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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 19:24:27 GMT
Conservatives have currently lost nearly half their seats in Wales (-50 losses from a current total of 66 seats won) with Labour gaining 50. Labour have gained Kirklees, won seats in Wakefield (51% of the vote there according to BBC) plus picked up some seats in Leeds. Much of the commentary is framed against the 2018 performance, which shows Labour losing vote share everywhere in England outside London, and so is leading to some rather downbeat assessments of Labour's performance, but in reality this seems to be really quite a significant and broad advance from 2019 and 2021. The narrative says no though. Tories confirmed to have lost Monmouthshire. Wales is a nightmare for them. I think you're overspinning this "broad" advance to be honest. Take out Wales and London and Labour would be close to net losses I suspect. You may be talking about general vote share changes but I don't think those have been split into regions. That's not to say there wasn't something for everyone (although precious little for Tories) and of course wherever the gains come those are gains (just the "broad" description I'm disagreeing with). The basic facts are perhaps 150 Lab Gains, more gains made by LD and maybe Greens getting half of Labour's gains. Anyone any idea why the Guardian is so different on these gains than BBC and Sky? That 150 is at the lower end of expectations I think. But the positives for Labour are the PNS (seems quite early to calculate this but I assume they had enough info by then?) at 35 Lab, 30 Con and of course the realisation that many seats will be a two horse race mainly involving Lab so Lab possibly able to squeeze LD & Green. This is combined with the clear anti Tory sentiment yesterday as well as possible targets for LD opening up which may help in the event of a hung parliament. Some good comments today about the 2018 situation where the Red Wall was still Labour but also the proviso that other seats were already in their 2019 positions and Lab seem as far away as ever from winning the ones they were chasing in 2015 outside London. The other arguments have been well rehearsed already about low turnout not indicative of a General Election but me in particular believing that Labour not getting its vote out means something, as well as what voters choosing other parties more than they were choosing Labour (on the gains at least) might mean. I certainly don't think Curtis was anywhere as upbeat about Labour as you were- see what the other experts say in due course. |
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 19:24:35 GMT
Guardian has net tory loss of 397 , net Labour gain of 255 . & councils yet to declare. That's a brilliant result by any standard. Not according to the BBC. The front page of their website is: "Tories lose hundreds of seats as Lib Dems make big gains. The Tories have lost more that 330 council seats in England, but Labour have failed to make significant progress outside London." Presumably Worthing, Southampton, Cumbria, etc. are now London boroughs. Yes, remind me again why we're trying to save it from the Tories? |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 19:25:00 GMT
Leafy surburban very very Tory Bromley Council result:
Con 36 (-14)
Lab 12 (+4)
LD 5 (+5)
Chislehurst Matters 3(+3)
Biggin Hill Independents 2 (-)
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 19:25:28 GMT
Yes when I saw that I thought there was very little chance of it, but looks like it won't be far off it. 477 losses now Guardian has net tory loss of 397 , net Labour gain of 255 . & councils yet to declare. That's a brilliant result by any standard. Guardian giving different figures to the BBC. BBC are in line with Sky so maybe Guardian treating new seats as gains regardless? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 19:29:18 GMT
Guardian has net tory loss of 397 , net Labour gain of 255 . & councils yet to declare. That's a brilliant result by any standard. Not according to the BBC. The front page of their website is: "Tories lose hundreds of seats as Lib Dems make big gains. The Tories have lost more that 330 council seats in England, but Labour have failed to make significant progress outside London." Presumably Worthing, Southampton, Cumbria, etc. are now London boroughs. I've understood for a while that for Tim Davie's BBC 'rebalancing' towards the more 'socially conservative' means denying realities. |
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 19:32:45 GMT
Openly Tory pollster James Johnson tweets:
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 19:43:25 GMT
Openly Tory pollster James Johnson tweets: Please tell me the weeping and gnashing of teeth will begin soon. Not to mention the hiss of knifes drawn from scabbards! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 19:47:54 GMT
Openly Tory pollster James Johnson tweets: Worthy of mention that the Daily Mail's election guide thing that someone posted on here a while back suggested that 350 Conservative losses in England would be "disaster". They are close to that now. (Anyone fancy re-posting it?) Will the DM have "Tory Disaster" as their headline tomorrow? (Spoiler - No). |
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Post by peterbell on May 6, 2022 20:10:44 GMT
So the Tories are now the party of the working class?
This old chestnut.
There is a strong correlation between voting Conservative and age - the older a person's age, the more likely to vote conservative:
Therefore, seeing as far fewer aged 65+ went to Uni, they appear less well educated.
