|
|
Post by eor on May 6, 2022 22:46:28 GMT
Not according to the BBC. The front page of their website is: "Tories lose hundreds of seats as Lib Dems make big gains. The Tories have lost more that 330 council seats in England, but Labour have failed to make significant progress outside London." Presumably Worthing, Southampton, Cumbria, etc. are now London boroughs. At the moment Labour have gained more seats in Wales than in England. Net gains are 52 across the whole of England. I can't easily find how many they gained in London, but it will leave a few dozen at most across the rest of England. So yes, bad for the Tories but hardly a Labour triumph (in England). Happily I have more time and/or less self-respect than you, so I counted. Taking the +/- data from the BBC site, Labour are up 42 councillors net in London, which would give them a net gain of 10 across the rest of the English councils that were voting yesterday. Obviously that number doesn't say a great deal about Labour's GE prospects, as Labour losing councillors here and there to Greens and Independents in parliamentary seats they already hold almost certainly does no harm to Starmer's chances of being PM. Likewise the LibDems making inroads in places they used to contest with the Tories surely helps Labour's chances. And has been pointed out several times today, Labour being back to 2018 levels is an improvement in itself from the deeper hole they were in more recently than that. But in the specific context of describing the results of these English local elections, to say that Labour haven't made significant gains outside London seems pretty uncontentious. Indeed, the opening line of the Guardian's summary of the local elections across the three nations says "heavy Conservative losses are tempered by a mixed picture for Labour" which to me seems more directly negative than the BBC's phrasing. www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2022/may/05/elections-2022-results-live-local-council-england-scotland-wales |
|
|
|
Post by pete on May 6, 2022 22:47:05 GMT
See new Tweets
Conversation
Peter Walker
@peterwalker99
One of the curiosities of what might be the new evidence seen by Durham police is the idea, mooted in another paper, that local MP Mary Foy's wish that people attending a Zoom quiz have "a greasy night" is NE slang for "boozy"... when it seems to have been a typo for "great".
There are seemingly claims that some element of the quiz was an in-person social event, although the only invite I've seen refers to Zoom invites. Either way, Labour insist Starmer had nothing to do with any quiz, and that his beer/curry were separate.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 22:51:14 GMT
So the Tories are now the party of the working class? Not this working-class bloke. I'd rather cut my own throat than vote Tory. How odd. you people do have some strange notions. I am reminded of when I was courting my wife, who was working class. There was a big family gathering at her parents' house every Saturday. The first time I attended one of these my fiance went for a nap and her sister-in-law grabbed me and kissed me (French-style) in front of everyone. Never having encountered these sort of people before in a family situation, I just thought it must be one of their customs and went along with it. As it turned out, it wasn't considered the right thing to do. How is one supposed to know these things? |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on May 6, 2022 22:57:33 GMT
Not this working-class bloke. I'd rather cut my own throat than vote Tory. How odd. you people do have some strange notions. I am reminded of when I was courting my wife, who was working class. There was a big family gathering at her parents' house every Saturday. The first time I attended one of these my fiance went for a nap and her sister-in-law grabbed me and kissed me (French-style) in front of everyone. Never having encountered these sort of people before in a family situation, I just thought it must be one of their customs and went along with it. As it turned out, it wasn't considered the right thing to do. How is one supposed to know these things? I'm completely baffled by this anecdote. By "French-style" do you mean she pecked you on both cheeks, as the French do in greeting, or did before Covid, or something more orally penetrative. It would be hard to describe my impatience to hear the answer. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 22:59:42 GMT
