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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 23:36:09 GMT
I voted Cooper in 2015 but I think her time for being leader has passed now. Reeves v Nandy likely. Blimey, there isn’t a vacancy at the moment! “Calma” - as they say in Italy… |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 23:47:09 GMT
@jimjam
Unsurprisingly, the BelTel is more accurate than the BBC!
Count12 has SDLP on 8605.45 and DUP on 4712.58 with UUP on 4515.19
Whether they do Count 13 to allocate the SDLP surplus and the UUP transfers, just to tidy things up I don't know. But we do have a final set of results before the DUP goes off in a huff, and Downing St needs to make some kind of decision - or perhaps just have a party!
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Post by EmCat on May 8, 2022 0:00:49 GMT
Which leads on to a larger point - why do we still use such an antiquated method for voting? I understand that not everyone has access to, or the ability to use smartphones and the like, but at least polling stations could have touch-screen terminals similar to ATMs couldn't they? I could write some software to do it for a couple of million. I'd have to get a quote from my mate for the hardware. 🙂 Have you seen the state of places (like USA) where they have voting machines? There are documented cases where the machine was programmed to add in an extra vote for one candidate at random times (it was known in advance that it was likely to be a close race). As a result of these "extra" votes, that candidate did indeed win, by a margin slightly less than the number of ghost votes added in. There are also documented cases where the file electronically sent to be added to the total tally has been tampered with. It is harder to be fraudulent with paper ballot slips. What someone here did mention (@laszlo ?) was that, instead of transporting all the ballot boxes to a centralised counting area, the boxes for each polling station were tallied at that place (presumably with appropriate observers to ensure fair play), and the results then sent onwards. That would speed up the process. Postal votes could still be counted centrally |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 8, 2022 0:03:12 GMT
"a new Panelbase/Sunday Times poll suggests support for #indyref2 within five years has risen to 55%" says Sunday Times Scotland.
No doubt we'll get more detail tomorrow.
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Post by mercian on May 8, 2022 0:23:44 GMT
Which leads on to a larger point - why do we still use such an antiquated method for voting? I understand that not everyone has access to, or the ability to use smartphones and the like, but at least polling stations could have touch-screen terminals similar to ATMs couldn't they? I could write some software to do it for a couple of million. I'd have to get a quote from my mate for the hardware. 🙂 Have you seen the state of places (like USA) where they have voting machines? There are documented cases where the machine was programmed to add in an extra vote for one candidate at random times (it was known in advance that it was likely to be a close race). As a result of these "extra" votes, that candidate did indeed win, by a margin slightly less than the number of ghost votes added in. There are also documented cases where the file electronically sent to be added to the total tally has been tampered with. It is harder to be fraudulent with paper ballot slips. What someone here did mention (@laszlo ?) was that, instead of transporting all the ballot boxes to a centralised counting area, the boxes for each polling station were tallied at that place (presumably with appropriate observers to ensure fair play), and the results then sent onwards. That would speed up the process. Postal votes could still be counted centrally Just because the Yanks create flaky insecure systems doesn't mean it can't be done properly. That's why I quoted 2 mill and not 2K. (Even at my age I could knock up something that more or less worked in a couple of weeks). It sounds as though that might be what they did in USA but charged for a proper system. There's a lot of overcharging and semi-corruption in public procurement in this country. 30 years ago I worked on a system as a contractor on a project for the NHS which never came to fruition. It cost £100,000,000. My offer to do it for £20 million was ignored. It was pretty simple stuff, just a system for ordering stuff at ward level from central stocks rather than having little stores all over the place which were subject to pilfering. Computer graphics were limited in those days but all the management were impressed by was my animated logo as the introductory screen. Totally irrelevant to the purpose. I only did it because I was bored. They had dozens of contractors doing f-all useful stuff for months on end. Anyway, sorry for the rant, I just hate waste and corruption. The point is it would be quite possible to create a secure user-friendly system for not very much. |
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Post by Mark on May 8, 2022 0:45:50 GMT
Re-a possible labour leadership contest, I'd like to see Clive Lewis get it.
He's a good speaker, articulate and has a knack of making a labour viewpoint sound like common sense.
He seems comfortable in his own skin and good at taking the arguments to the tories.
Politically, he's centre left, so, not as left as Corbyn, but, not as centrist as Starmer, so could stop any left-Labour drift to the Greens while not scaring soft tories.