The data SKy (or possibly BBC as I watched BBC for a short time!!) showed was base on a comparison of the losses and gains versus the % of the population who were graduates. There were 3 levels of % as grads. It showed that higher % of grads in the population of the electorate resulted in a significantly higher loss of Con seats and a bigger gain for Lab. Conversley, the lowest % of grads showed a gain in seats for Con and a loss for Lab. The data definately shows the correlation between higher education level and reducing support for Con in this election, rather than a correlation between age and Con although I accept that that is true as well as numerous polls have shown. |
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on May 6, 2022 20:11:18 GMT
Evening. Was on here for a while back in 2019 but then swore off taking politics seriously for a bit. Popping back to share a horrible (for LoC) thought I've had though.
Surely now is actually a very good time for BJ to call a snap election?
- Cost of living hasn't really hit yet, so can offer all sorts of BS about how they're going to Level Down bills if they get elected again.
- Durham's investigation kills partygate as an attack line by Labour stone dead. And if KS gets fined during the campaign he's basically screwed.
- LDs haven't really had time to get their act together in the south.
It would be squeeky, but I'd bet on a small OM in the circumstamces.
Can someone tell me how I'm wrong now please.
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 20:19:07 GMT
Evening. Was on here for a while back in 2019 but then swore off taking politics seriously for a bit. Popping back to share a horrible (for LoC) thought I've had though. Surely now is actually a very good time for BJ to call a snap election? - Cost of living hasn't really hit yet, so can offer all sorts of BS about how they're going to Level Down bills if they get elected again. - Durham's investigation kills partygate as an attack line by Labour stone dead. And if KS gets fined during the campaign he's basically screwed. - LDs haven't really had time to get their act together in the south. It would be squeeky, but I'd bet on a small OM in the circumstamces. Can someone tell me how I'm wrong now please. I cannot see the positives the Tories have to campaign upon. I'm not sure whether the Tories wished they'd gone earlier than 1997, but it is similar. |
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 20:32:29 GMT
First preference votes for NI Assembly:
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 20:43:18 GMT
bedknobsandboomstick
Welcome back!
The leader of the (now even more) English Nationalist and Imperialist Party will now have to choose how to exercise the royal prerogative (which he will feel should always have been his) to arrange matters in his own interest.
If Labour in England chose a leader who also broke lockdown rules (I don't know if he did) then Durham Police should take a proportionate response to any such breach. Whether English police forces have that discretion to consider whether an FPN is issued, I also don't know.
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 20:48:01 GMT
Evening. Was on here for a while back in 2019 but then swore off taking politics seriously for a bit. Popping back to share a horrible (for LoC) thought I've had though. Surely now is actually a very good time for BJ to call a snap election? - Cost of living hasn't really hit yet, so can offer all sorts of BS about how they're going to Level Down bills if they get elected again. - Durham's investigation kills partygate as an attack line by Labour stone dead. And if KS gets fined during the campaign he's basically screwed. - LDs haven't really had time to get their act together in the south. It would be squeeky, but I'd bet on a small OM in the circumstamces. Can someone tell me how I'm wrong now please. Unlikely: it would be too transparent, his credibility on promises/delivery is very low, his personal ratings are dreadful so no reason to believe he could campaign effectively. Cabinet and parliamentary party (especially MPs likely to lose their seats would likely oppose. LDs seem eminently well organised in Somerset so no reason they couldn't be in their target seats. Constitutionally, he has no grounds for asking for a dissolution this far out ( first Lascelles principle). |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 20:50:38 GMT
Evening. Was on here for a while back in 2019 but then swore off taking politics seriously for a bit. Popping back to share a horrible (for LoC) thought I've had though. Surely now is actually a very good time for BJ to call a snap election? - Cost of living hasn't really hit yet, so can offer all sorts of BS about how they're going to Level Down bills if they get elected again. - Durham's investigation kills partygate as an attack line by Labour stone dead. And if KS gets fined during the campaign he's basically screwed. - LDs haven't really had time to get their act together in the south. It would be squeeky, but I'd bet on a small OM in the circumstamces. Can someone tell me how I'm wrong now please. I don't believe the Conservative parliamentary party would let Johnson do that even if he wanted to. Prime Ministers call elections when they believe they will win. That's not immediately after a heavy kicking in local elections. 80 seat majority just 2 years and 6 months ago. I don't think the public would be impressed with the Tories calling an election when there clearly is no need to do so. |
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on May 6, 2022 20:51:55 GMT
Cheers all. Just been doing a bit of reading, and it sounds like purdah kicks in as soon as parlimwnt is dissolved, so no chance of trapping KS quite that badly during a campaign.
