oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 17:09:36 GMT
Wonder who are the "traditional unionists"? But for the moment the Unionists look to have the upper hand not that that matters when neither side seems willing to share power. |
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 17:20:45 GMT
Final seat count in Scotland:
SNP 454 (+23)
LAB 281 (+19)
CON 215 (-62)
IND 152 (-15)
LD 87 (+20)
GRN 34 (+15)
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 17:20:55 GMT
Lutfur Rahman has come back from the political grave to win the Mayoralty of Tower Hamlets Council.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 17:21:12 GMT
North Ayrshire Council - Final results
SNP 12 (+1) : SCon 10 (+3) : SLab 9 (-2) : Ind 2 (-2)
Independents insufficient to decide the administration, so will the two Unionist parties make a deal to keep the SNP out - as in Aberdeen in 2017?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 17:23:01 GMT
I know it has already been reported on here, but the tories losing Monmouthshire really is big. It's the neighbouring county to Herefordshire and always used to be solid Tory, very rural.
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 17:29:09 GMT
If SKS has to resign would end up as Reeves v Nandy imo. No Yvette Cooper? |
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 17:31:45 GMT
Interesting results.
Seismic? Yes....somewhat.
The Tories will be panicking that the ABT flame is now burning brightly across the UKs nations.
The West of England looks a lot more yellow, and the yellow blooms appearing sporadically elsewhere as well. Definitely looks like springtime for the Lib Dems.
Wales very anti Tory now, following Scotland in rejecting them.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 6, 2022 17:31:57 GMT
Conservatives gain Harrow from Labour, but lose Worcetser to NOC and see big losses as they cling on to North Yorkshire but lose new Westmorland. Some heavy Con losses in parts of the North. Yes, the Harrow result was unexpected (except perhaps to the Tories) Labour have been almost wiped out in the East of the Borough (Bob Blackman's constituency), retaining only the two two-member wards in Wealdstone and a single councillor in the three-member Edgware ward (which last elected Tory councillors in 1982!) In 2018 the result was Labour 35, Tories 28 - Labour majority of 7; in 2022 the result was Tories 31, Labour 24 - Tory majority of 7, although note that the council is now 55 rather than 63 because of boundary changes. |
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 17:34:29 GMT
On Brexit at least there would be a very easy immediate solution. Go straight for an initially unoffiical EEA, Norway type agreement. ...and get crucified at the next GE. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 17:36:01 GMT
Final seat count in Scotland: SNP 454 (+23) LAB 281 (+19) CON 215 (-62) IND 152 (-15) LD 87 (+20) GRN 34 (+15)
Guardian has Labour at +213 overall (which is roughly 100 more than SKY or BBC). Not sure who is correct. |
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 17:41:37 GMT
Provisional analysis of Scottish first preference votes compared to 2017 from BBS:
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 17:41:58 GMT
Lutfur Rahman has come back from the political grave to win the Mayoralty of Tower Hamlets Council. Most depressing result of the whole day. Previously banned from office for corrupt and illegal practices, vote-rigging, buying votes and religious intimidation. Expect trouble to come. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 17:43:01 GMT
On Brexit at least there would be a very easy immediate solution. Go straight for an initially unoffiical EEA, Norway type agreement. ...and get crucified at the next GE. I don't think so, the UK would still by outside the EU. I wouldn't expect most of the by that time dwindling band of leave voters to get the nuance. By that time as well I think a healthy economy is all anyone will care about. |
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 17:43:13 GMT
None of the previous, rather bland readings of opinion polls seem to have shown any understanding of potential LD figures in Tory strongholds in the West etc. They just read across from Lib Dems 9%, or whatever, as a national figure, but take no account of the reality of a General Election in which the Tories are under threat and generally unpopular. Given the right conditions LDs could add a significant number of MPs. Definitely. LDs gained 2 in Mole Valley DC to strengthen their control. Mole Valley GE Constituency has been Conservative since it was created in 1983, but there's every chance will go LD in the next GE. |
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 17:44:16 GMT
Durham Police to investigate Starmer. Well I did say a few days ago and no-one here believed me  |
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 17:50:50 GMT
There seems to be a close correlation between the tory vote and the less well educated:- The Conservative vote is up in the places with fewest graduates, but significantly down in the places with most graduates. Labour, on the other hands, is losing votes most in places with the fewest graduates. So the Tories are now the party of the working class? |
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 18:03:42 GMT
Lutfur Rahman has come back from the political grave to win the Mayoralty of Tower Hamlets Council. Most depressing result of the whole day. Previously banned from office for corrupt and illegal practices, vote-rigging, buying votes and religious intimidation. Expect trouble to come. Boris will be looking for some tips! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 18:05:37 GMT
With regard to the forthcoming Wakefield parliamentary by-election, there was no comfort in the Wakefield council results for the Tories. Labour increased their majority on the council, gaining two seats from the Conservative and losing one to the Lib Dems.
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Post by catmanjeff on May 6, 2022 18:10:52 GMT
There seems to be a close correlation between the tory vote and the less well educated:- The Conservative vote is up in the places with fewest graduates, but significantly down in the places with most graduates. Labour, on the other hands, is losing votes most in places with the fewest graduates. So the Tories are now the party of the working class?
This old chestnut.