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Post by mercian on May 8, 2022 0:57:12 GMT
Re-a possible labour leadership contest, I'd like to see Clive Lewis get it. He's a good speaker, articulate and has a knack of making a labour viewpoint sound like common sense. That's quite an achievement! 🤣 |
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Post by Mark on May 8, 2022 1:12:19 GMT
mercian - Speaking as someone with a rudimentary knowledge of programming (Computer Studies HND, plus designing my own, now defunct, website, plus a few CSS userstyles for Facebook), I can agree that a voting program wouldn't be that difficult. In fact, it would be piss simple...I could write a program to record and tally votes, including user confirmation, in something as rudimentary as Commodore 64 basic, in an hour tops. The problems (not impossible to overcome, but, present challenges) lie in accountability. There are procedures to ensure the paper votes are not tampered with / added to / lost...and there is a paper trail at the end, so votes can be re-counted. How to do this via technology is, I think the biggest hurdle.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 8, 2022 5:13:21 GMT
I don't think there will be a leadership competition, but in the unlikely event there was I have been impressed with Wes Streeting's performance in recent months.
When interviewed always seems on top of his brief snd gives a competent and confident performance.
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Post by moby on May 8, 2022 5:34:51 GMT
Amusing to see the radical loc's on here lapping up the Murdoch and Rothermere allegations aided and abetted by Continuity Corbynistas who would rather see a Tory government than one led by a terrible "centrist". What chance of a Labour Govmt when people in your own party hate you more than the opposition. I heard Diane Abbott on the radio earlier sounding quite chippy, perhaps it was the London election results I thought but no true to type she was talking about how Starmer will have to go if he gets a FPN. |
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Post by moby on May 8, 2022 5:59:16 GMT
The Labour defense has been that it was not pre-planned, unlike the dining street parties. The argument is the team had a long day campaigning, found late in the evening that no pubs or restaurants were open and the hotel was not serving food and so ordered a takeaway. This would be OK under the rules as they then existed (being clearly a work related meal break). What may be even more damning is that Starmer clearly said it was a break for a meal and they went back to work afterwards. The memo shown on the news clearly seems to show (assuming it's genuine) that not only was it pre-planned, but was also planned at the END of the day from 20.40 to 22.00 with nothing planned afterwards. In other words, completely contradicting Starmers "explanation". Personally, I can't get excited over what happened in itself, but if proven (and even if the police take no action) it does show Starmer clearly lying. (They even showed again the relevant clip of Starmer saying about "returning to work afterwards" on the news.) Even that may not be the end of the world, but seen against Starmer's "holier than thou" attacks on Boris, he's inevitably opening himself up to "hypocrite" claims, even if not a resigning matter he will likely be permanently weakened. Breaching the guidelines by failing to go back to work after a meal when Starmer said they had done so at one work event is hardly the same as the serial lying to parliament about behaviour at multiple parties, many of which we now know were not work oriented in any way. With these things it's the pattern of behaviour and the pervading culture that matters. Let's see what the Gray report says about that. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 6:36:05 GMT
I'm struggling to see how the accusations against Starmer fit into a legal case for breaking the law, to be honest, and I actually think the legal case against the 'student' who made the film is likely to be far stronger. Unless they had good cause to be outside the building at that time, then they were clearly breaking the law.
It's messy, for sure, and a distraction, but I rather think that's the point. It is in a category difference to the goings on at No 10, that's for sure.
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Post by hireton on May 8, 2022 6:48:45 GMT
Northern England voting in the local elections:
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Post by pete on May 8, 2022 7:00:57 GMT
The Labour defense has been that it was not pre-planned, unlike the dining street parties. The argument is the team had a long day campaigning, found late in the evening that no pubs or restaurants were open and the hotel was not serving food and so ordered a takeaway. This would be OK under the rules as they then existed (being clearly a work related meal break). What may be even more damning is that Starmer clearly said it was a break for a meal and they went back to work afterwards. The memo shown on the news clearly seems to show (assuming it's genuine) that not only was it pre-planned, but was also planned at the END of the day from 20.40 to 22.00 with nothing planned afterwards. In other words, completely contradicting Starmers "explanation". Personally, I can't get excited over what happened in itself, but if proven (and even if the police take no action) it does show Starmer clearly lying. (They even showed again the relevant clip of Starmer saying about "returning to work afterwards" on the news.) Even that may not be the end of the world, but seen against Starmer's "holier than thou" attacks on Boris, he's inevitably opening himself up to "hypocrite" claims, even if not a resigning matter he will likely be permanently weakened. Desperation or what? |
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Post by pete on May 8, 2022 7:02:20 GMT
I voted Cooper in 2015 but I think her time for being leader has passed now. Reeves v Nandy likely. You're writing as if Starmer has gone. He's done nothing wrong and is going nowhere. |
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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2022 7:06:26 GMT
Fair point Pete, I should have said 'would be' not 'likely'
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 7:14:33 GMT
@mark
Clive Lewis would be an excellent choice .I would prefer Yvette Cooper ( voted for her in 2015) Or Andy Burnham if he can be brought back to Westminster.
