Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2022 8:08:13 GMT
you know full well that Omicron has infected far more people than prior waves, so the rate of fatalities has dropped considerably, I don't know anything of the sort. I know Zoe reported 2.2 million people concurrently with symptomatic covid at the start of April 2020 in ages 20-70. Which could have grossed up to 5-10 million concurrent cases time you include the whole population and asymptomatics. I know official case numbers are worthless as a real count of those infected. We have no handle at all on how many people have been exposed as we went along but simply fought it off without detectable symptoms. We aren't even certain if you did full lab tests on the entire population daily how many cases it would miss. if you have already had covid then your antibody protection is as good or better than vaccine, and you are very unlikely to die if reinfected because you already tested it and you didnt. Not necessarily recommending all people do that, because we have always known which are high risk (mostly the old), but low risk have always been safe to catch covid. But by accident or deliberately a substantial proportion became immune naturally not by vaccine. In south Africa by policy 70% only became immune through infection and their outcomes are no worse. I discussed this recently. Deaths have been at a steady daily rate for six months unlike the pattern of sharp peaks we had before. We have learnt how to flatten the curve without lockdowns. But if you project the current death rate back to the start it isn't so very much reduced compared to the average over that time. Considering it would fall naturally anyway through the most susceptible catching it, dying and exhausting that population of high risk- arguably we have changed nothing through intervention. Just made it take longer at huge expense. The data being used to claim lockdowns or vaccines worked is rubbish. makes political polling look spot on and exact. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2022 8:24:37 GMT
The investigation into Starmer won't help Johnson, whatever the outcome. Partly pending on outcome but also simply because it's being investigated, it will add to discrediting both lab and con and all politicians. If I was Putin maybe I would at least be commending my department for destabilising the uk. The brexit second shoe still has a ways to drop. That's why con are still making noises about improving the deal.Once people realise how bad are brexit consequences that support will fall further. I doubt any mp wants to become leader now of a sinking ship. Maybe like may if it's an ambition and they are otherwise no hopers, but that would make con a laughing stock. So he's staying. It's all about damage limitation now, so he could be forced out by more convictions or awful polling but unlikely. It is possible con might choose to cut and run with an election so as to end the damage, but can they force one under current legislation? So maybe now it's enjoy the perks of government while it lasts. Too late to get any meaningfull benefit from an election. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2022 8:25:53 GMT
nickp As far as the available information allows doesn't look to be a problem for Starmer , hasn't done anything illegal or even questionable. However if a different conclusion is reached I strongly suspect he would do the honourable thing and resign as party leader. Convicted Spaffer having no doubt received more fpn's won't. Which would rather reinforce the dishonesty of the regime in the electorates minds. It would be a shame for the Labour party to lose a leader who at least looks and sounds prime ministerial. But at least they have some broad church suitable alternatives as opposed to the talent vacuum in the Spaffer regime.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2022 8:31:32 GMT
hireton A predictable response to BBC Tory bias ,but still somewhat insulting response from Blackford given that the majority of Scottish voters voted Labour, Tory or Lib dem.
