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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 13:50:35 GMT
PJW1961, Agree re early election which is why I don't think it was a mistake by Brown not going early.
The mistake, and it was significant, was letting the speculation gather pace.
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 13:58:06 GMT
Interesting timing on the part of Durham police. Local Masons active and well perhaps.. Same reason why the Met did not issue new fines to Tories close to an election. Purdah. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 14:00:17 GMT
My thinking is if he calls an Election now and loses the next election would have to be in 2027. To lose may not be the end of the world for the conservatives. The baton on the cost of living crisis, Ukraine and Brexit issues will be passed to Labour with no clear easy solutions. It would mean that strong opposition to a weak and SNP influenced government could result in a 1 term weak Labour regime that can be blamed for the following 15 years for any financial issues that arise. Possibly so, but that sort of long-term strategy tends not to be how MPs see it. They don't like having their jobs put at risk for no real reason (they didn't mind in 2017, because everybody expected a Tory landslide). Hence, I think they would rather remove Johnson than have an autumn election. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 14:02:24 GMT
This idea of an autumn general election has been trailed around in the press for a few weeks, obviously sourced to journalists by the Tory leadership. I have been ignoring it as likely just tactical spin (perhaps to frighten the back benchers). However, if Johnson was really tempted to try it, then history would suggest it is a mistake. In the last 100 years there have been only three occasions where Prime Minister (all Tory) with an adequate majority to carry on governing called an early general election - Baldwin in 1923, Heath in February 1974 and May in 2017. On each occasion the majority was lost and a hung parliament resulted. There are many voters who get annoyed by being dragged to the polls too often for nothing more than party political reasons (the 'Brenda from Bristol' effect). My guess is if Tory MPs really thought Johnson was going to do this, he would be removed as leader. My thinking is if he calls an Election now and loses the next election would have to be in 2027. To lose may not be the end of the world for the conservatives. The baton on the cost of living crisis, Ukraine and Brexit issues will be passed to Labour with no clear easy solutions. It would mean that strong opposition to a weak and SNP influenced government could result in a 1 term weak Labour regime that can be blamed for the following 15 years for any financial issues that arise. On Brexit at least there would be a very easy immediate solution. Go straight for an initially unoffiical EEA, Norway type agreement. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 14:04:53 GMT
'Professor Sir John Curtice
With more than 700 of the BBC's key wards now declared, we are estimating what would happen if the whole country had been voting in local elections on Thursday.
The outcome across Britain as a whole would have been:
Conservative 30%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 19%
Others 16%'
All the usual caveats as to extrapolation and still many votes to count, but this would mean Labour was the largest party.
Also with the lib-dems doing so well and most of those votes in areas with sitting tory MPs, I think the tories should be very worried.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 14:05:02 GMT
Interesting timing on the part of Durham police. Local Masons active and well perhaps.. Same reason why the Met did not issue new fines to Tories close to an election. Purdah. Obviously announcing it prior to the election would be downright corrupt but today and not in a week's time? Literally the second the BBC were having to report that this is worse for the government than they initially wanted to admit they are able to have the Durham story right next to it on the website.. It's about being able to steal any Labour thunder. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 14:07:32 GMT
'Professor Sir John Curtice With more than 700 of the BBC's key wards now declared, we are estimating what would happen if the whole country had been voting in local elections on Thursday. The outcome across Britain as a whole would have been: Conservative 30% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 19% Others 16%' All the usual caveats as to extrapolation and still many votes to count, but this would mean Labour was the largest party. Also with the lib-dems doing so well and most of those votes in areas with sitting tory MPs, I think the tories should be very worried. Seems LDs are truly back and doing better than they've been polling though of course historically they always did have more of a presence in local politics |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 14:09:17 GMT
Fryustrating watching commebtators tryimg to descrobe how STV works  |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 6, 2022 14:19:32 GMT
Same reason why the Met did not issue new fines to Tories close to an election. Purdah. Obviously announcing it prior to the election would be downright corrupt but today and not in a week's time? Literally the second the BBC were having to report that this is worse for the government than they initially wanted to admit they are able to have the Durham story right next to it on the website.. It's about being able to steal any Labour thunder.
A touch conspiratorial?
Announcing at the first opportunity is fairest thing to do.
Why is a week better than day? Why not two or five days? Given there is no 'ideal' time (whenever done someone will whinge), straight after the election is the most logical time IMO.
Of course, given his stance over the PM transgressions, if he is fined he needs to resign, otherwise he will be seen as a massive hypocrite.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 14:21:54 GMT
Sounds like Tories have lost control of Woking and Labour have lost control of Hastings, losing 3 seats to Greens.
