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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 12:39:15 GMT
Labour gain West Dunbartonshire, to give them their first council in Scotland. Can't comment on the significance of this.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 12:41:36 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - “I thought, ‘well, might as well go and have a look’ and lo and behold, it was Keir Starmer,” he said. “I looked inside and they were holding drinks and eating and chatting in a scene which seemed social more than anything, I didn’t see any work taking place.” It's funny that. I once saw a juggler eating his dinner. As he ate, I didn't see any evidence of juggling taking place. I think the thing to check for legally is whether they have balloons ……. 🎈 🎈 🎈 🎈 🎈 🎈 🎈 🎈 🎈…..… or not. This is pretty much the litmus test for all illegal parties and is - well, should be - punishable by death (and having your balloons popped.) |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 12:43:42 GMT
Anent my ward
Glad to announce that my predictive abilities are as poor as ever!
Will need to see the details to find out the order in which our 5 councillors were elected, but it's 2 SNP - not 2 Independents, as I'd thought - so it looks like the SNP tactic of asking folk to vote the one further down the ballot paper as No 1, worked - see my earlier comment about alphabetic ballot papers.
2 SNP : 1 SCon : 1 SLab : 1 Independent
1st preference vote share -
SNP 31.3% (2 candidates)
Ind 28.6% (3 candidates)
SCon 24.8% (2 candidates)
SLab 14.1% (2 candidates)
SLD 0.8% (1 candidate)
FA 0.4% (1 candidate - regrettably, did not stand as a "Scottish Freedom Alliance" candidate, which would have been appropriate for their vote)
Not much satisfaction there for SLab - given that they used to hold both the Westminster and Holyrood constituencies.
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 12:44:20 GMT
Labour gain West Dunbartonshire, to give them their first council in Scotland. Can't comment on the significance of this. Little sign of the demise of the SNP as yet- Tories down quite a bit but in general Lab, SNP, Green have been sharing the gains with Lab a little higher. Our Scottish folks may know if early counts favour one party more than the others. |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 12:45:38 GMT
None of the previous, rather bland readings of opinion polls seem to have shown any understanding of potential LD figures in Tory strongholds in the West etc.
They just read across from Lib Dems 9%, or whatever, as a national figure, but take no account of the reality of a General Election in which the Tories are under threat and generally unpopular.
Given the right conditions LDs could add a significant number of MPs.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 6, 2022 12:46:56 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - “I thought, ‘well, might as well go and have a look’ and lo and behold, it was Keir Starmer,” he said. “I looked inside and they were holding drinks and eating and chatting in a scene which seemed social more than anything, I didn’t see any work taking place.” It's funny that. I once saw a juggler eating his dinner. As he ate, I didn't see any evidence of juggling taking place. Not a very good juggler then. |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 12:46:56 GMT
“ Durham Police to investigate whether Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke lockdown rules when he drank beer in an MP's office last year”
From the BBC.
They’ve obviously found the balloons.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 12:48:10 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - “I thought, ‘well, might as well go and have a look’ and lo and behold, it was Keir Starmer,” he said. “I looked inside and they were holding drinks and eating and chatting in a scene which seemed social more than anything, I didn’t see any work taking place.” It's funny that. I once saw a juggler eating his dinner. As he ate, I didn't see any evidence of juggling taking place. Did you pay to watch this? I would have demanded my money back. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 12:49:23 GMT
Meanwhile - from Liveuamap - "Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area." This is a 5 year old vessel, so another mystery fire on a Russian naval vessel close to an active war zone. Earlier this week the Russian Navy became the first navy to lose a vessel to a drone attack, when two small Raptor class coastal patrol vessels were hit by Ukrainian drones. These attacks also happened around Zmiiny Island (Snake Island) where Ukraine also struck Russian radar and anti aircraft missile systems. Interesting, the Forte 11 US unmanned surveillance plane is cruising around over the western half of the middle of the Black Sea at 52,000ft and an RAF Boeing RC135W Rivet Joint surveillance plane from RAF Waddington has just transited right across the middle of the Black Sea west to east. It reached what must be the Russian territorial border just off Sochi and is now retracing its route back across the Black Sea. I assume it has an escort of Typhoons or F15's, F16's with it with their transponders turned off. Unusually there are also two NATO E3A surveillance planes one circling over near the Romanian cost and one a bit further north. That's an awful lot of surveillance assets up around Monrovia. What in Liberia?  Noticed a Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS circling round and round Brize Norton this morning at low altitude which I've never seen before. Took off from RAF Waddington. Annoyingly it was out of view for me (don't live far from there) as would have liked to have seen it. |
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Post by chrisaberavon on May 6, 2022 12:50:29 GMT
GRAHAM.