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Post by jib on May 7, 2022 8:31:59 GMT
nickp As far as the available information allows doesn't look to be a problem for Starmer , hasn't done anything illegal or even questionable. However if a different conclusion is reached I strongly suspect he would do the honourable thing and resign as party leader. Convicted Spaffer having no doubt received more fpn's won't. Which would rather reinforce the dishonesty of the regime in the electorates minds. It would be a shame for the Labour party to lose a leader who at least looks and sounds prime ministerial. But at least they have some broad church suitable alternatives as opposed to the talent vacuum in the Spaffer regime. Indeed. I believe Starmer would resign should he be sanctioned by the police. It is worth noting that the Labour Leadership Election rules have changed in that nomination from a fifth of MPs is now required, which would make a return to the Hard Left very unlikely. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 8:35:47 GMT
nickp As far as the available information allows doesn't look to be a problem for Starmer , hasn't done anything illegal or even questionable. However if a different conclusion is reached I strongly suspect he would do the honourable thing and resign as party leader. Convicted Spaffer having no doubt received more fpn's won't. Which would rather reinforce the dishonesty of the regime in the electorates minds. It would be a shame for the Labour party to lose a leader who at least looks and sounds prime ministerial. But at least they have some broad church suitable alternatives as opposed to the talent vacuum in the Spaffer regime. The right wing press will attack him whatever the outcome but it's only that 30% who will believe it any way. Starmer resigning would be a masterstroke for Labour - except a leadership contest could get a bit messy and distract from the business at hand especially if Johnson did go for an election! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 7, 2022 8:38:21 GMT
Our local " Orange wave" continues in nearby St Albans However after the election, the political makeup of the council is 50 Liberal Democrat councillors with four Conservatives, one Green and one Independent. After Cameron managed to discredit the libs as political opportunists, Johnson has managed to rehabilitate them. Given this second chance can they create a clear platform and stick to it? History suggests they take more con than lab votes, but they cannot just be yes men who would for example go into coalition again with a johnson government post the next election. |
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Post by moby on May 7, 2022 8:59:31 GMT
The investigation into Starmer won't help Johnson, whatever the outcome. These set of results are woeful for the Tories but with a bit of early spin aided and abetted by the cowardly BBC Johnson will hang on - which is good news for Labour too. I think an early election is doubtful and would be catastrophic for the Tories - but the question is will they be catastrophic anyway if he hangs on for dear life? Is that 30% the absolute low tide of blind tribal Tory voters? No way he'll resign and the election threat is probably to keep the backbenchers in line. However you look at the numbers one thing is totally clear the tories are now basically an English Party with probable terminal implications for the union, as presently constituted anyway. Johnson is totally toxic in Scotland and Wales. One major challenge Labour will inevitably face prior to any election will be the accusations from the tories and press that Starmer and Sturgeon will be working hand in glove to betray the Union. |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 9:01:46 GMT
It's possible, nay probable, that between them Cameron & Johnson will succeed in breaking up the UK and leaving England & Wales isolated outside the biggest trade block in the world, while NI & Scotland are back in.
Great play, you stupid stupid dolts. Talk about Putin's poodles.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 7, 2022 9:03:36 GMT
@danny
It's true lib dem is perceived as an easier move for disaffected pro European one nation Tories than the Labour party
It's too close for them time wise to Corbyn's leadership.
However looking at the'21 manifesto ( I know no one does) the lib dems are currently some way to the left/ more progressive of Labour on several issues including universal basic income and electoral reform.
They are also ( and it's the reason I remain a member) the only national party with a credible chance of influencing government decisions who have rejoin the European union as policy.
However the evidence is also pretty clear that a strong lib dem party enhances Labour's electoral prospects.So it's in both parties interests that both do well.
