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Post by Old Southendian on May 7, 2022 21:16:33 GMT
Thanks for that link, wish I'd seen that sooner. Really nice way of displaying the complexities of the system and seeing what's going on.
My two cent's worth on a couple of subjects.
Starmer. I wouldn't be surprised if he resigned if found to have really done something wrong, and I agree with others that this might be a good thing for the Labour party. Having seen more of her now, I quite like the idea of Lisa Nandy as leader, seems like the right job for her. And at some point, Starmer will get back into the shadow cabinet (after a decent pause) in a serious role which would probably suit his skills better.
Tory position. I'm sure many others have said it, but my feeling is they're in danger of repeating the mistake of Labour under Blair, that of forgetting their main voter base. I know there's been a lot of discussion of how Corbyn did/didn't ruin Labour, but I still feel the rot set in under Blair where many of the Labour heartlands started to drift away. Blair hung on in there, so can claim electoral brilliance, but it set the party on a course to electoral defeat for some time, and they're (maybe) only just recovering now. I can see the possibility of the Torys doing that now with their heartlands, and while they may still hold up enough in the next GE, the course is downwards drift unless they find some way to shift opinion back their way. It's going to be difficult to pull that rabbit out of the hat with the current financial climate.
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Post by shevii on May 7, 2022 21:16:58 GMT
I remember that one! They did take it down quickly though once they were told but yes they did print something which wasn't true and not properly researched. They do it less than many outlets though and don't try to double down like Laura K might to. |
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Post by shevii on May 7, 2022 21:22:29 GMT
First ward declared in Croydon and it was a split ward and remains a split ward with one Lab and one Con. Maybe a glimmer of hope for Labour here as you'd assume if Tories were going to make gains they'd do it in the split ward unless there's a personal vote going on.
Edit- Lab have big majorities in nearly every ward they are defending and first two declarations show Lab 6 and 9 points down but Tories also down a fair bit on mostly two horse races, so if that pattern continues then I think Lab will hold the council unless some wards have been heavily targeted by LD and Greens who are both up on the first two results but will need huge swings to take any wards.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 21:38:05 GMT
In Foyle, at the start of Count 11 the votes for each remaining candidate (including transfers) were
DUP 4655.6
SDLP 4432.3
UUP 4283.0
PBP 4033.0
At a guess, few of the PBP transfers will go to DUP or UUP, so SDLP might pick up enough to get elected in this round. If not, then the UUP candidate likely to be the next eliminated and one of DUP or SDLP gets elected in the next round.
I have no idea what happens if there are insufficient transfer votes available for the final MLA to reach the requires quota!
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Post by RAF on May 7, 2022 21:41:59 GMT
Nothing so far in the public domain proves any kind of liability on the part of Starmer for breaches of the Coronavirus Regulations; let alone to the required criminal standard. You could say the same about Rishi Sunak, but he got a fine. Well yes, but only as it later transpired that evidence not in the public domain (photos) proved that he had attended a birthday party. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 21:46:47 GMT
Anent "Beergate" (presumably "Currygate" had been used already in John Major's time)
Regardless of the focus on food and booze, was the meeting itself within Covid guidelines? Bringing together a disparate group of people in a work meeting was normally done by Zoom at that time.
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Post by RAF on May 7, 2022 21:51:34 GMT
Anent "Beergate" (presumably "Currygate" had been used already in John Major's time)
Regardless of the focus on food and booze, was the meeting itself within Covid guidelines? Bringing together a disparate group of people in a work meeting was normally done by Zoom at that time. Yeah there was an exception for campaigning in the Regs. |
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 21:54:10 GMT
ON, SDLP nailed on for the first (4th of 5) when PBP drop out and the question is if UUP can possibly catch DUP.
In fact Sinead M'Claughlin for the SDLP is now on over 7000 as the other SDLP candidate has dropped out.
Means when she gets more of PBP than the others she will exceed the quota comfortably.
All depends then if SDLP voters (including the PBP ones now with the SDLP) vote in enough numbers for UUP as many will not carry on ranking beyond to 3rd or even 4th preferences.(Even 5th as there could a meaningless APNI or SF, already elected, step).
