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Post by eor on May 6, 2022 15:50:08 GMT
Caution needed with +/- on the Wales councillors as there seem to be substantial boundary changes in a number of places, including changes to numbers of wards and councillors (and the number of councillors in wards!). Also the baseline is a very poor Labour performance in 2017, 30% in the locals, compared to 49% in the GE two months later.
That said tho, blimey. First impression from scanning a few of the Swansea wards is that the Tory vote seems to have evaporated in some places, especially where Labour aren't the challengers. Losing Mayals to the Greens is remarkable.
Keeping an eye on the emerging Cardiff results, especially how the LibDems fare (against Labour as well as the Tories).
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 15:51:04 GMT
Summary of results in Wales as at 16.30:
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 16:01:34 GMT
Labour think they've won Monthmouthshire. Tories taking an absolute hammering in Wales - a blue collapse.
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Post by davwel on May 6, 2022 16:06:40 GMT
Anent our Banchory ward
Unlike ON`s experience on 2nd candidates for a party, our Aberdeenshire Council result just declared has not produced a second SCON councillor. This is despite several leaflets delivered in the last 3 weeks saying vote 1 for the newcomer and 2 for the existing SCON councillor.
On my interpretation of the transfers, the SCON lady elected first (1211 votes) had only 2 votes to transfer, while our SLAB friend eliminated next (536 1st pref votes) gave 291 to the LibDem (1040 1st pref votes), making absolutely sure she stayed ahead of the second SCON lady (852 1st pref votes). Transfers from SLAB also went to SNP (103 transfers boosting SNP`s 1158 1st pref votes).
So it`s no change for us, nor Aberdeenshire Council - so-called SCON gains are merely Independents being replaced
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 16:07:21 GMT
Conservatives gain Harrow from Labour, but lose Worcetser to NOC and see big losses as they cling on to North Yorkshire but lose new Westmorland. Some heavy Con losses in parts of the North.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 16:13:18 GMT
hireton 'Labour gains in Scotland would help it be the largest party at Westminster.'
Yes the basic objective - and obvs help avoid potentially having to rely on SNP support to govern, which would come with the obvious price tag. Given the current level of support the Tory's seem to be able to maintain in England (despite everything) it is very difficult to picture any realistic scenario where Lab has a working majority without improving on its 1 seat tally in Scotland.
Lab made reasonable gains in Glasgow - but so did the Greens/SNP, and Edinburgh will be disappointing.
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 16:15:02 GMT
mercian ...and I know that Labour are also and I just wondered if they were both potentially chasing the same voters in that group.Yes they are - and historically the Green's have tended to gain at the expense of Labour and young voters 'do have somewhere else to go' and it would be a mistake for Labour to take their support for granted. I was responding to your suggestion that the Tories should go even more anti-environmental - which I think would completely backfire. I did say that only my first two sentences were serious. The anti-environmental bit was, therefore, a joke. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 16:23:47 GMT
LD gain Gosport from.Con.
LD 16 +6
Con 10 -7
Lab 2 +1
Con England losses now approaching close to 300.
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 16:25:04 GMT
More positive news from Ukraine:
"Ukraine news – live: Russian ship Admiral Makarov ‘on fire’ near Snake Island"
All the gear and no idea. AKA Russian Armed Forces.
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Post by peterbell on May 6, 2022 16:25:43 GMT
According to Sky. at 17.15, Con have a loss of 279 seats. Earlier today Boris did his usual smirking refusal to accept reality that things were not going well. However it will be very difficult to do that now following the results from the South, SW, Scotland and Wales.
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Post by matt126 on May 6, 2022 16:25:49 GMT
Looking at the results on broad terms Tories performed very poorly in London/ Wales/ Scotland. Labour have done well in London/Wales/Scotland and Snp done well in Scotland. Tories have faired better in terms of seats in some of the red wall type areas. Remember when these elections were last held in 2018 the Tories were less popular in those areas than in 2019 General Election when they moved more to Tories which explains why they have held there own. In England the Lib Dems have done very well in picking up seats, if you consider a lot of areas in England where you might expect them to be picking up seats in South and South West no elections were held this time.
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Post by davwel on May 6, 2022 16:26:59 GMT
It`s good to find SCON relegated to 5th place in Edinburgh Council. But will the BBC R4 include that item?
I am not sure what will happen in Aberdeen City, my prediction of SNP taking over from the ruling SLAB-SCON coalition being too hasty. But SCON lost 3 seats while Labour gained 2 - Barney Crockett, ONat`s non-friend, scraped home despite having had his new painting, with a Russian naval flag in the background, getting plenty of space in our papers.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 16:32:47 GMT
Labour also gain Worthing. Starting to look like the 'Labour doing well in London but struggling elsewhere' meme doesn't really have legs. Ah but don't you know 'real, 'ordinary' voters only live in certain places in the North and Midlands. Everywhere else is just metropolitan elite  |
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 16:33:51 GMT
Final standings in Powys:
Lib Dems - 24
Independents - 17
Conservative - 14
Labour - 9
Plaid Cymru - 3
Green Party - 1
Quite significant given both MPs for the county are Tory.