For example in my constituency of the lib dems picked up 15% from the Tories( not remotely unlikely given local results) and Labour simply held its vote share we would end up with a Labour mp, which would be a distinct improvement on the gammon personified current tory.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 7, 2022 9:11:03 GMT
Interesting differences in results The BBC put Conservative losses at 490 and Labour gains as 139. But then others say this The discrepancy is because the latter show councillors compared with how things stood before polling day. The BBC compares the change against the equivalent 2017/18 elections. In both methodologies it is bad news for the Tories, but the one used by Ian Jones and others shows better news for Labour. In our ward the 2018 winners were two Independents. However at some point in the last four years they 'came out' as Conservatives and that's what they've stood as this time round. They've won again and increased their vote, but not by as much as adding the 2018 Tory vote to their Indy vote. In fact something like 250 people who voted for them plus the Tories in 2018, chose to vote Labour this time round. Now if you are comparing 2018's result to 2022 you'd say it was a Tory gain from Ind, but if you were comparing the Council as constituted the week before this election took place it was a Tory Hold. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 7, 2022 9:27:59 GMT
Our local " Orange wave" continues in nearby St Albans Before Thursday the council had a Liberal Democrat administration, with 30 of the 58 councillors. The Conservatives have 23 councillors, with two Labour Party councillors, two independents and one Green Party councillor. Most wards will elect three councillors, with two two-councillor wards and one single-councillor ward. However after the election, the political makeup of the council is 50 Liberal Democrat councillors with four Conservatives, one Green and one Independent. Until 2017 St Albans was mostly tory, with a couple of Labour wins under Blair,other than that 100 years of tories. The dismal far right brexitanian Anne Main lost in 2019 to Daisy Cooper having held the seat for the Tories since 2005. St Albans voted overwhelmingly remain and is one of the nicest towns/ cities to live in in the South East. It's indicative of the issues this particular iteration of toryism is going to have in retaining its blue wall base. Pedant Point. St Albans, being in Hertfordshire, is in the Eastern Region, not South East. As an ex resident of Bovingdon and Kings Langley it doesn't sound right to me either but apparently it's been defined as that since 1994, which was the year that Famille SDA left Langley Hill for the quiet beauty of Burton Leonard, North Yorkshire. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by shevii on May 7, 2022 9:28:59 GMT
Croydon elects a Tory mayor- very fine margins on round 2. Pretty solid Labour before but there have been some serious issues at the council. I haven't followed it too carefully but I think "bankrupt" covers it, plus a payoff to the Chief Executive of £600k when they had resigned while cutting meals on wheels. Smoking guns on contracts being awarded to friends.
That close on the mayor makes it very difficult to judge what result the council election will bring when it finally gets counted- gossip on twitter says it might not be announced until Sunday but perhaps exaggerated.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 9:34:20 GMT
@isa - where are you getting live seat count information from? I've been waiting for a Lib Dem revival in the SW. I think this is where it starts to get really tough for the Conservatives. While the Red Wall took all the attention in 2019, it was the implosion of the Orange Fortresses in 2015 that opened up a path for a majority. I get the feeling that what we are seeing now isn't necessarily the guaranteed end of the Conservatives, but with London, Scotland, parts of the Red Wall, possibly Wales, and maybe the S west all closing down on them, the pathway of options into No 10 is shrinking rapidly. Sorry, alec. I was out and about a lot yesterday and this is my first chance to respond. Please see link below for my source. The final result in Somerset is pretty impressive for LDEM (61 seats out of 110). I would agree that this is ominous for CON. This performance harks back to those halcyon days pre-2010 where LDEM were a real force in SW politics. With this result and others around the country, their rehabilitation appears well underway. newsomersetcouncil.org.uk/ |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 7, 2022 9:39:35 GMT
The Guardian have offered the following explanation of why various outlets are quoting different figures for gains and losses of council seats:
"Why do the seat tallies differ between outlets?
A quick note to explain the data we’re publishing. You might have noticed that the tallies of the number of seats gained and lost so far by each party differs between outlets. This is for a number of reasons. Our data on councillor numbers comes from the PA Media news agency, which only reports on complete councils, while some sources report each council seat as it comes in. There are also differences in the point of comparison: PA calculates change based on the status of each seat just before the election, not on its status after the preceding election. Lastly, there are frequent changes in ward boundaries and the number of councillors per ward, to maintain equality of representation. This may mean that parties’ net seat changes in one particular council may not balance each other out."
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Post by hireton on May 7, 2022 9:43:58 GMT
A few notable points from the Scottish elections:
- Comhairle nan Eilean Siar now has female representation with 2 SNP women councillors being elected ( the first since 2012 I believe)
- for the first time a Scot who came to Scotland as an asylum seeker has been elected as a councillor( for the SNP in Glasgow).
- Alba secured no new councillors and lost those who had defected from the SNP suggesting its obsession with GC views and culture wars is not an electoral asset.