In this case, I think that KS should announce now that he thinks he has done nothing wrong, but if found to have broken the law he will resign as a matter of honour. After his speaches in the commons post party gate he can't possibly hope to hang on if fined, and so has nothing to loose doing this but puts pressure right back on BJ.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 20:52:46 GMT
Conservative losses by country
England 341
Scotland 63
Wales 82
Total losses so far 486, not good is putting it mildly
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 21:00:28 GMT
Guardian has net tory loss of 397 , net Labour gain of 255 . & councils yet to declare. That's a brilliant result by any standard. Not according to the BBC. The front page of their website is: "Tories lose hundreds of seats as Lib Dems make big gains. The Tories have lost more that 330 council seats in England, but Labour have failed to make significant progress outside London." Presumably Worthing, Southampton, Cumbria, etc. are now London boroughs. At the moment Labour have gained more seats in Wales than in England. Net gains are 52 across the whole of England. I can't easily find how many they gained in London, but it will leave a few dozen at most across the rest of England. So yes, bad for the Tories but hardly a Labour triumph (in England). |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 21:04:02 GMT
Conservative losses by country England 341 Scotland 63 Wales 82 Total losses so far 486, not God us putting it mildly Pardon? |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 21:35:26 GMT
Couple of quick observations on covid, thanks to Prof Christina Pagel:
There have been c 16,000 deaths in the Omicron wave, not too far short of the 18,000 in the Delta wave, which actually went on a fair bit longer. Although infections are falling fast, the ONS long covid survey is alarming, with 1.8m people (2.8% of the population) suffering from long covid. Of these, 580,000 say their symptoms don't affect their daily lives, 860,000 say they do a little, and 350,000 say their lives have been badly affected. Amazingly, 240,000 have had long covid from the first wave, more than 2 years ago, and there are 380,000 long covid cases from the Omicron wave to date. Around 8% of triple vaxxed people suffer long covid, with 5% saying the symptoms have a significant impact on their lives.
There is not data yet on the prevalence or severity of long covid from second or third infections, which is going to be one to watch. If protection against long covid wanes in a similar fashion to protection from infection, then these numbers are deeply alarming, as new waves are almost inevitable.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 21:37:08 GMT
At the moment Labour have gained more seats in Wales than in England. Net gains are 52 across the whole of England. I can't easily find how many they gained in London, but it will leave a few dozen at most across the rest of England. So yes, bad for the Tories but hardly a Labour triumph (in England).
Indeed, given the similarity of responses to other than VI questions in polling crossbreaks, it is arguably more similar to Scotland and Wales than to rEngland in terms of progressive thinking. The moribund remnants of the old heptarchies may be holding it back. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 21:45:54 GMT
Worthy of mention that the Daily Mail's election guide thing that someone posted on here a while back suggested that 350 Conservative losses in England would be "disaster". They are close to that now. (Anyone fancy re-posting it?) Will the DM have "Tory Disaster" as their headline tomorrow? (Spoiler - No). Colour me stunned, but I was right. DM headline: "Now its slippery Starmer in crisis" - a 'Beergate' reference. Daily Express even more deranged: "Bullish Boris back on track as 'red wall' keeps faith" FFS. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 6, 2022 21:54:21 GMT
[quote author=" robbiealive " source="/ You Scots have an advantage apparently. I believe her name is Nicola Sturgeon! [/quote] The SNP had another lionised leader with a fishy name. Salmon or someone. He formed his own party, Albion was it called. How is he & it doing these days. I rue the day when nationalism & constitutional proceduralism became the dominating theme in politics: nothing in it for me sport. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 6, 2022 22:03:13 GMT
Published yesterday in the Guardian. The reasoning in the last paragraph seems a bit curious.
"Durham’s former police chief has condemned attempts to get his former force to investigate Keir Starmer over allegations of Covid rule-breaking as “hypocritical” and “dangerous” and said there is no evidence the Labour leader flouted the law.
Michael Barton, chief constable of Durham until 2019, said the pressure on police to investigate was politically motivated. In his time in charge, Durham was rated as one of the best-performing police forces.
Though the Labour leader initially struggled to answer questions about the event in interviews, he said Durham police had not contacted him about drinking a beer and eating a takeaway with staff in a constituency office last year, as he said he was always “very careful” to abide by lockdown rules.
Labour said the takeaway was necessary for campaign staff, who carried on working while eating. But reports have questioned the volume of food and alcohol supplied as well as Labour’s claim there were no alternative options for dinner.
Barton said of those pressing police to investigate, including Conservative MPs and rightwing newspapers: “They are using operational policing as a political football, which is dangerous and ought to be condemned.
'For the same people who said Dominic Cummings had done nothing wrong to demand police action is both hypocriticl and dangerous. It means operational policing is being dragged into a political minefield.'
He said all the circumstances around Starmer were hugely different to those surrounding Boris Johnson’s law-breaking.