But then I would say that because I'm a wishy washy liberal!
I suspect the pick if it came to it,which it almost certainly won't, could well be Wes Streeting, good communicator, broad church , suitably working class background boy made good council flat , comprehensive, then Cambridge.
Streeting would be the first ( openly) gay leader of the Labour party.
A bit of a God botherer but no one's perfect.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2022 7:23:47 GMT
I have been frustrated by pundits and politicians from both main political parties and from their sides of the party using their own biases and providing opinion from these biases. For example Labour have either done very well from the disasters of Corbyn, or these small increases in seats in these Local Elections are fine as in 2018 Labour did pretty well under Corbyn. Surely it is not difficult from pundits looking at these factual votes and making a evidence driven viewpoint. I think it's a bit harder than you suggest. The strongest factor is total apathy in that most people took no part in the votes whatsoever and didn't care who was elected. Or at least were convinced their vote would make no difference. At least 3/4 and maybe 4/5 of those eligible to vote didn't bother. Millions never bother to register at all. If most people don't care and dont vote then the outcome depends on the small number who will still vote. in this case I agree with you the change seems mostly to have been disaffected Tories. Although calling them Tories may well be to imply something which was never true. They voted tory last time, but that does not imply any loyalty to or ownership by the party. Opinion polling doesn't ask or try to determine how deeply attached voters are to a party. It's something I see as a mistake which could badly harm their results. I suspect polling panels risk significant error because they are made up of disproportionately committed people. When an issue arises such as brexit or partygate which cuts across party lines, those panels are too committed to parties with more loyalty than actual voters. The most credible interpretation is that in as much as the leader influences the outcome, replacing Corbyn with Starmer made no difference to the attractiveness of labour. Johnson pushed away voters in droves to all destinations, at least compared to the past. Unfortunately none of that really says whether either Starmer or Johnson is a net asset because the motives of those voting that party are so opaque and loosely linked to actual belief in the party they voted for. Despite pushing away some now Johnson might still be a net plus compared to any replacement. Similarly Corbyn obviously motivated new supporters, and I dont see evidence here Starmer has done better. Plus Starmer has had less internal opposition to contend with, so it's perfectly possible Corbyn was always intrinsically the better vote magnet. Plus of course some might have voted because they liked or disliked local council performance. Brexit happened despite the considered opinions of most experienced leaders of the UK because no one trusted those leaders. Because indeed the more of them said we should stay in, the more voters chose the opposite because they had never in their lives experienced honesty from politicians and would never take their advice. Not seen evidence green is dissillusioned labour, but the con-lib trend was there well before 2010. Johnson has undone what Cameron did to libs. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 7:25:49 GMT
Meanwhile, Ukraine:
Every now and then some realism creeps onto Russian state media. This clip is quite sobering for Russian viewers, with an analyst describing how mobilisation wouldn't help them, largely due to time delays and the fact that Russian reserves are old fashioned and outdated, and they are up against much superior Nato grade weapons. For Russian viewers, fed on a diet of Russian invincibility and modern power, this is going to be painful.
In terms of the conduct of the war, Ukraine has been absolutely hammering Snake Island, the Ukrainian island close to Odessa now held by Russia. In recent days in that vicinity they have sunk a frigate, two small Raptor class coastal patrol vessels and a small landing craft, all via drone or anti ship missile strikes (in the case of the frigate), along with the destruction of a SAM anti aircraft battery and a helicopter disembarking troops, both in drone strikes, along with an air attack by two fighter bombers that has effectively destroyed the remaining buildings on the island.
It's clear that Russia lacks air superiority along the western part of the Ukrainian coastline, and this seems like a concerted attempt by Ukraine to prevent any chance of Russian seaborne aggression against Odessa. It has also coincided with Russian attempts to inflame tensions in Tranistria along Ukraine's western border.
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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2022 7:25:55 GMT
Notwithstanding Pete's post about us jumping the gun I can say that both Streeting and Lewis are extremely unlikely.
The former would be unacceptable to the those on the left who are giving Starmer the benefit of the doubt and many moderates recognise this.
Maybe in 10 years, leader after next when time has healed etc.
Lewis is simply not liked being seen as arrogant and full of himself and also he has too much remain baggage.
Before anyone suggests anything this is not subconscious bias
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 7:28:55 GMT
pete Agreed but on the remote chance we're wrong and he gets a fpn he should resign as leader forthwith. Would make the convict in number 10 look even more culpable and arrogant if he didn't follow.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 7:35:57 GMT
@jimjam
Not sure about the baggage thing being a regional journalist for the BBC maybe questionable but compensated for by his three month tour as an infantry officer in Afghanistan.