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 21:56:39 GMT
Chris, I saw the Trasher 35/33 yet John Curtis for the BBC has 35/30.
Maybe one of them is only talking about England?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 22:03:39 GMT
Now on to Count 12 in Foyle - PBP eliminated, but SDLP 320.5 votes short of the quota!
UUP got additional transfers of 42.8 from PBP while DUP got 29.8.
Now to see how many transfers are available from UUP, and where they go.
FPTP counting is such a bore in comparison.
EDIT : @jimjam I suspect you have never been to an STV count!
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 22:03:39 GMT
ON - when only 2 candidates left if neither reach the quota the top one is elected.
As you will know but for the benefit of others this occurs as some voters do not rank and in effect waste a proportion (or all if they are a bottom drop out) of their vote.
In this context the claim that under STV all votes count the same is inaccurate, although tbf the %age wasted will be small in most cases.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 7, 2022 22:06:42 GMT
Chris, I saw the Trasher 35/33 yet John Curtis for the BBC has 35/30. Maybe one of them is only talking about England? The reality is that forecasting national vote shares is an inexact science and, in my opinion, one not of much use. Local elections have their own dynamics that mess with the attempt. For example, I suspect that tactical voting in a GE would direct some Green and Lib Dem votes to Labour and Labour votes to Lib Dem. Independents likewise complicate the picture. Also scenarios like that in Tower Hamlets are unlikely to replay in a GE. Then, of course, there is turnout, which will be at least double in a GE. All in all, I don't take much notice of the calculation, although I do think the actual election results matter in terms of momentum, party morale, activist base, good/bad publicity, etc. |
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2022 22:10:21 GMT
Last ongoing count in NI is in Foyle - 2 out of the remaining candidates (DUP, UUP, SDLP, PBP) will make up the final numbers. The Belfast Telegraph article has updates, and a neat visual way of showing the transfers (both excess for candidates elected and reallocation for candidates eliminated) elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-assembly-election-2022/foyleAs you say, very good way to display the results and it helped me understand the STV system better. I didn't know about quotas before. |
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 22:14:09 GMT
ON, My information may be incorrect but I have seen a table with SDLP on 7400ish before PBP eliminated.
The question is will there be enough of an excess once the SDLP elected for the UUP to jump the DUP; and of course the advantage needs to a decent %age margin as well.
NB) almost certain that the DUP or UUP 5th MLA elected will not reach the quota.
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Post by alec on May 7, 2022 22:16:27 GMT
hireton and @various - re poll shares and benchmarks: I'm surprised no on on here has done this already, but the analysis showing Lab +0.8% and Con -0.4% on 2018 does, as you say, have to be placed in perspective of the fact that in 2018, Labour held the Red Wall and had a decent night in the locals. From here - researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8749/CBP-8749.pdf we can dig out the NE England votes shares from the 2019 election, which really is the benchmark against which we need to be measuring, because that is what will determine who forms the next government. So against the 2019 totals, we get: Labour 47.6% (+5.0%) Conservative 22.4% (-15.9%) Lib Dem 13.9% (+7.1%) Green 9.0% (+6.6%) In 2019 the Brexit Party secured 8.1% of the NE vote and others got 2.1%. Yes, these are local elections, so it isn't necessarily sensible to read too much from these to a GE, but if we are talking strictly vote shares against the GE benchmark, the Conservatives results look dire.
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2022 22:21:36 GMT
Now on to Count 12 in Foyle - PBP eliminated, but SDLP 320.5 votes short of the quota!
UUP got additional transfers of 42.8 from PBP while DUP got 29.8.
Now to see how many transfers are available from UUP, and where they go.
FPTP counting is such a bore in comparison.
EDIT : @jimjam I suspect you have never been to an STV count! On the NI STV voting, I've just realised that there's something I still don't get - where do these fractions of a vote come from? |
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 22:31:11 GMT
Pete,
Re fractions under STV.
If the quota is 80 and a candidate gets 100 votes they have received 20 more than they need.