Barton said: 'The only reason that those offences should be looked at in retrospect is if the people who made the laws, broke the laws. That is why it was crucial the gatherings in Westminster were investigated.'"
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 22:06:03 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 22:17:07 GMT
At the moment Labour have gained more seats in Wales than in England. Net gains are 52 across the whole of England. I can't easily find how many they gained in London, but it will leave a few dozen at most across the rest of England. So yes, bad for the Tories but hardly a Labour triumph (in England).
Indeed, given the similarity of responses to other than VI questions in polling crossbreaks, it is arguably more similar to Scotland and Wales than to rEngland in terms of progressive thinking. The moribund remnants of the old heptarchies may be holding it back.Mercian and Oldnat - you have to look at the context of where these elections started from. 2018 was a strong base for Labour and they have improved on this. The simplest way to illustrate this is the total numbers of councillors elected in England. At time of writing: Labour 2212 v Tory 1041. Taken together with the 711 Lib Dems and 113 Greens, this doesn't suggest that England is a wholly homogeneous right-wing desert. |
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Post by pete on May 6, 2022 22:24:34 GMT
There seems to be a close correlation between the tory vote and the less well educated:- The Conservative vote is up in the places with fewest graduates, but significantly down in the places with most graduates. Labour, on the other hands, is losing votes most in places with the fewest graduates. So the Tories are now the party of the working class? Not this working-class bloke. I'd rather cut my own throat than vote Tory. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 22:27:25 GMT
Worthy of mention that the Daily Mail's election guide thing that someone posted on here a while back suggested that 350 Conservative losses in England would be "disaster". They are close to that now. (Anyone fancy re-posting it?) Will the DM have "Tory Disaster" as their headline tomorrow? (Spoiler - No). Colour me stunned, but I was right. DM headline: "Now its slippery Starmer in crisis" - a 'Beergate' reference. Daily Express even more deranged: "Bullish Boris back on track as 'red wall' keeps faith" FFS. It’s the populist way. If reality won’t play ball, make up your own. Or as the newly populist BBC might like to put it, we can’t just report reality as it’s not objective, we have to balance it with whatever unreality the brexit supporting, ‘patriotic’, white working class might have been persuaded to believe. Being seen to validate peoples beliefs, esp if they support the gvt, is more important than the truth to the BBC. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 6, 2022 22:37:47 GMT
London is, of course, one of the world's major international cities and, like most similar cities, not really representative of the country in which it is situated.
Indeed, given the similarity of responses to other than VI questions in polling crossbreaks, it is arguably more similar to Scotland and Wales than to rEngland in terms of progressive thinking. The moribund remnants of the old heptarchies may be holding it back. Mercian and Oldnat - you have to look at the context of where these elections started from. 2018 was a strong base for Labour and they have improved on this. The simplest way to illustrate this is the total numbers of councillors elected in England. At time of writing: Labour 2212 v Tory 1041. Taken together with the 711 Lib Dems and 113 Greens, this doesn't suggest that England is a wholly homogeneous right-wing desert. I started off thinking if something is homogenous then the "wholly" is implict in the word & therefore redundant. Then knowing I can't spell for tofees I checked it and found: "Homogenous is an older scientific term that describes similar tissues or organs. It has been replaced by homologous. Homogeneous is an adjective that describes similar or uniform characteristics." I guess the wholly is still redundant. It is true that in recent decades capital cities have become less representative of the countries which surround them, largely because of the changing demographics & ethnicities. But the centre & hinterland argument applies to the provinces as well. Manchester where I live had NO Tory councillors, & Labour MPs outnumber Tory ones by 2:1 & its remain vote was nearly as strong as London's. If we move to say Wigan, Leave won by nearly 2:1 with si,ilar results in Oldham & Rochdale. I use the Referendum vote as an index of "progressive" an ideological value-term which has no agreed meaning. Of course Wales voted Leave? & by this (questionable) measure is reactionary not progressive. |
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Post by graham on May 6, 2022 22:41:45 GMT
London is, of course, one of the world's major international cities and, like most similar cities, not really representative of the country in which it is situated.
Indeed, given the similarity of responses to other than VI questions in polling crossbreaks, it is arguably more similar to Scotland and Wales than to rEngland in terms of progressive thinking. The moribund remnants of the old heptarchies may be holding it back. Mercian and Oldnat - you have to look at the context of where these elections started from. 2018 was a strong base for Labour and they have improved on this. The simplest way to illustrate this is the total numbers of councillors elected in England. At time of writing: Labour 2212 v Tory 1041. Taken together with the 711 Lib Dems and 113 Greens, this doesn't suggest that England is a wholly homogeneous right-wing desert. To be fair , 2018 was not exactly a strong year for Labour - rather a set of elections when the main parties were neck and neck. |
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