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 16:34:25 GMT
BBC reporting this projection from the locals to national election now.
Lab 291
Con 253
LD 31
Others 75
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 16:38:28 GMT
BBC reporting this projection from the locals to national election now. Lab 291 Con 253 LD 31 Others 75 That looks like a minority Labour Government with Lib Dems and SNP c&s support? I wonder whether they would force through Westminster reform in the voting system etc. |
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 16:39:19 GMT
BBC reporting this projection from the locals to national election now. Lab 291 Con 253 LD 31 Others 75 That looks like a minority Labour Government with Lib Dems and SNP c&s support? At least no possibility of a rose garden coalition. 😂 |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 16:40:50 GMT
I hear that Inspector Barnaby has been put on standby for the expected wave of unexpected deaths of newly elected LD councillors in the villages of Somerset.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,580
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 16:41:09 GMT
BBC reporting this projection from the locals to national election now. Lab 291 Con 253 LD 31 Others 75 Are the BBC trolling the SNP by including them in 'others'. After all they would have more seats than the Lib Dems. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 16:41:18 GMT
LD revival boosting Lab's changes of forming a government at Westminster.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 16:46:27 GMT
I think this is a fairly decent summary of Labour's performance to date in the local elections:- www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/06/labour-local-elections-results-analysisIt's Labour centric, and more sympathetic than some of the analysis, but that's how these things tend to play out with local council elections. The fog of electoral war is notoriously dense and the total picture difficult to decipher. So many caveats; turnout, local issues, starting point vis a vis last time these councils were contested, geographical imbalance with many areas of the country not voting etc etc. Accordingly, self serving conclusions abound. Johnson's toast, Starmer's toast, great for Labour, bad for Labour...... What I like about this analysis though is that it shines some light on one or two things that have gone largely unnoticed. Firstly, we have a united lumpen right wing vote now and it's called Tory. No UKIP, Brexit, NF queering the pitch. Put simply, the Tory vote is maxed out on these figures. None to be mined elsewhere on the right. On the left, there are all sorts of Tory spooking options right across the country where votes can be borrowed and lent. This is worth noting in the light of projected national vote share. 54% Lab/LD plays 30% Tory. And that Tory 30% is the total right wing vote cast yesterday. Secondly, where Labour has done poorly it has tended to be where they are the established party of local government and are de facto long serving incumbents to be punished for local failures. Boredom factor at play too, but their poor performance in these authorities looks to have little in the way of parliamentary implications for them. Conversely, in a lot of areas where they're doing well there is much parliamentary fruit to be picked in terms of seats. |
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Post by birdseye on May 6, 2022 16:50:16 GMT
That looks like a minority Labour Government with Lib Dems and SNP c&s support? I wonder whether they would force through Westminster reform in the voting system etc. Only if they thought that it would keep the Tories out forever. After all that was the logic behind the creation of the imitation parliaments in Wales and Scotland.
The real question is whther theyy would do a deal with the SNP involving a referendum north of the border.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 16:50:21 GMT
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Post by moby on May 6, 2022 16:50:23 GMT
What in Liberia? Noticed a Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS circling round and round Brize Norton this morning at low altitude which I've never seen before. Took off from RAF Waddington. Annoyingly it was out of view for me (don't live far from there) as would have liked to have seen it. It was RAF made me do it. Well, his influence, senility and finger trouble  /photo/1 |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 16:52:40 GMT
Tories gutted in Bridgend - Lab gain from NOC
Lab 27 +10
PC 2 -2
Con 1 -12
LD 0 -2
Other 21 -6
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 16:53:56 GMT
It was RAF made me do it. Well, his influence, senility and finger trouble /photo/1  |
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Post by birdseye on May 6, 2022 16:54:46 GMT
Wonder who are the "traditional unionists"? But for the moment the Unionists look to have the upper hand not that that matters when neither side seems willing to share power. |
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Post by moby on May 6, 2022 16:56:03 GMT
There seems to be a close correlation between the tory vote and the less well educated:-
The Conservative vote is up in the places with fewest graduates, but significantly down in the places with most graduates. Labour, on the other hands, is losing votes most in places with the fewest graduates.
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 17:01:06 GMT
Tories gutted in Bridgend - Lab gain from NOC Lab 27 +10 PC 2 -2 Con 1 -12 LD 0 -2 Other 21 -6 Very ominous. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Tory wipeout in Wales in May 2024 if this sentiment continued. No where safe for them here. "The Conservatives have lost control of their only council in Wales. Labour has become the biggest party in Monmouthshire" |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 17:04:18 GMT
Conservatives have currently lost nearly half their seats in Wales (-50 losses from a current total of 66 seats won) with Labour gaining 50. Labour have gained Kirklees, won seats in Wakefield (51% of the vote there according to BBC) plus picked up some seats in Leeds.
Much of the commentary is framed against the 2018 performance, which shows Labour losing vote share everywhere in England outside London, and so is leading to some rather downbeat assessments of Labour's performance, but in reality this seems to be really quite a significant and broad advance from 2019 and 2021. The narrative says no though.
Tories confirmed to have lost Monmouthshire. Wales is a nightmare for them.
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