Colour me stunned, but I was right. DM headline: "Now its slippery Starmer in crisis" - a 'Beergate' reference. Daily Express even more deranged: "Bullish Boris back on track as 'red wall' keeps faith" FFS. It’s the populist way. If reality won’t play ball, make up your own. Or as the newly populist BBC might like to put it, we can’t just report reality as it’s not objective, we have to balance it with whatever unreality the brexit supporting, ‘patriotic’, white working class might have been persuaded to believe. Being seen to validate peoples beliefs, esp if they support the gvt, is more important than the truth to the BBC. So your definition of 'populist' is anyone who doesn't agree with you? |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 23:05:10 GMT
How odd. you people do have some strange notions. I am reminded of when I was courting my wife, who was working class. There was a big family gathering at her parents' house every Saturday. The first time I attended one of these my fiance went for a nap and her sister-in-law grabbed me and kissed me (French-style) in front of everyone. Never having encountered these sort of people before in a family situation, I just thought it must be one of their customs and went along with it. As it turned out, it wasn't considered the right thing to do. How is one supposed to know these things? I'm completely baffled by this anecdote. By "French-style" do you mean she pecked you on both cheeks, as the French do in greeting, or did before Covid, or something more orally penetrative. It would be hard to describe my impatience to hear the answer. Ok, I was trying not to be too graphic, but in order to satisfy your curiosity, she nearly sucked my tonsils out.  |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 23:09:46 GMT
"Populism refers to a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of the people and often juxtapose this group against the elite. The term developed in the late 19th century and has been applied to various politicians, parties and movements since that time, often as a pejorative. Within political science and other social sciences, several different definitions of populism have been employed, with some scholars proposing that the term be rejected altogether." (Wiki)
I subscribe to the view of the last group of scholars.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 23:11:14 GMT
Nice to agree with you ON.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 23:13:24 GMT
mercian
Most of our mutual generation had their tonsils forcibly removed while we were children. Are you sure she wasn't a health worker attempting to remedy that oversight in your case?
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 23:15:59 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by laszlo4new on May 6, 2022 23:19:48 GMT
How odd. you people do have some strange notions. I am reminded of when I was courting my wife, who was working class. There was a big family gathering at her parents' house every Saturday. The first time I attended one of these my fiance went for a nap and her sister-in-law grabbed me and kissed me (French-style) in front of everyone. Never having encountered these sort of people before in a family situation, I just thought it must be one of their customs and went along with it. As it turned out, it wasn't considered the right thing to do. How is one supposed to know these things? I'm completely baffled by this anecdote. By "French-style" do you mean she pecked you on both cheeks, as the French do in greeting, or did before Covid, or something more orally penetrative. It would be hard to describe my impatience to hear the answer. To be fair, the French kissing varies by region from two,, three, four, and five in Corsica. while the standard English refers to French Kiss as meeting of tongues, in most European languages it would imply lack of trousers to carry it out. Sorry for the pedantry. |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on May 6, 2022 23:20:33 GMT
I'm completely baffled by this anecdote. By "French-style" do you mean she pecked you on both cheeks, as the French do in greeting, or did before Covid, or something more orally penetrative. It would be hard to describe my impatience to hear the answer. Ok, I was trying not to be too graphic, but in order to satisfy your curiosity, she nearly sucked my tonsils out.  There are several possible interpretations. Yr fiancee had gone for a nap because you were v boring & sis was consoling you. Sis had been told you were the world's best or worst kisser & she was confirming either one or other hypothesis. Sis was dead drunk & would have snogged anything resembling a human being. You referred to yr betrothed as fiance which of course refers to a male. Was this a spelling error or were you a pioneer of gay marriage. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 23:22:22 GMT
Jackson Carlaw certainly has an eye for salvaging something from disaster!
For those who don't know East Renfrewshire, it is mainly an extremely wealthy suburb of Glasgow, where traditional 20th century experience was that it would always be Tory.
It has 18 councillors, and after losing another 2 yesterday, only 5 of them are now Tory.
