitable and that nothing can be done. That's what we are doing, accepting things that should be prevented, because we assume our comfortable and safe existence will prevail. In these situations, it's well documented that the nihilistic inevitability mindset adopted by middle class decision makers means the negative impacts that are accepted affect the poor far more severely. In other societies that are more fragile, and where there is greater experience of major harms, actions tend to be more enthusiastically adopted.

It's a weakness that we have in our societies, as we wish to get back to 'doing things normally', when that normal is over.

[crossbat11]

caroline

In terms of putative Labour leader candidates, I thought the increasingly impressive Nandy did very well on the Raworth programme this morning. Raworth pressed her throughout the whole interview on the so called Beergate affair and she handled it very well, making the point that any moral or practical equivalence with the succession of Downing Street parties and subsequent prime ministerial lies, was ludicrous and the product of pro-Tory tabloid muckraking rather than public outrage.

She also evaded the clearly signalled elephant trap questions posed by Raworth and, rather cleverly I thought, at the same still managed to get in her prepared attack lines on the Tory Government's handling of the cost of living crisis. She spoke intelligent human too, which was as unusual for a politician as it was refreshing.

I did find it odd though that Raworth asked Nandy virtually nothing on the recent local election results or on the range of policy areas on which she is opposing the government. I understand why Beergate may have arisen, but for virtually the whole of the interview?

Probably not a Raworth decision, more an editorial one. Maybe Kuennsberg might actually be an improvement? Raworth looks desperately out of her depth and more and more like a front of house puppet. Perfectly likeable individual but a fish out of water. The BBC must and should do better.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

May 8, 2022 10:38:27 GMT crossbat11 said:

caroline

In terms of putative Labour leader candidates, I thought the increasingly impressive Nandy did very well on the Raworth programme this morning. Raworth pressed her throughout the whole interview on the so called Beergate affair and she handled it very well, making the point that any moral or practical equivalence with the succession of Downing Street parties and subsequent prime ministerial lies, was ludicrous and the product of pro-Tory tabloid muckraking rather than public outrage.

She also evaded the clearly signalled elephant trap questions posed by Raworth and, rather cleverly I thought, at the same still managed to get in her prepared attack lines on the Tory Government's handling of the cost of living crisis. She spoke intelligent human too, which was as unusual for a politician as it was refreshing.

I did find it odd though that Raworth asked Nandy virtually nothing on the recent local election results or on the range of policy areas on which she is opposing the government. I understand why Beergate may have arisen, but for virtually the whole of the interview?

Probably not a Raworth decision, more an editorial one. Maybe Kuennsberg might actually be an improvement? Raworth looks desperately out of her depth and more and more like a front of house puppet. Perfectly likeable individual but a fish out of water. The BBC must and should do better.

I think she also said that Angela Rayner had said KS should resign of he gets a FPN - I guess she meant Diane Abbott. Yes it was a poor interview with the BBC just following the Tory press obviously driven by the editors.

Personally I think if KS did go it would be to Labour's electoral benefit - fresh new leaders tends to go down well with the lectorate, and for Labour if it was a woman (Nandy, Rayner, Cooper or Reeves) I guess it would be a net benefit. Stepping back if he does get a FPN, I think he will resign, but what happens after that I don't know. This has all been very useful for the Johnson in deflecting from a poor  set of elections results, a pending crisis over NO as well as cost of living - the advantages of having a sympathetic media.

[pjw1961]

May 8, 2022 11:05:12 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

May 8, 2022 10:38:27 GMT crossbat11 said:

caroline


I did find it odd though that Raworth asked Nandy virtually nothing on the recent local election results or on the range of policy areas on which she is opposing the government. I understand why Beergate may have arisen, but for virtually the whole of the interview?

Probably not a Raworth decision, more an editorial one. Maybe Kuennsberg might actually be an improvement? Raworth looks desperately out of her depth and more and more like a front of house puppet. Perfectly likeable individual but a fish out of water. The BBC must and should do better.

I think she also said that Angela Rayner had said KS should resign of he gets a FPN - I guess she meant Diane Abbott. Yes it was a poor interview with the BBC just following the Tory press obviously driven by the editors.

Ref whether these are editorial decisions or those of the journalist/interviewer, it is worth recalling Noam Chomsky's point to Andrew Marr: 

Marr: “How can you know I’m self-censoring?”

Chomsky: “I’m not saying you’re self-censoring. I’m sure you believe everything you say. But what I’m saying is if you believed something different you wouldn’t be sitting where you’re sitting.”

[caroline]

May 8, 2022 10:29:29 GMT kay9 said:

Caroline, Crofty

Agreed, an excellent post.
If Starmer resigned, then what would stop him standing again? i.e. a vote of confidence in his leadership (John Major once did something similar).
He might or might not win the resulting competition, but his conscience would be clear.
And what a signal to send to the Tories, and their leader!

Thank you both.

If Starmer resigned he wouldn't restand for election for the leadership Kay because the problem would be the same. It is not an issue of Starmers conscience, it is the effect it is having on the LP which is much more important than an individuals ego. This may not be fair but nothing is in politics.

I agree with Crossbat that Nandy is doing well at the moment and could one day be leader but not just yet I hope. For all his faults and lack of charisma I do think Starmer would make an excellent PM. I also think that as the electorate gets used to him they may not "love" him but the contrast between him and Johnson will eventually shine through.