Hello to you, yes, I remember the Communist Candidate getting more votes than the majority for Robert Carr for Mitcham.
My Mother (of Cardiff) was six months pregnant with child number 7 and was the voice behind the microphone on Wallington High Street the weekend before the March 31 GE. (Dad, from Aberavon) was driving the car.
'A vote for Higgs is a vote for Wilson; Vote Labour' was the slogan on that sunny day.
There wasa buzz in the air, as there was in late April 1997.
'Never Glad confident morning again' (?)
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Post by chrisaberavon on May 6, 2022 12:51:36 GMT
Is Durham gate a threat to Keir's place?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 12:54:39 GMT
GRAHAM. Hello to you, yes, I remember the Communist Candidate getting more votes than the majority for Robert Carr for Mitcham. My Mother (of Cardiff) was six months pregnant with child number 7 and was the voice behind the microphone on Wallington High Street the weekend before the March 31 GE. (Dad, from Aberavon) was driving the car. 'A vote for Higgs is a vote for Wilson; Vote Labour' was the slogan on that sunny day. There wasa buzz in the air, as there was in late April 1997. 'Never Glad confident morning again' (?) |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 12:58:46 GMT
GRAHAM. Hello to you, yes, I remember the Communist Candidate getting more votes than the majority for Robert Carr for Mitcham. My Mother (of Cardiff) was six months pregnant with child number 7 and was the voice behind the microphone on Wallington High Street the weekend before the March 31 GE. (Dad, from Aberavon) was driving the car. 'A vote for Higgs is a vote for Wilson; Vote Labour' was the slogan on that sunny day. There wasa buzz in the air, as there was in late April 1997. 'Never Glad confident morning again' (?) AND the voice of Wallington High Street!!!!!!!!!! Impressive.  |
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 13:01:35 GMT
I guess if he is fined SKS would do the decent thing and stand down piling yet more pressure on the PM.
If he isn't fined then even better.
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 13:07:19 GMT
Crofty,
Re LDs, you totally correct where Labour where best placed the LD vote has gone nowhere, even declining in some cases.
Where they are best placed to challenge the Tories they have generally done much better so they get a good return for a modest increase in vote share.
As posted the other day they will get valuable data on which seats to target at the GE and it appears from the outside that they have regained their realism and will go after 20-30 Tory seats hard, plus maybe a few Labour.
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Post by mandolinist on May 6, 2022 13:09:10 GMT
In Bristol, just under 30% of the population turned out to vote 59% in favour of abolishing the directly elected mayor and return the city to the committee system of local government.
My prediction (for once) was totally vindicated. Quite surprised the turnout was as high as it was, since there was almost nothing happening on the campaigning front.
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Post by mandolinist on May 6, 2022 13:11:15 GMT
Somerset is looking like a full throated LD revival, if not in Paddy's old stomping ground then where would it have happened?
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 13:13:37 GMT
More on LDs I just cut and pasted the below from BBC article by John Curtis - the LDs overall vote share compared to 2018 was up 1.8% (England).
''Of particular note is the average increase of eight points in the Liberal Democrat vote across places where the party started off in second place to the Conservatives - a performance that the party will hope augurs well for winning so-called blue wall parliamentary seats where the party is breathing down the Conservatives' neck.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 13:21:20 GMT
Labour win control of Crawley, so now at +5 councils (net) in England.
Crawley tipped after a single seat changed hands.
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 13:22:31 GMT
Durham Police to investigate Starmer.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 13:25:08 GMT
Conservatives have also lost control of Wokingham and Huntingdonshire, (5 losses to LDs) with this latter loss looking something a bit unexpected. I think as the day unfolds it is going to get tougher for Johnson, with some notable collapses in sections of the Blue Wall and Labour regaining ground elsewhere.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 13:27:26 GMT
Labour also gain Worthing.
Starting to look like the 'Labour doing well in London but struggling elsewhere' meme doesn't really have legs.
