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Post by catmanjeff on May 7, 2022 18:47:53 GMT
That is interesting, but clearly a very biased article. If Starmer is fined, I am sure he will resign. If that happens, Johnson will probably be forced to follow suit too I would suggest?
The site has a strong left lean (thus not Starmer friendly), but the if the document is real it's still trouble for Starmer, regardless of the political bent of Skwawkbox. The site comes under IMPRESS, so complaints can be made to regulators.
If the document is wrong, Starmer could take legal action.
This could get messy.
I frankly have no idea how this ends.
Are we really looking at new Conservative and Labour leaders by the next GE?
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Post by hireton on May 7, 2022 18:57:33 GMT
That is interesting, but clearly a very biased article. If Starmer is fined, I am sure he will resign. If that happens, Johnson will probably be forced to follow suit too I would suggest?
The site has a strong left lean (thus not Starmer friendly), but the if the document is real it's still trouble for Starmer, regardless of the political bent of Skwawkbox. The site comes under IMPRESS, so complaints can be made to regulators.
If the document is wrong, Starmer could take legal action.
This could get messy.
I frankly have no idea how this ends.
Are we really looking at new Conservative and Labour leaders by the next GE?
There is no reason why a pre-planned event would make it illegal. |
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Post by graham on May 7, 2022 19:10:08 GMT
Analysis of voting in North East England in the local elections: So this implies a tiny 0.6% swing to Labour in this Red Wall area compared with 2018. In relation to 2021 the pro-Labour swing is clearly much higher. |
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Post by thylacine on May 7, 2022 19:13:14 GMT
The site has a strong left lean (thus not Starmer friendly), but the if the document is real it's still trouble for Starmer, regardless of the political bent of Skwawkbox. The site comes under IMPRESS, so complaints can be made to regulators.
If the document is wrong, Starmer could take legal action.
This could get messy.
I frankly have no idea how this ends.
Are we really looking at new Conservative and Labour leaders by the next GE?
There is no reason why a pre-planned event would make it illegal. It doesn't mean that the event broke the rules at the time but there is a problem if that plan is true. We were led to believe that it was a much more impromptu meal /break that was needed between work sessions. If this document exists then that was misleading at best. |
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Post by thylacine on May 7, 2022 19:14:51 GMT
Analysis of voting in North East England in the local elections: So this implies a tiny 0.6% swing to Labour in this Red Wall area compared with 2018. In relation to 2021 the pro-Labour swing is clearly much higher. It does mean though that the red wall seats at the moment would return to labour doesn't it. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 7, 2022 19:16:36 GMT
Are we really looking at new Conservative and Labour leaders by the next GE?
There is no reason why a pre-planned event would make it illegal. The Labour defense has been that it was not pre-planned, unlike the dining street parties. The argument is the team had a long day campaigning, found late in the evening that no pubs or restaurants were open and the hotel was not serving food and so ordered a takeaway. This would be OK under the rules as they then existed (being clearly a work related meal break). If it was pre-planned then that defense is weakened and looks disingenuous. Oddly enough, Starmer resigning (as leader not an MP) could be his greatest service to the Labour Party. It would allow for the election of a more charismatic leader and put massive pressure on Johnson and Sunak to explain why they haven't gone. With luck, it might also end the pointless attack on the left to which Starmer seems relentlessly committed and so for more unity of purpose. This is where I miss Turk. He spent ages arguing that so-called 'partygate' was all about cake and no one cared. It would be fascinating to learn if he took the same view of 'beergate'. |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on May 7, 2022 19:19:34 GMT
Aspire has beaten Lab to take Tower Hamlets council. The Lutfur Rahman comeback is complete. He has won the mayoralty and his party has won the council. I see that he was only banned from elected office for 5 years. It should have been for life. |
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Post by thylacine on May 7, 2022 19:25:02 GMT
There is no reason why a pre-planned event would make it illegal. The Labour defense has been that it was not pre-planned, unlike the dining street parties. The argument is the team had a long day campaigning, found late in the evening that no pubs or restaurants were open and the hotel was not serving food and so ordered a takeaway. This would be OK under the rules as they then existed (being clearly a work related meal break). If it was pre-planned then that defense is weakened and looks disingenuous. Oddly enough, Starmer resigning (as leader not an MP) could be his greatest service to the Labour Party. It would allow for the election of a more charismatic leader and put massive pressure on Johnson and Sunak to explain why they haven't gone. With luck, it might also end the pointless attack on the left to which Starmer seems relentlessly committed and so for more unity of purpose. This is where I miss Turk. He spent ages arguing that so-called 'partygate' was all about cake and no one cared. It would be fascinating to learn if he took the same view of 'beergate'. I was genuinely horrified by the Downing street parties and it would be hypocritical of me to defend beer gate if it turns out in a similar way just because the politicians involved are Labour. I'm sure this is what the electorate will think as well. I really did not like the photo of beer in hand when first it broke and was surprised it didn't cause more of a stir then but thought maybe I was being too puritanical. |
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Post by thylacine on May 7, 2022 19:27:45 GMT
Aspire has beaten Lab to take Tower Hamlets council. The Lutfur Rahman comeback is complete. He has won the mayoralty and his party has won the council. I see that he was only banned from elected office for 5 years. It should have been for life. He will be out for revenge as well. Not going to be happy days in Tower Hamlets for any of the previous administration. |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 19:28:37 GMT
What a shame you’re not in charge of it all. Alas Starmer is no Harold Wilson. The art of detailed political analysis isn’t dead 💀… |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 19:40:24 GMT
NI - 2 seats to declare (or at least be reported by BBC!)