In order for that candidates voters to have cast a full vote the 100 votes are redistributed to the next preferences but only so they reach 20 votes in total.
So the total vote does not exceed 100 each transferred vote only counts as 20/100 or .2 of a vote.
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Post by RAF on May 7, 2022 22:32:18 GMT
Now on to Count 12 in Foyle - PBP eliminated, but SDLP 320.5 votes short of the quota!
UUP got additional transfers of 42.8 from PBP while DUP got 29.8.
Now to see how many transfers are available from UUP, and where they go.
FPTP counting is such a bore in comparison.
EDIT : @jimjam I suspect you have never been to an STV count! On the NI STV voting, I've just realised that there's something I still don't get - where do these fractions of a vote come from? Others will know better but they could be using the Wright system for distributing the surplus votes: "Wright The Wright system is a reiterative linear counting process where on each candidate's exclusion the quota is reset and the votes recounted, distributing votes according to the voters' nominated order of preference, excluding candidates removed from the count as if they had not been nominated. For each successful candidate that exceeds the quota threshold, calculate the ratio of that candidate's surplus votes (i.e., the excess over the quota) divided by the total number of votes for that candidate, including the value of previous transfers. Transfer that candidate's votes to each voter's next preferred hopeful. Increase the recipient's vote tally by the product of the ratio and the ballot's value as the previous transfer (1 for the initial count.) Every preference continues to count until the choices on that ballot have been exhausted or the election is complete. Its main disadvantage is that given large numbers of votes, candidates and/or seats, counting is administratively burdensome for a manual count due to the number of interactions. This is not the case with the use of computerised distribution of preference votes." (Source: Wikipedia) |
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Post by alec on May 7, 2022 22:33:59 GMT
From the The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020:
"Further restrictions and closures during the emergency period
(7) A person who is responsible for a community centre must ensure that, during the emergency period, the community centre is closed except where it is used to provide essential voluntary activities....."
"Restrictions on movement
6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.
(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—.....
(f)to travel for the purposes of work or to provide voluntary or charitable services, where it is not reasonably possible for that person to work, or to provide those services, from the place where they are living;"
"Restrictions on gatherings
7. During the emergency period, no person may participate in a gathering in a public place of more than two people except—....
(b)where the gathering is essential for work purposes..."
And -
"The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings in a Relevant Place) (England) Regulations 2020
Approved by both Houses of Parliament
Made
at 9.00 a.m. on 23rd July 2020
Laid before Parliament
at 1.15 p.m. on 23rd July 2020
Coming into force
24th July 2020..."
Note the dates.
So, the regulations at that time did not require face masks to be worn in indoor areas, the centre hosting the Labour staff could legally open, there were no restrictions on travel for necessary work purposes, and gatherings were permitted for essential work purposes.
On the basis of the actual laws, it looks like it's going to come down to how you interpret people's behaviour at the gathering and whether you consider the gathering was essential. For a political party meeting to plan and deliver an election campaign, I think it's starting to stretch it a bit to claim that a takeaway meal for a few workers when there were no other options for food represents a resigning breach of the covid regulations, but I'm content to let the Durham Constabulary do their work.
Meanwhile, the PM has actually broken the covid laws, at least once, and probably several more times.
As ever in politics, perspective is in short supply.
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 22:35:03 GMT
ON, I have run an STV election and know what happens when quotas are not reached at the end and answered your question about it.
I think you need to check across as it appears to me that you are misreading the way the table is set out mistakenly thinking the latest eliminated candidates vote has already been transferred when in fact that is the step in progress.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2022 22:37:38 GMT
oldnatIf Starmer and his team were on the road which they were ( allowed) and were engaged in political campaign activity ( allowed) and restaurants and hotel kitchens were closed ( which they were) why would they be on zoom? And how would that get them something to eat?
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 22:39:55 GMT
ON, by the way my info is direct from the count ahead of the Belfast Telegraph from a family member in the SDLP.