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 13:28:55 GMT
Labour also gain Worthing. Starting to look like the 'Labour doing well in London but struggling elsewhere' meme doesn't really have legs. Yes, looking pretty calamitous in Wales. Tide going out for the Tories here. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 13:34:02 GMT
Interesting to see the vote for Labour getting back to 2018 levels. Looks like we will see no majority in the next GE. I wonder if Boris will consider pulling the trigger on a GE in the Autumn. As the cost of living crisis escalates he will find it hard to blame the economic failings on a Labour Government from 13 years ago. Had Brown called an early Autumn election I suspect Labour would have snuck in before they could be blamed for the 2008 economic crash. For me, the Conservative's best route to power is going early and putting some nice enticements in their manifesto. Looking at the polling trends and this election I would assume in 2 years' time Labour is the largest party and it will be a coalition or supply and demand agreement with SNP. With Brexit causing DUP to lose votes it will be very hard for the Conservatives to form a majority if we get close to the seats May got against Corbyn. This idea of an autumn general election has been trailed around in the press for a few weeks, obviously sourced to journalists by the Tory leadership. I have been ignoring it as likely just tactical spin (perhaps to frighten the back benchers). However, if Johnson was really tempted to try it, then history would suggest it is a mistake. In the last 100 years there have been only three occasions where Prime Minister (all Tory) with an adequate majority to carry on governing called an early* general election - Baldwin in 1923, Heath in February 1974 and May in 2017. On each occasion the majority was lost and a hung parliament resulted. There are many voters who get annoyed by being dragged to the polls too often for nothing more than party political reasons (the 'Brenda from Bristol' effect). My guess is if Tory MPs really thought Johnson was going to do this, he would be removed as leader. (* - I am defining 'early' as less than 4 to 5 years in). |
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Post by mandolinist on May 6, 2022 13:35:40 GMT
Just want to make clear. . .I am not "Brenda from Bristol".
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 13:37:10 GMT
steamdrivenandy The presence of the 'Sentries' so close to the war zones shows how much this is really a hybrid war where Ukrainian forces are being directed by Western surveillance and intelligence. I wonder if the current focus on the western Black Sea is related to rumours of a Russian landing from the sea near Odessa.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 13:41:03 GMT
Labour also gain Worthing. Starting to look like the 'Labour doing well in London but struggling elsewhere' meme doesn't really have legs. Ah but don't you know 'real, 'ordinary' voters only live in certain places in the North and Midlands. Everywhere else is just metropolitan elite  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 13:41:43 GMT
On another note entirely, Ben Stokes scored a century off 64 balls for Durham v Worcesterhire in the country championship and was 131 not out off 74 balls at lunch. 14 sixes so far. One over was: 6,6,6,6,6,4.
Update: He's out for 161 off 88 balls - 17 sixes, a new championship record.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 13:42:33 GMT
Interesting timing on the part of Durham police. Local Masons active and well perhaps..
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Post by moosepoll on May 6, 2022 13:49:14 GMT
Interesting to see the vote for Labour getting back to 2018 levels. Looks like we will see no majority in the next GE. I wonder if Boris will consider pulling the trigger on a GE in the Autumn. As the cost of living crisis escalates he will find it hard to blame the economic failings on a Labour Government from 13 years ago. Had Brown called an early Autumn election I suspect Labour would have snuck in before they could be blamed for the 2008 economic crash. For me, the Conservative's best route to power is going early and putting some nice enticements in their manifesto. Looking at the polling trends and this election I would assume in 2 years' time Labour is the largest party and it will be a coalition or supply and demand agreement with SNP. With Brexit causing DUP to lose votes it will be very hard for the Conservatives to form a majority if we get close to the seats May got against Corbyn. This idea of an autumn general election has been trailed around in the press for a few weeks, obviously sourced to journalists by the Tory leadership. I have been ignoring it as likely just tactical spin (perhaps to frighten the back benchers). However, if Johnson was really tempted to try it, then history would suggest it is a mistake. In the last 100 years there have been only three occasions where Prime Minister (all Tory) with an adequate majority to carry on governing called an early general election - Baldwin in 1923, Heath in February 1974 and May in 2017. On each occasion the majority was lost and a hung parliament resulted. There are many voters who get annoyed by being dragged to the polls too often for nothing more than party political reasons (the 'Brenda from Bristol' effect). My guess is if Tory MPs really thought Johnson was going to do this, he would be removed as leader. My thinking is if he calls an Election now and loses the next election would have to be in 2027. To lose may not be the end of the world for the conservatives. The baton on the cost of living crisis, Ukraine and Brexit issues will be passed to Labour with no clear easy solutions. It would mean that strong opposition to a weak and SNP influenced government could result in a 1 term weak Labour regime that can be blamed for the following 15 years for any financial issues that arise. |
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Noticed a Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS circling round and round Brize Norton this morning at low altitude which I've never seen before. Took off from RAF Waddington. Annoyingly it was out of view for me (don't live far from there) as would have liked to have seen it. 