SF 27 : DUP 24 = so whatever the outcome of those last 2 seats, SF are the largest party.
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Post by shevii on May 7, 2022 19:49:27 GMT
That itinerary isn't a Sqwawkbox generated news item (although as CMJ says they may be terribly biased and slant things but they don't print facts that aren't true). It originated from the Daily Mail and is all over the place. The Sunday Times is also quite damning as they appear to have found a disgruntled (or honest) Labour staffer willing to speak to the police quoting among other things that no work took place during or after the meal and that Mary Foy (Durham MP) turned up and didn't do any work but had quite a few drinks. The problem for Labour is the denials and lack of detail and clarity beyond "no rules were broken" so makes them look less than honest. It's nowhere near the scale or regularity of partygate but it does look more and more like a technical breach of the rules if the evidence stands up. Full Sunday Times story here (doesn't appear to be paywalled via twitter): www.thetimes.co.uk/article/witness-casts-new-doubt-on-keir-starmers-curry-claim-6pc05gnn2"They also accused some attendees, including Foy and her staff, of not working at all and only being there to socialise. “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules. Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed." I think most sensible people will be able to tell the difference between one mainly working event and parties, but the whole thing may do enough to muddy the waters and "all the same" for those who want to think this. |
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Post by catfuzz on May 7, 2022 20:02:53 GMT
Personally RE: Starmer and beergate, if misdemeanours where made, then I would ask exactly the same of them as would conservatives with FPNs. We’re a country that is underpinned by the rule of law, and it must be respected at all levels.
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Post by catfuzz on May 7, 2022 20:05:29 GMT
And RE: NI - there are definitely questions now on the future of the UK as an entity. With the SF and the already bellicose SNP clamouring for independence, I feel that it’s only a matter of time now for the breakup of the union rather than a question of if.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 20:06:13 GMT
Last ongoing count in NI is in Foyle - 2 out of the remaining candidates (DUP, UUP, SDLP, PBP) will make up the final numbers.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 20:08:42 GMT
And RE: NI - there are definitely questions now on the future of the UK as an entity. With the SF and the already bellicose SNP clamouring for independence, I feel that it’s only a matter of time now for the breakup of the union rather than a question of if. |
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Post by baggy07 on May 7, 2022 20:11:46 GMT
I have been frustrated by pundits and politicians from both main political parties and from their sides of the party using their own biases and providing opinion from these biases.
For example Labour have either done very well from the disasters of Corbyn, or these small increases in seats in these Local Elections are fine as in 2018 Labour did pretty well under Corbyn.
Surely it is not difficult from pundits looking at these factual votes and making a evidence driven viewpoint.
I do not think it is particularly complicated set of results to make these assumptions. Labour total vote of around 35% is very similar to what they got in 2018. In London and 2 or 3 other metropolitan areas their vote increased, in other areas it stood still and went backwards in others. The green vote increased in my opinion to a lot of disallusioned ex Labour voters from the left of the party voting Green. The liberal Democrats vote increases especially in the south due to the Tory vote moving direct to the Lib Dems.
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Post by neilj on May 7, 2022 20:22:13 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 20:23:09 GMT
I have been frustrated by pundits and politicians from both main political parties and from their sides of the party using their own biases and providing opinion from these biases. For example Labour have either done very well from the disasters of Corbyn, or these small increases in seats in these Local Elections are fine as in 2018 Labour did pretty well under Corbyn. Surely it is not difficult from pundits looking at these factual votes and making a evidence driven viewpoint. I do not think it is particularly complicated set of results to make these assumptions. Labour total vote of around 35% is very similar to what they got in 2018. In London and 2 or 3 other metropolitan areas their vote increased, in other areas it stood still and went backwards in others. The green vote increased in my opinion to a lot of disallusioned ex Labour voters from the left of the party voting Green. The liberal Democrats vote increases especially in the south due to the Tory vote moving direct to the Lib Dems. |
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Post by hireton on May 7, 2022 20:33:21 GMT
Amusing to see the radical loc's on here lapping up the Murdoch and Rothermere allegations aided and abetted by Continuity Corbynistas who would rather see a Tory government than one led by a terrible "centrist".