|
|
|
|
Post by pete on May 6, 2022 23:32:08 GMT
mercian
Most of our mutual generation had their tonsils forcibly removed while we were children. Are you sure she wasn't a health worker attempting to remedy that oversight in your case? why was that? |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 23:34:27 GMT
Ok, I was trying not to be too graphic, but in order to satisfy your curiosity, she nearly sucked my tonsils out. There are several possible interpretations. Yr fiancee had gone for a nap because you were v boring & sis was consoling you. Sis had been told you were the world's best or worst kisser & she was confirming either one or other hypothesis. Sis was dead drunk & would have snogged anything resembling a human being. You referred to yr betrothed as fiance which of course refers to a male. Was this a spelling error or were you a pioneer of gay marriage. I think she was trying to make her husband jealous. And yes, I missed the final 'e' off but thinking about it she was only my girlfriend at that stage anyway. We never got formally engaged. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 23:40:59 GMT
mercian
Most of our mutual generation had their tonsils forcibly removed while we were children. Are you sure she wasn't a health worker attempting to remedy that oversight in your case? why was that? As ON has not replied yet, it was a medical fashion in the early 20th century. I expect the medical reason could be found somewhere. |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on May 6, 2022 23:48:03 GMT
I'm completely baffled by this anecdote. By "French-style" do you mean she pecked you on both cheeks, as the French do in greeting, or did before Covid, or something more orally penetrative. It would be hard to describe my impatience to hear the answer. To be fair, the French kissing varies by region from two,, three, four, and five in Corsica. while the standard English refers to French Kiss as meeting of tongues, in most European languages it would imply lack of trousers to carry it out. Sorry for the pedantry. You re not in the least bit sorry, but we'll let that pass. I have been in a French cafe when someone comes in & kisses 6 people at a table on both cheeks & then leaves 5 minutes later, repeating the activity. This goes on all night. It's how the French get their exercise. In Casablanca the French croupier kisses Rick (Bogart) on both cheeks when he saves the homour of a young female refugee by fixing the gambling in his cafe. Bogart pushing him & says : "get away from me" or something. The entente projected in the film's ideology has its limits. My daughter, endlessly plagued by debilitating sore throats, was finally persuaded to have the tonsils removed when she was 14? She never had another one. I'm not justifying the general practice. |
|
|
|
Post by catfuzz on May 6, 2022 23:56:52 GMT
Evening. Was on here for a while back in 2019 but then swore off taking politics seriously for a bit. Popping back to share a horrible (for LoC) thought I've had though. Surely now is actually a very good time for BJ to call a snap election? - Cost of living hasn't really hit yet, so can offer all sorts of BS about how they're going to Level Down bills if they get elected again. - Durham's investigation kills partygate as an attack line by Labour stone dead. And if KS gets fined during the campaign he's basically screwed. - LDs haven't really had time to get their act together in the south. It would be squeeky, but I'd bet on a small OM in the circumstamces. Can someone tell me how I'm wrong now please. A snap election? But there’s a war on, right? 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by eor on May 7, 2022 0:29:53 GMT
On the net gains tho... different outlets are clearly using different counting methods for gains as the Guardian have Labour at +264 across GB whilst the BBC have them +52 in England, +67 in Wales and +20 in Scotland.
And for Tory losses, the Guardian have -398 across GB whilst the BBC have -341 in England, -63 in Scotland and -86 in Wales.
I wondered if the Press Association count the Guardian is using was treating all seats won at new councils as gains, but it isn't. The two are treating new unitary councils a bit differently - the PA are calculating +/- off the notional boundaries of the new authority, whereas the BBC seem to be quoting +/- for the new authority compared to the totals in the authorities it replaces, hence they show 36 CON seats in Somerset as a loss of 34 whilst the Guardian show it as a loss of 3.
Doing some comparisons... it seems the PA +/- is literally comparing each party's totals to the composition prior to the election even when there are extensive boundary changes. So eg in Hillingdon which has 12 fewer seats in it than before this election the Guardian show the net changes this time as CON -14 LAB +2, whereas the BBC have CON -4 LAB +4 presumably off the new notional boundaries.
And the Guardian do note that the PA are comparing to who holds the seat going into the election, not who won it in 2018 (which I think is what the BBC are using where there aren't boundary changes).
So the difference in the Tory losses roughly makes sense - the methodological difference on the new councils (Cumberland, North Yorkshire, Somerset and Westmorland & Furness) gives the BBC calc about 65 more Tory losses than the PA calc does, and they're about 90 apart overall, so the rest could easily be the result of the other discrepancies in methods, and that the Guardian reckon there are four councils to go whilst the BBC say they're counting all but two.
But the two methods for the new councils give virtually the same Labour gains in both cases, so where the difference of 125 in Labour gains comes from eludes me.