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Post by peterbell on May 6, 2022 14:22:45 GMT
Michael Thrasher on Sky saying that based on available election results he would forecast Con 278 seats, Lab 271 seats,
LD 28 seats, SNP 50 seats. Therefore Con largest party but imo probably unable to form a government.
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 14:24:00 GMT
Latest state of play on councillors in Scotland. SNP doing better than many expected, Scottish Greens doing well, Labour coming second as expected and Tories tanking. So far Alba have lost 2 of their existing defector councillors and don't look likely to win any.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 14:25:38 GMT
Sounds like Tories have lost control of Woking and Labour have lost control of Hastings, losing 3 seats to Greens. I think you will find Labour lost control of Hastings in 2019 but no one realised it  |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 14:25:53 GMT
So, the latest summary from the Guardian says:
"Labour has achieved its best win over the Conservatives on this measure [Projected National Vote Shae]for a decade. It has a five-point lead over the Tories. It has not beaten the Conservatives in the local elections on PNS since 2016, when it had a one point lead, and this is the best result for Labour since 2012, when it had a seven point lead over the Conservatives (38% v 31%).
Labour has improved particulary within the last year. In 2021 Labour were on 29% PNS, and the Tories 36%. That amounts to a swing of 6.5%. But the swing since 2019 - when both Labour and the Tories were on 28% on PNS - is a more modest 2.5%."
While at the BBC, Laura K manages this effort:
"Local elections are not the same as general elections.
But they are a valuable snapshot based on real votes.
And these numbers suggest in that circumstance, Labour would be biggest party by a clear margin - but far short of having confidence they'd be able to form a government."
A slightly different emphasis, with the BBC really struggling to project any sense that Labour is doing quite well here.
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Post by peterbell on May 6, 2022 14:27:12 GMT
Obviously announcing it prior to the election would be downright corrupt but today and not in a week's time? Literally the second the BBC were having to report that this is worse for the government than they initially wanted to admit they are able to have the Durham story right next to it on the website.. It's about being able to steal any Labour thunder.
A touch conspiratorial?
Announcing at the first opportunity is fairest thing to do.
Why is a week better than day? Why not two or five days? Given there is no 'ideal' time (whenever done someone will whinge), straight after the election is the most logical time IMO.
Of course, given his stance over the PM transgressions, if he is fined he needs to resign, otherwise he will be seen as a massive hypocrite.
Presumably the Met will announce today that they have given out further fines re partygate. |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 6, 2022 14:29:37 GMT
A touch conspiratorial?
Announcing at the first opportunity is fairest thing to do.
Why is a week better than day? Why not two or five days? Given there is no 'ideal' time (whenever done someone will whinge), straight after the election is the most logical time IMO.
Of course, given his stance over the PM transgressions, if he is fined he needs to resign, otherwise he will be seen as a massive hypocrite.
Presumably the Met will announce today that they have given out further fines re partygate.
I'd have thought so.
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Post by somerjohn on May 6, 2022 14:32:57 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2022 14:37:59 GMT
Worth noting, but it really is time to put to bed the idea that Omicron is milder. It isn't - Then we agree the solution was always to grow our immunity. If it appears milder its because we are now immuner and many of the high risk are already dead. They can only die once and previous waves already got them. That rather undermines the effectiveness of vaccines though, if omicron is milder only because we already caught the previous ones and susceptible already died. |
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 14:38:00 GMT
Half way in Scotland in councils declared at least and at the moment the Britain Elects projections that had been doing very well look a bit wobbly (unless they accounted for this in the first set of results to declare).
SNP were supposed to be down overall but currently up 21 seats (which is the highest of the gains), LD and Greens projected small gains totaling 8 between them and already at 26. Labour projected +87 and currently at +14 (below the LD gains with Greens not far behind).
Scotland may depress the figures for Labour gains quite a bit from what was expected and possibly less than 100 for GB. Labour has had good results in winning councils, less so with councillors.
Very early in Wales but early gains for Plaid (in their strong seats) when again were predicted to lose seats.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 14:43:12 GMT
Fryustrating watching commebtators tryimg to descrobe how STV works  Same with explaining spelling I imagine.  |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 14:54:03 GMT
Half way in Scotland in councils declared at least and at the moment the Britain Elects projections that had been doing very well look a bit wobbly (unless they accounted for this in the first set of results to declare). SNP were supposed to be down overall but currently up 21 seats (which is the highest of the gains), LD and Greens projected small gains totaling 8 between them and already at 26. Labour projected +87 and currently at +14 (below the LD gains with Greens not far behind). Scotland may depress the figures for Labour gains quite a bit from what was expected and possibly less than 100 for GB. Labour has had good results in winning councils, less so with councillors. Very early in Wales but early gains for Plaid (in their strong seats) when again were predicted to lose seats.