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Post by peterbell on May 7, 2022 20:35:37 GMT
Mark wrote "It is not a race to the bottom! This shows the difference between Starmer and Johnson, the latter being someone who has lied to and cheated on all of his previous wives and girlfriends - and as a journalist writing a piece on a Labour Party confeence, used what he called a "totty meter" to rate female speakers."
On the subject of Johnson and women - has anyone seen Carrie recently. It was noticeable that on the TV pics of the two leaders going to the polls, Johnsons "partner" was his dog. It has always been normal for the leader's wife/husband to accompany the leader but not on this occasion for Johnson. Mrs B who keeps a close eye on these things, reckons she has not seen Carrie on the news for weeks and is convinced she is no longer living in No 10. She wonders if Sunnak's wifes removal van also contained Carrie's stuff.
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Post by hireton on May 7, 2022 20:36:18 GMT
An alternative take on the Starmer hatchet job:
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Post by EmCat on May 7, 2022 20:37:27 GMT
Last ongoing count in NI is in Foyle - 2 out of the remaining candidates (DUP, UUP, SDLP, PBP) will make up the final numbers. The Belfast Telegraph article has updates, and a neat visual way of showing the transfers (both excess for candidates elected and reallocation for candidates eliminated) elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-assembly-election-2022/foyle |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 20:42:20 GMT
Mark wrote "It is not a race to the bottom! This shows the difference between Starmer and Johnson, the latter being someone who has lied to and cheated on all of his previous wives and girlfriends - and as a journalist writing a piece on a Labour Party confeence, used what he called a "totty meter" to rate female speakers." On the subject of Johnson and women - has anyone seen Carrie recently. It was noticeable that on the TV pics of the two leaders going to the polls, Johnsons "partner" was his dog. It has always been normal for the leader's wife/husband to accompany the leader but not on this occasion for Johnson. Mrs B who keeps a close eye on these things, reckons she has not seen Carrie on the news for weeks and is convinced she is no longer living in No 10. She wonders if Sunnak's wifes removal van also contained Carrie's stuff.
I congratulate Mrs B on her perspicacity! |
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Post by chrisaberavon on May 7, 2022 20:49:14 GMT
Good evening all.
I saw a tweet from Michael Thrasher that he calculates a 35 to 33 points Lab v Con, extrapolating from the results into GE terms. Opinion polls show a larger lead for Lab mostly.
EmCat: STV was such a hard system to explain to my A Level Politics students so that link would be very useful, thank you.
HIRETON: Thank you for your posts about Starmer.
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Post by RAF on May 7, 2022 20:54:16 GMT
Nothing so far in the public domain proves any kind of liability on the part of Starmer for breaches of the Coronavirus Regulations; let alone to the required criminal standard.
If Durham Police do not issue a Notice of Intended Prosection in the matter, Starmer could emerge with his reputation enhanced, putting the spolight back on to Boris and No.10 and the eventual full publication of the Gray report.
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Post by johntel on May 7, 2022 21:03:12 GMT
I have been frustrated by pundits and politicians from both main political parties and from their sides of the party using their own biases and providing opinion from these biases. For example Labour have either done very well from the disasters of Corbyn, or these small increases in seats in these Local Elections are fine as in 2018 Labour did pretty well under Corbyn. Surely it is not difficult from pundits looking at these factual votes and making a evidence driven viewpoint. I do not think it is particularly complicated set of results to make these assumptions. Labour total vote of around 35% is very similar to what they got in 2018. In London and 2 or 3 other metropolitan areas their vote increased, in other areas it stood still and went backwards in others. The green vote increased in my opinion to a lot of disallusioned ex Labour voters from the left of the party voting Green. The liberal Democrats vote increases especially in the south due to the Tory vote moving direct to the Lib Dems. agree with that, with oldnat's caveat. I think we're well into no overall majority territory. Which is fine by me - let's see how grown-up the parties can be about it. |
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Post by johntel on May 7, 2022 21:10:52 GMT
Nothing so far in the public domain proves any kind of liability on the part of Starmer for breaches of the Coronavirus Regulations; let alone to the required criminal standard. You could say the same about Rishi Sunak, but he got a fine. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 7, 2022 21:13:49 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 7, 2022 21:14:39 GMT
Amusing to see the radical loc's on here lapping up the Murdoch and Rothermere allegations aided and abetted by Continuity Corbynistas who would rather see a Tory government than one led by a terrible "centrist". My problem with Starmer is not (mostly) that he is a centrist, but that he looks so ill at ease in public and on TV, has poor popularity ratings and seems unnecessarily obsessed with battering an already beaten left for no good reason. Labour has better options available. Also I think it is to the credit of LoC posters that they take potential (and it is only potential at present) breaches of lock down rules seriously in contrast to the knee jerk defence of "Boris" that we got from certain RoC posters earlier on. By the way (and in fairness to RoC), I don't think Sunak should have been fined - he wasn't invited to the party and was unaware it was happening until he walked in. Nor did he stay long. I would have been less than happy to get fined for walking into someone else's party I knew nothing about. |
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