- a transwoman was elected as a SGP councillor in Glasgow replacing a well known SNP councillor who is an advocate for GRA and transgender rights. This promoted a delicious exchange between her and a TERF:
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Post by shevii on May 7, 2022 9:44:37 GMT
eorThanks for the info on the differentials. Your theory has to be right even though it seems a huge gap- there have been quite a few defections going around I think so possibly that explains the large difference. People going independent and then losing or not standing. Without knowing the seat by seat mechanics I think this means the BBC/Sky figures are more accurate in terms of general changes. A Lab seat where they defect and Lab wins again is not really a Lab gain even if some of those might be tricky- say someone defects to the Greens and stands again. Less so with left wing breakthrough party/PAL as that party doesn't have a high profile so that's down to if the candidate had some exceptional local appeal beyond the under 5% you might expect to get for a pure socialist candidate.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 7, 2022 9:50:01 GMT
Most depressing result of the whole day. Previously banned from office for corrupt and illegal practices, vote-rigging, buying votes and religious intimidation. Expect trouble to come. Is it? Honestly? Surely this is a one man side show compared to what is going on just across London in Downing street? Rahman has done nothing and could not do anything compared to a certain other? Funny that whatever Rahman might or might not have done or do, when it's an entire party machine which has gone off the rails we just sit back and watch. Pound been falling since last summer. Uk closed down because of some fancy experimental way to manage an epidemic which didn't work. The whole economy screwed by closing down the trade system it required to function. Obviously jobs for the boys on a national scale. An artificially created energy crisis which also created a critical military weakness. Massively increased national debt and screwed national finances. Just how bad does this have to get, yet what's causing public concern is a few parties? That's so screwed up. Boris Johnson and his government were not on the ballot paper and could not be removed by these elections even if the Conservatives had lost every single seat. So yes, Rahman's election was indeed the most depressing result of the day. I was still in local government when he first started creating chaos at Tower Hamlets and I feel very sorry for the unfortunate council officers who will have to deal with his activities now. Here is the link to wikipedia for what can be publicly said about him with getting sued. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lutfur_Rahman_(British_politician) |
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Post by ladyvalerie on May 7, 2022 9:51:32 GMT
Wordle 322 4/6
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
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Post by alec on May 7, 2022 10:25:18 GMT
@danny - "I discussed this recently. Deaths have been at a steady daily rate for six months unlike the pattern of sharp peaks we had before.We have learnt how to flatten the curve without lockdowns. "
Perhaps I've been a bit unfair to you. Maybe you really are stupid? You're now repeating things back to me that I was telling you about over a year ago. Yes, we have flattened the deaths curve mainly due to vaccines, which dramatically altered the landscape well before mass infection had any effect on immunity.
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Post by shevii on May 7, 2022 10:52:25 GMT
I don't think you've got the hang of posting your wordle scores yet! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 10:56:04 GMT
I read somewhere the other day that the Tories were confident of making gains in Sunderland. Looks like they were routinely slaughtered.
Maybe I'm getting confused with somewhere else.