He's from the opposite end of the party to me but I find him coherent and engaging. Agree he can appear a tad self satisfied.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2022 7:44:41 GMT
I think most sensible people will be able to tell the difference between one mainly working event and parties, but the whole thing may do enough to muddy the waters and "all the same" for those who want to think this. I think most sensible people dont believe these regulations did any good. It's really stupid to say people who have been together all day should not also eat together. That applies to Johnson as much as Starmer. What people will hate is having obeyed rules or been fined for breaking them when the politicians ignored them. Sure the politicians had all the evidence the rules were pointless and knew it but they maintained the fiction all this was doing some good. It wasnt, but the worst sin now is to admit that our whole lockdown policy was based on bad science. Both parties agreed this policy which wasted vast amounts of public money, bankrupted some and made others rich. None of which is fair or sound government worthy of a vote. Both parties are held up by the system, not because anyone believes in them. Our system of government is destroying itself because it was designed to deliver clear cut choices while maintaining a ruling elite. We no longer believe in elites. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 7:45:39 GMT
On the groundwar in Ukraine, the Ukrainian advance around Kharkiv is now significant, and the ISW believe that they are likely to be able to push Russian forces back to the border. Russia has now started to blow up bridges, which armies only do when they are in retreat. There are reports of a new Ukrainian counter offensive further south, towards Izyum. If this is confirmed and develops, then it would be the end of Russia's encirclement strategy in the Donbas and would probably then move quickly towards a situation where Russia is struggling to defend it's own positions within the occupied territory. In this theatre, it really does now appear that the worm has turned and the Russians are being shunted out, as they were around Kyiv.
In the south, there are multiple reports that Russia is going to declare Kherson as a 'People's Republic' as they did in the eastern occupied districts in 2014. There is a rapid program of Rusification underway, although there is civil resistance along with partisan guerilla warfare in parts of the region. Ukraine has made some small advances around Kherson itself, but progress in not as dramatic as in the Kharkiv area.
All in all, Russia is really on the back foot now and there seems to be few options to reverse that. Putin's best bet is to declare victory tomorrow, convince the Russian public that they've won something and that it was worth it, and then f@ck off home before he loses the rest of his army. I don't think this is a choice he is likely to make.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2022 7:50:17 GMT
A more general point about police investigations and the length of time they appear to take, particularly when politicians are involved. The Met investigation into the various Downing Street parties, for example. When did they start looking into them and taking evidence, for pity's sake? Months ago now, isn't it? I mean this isn't exactly Bloody Sunday or Grenfell Tower in terms of scale, import and complexity is it? Was there a a party, did it breach rules and who was there? That's about it, isn't it? What's with these ludicrous questionnaires too? Just talk to the key witnesses, surely??
You have to conclude that the police are being played and the delay often serves the politicians subject to the investigation. Politicians quite often like hiding in yonder long grass and for cans to be kicked down roads to more convenient and distant junctions.
And now we have the Durham Police and Beergate, the in depth forensic investigation likely, we are told, to run for many weeks. I suspect pizza boxes are being sent to laboratories as we speak to test for traces of Rayner's DNA.
Police work turned farce turned political show. Just get on with the bloody thing. A couple of days surely to decide whether these things broke rules and penalty notices need to be issued? The Downing Street investigation should have been completed months ago and Beergate should be tied up in days, new significant evidence or not.
The public, and those subject to the investigations too, are being very badly served by the police here.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 7:50:21 GMT
On Thursday Mayfair in central London with the most expensive property in the country voted in a Labour councillor for the first time in more than fifty years.
The nationalist insular anti European Spaffer regime seems to have no appeal to Londoners however rich or poor they are.
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Post by alec on May 8, 2022 7:51:01 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 7:56:54 GMT
crossbat11Some of the new significant evidence appeared to have come from a delivery driver who said as reported in the Mail delivered food for thirty people , the Mail lept on this as evidence for a party but weren't so loquacious when the same person said he had made a mistake and it was for ten to fifteen, ie the number of people working in the office. Odd that you would have thought they would want to be accurate in their reporting, said nobody ever.
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Post by hireton on May 8, 2022 7:58:08 GMT
More on so called Beergate showing that the Times is now simply the Daily Mail for the more fastidious:
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2022 8:00:56 GMT
alec I hope you aren't suggesting most people still support mask wearing, venturing out of your home would disillusion you of that notion. I think the issue with the government's law breaking isn't how reasonable the law was it's the hypocrisy of their breaking their own laws while demanding compliance from everyone else.
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