I spoke to loads of voters during the council elections and got the feeling that Starmer has a neutral impact at the moment.....almost an unknown, this may not be good but it is not bad either, he may still have two years to make his mark. The good thing about Starmer is there is little "dirt" on him for the media to dig up....most politicians have skeletons of some sort in their cupboard, any in Starmers closet would have been exposed by now. I don't care too much who the leader of the LP is, it is the policies that I care about, and despite the perception of some that we don't have any we have loads. What is needed is a good team on the front bench to keep hammering away at the policies and get away from the personality stuff. At the moment the key policy being pushed is the windfall tax on energy companies and one policy at a time, which will eventually be pinched by the Tories, is enough for the moment when media attention is all on the cost of living crisis and personality politics.  Labour must be seen to be setting the agenda then the agenda can be expanded. Labour has been working on the agenda for the next manifesto for the  past few years and most of this is on the LP website. 

[alec]

Sobering, but excellent analysis here of the general drift of Conservative economic policy - www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/08/the-economy-is-collapsing-yet-i-cant-recall-a-government-so-devoid-of-a-plan

"Brexit Tories neither understand modern capitalism nor how to manage it."

Along with the general sense of uselessness, Brexit is creating a set of conditions that is gradually degrading the UK's competitive capabilities, and the necessary steps needed to mitigate that decline are ignored because this government cannot admit that it's Brexit deal is a mistake.

"Yet presiding over this is a directionless government, fiercely protected by its press, whose sole purpose has become maintaining the prime minister in office."

[alec]

caroline - very good post.

lululemonmustdobetter - I agree, regarding a Starmer departure offering a good chance for Labour. One of the modern problems for political parties is that following defeat, the leaders now resign immediately, leaving their successor to last perhaps 5 years before an election, plenty of time for the electorate to become bored.

It also leaves the new leader with the issue of 'cleansing' the party, from whatever led to the loss. That creates internal enemies, such as those that dogged Cameron on the right, and Starmer with the Corbynistas. I don't think it's credible any longer for heavily defeated leaders to stay in post, but maybe a short term (2 year) interim leader, charged with establishing what went wrong and settling the party, leading to a new permanent position with sufficient time to establish a clear direction and policy platform might be a more practical way to proceed?

[alec]

steve - BTW - I meant to add on SA covid situation: they recorded 8,700 new cases yesterday with a test positivity rate of over 31%, which is a sure sign that it's romping along. It is mainly the new Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants, which while still officially sub variants, are as distinct from Ba.1 as Omicron was from Delta.

We are on a merry-go-round, and will continue to be so for as long as it takes for society to understand that simple measures to contain transmission, and thus slow the production of new variants, is the only way we're going to get back to a new normal.

[jib]

May 8, 2022 12:06:33 GMT alec said:

steve - BTW - I meant to add on SA covid situation: they recorded 8,700 new cases yesterday with a test positivity rate of over 31%, which is a sure sign that it's romping along. It is mainly the new Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants, which while still officially sub variants, are as distinct from Ba.1 as Omicron was from Delta.

We are on a merry-go-round, and will continue to be so for as long as it takes for society to understand that simple measures to contain transmission, and thus slow the production of new variants, is the only way we're going to get back to a new normal.

Well said Alec


I'm afraid that anyone who follows Johnson and just hopes COVID has gone away is simply delusional. It continues to have a devastating impact on many and severe health impacts.

I read in the paper that there is greater focus on developing vaccines that reduce transmission, a good move if it's feasible.

[pete]

May 8, 2022 8:13:52 GMT neilj said:

May 8, 2022 7:28:55 GMT steve said:

pete
Agreed but on the remote chance we're wrong and he gets a fpn he should resign as leader forthwith.
Would make the convict in number 10 look even more culpable and arrogant if he didn't follow.

I agree and would go further. I don't believe Starmer broke the regs but he has to come out fighting now. He should make a statement to the effect that he is absolutely certain he hasn't broken any laws, but if he is given a FPT he will resign as leader immediately

This will take pressure off him and put it back on Johnson. In the unlikely event he's given a FPT it is likely he would have to go anyway as the pressure to do do will be immense, so he's nothing to lose by taking the moral high ground.

And if gets one but has done nothing wrong? Its obvious the police are only re-investigating to help the Tory party, look at the  timing. 

[RAF]

Re: NI Protocol

I heard Jeffrey Donaldson saying the other day that the DUP will not nominate a Deputy First Minister until there is substsntial change to the NI Protocol.

The problem with this is that the NI Protocol is simply there to enable Brexit whilst allowing (a) GB to be outside the EU Customs Union and (b) no physical customs or atandards checks taking place on tbe land border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic (the UK/EU border).

Removing the NI Protocol would lead to all customs and standard checks taking place at rhe land border. So that isn't an option.

Also the DUP position is disingenous. The NI Protocol does not seek to prevent tbe free flow of goods (customs free) between GB and NI. It merely needs to ensure that all goods passing between GB and RoI (and destimed for RoI) via NI comply with EU customs and standards requirements. If the DUP does not want rgese checks to take place at the land border, and also oppose the current sea border checks, they are essentially asking for the NI Protocol to be ripped up entirely, which is not a valid option.


There is an alternative. Expanding the white list of goods destined only for NI that do not need to be checked at the sea border. But as the UK Government and DUP's real aim is no NI Protocol at all, this rather simple taslml has been unecessarily delayed and delayed again.