It does look like Lab hasn't done as well as anticipated in Scotland - that will be more of a concern than the patchy performance in the North of England. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 6, 2022 14:59:57 GMT
“ Durham Police to investigate whether Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke lockdown rules when he drank beer in an MP's office last year” From the BBC. They’ve obviously found the balloons. But, crucially, were they inflated and have they been finger printed and swabbed forDNA? |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 15:01:33 GMT
Fryustrating watching commebtators tryimg to descrobe how STV works Same with explaining spelling I imagine. I plead bad typing rather than poor spelling as my real weakness on this site! |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 15:05:53 GMT
Obviously announcing it prior to the election would be downright corrupt but today and not in a week's time? Literally the second the BBC were having to report that this is worse for the government than they initially wanted to admit they are able to have the Durham story right next to it on the website.. It's about being able to steal any Labour thunder.
A touch conspiratorial?
Announcing at the first opportunity is fairest thing to do.
Why is a week better than day? Why not two or five days? Given there is no 'ideal' time (whenever done someone will whinge), straight after the election is the most logical time IMO.
Of course, given his stance over the PM transgressions, if he is fined he needs to resign, otherwise he will be seen as a massive hypocrite.
Multiple, planned parties or one drink whilst working. mmm... |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 6, 2022 15:18:01 GMT
Interesting, the Forte 11 US unmanned surveillance plane is cruising around over the western half of the middle of the Black Sea at 52,000ft and an RAF Boeing RC135W Rivet Joint surveillance plane from RAF Waddington has just transited right across the middle of the Black Sea west to east. It reached what must be the Russian territorial border just off Sochi and is now retracing its route back across the Black Sea. I assume it has an escort of Typhoons or F15's, F16's with it with their transponders turned off. Unusually there are also two NATO E3A surveillance planes one circling over near the Romanian cost and one a bit further north. That's an awful lot of surveillance assets up around Monrovia. What in Liberia?  Noticed a Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS circling round and round Brize Norton this morning at low altitude which I've never seen before. Took off from RAF Waddington. Annoyingly it was out of view for me (don't live far from there) as would have liked to have seen it. It was RAF made me do it. Well, his influence, senility and finger trouble  |
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Post by moosepoll on May 6, 2022 15:20:32 GMT
If Sir Keir is fined he will have no choice but to resign. I see no outstanding threat on the Labour backbenches to take over. Party gate could end up backfiring.
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Post by catmanjeff on May 6, 2022 15:25:26 GMT
If Sir Keir is fined he will have no choice but to resign. I see no outstanding threat on the Labour backbenches to take over. Party gate could end up backfiring.
What if the Deputy Leader gets caught up in it?
Hasn't she admitted to have been there?
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 15:26:56 GMT
Half way in Scotland in councils declared at least and at the moment the Britain Elects projections that had been doing very well look a bit wobbly (unless they accounted for this in the first set of results to declare). SNP were supposed to be down overall but currently up 21 seats (which is the highest of the gains), LD and Greens projected small gains totaling 8 between them and already at 26. Labour projected +87 and currently at +14 (below the LD gains with Greens not far behind). Scotland may depress the figures for Labour gains quite a bit from what was expected and possibly less than 100 for GB. Labour has had good results in winning councils, less so with councillors. Very early in Wales but early gains for Plaid (in their strong seats) when again were predicted to lose seats.
It does look like Lab hasn't done as well as anticipated in Scotland - that will be more of a concern than the patchy performance in the North of England.It shouldn't be. Labour are not well placed to beat the Tories in the 6 seats they hold If every SNP MP was Labour the Tory majority in Westminster would be exactly the same although Labour gains in Scotland would help it be the largest party at Westminster. But Westminster elections are really won and lost in England's 550 seats. |
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 15:27:44 GMT
If SKS has to resign would end up as Reeves v Nandy imo.
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 15:37:28 GMT
Latest position on Scotland Council seats:
It looks like the Tories are on course to lose over a fifth of their seats. In Edinburgh they have moved from second largest party to fifth place.
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Noticed a Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS circling round and round Brize Norton this morning at low altitude which I've never seen before. Took off from RAF Waddington. Annoyingly it was out of view for me (don't live far from there) as would have liked to have seen it. 