Could there be a significant number of seats up yesterday where the seat was won by Labour last time around, then technically lost via defection/expulsion/etc and then won again by Labour this time? If I'm reading it right that would be counted as a Labour gain by the PA but as no change by the BBC. Likewise I suppose if people were elected as Labour, became independent and then retained their seats under a banner other than Labour they'd count as a Labour loss for the BBC and no change for the PA. Could that explain it?
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on May 7, 2022 5:40:08 GMT
There seems to be a close correlation between the tory vote and the less well educated:- The Conservative vote is up in the places with fewest graduates, but significantly down in the places with most graduates. Labour, on the other hands, is losing votes most in places with the fewest graduates. So the Tories are now the party of the working class? Depends how you define class I suppose. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,372
Member is Online
|
Post by Danny on May 7, 2022 5:52:00 GMT
Lutfur Rahman has come back from the political grave to win the Mayoralty of Tower Hamlets Council. Most depressing result of the whole day. Previously banned from office for corrupt and illegal practices, vote-rigging, buying votes and religious intimidation. Expect trouble to come. Is it? Honestly? Surely this is a one man side show compared to what is going on just across London in Downing street? Rahman has done nothing and could not do anything compared to a certain other? Funny that whatever Rahman might or might not have done or do, when it's an entire party machine which has gone off the rails we just sit back and watch. Pound been falling since last summer. Uk closed down because of some fancy experimental way to manage an epidemic which didn't work. The whole economy screwed by closing down the trade system it required to function. Obviously jobs for the boys on a national scale. An artificially created energy crisis which also created a critical military weakness. Massively increased national debt and screwed national finances. Just how bad does this have to get, yet what's causing public concern is a few parties? That's so screwed up. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 7, 2022 6:05:25 GMT
Interesting differences in results
The BBC put Conservative losses at 490 and Labour gains as 139. But then others say this
The discrepancy is because the latter show councillors compared with how things stood before polling day. The BBC compares the change against the equivalent 2017/18 elections.
In both methodologies it is bad news for the Tories, but the one used by Ian Jones and others shows better news for Labour.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,372
Member is Online
|
Post by Danny on May 7, 2022 6:13:31 GMT
There have been c 16,000 deaths in the Omicron wave, not too far short of the 18,000 in the Delta wave, which actually went on a fair bit longer. So in the end the vaccine hasn't reduced deaths at all, and you are posting data to confirm this? You have often mentioned long covid. But you have never responded to the counter that there is nothing new whatever about long....anything. All illnesses have lingering symptoms which is a pretty normal situation. We just havnt tabulated them before. And don't forget the study which found nearly as much long covid amongst trial members who had never had covid as amongst those who had. Absolutely and glad to hear you finally agree. There is no alternative except to treat covid just like all the other cold viruses and live with it and with regular reinfections. I've been saying that for two years.There never was any alternative but we squandered a trillion pounds and screwed the world economy because some smarty pants medics hoped they had a better plan than the one the human race had developed from centuries of experience. Partly it's the fault of the political system where politicians feel they must be seen to do something, even though doing nothing would be better. And no hope of admitting mistakes. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on May 7, 2022 6:26:12 GMT
Published yesterday in the Guardian. The reasoning in the last paragraph seems a bit curious. "Durham’s former police chief has condemned attempts to get his former force to investigate Keir Starmer over allegations of Covid rule-breaking as “hypocritical” and “dangerous” and said there is no evidence the Labour leader flouted the law. h hypocriticl and dangerous. It means operational policing is being dragged into a political minefield.' He said all the circumstances around Starmer were hugely different to those surrounding Boris Johnson’s law-breaking. Barton said: 'The only reason that those offences should be looked at in retrospect is if the people who made the laws, broke the laws. That is why it was crucial the gatherings in Westminster were investigated.'" I don't understand this - surely Starmer DID make the law? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Labour supported all the covid legislation? |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 7, 2022 6:32:01 GMT
EOR, thanks for trying to untangle the reasons for the variations.
Seat counts will form many of the headlines but the PNS is the best measure I believe for us geeks.