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Post by jib on May 7, 2022 11:16:23 GMT
I read somewhere the other day that the Tories were confident of making gains in Sunderland. Looks like they were routinely slaughtered. Maybe I'm getting confused with somewhere else. I think it was the Tories who were getting Sunderland confused with somewhere else. The odds are on that the blue wall will be red again pretty soon. |
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Post by jib on May 7, 2022 11:19:33 GMT
@danny - "I discussed this recently. Deaths have been at a steady daily rate for six months unlike the pattern of sharp peaks we had before.We have learnt how to flatten the curve without lockdowns. " Perhaps I've been a bit unfair to you. Maybe you really are stupid? You're now repeating things back to me that I was telling you about over a year ago. Yes, we have flattened the deaths curve mainly due to vaccines, which dramatically altered the landscape well before mass infection had any effect on immunity. COVID does make you stupid apparently: theconversation.com/severe-covid-is-equivalent-to-20-years-of-ageing-new-study-182341Not something to be taken lightly. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 7, 2022 11:53:27 GMT
I heard Blunkett on the radio earlier today discussing how the ABT LOC vote should organise itself. Personally, given the political landscape I don't think this can be done in any formal manner. I think both the LDs and Lab recognise that to defeat the Tories in England they need voters form the other party to 'lend them' their votes. Lab's move to the right helps with LD voters being more inclined to vote tactically, but I suspect for many Lab voters the spectre of '10 is still there. Its noticeable that LD's have at a national level at least toned down their ant-Labour rhetoric and the line is very much get the Tories out. They do after all stand a greater chance of winning seats from the Tories than Labour
Tactically Labour will probably make the assessment that where their ceiling is approx 20% they will effectively not campaign - still have someone on the ballot but will not invest any resource. The LDs will have some difficult calls to make in areas such as London where in 2019 they effectively split the anti-Tory vote eg Westminster and Wimbledon, but will have to reciprocate what Labour does across a large number of constituencies. The problem for the parties is that while all of this makes perfect sense to party HQ's, local constituencies and activist will not be so easily convinced.
Part of the challenge is voters identifying correctly who is best placed between LD and Lab to unseat the Tories. The basic demographic of LD/Green and LAB voters is now virtually indistinguishable in many parts of the country. In the past it may have been easier to identify if you were in a more Labourish area - but given the defection of wc voters and areas and the increasing mc support for Labour it may not be apparent who has the best shot. Who would have thought 10 years ago that Worthing would go towards Labour (2010 they gave 10% and were behind the LDs?
I'm becoming increasingly convinced that the Tories will most likely lose their OM, but struggle to see Labour getting an overall OM. To do the latter they will need to take on and defeat the might of the SNP (well at least win something in the realm of 20 seats from them) on top of making some hefty gains in England. I know people will go well in the past Labour had an OM without necessarily having to rely on its Scottish seats etc - but that would require Labour to win as big as Blair did in England which currently looks highly unlikely.
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Post by graham on May 7, 2022 12:00:10 GMT
Whilst I have no wish to see this happen, if Starmer comes a cropper via a FPN he will have brought it on himself. The said incident occurred in the course of last year's Hartlepool by election - an election which he was utterly stupid to bring about by persuading the MP to resign. I note too that on the basis of this week's Local Election result there Labour would now have held the seat fairly comfortably! It confirms my sense that Starmer lacks a political brain.
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Post by graham on May 7, 2022 12:03:41 GMT
I strongly disagree with those who label the LDs as LOC. Whilst not Tories , they are firmly ROC - particularly in terms of economic policy with their views being closer to Sunak than Johnson.
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Post by alec on May 7, 2022 12:09:20 GMT
jib - "Not something to be taken lightly." What really troubles me are the findings of chemical markers in the brain post covid that replicate early stage Alzheimers. These have been observed in patients with only mild covid as well as in those who died from the disease, and has led numerous experts in degenerative diseases to worry that we may be facing a tidal wave* of Alzheimer diagnoses in the years ahead, like we are already finding with post covid diabetes and strokes. *I know the modern fashion is for 'tsunami', but I prefer the original.
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Post by graham on May 7, 2022 12:09:26 GMT
Re- Scotland - Labour polled almost 22% this week compared with less than 20% in 2017. The latter elections took place just 5 weeks prior to the 2017 GE when Labour exceeded 27% there. Given that Independents and Others polled nearly 10% at this week's elections, it seems reasonable for Labour to contemplate 25% - 30% there at the next Westminster election.
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Post by alec on May 7, 2022 12:10:54 GMT
Ukraine claims to have liberated more territory around Kharkiv, along with the destruction of another ship at Snake Island. This time it is a small landing craft, but the Russian navy is also taking a battering in this campaign.
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