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2022 22:42:44 GMT
RAF and @jimjam Thanks for the explanations, I think! I agree with the end of RAF's quote - it's better to use computers. Which leads on to a larger point - why do we still use such an antiquated method for voting? I understand that not everyone has access to, or the ability to use smartphones and the like, but at least polling stations could have touch-screen terminals similar to ATMs couldn't they? I could write some software to do it for a couple of million. I'd have to get a quote from my mate for the hardware. 🙂
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 22:56:10 GMT
Starmer. I wouldn't be surprised if he resigned if found to have really done something wrong, and I agree with others that this might be a good thing for the Labour party. Having seen more of her now, I quite like the idea of Lisa Nandy as leader, seems like the right job for her. And at some point, Starmer will get back into the shadow cabinet (after a decent pause) in a serious role which would probably suit his skills better. That analysis seems pretty sound to me. I would just substitute Yvette Cooper for Lisa Nandy. She is a formidable Commons performer, capable of comprehensively dismantling opponents. I think she could eat the PM for breakfast at PMQs (if he were still in situ). She also has the considerable advantage of already being reasonably well known to the public, not least due to the appearance of her husband (Ed Balls, as if everybody didn't know already) on Strictly a few years ago. Whilst she can come over as a bit humourless and dour in her doughty parliamentary performances, (gravitas is not a bad thing), she also showed her human side as a Strictly audience member by demonstrating unbridled joy when Ed miraculously managed a half decent foxtrot or such like - Gangnam style anyone? If I can remember that, then a lot of other ordinary, non-political types will, too. And Strictly gets gazillions of viewers. First female Labour PM? |
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2022 23:02:49 GMT
@isa
Cooper is one of the few current Labour MPs that I respect. She seems intelligent, not dogmatic but always on top of the subject and doesn't waffle like so many politicians (on all sides) do.
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Post by lens on May 7, 2022 23:07:55 GMT
The Labour defense has been that it was not pre-planned, unlike the dining street parties. The argument is the team had a long day campaigning, found late in the evening that no pubs or restaurants were open and the hotel was not serving food and so ordered a takeaway. This would be OK under the rules as they then existed (being clearly a work related meal break). What may be even more damning is that Starmer clearly said it was a break for a meal and they went back to work afterwards. The memo shown on the news clearly seems to show (assuming it's genuine) that not only was it pre-planned, but was also planned at the END of the day from 20.40 to 22.00 with nothing planned afterwards. In other words, completely contradicting Starmers "explanation". Personally, I can't get excited over what happened in itself, but if proven (and even if the police take no action) it does show Starmer clearly lying. (They even showed again the relevant clip of Starmer saying about "returning to work afterwards" on the news.) Even that may not be the end of the world, but seen against Starmer's "holier than thou" attacks on Boris, he's inevitably opening himself up to "hypocrite" claims, even if not a resigning matter he will likely be permanently weakened. |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 23:17:14 GMT
@isa Cooper is one of the few current Labour MPs that I respect. She seems intelligent, not dogmatic but always on top of the subject and doesn't waffle like so many politicians (on all sides) do. Agreed. |
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Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 23:26:21 GMT
I voted Cooper in 2015 but I think her time for being leader has passed now.
Reeves v Nandy likely.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 23:27:21 GMT
ON, My information may be incorrect but I have seen a table with SDLP on 7400ish before PBP eliminated. The question is will there be enough of an excess once the SDLP elected for the UUP to jump the DUP; and of course the advantage needs to a decent %age margin as well. NB) almost certain that the DUP or UUP 5th MLA elected will not reach the quota.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/constituencies/N06000008#stv-scoreboard
I don't know whether they are continuing to Count 12 tonight, or waiting till tomorrow when they will allocate the UUP candidate's transfer votes.
That may well push both the DUP and SDLP beyond the quota, or might require a 13th count to allocate the surplus votes from the candidate who has reached quota.
Not all STV systems are identical. In Scotland such a final stage would happen, but you may well be correct that the NI regulations simply give the final seat to the best placed candidate of the final 2. |
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2022 23:30:46 GMT
I voted Cooper in 2015 but I think her time for being leader has passed now. Reeves v Nandy likely. She's only 53. |
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