There is a strong correlation between voting Conservative and age - the older a person's age, the more likely to vote conservative:
Therefore, seeing as far fewer aged 65+ went to Uni, they appear less well educated.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 18:12:53 GMT
There seems to be a close correlation between the tory vote and the less well educated:- The Conservative vote is up in the places with fewest graduates, but significantly down in the places with most graduates. Labour, on the other hands, is losing votes most in places with the fewest graduates. So the Tories are now the party of the working class? Looking at polling cross breaks by social class, it seems class plays little role in voting intention these days. Conservative and Labour have significant support across all classes. Age and education are better indicators. yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 18:13:52 GMT
Final seat count in Scotland: SNP 454 (+23) LAB 281 (+19) CON 215 (-62) IND 152 (-15) LD 87 (+20) GRN 34 (+15)
Guardian has Labour at +213 overall (which is roughly 100 more than SKY or BBC). Not sure who is correct.
SNP +23
SLab +19
SCon -61
Ind -16
LD +20
SGP +15
Oth -1
Estimated changes can vary depending on whether the comparison with the 2017 election, or the composition of councils at dissolution - after by-elections, changes in affiliation etc.
Most turnouts seem to be in the 45-50% range.
EDIT: Might have known Hireton would get in first with the BBS data! |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 18:29:00 GMT
I wonder if history is repeating itself for the Tories in Scotland and Wales? Not always barren parts of the UK for the party, a decade of Thatcherism reduced them to historic lows in these two countries. They then staged modest recoveries as Cameron detoxified the party but it would appear that Johnson has started to reverse that process and is now retoxifying them. Interesting too how the incumbents in Scotland and Wales are benefitting in defiance of electoral orthodoxy.
I wonder too if, when electoral defeat eventually comes for the Tories, which it inevitably will, we'll see them as a mirror image of the rump that they became in 1997. Almost disappeared from view in Scotland and Wales, shredded in the English cities and Southern English towns, and becoming almost exclusively a rural shires and Northern England/ Midlands towns party. Dependent for their support largely on white and predominantly affluent property owning retirees?
Their one consolation us that there are many millions in that demographic. The 30% baked in Tory vote won't erode quickly, but it's starting to become frayed and concentrated regionally.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 18:31:29 GMT
Tories have do far lost more than 460 Councillors, a very bad night for them despite the doing they want to try and put on it.
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Post by eor on May 6, 2022 18:42:40 GMT
Plaid currently +3 in councils and -4 in councillors! (BBC)
Whilst there may be significant churn from the sharp changes in other parties' support, causing Plaid to lose seats outside their target areas whilst gaining them within, I do wonder if the structural changes are skewing things quite a bit in the +/- of councillors.
The vote shares will probably be more useful this year in Wales.
(if the Swansea data is anywhere near typical then the +/- may be significantly understating the extent of the Tory decline in the south)
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 18:51:37 GMT
Tories have do far lost more than 460 Councillors, a very bad night for them despite the doing they want to try and put on it. Not a long way away from the Electoral Calculus MRP projection. They had the Tories losing 550 councillors. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 18:54:51 GMT
Hi crossbat11 54% Lab/LD plays 30% Tory.
According to his Lord AW on UKPR1, wasn't it considered one of the deadly sins to add LD and Lab together?
Joking apart, this set of Locals really confirms roughly the current state of play that was being reflected in the opinion polls. As we all know there is a danger of reading too much into Local election results, and trying to extrapolate the results on to a GE (for one there is no way Independents would do so well in GE or the minor parties) is fraught with difficulty - but we may be seeing signs of the ABT vote organising itself (in the Southern half of England and Wales at least). The warning signs are there for the Tory's, and a number of factors may be coming back to bite them - but I wouldn't write them off too soon.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 18:58:01 GMT
crossbat11
"I wonder if history is repeating itself for the Tories in Scotland and Wales? Not always barren parts of the UK for the party, a decade of Thatcherism reduced them to historic lows in these two countries. They then staged modest recoveries as Cameron detoxified the party but it would appear that Johnson has started to reverse that process and is now retoxifying them. Interesting too how the incumbents in Scotland and Wales are benefitting in defiance of electoral orthodoxy."
I don't know enough about Wales to comment on that polity, but Scottish politics has changed so much since the days of the last Tory wipeout, that comparisons to back then aren't particularly useful.
It remains the case that, amongst UK Unionist voters, the state of Lab/Con at Westminster is important in determining VI, but of greater import in FPTP elections is beating the SNP. Preferential voting in wards where, at least, one of the councillors will not be of your preferred party also changes voting patterns. The geeks from each party will be closely studying the transfer reports to see the order of preferences, in order to give clues as to how to target future campaigns.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 19:00:31 GMT
Tories have do far lost more than 460 Councillors, a very bad night for them despite the doing they want to try and put on it. Not a long way away from the Electoral Calculus MRP projection. They had the Tories losing 550 councillors. Yes when I saw that I thought there was very little chance of it, but looks like it won't be far off it. 477 losses now |
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 19:13:18 GMT
Not a long way away from the Electoral Calculus MRP projection. They had the Tories losing 550 councillors. Yes when I saw that I thought there was very little chance of it, but looks like it won't be far off it. 477 losses now Guardian has net tory loss of 397 , net Labour gain of 255 . & councils yet to declare. That's a brilliant result by any standard. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 19:19:50 GMT
Yes when I saw that I thought there was very little chance of it, but looks like it won't be far off it. 477 losses now Guardian has net tory loss of 397 , net Labour gain of 255 . & councils yet to declare. That's a brilliant result by any standard. Not according to the BBC. The front page of their website is: "Tories lose hundreds of seats as Lib Dems make big gains. The Tories have lost more that 330 council seats in England, but Labour have failed to make significant progress outside London." Presumably Worthing, Southampton, Cumbria, etc. are now London boroughs. |
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