35/30/19 seems to be the agreed level for GB as a whole.
Being STV means the PNS is less applicable in Scotland particularly for the SNP and, while Labour will be pleased to move in to second place only leading the Tories by 2% will be disappointing as polls suggested a wider gap. Greens will be pleased and LDs encouraged.
SNP 34.1, Lab 21.8, Cons 19.7, LD 8.6, Greens 6.
Wales seems particularly bad for the Tories and good for Labour.
Whilst the last time these seats were contested in 2017 was very strong for the Tories and poor for Labour it is still the case that the 'swing' is decent. Unfortunately, I can find the final PNS swings in Wales anywhere despite looking for quarter of an hour. (added later, still couple of counts to conclude so media not calculating I think).
16 and 17 year olds voting may have distorted to an extent.
Resentment at Westminster in Wales seemed to grow in autumn 2020 when the Government only intervened once the South East required it.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on May 7, 2022 7:04:58 GMT
@danny - "So in the end the vaccine hasn't reduced deaths at all, and you are posting data to confirm this?"
Please don't be willfully stupid. You are perfectly capable of understanding total numbers and rates, and so you know full well that Omicron has infected far more people than prior waves, so the rate of fatalities has dropped considerably, due to vaccines, while the total deaths remains high. Like I say, please don't be willfully stupid.
"You have often mentioned long covid. But you have never responded to the counter that there is nothing new whatever about long....anything."
This is factually incorrect. I have referenced long flu, pointing out the research that shows persistent symptoms after flu to be significantly less prevalent and less severe. And even if they weren't, the fact that long symptoms persist after many other infections simply isn't a reason to dismiss them with covid. Covid is infecting a higher proportion of the country repeatedly than any other pathogen, so the impact of long covid will be substantial.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 7, 2022 7:17:00 GMT
The investigation into Starmer won't help Johnson, whatever the outcome.
These set of results are woeful for the Tories but with a bit of early spin aided and abetted by the cowardly BBC Johnson will hang on - which is good news for Labour too.
I think an early election is doubtful and would be catastrophic for the Tories - but the question is will they be catastrophic anyway if he hangs on for dear life? Is that 30% the absolute low tide of blind tribal Tory voters?
No way he'll resign and the election threat is probably to keep the backbenchers in line.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 7, 2022 7:24:58 GMT
Our local " Orange wave" continues in nearby St Albans
Before Thursday the council had a Liberal Democrat administration, with 30 of the 58 councillors. The Conservatives have 23 councillors, with two Labour Party councillors, two independents and one Green Party councillor. Most wards will elect three councillors, with two two-councillor wards and one single-councillor ward.
However after the election, the political makeup of the council is 50 Liberal Democrat councillors with four Conservatives, one Green and one Independent.
Until 2017 St Albans was mostly tory, with a couple of Labour wins under Blair,other than that 100 years of tories. The dismal far right brexitanian Anne Main lost in 2019 to Daisy Cooper having held the seat for the Tories since 2005.
St Albans voted overwhelmingly remain and is one of the nicest towns/ cities to live in in the South East.
It's indicative of the issues this particular iteration of toryism is going to have in retaining its blue wall base.
|
|
|
|
Post by hireton on May 7, 2022 7:34:29 GMT
The result in Scotland was apparently the best SNP result in local elections since 1999 which in turn was their best ever.
Meanwhile the BBC is finding it hard to cope:
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on May 7, 2022 8:06:17 GMT
Ukraine: unanimous agreement among observers that the Russian offensive in the Donbas has stalled, and that Russia is taking heavy losses. Further, the balance now appears to be shifting, with limited Ukrainian counter attacks originally design to disrupt the Russian advance now seeming to coalesce into a more concerted advance, particularly around Kharkiv. The intention here seems to be to cut off the Russian advance to the south around Izyum, and should Ukraine mount a successful attack, there is the possibility that it will be Russian forces that end up surrounded.
All in all, the war is going dreadfully for Putin, without a single notable victory or any strategic gains. There is little or no chance that he can hold the terrain he already has, due to the losses he has sustained, and the longer this goes on the greater those losses become.
|
|
