pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 10:31:42 GMT
London was strongly "remain". The Conservatives are doing noticeably worse in "remain" voting areas compared to "leave" on the whole. I suspect this is not necessarily due to Brexit itself, but the demographics of those areas. It is clear that socially mixed cities and middle class liberals really don't like the Johnson brand. The Cumbria result, however, is extraordinary and better for Labour than Wandsworth or Westminster is many ways. The Conservatives lost 2/3rds of their seats. I would like to hear more about what happened there. The Rwd Wall Brexit effect is unwinding. Lab vote is down a bit from 2018, but at that point Lab still held all of the Red Wall. The Lab vote is significantly up there (and the Tory vote significantly down there) on 2021, evidencing this unwinding. As at 5am there had been a swing feom Tory to Lab in the Red Wall of around 4%. Also the Westmimster result is phenomenal for Labour. Lab are up 12 seats and the Tories down 18. Lab did get close in the popular vote in 2018 but the Tories still ended up with 22 more seats. I am from Westminster (originally). This was unexpected. Don't forget that leave voting areas are much wider than the 'red wall' - go and check out the results in South Essex (Harlow, Basildon, Thurrock - Labour used to be able to win here), or Grimsby or parts of the West Midlands. It's not pretty for Labour. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 10:33:52 GMT
I do think that John Curtice and the BBC are creating a somewhat misleading narrative here. It's perfectly valid to compare performances to 2018 when these seats were last contested, but only if you place that firmly in the context of the preceding and subsequent elections, most notably (obviously) 2019. BBC headline analysis continues to be that Labour is failing to make substantial inroads outside London, but I'm afraid that is patently false. Progress needs to be measured against the last checkpoint, 2019, rather than a recent high water mark, so talk of labour settling back a little really does seem misleading. This isn't to say that this has been a great night for Labour everywhere, as it clearly hasn't been, but it does constantly need stressing that in 2018, Labour still held the Red Wall, something the BBC is strangely shy of promoting.
Completely agree re the point that this poll is indicating that Labour are closer to where they were in the so called 'red wall' in 17/18 rather than 19/21. However, I think it is fair for commentators to point out that despite everything to do with party gate and the cost of living, currently Labour doesn't seem to be benefiting to the extent where say seats such as as Basildon or Wellingborough are realistic in play. After 12 years of Tory rule it does look like elements of the electorate are still reluctant to give Labour a chance.
Yes Labour have a big mountain to climb in terms of seats to win an OM, and last night indicates they are moving in the right direction but they still have a way to go. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 10:35:48 GMT
The order should be randomised. I am aware of a number of organisations (the trade union I belong to for example) that do that. However, no chance of any sensible electoral reforms from the Tories, only party political rigging (e.g. FPTP for the Mayors and Police, Fire & Crime Commissioners). Given devolution and an existing system that disproportionately favours Labour, I really dont know how you can point the finger at the Tories. Mind you as a self confessed union member ................... If you seriously believe that the existing system disproportionately favours Labour you urgently need to do some psephological research. Also the Tories are in power and are the ones doing the rigging, so finger pointing is fairly easy. Proud member of Unison. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 10:43:39 GMT
Haven't burrowed deep into individual wards, but going on the overall results, it doesn't appear that Labour have been punished in Coventry for the ongoing bin strike nor in Sandwell for the mal-administration issues that led to central government intervention.
Good to see Labour making the slow climb back to power in my old manor of Redditch. 3 gains from the Tories. Long way to go but it will have cheered a few of my old comrades, no doubt. Fighting the good fight and keeping the flame alive for the old party in a town that had a Labour MP only 12 years ago and a Labour controlled council as recently as six years ago.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2022 10:43:48 GMT
The results now seem to continue the theme of libs resurgence and greens,er, surgence I suppose. Small numbers for the two lesser beasts, but taken some shine off labour as the obvious opposition. Lib rehabilitation continues.
I think con are busy trying to undermine Starmer all they can and that means painting him bland. But he isnt giving people a reason to want labour. It still looks like the labour failure to unite remain and therefore losing the last election as they did.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 10:46:36 GMT
I've got a theory on this. You have deprived in all parts of the country arguably as much in London as you do in the North but they tend not to vote. In London you have working middle class (at least by education levels) who are effectively "poor". They may earn decent salaries but not after you've paid the rent and other higher costs of living. Also London has shipped out most of its boomers to Kent who make up a big part of the Tory vote. They may or may not have been able to buy their own council house and benefited from house prices and selling the family silver generally and moved on either in retirement or pre retirement and part time work. The equivalent middle class in the Red Wall have a much easier life so Sunderland does not have the same imperatives as Wandsworth does. Very much about demographic change and while factors like strongly remain come into the equation, it's all a part of this same pattern. They were astonishing results in London- even before these elections, seats like Putney used to be unobtainable and you wouldn't even have considered Westminster as a target. It's been 15 years since I lived in London and when I go back it does seem to have changed a lot (mainly more horribly overcrowded) so you'd have a better idea of how somewhere like Westminster turns Labour. I know in Tooting there had already begun a trend for the previously big houses to be split into sub lets making it safe Labour a long time ago but perhaps this has spread to the rest of London as well?
I think there is a lot of truth in your point - I used to live in Wandsworth, but with children we had to move further out to get a larger house. There was just so little stock left which hadn't been broken up into flats. I work in central London, and for colleagues in their 20's housing is probably the biggest issue.
Also the govt has not really shown any love to London - and with the levelling up agenda, naturally deprived area's in London feel aggrieved and over looked. You reap what you sow. |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 6, 2022 10:49:10 GMT
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 10:58:38 GMT
Ok night for the LD's - but they are operating from a low base, as are the Greens. In the case of the latter, I think it would be wrong to assume that this is lefties sending a signal Labour or just a protest vote. I think a growing number of voters (especially young voters) are genuinely concerned and driven by environmental issues and it should not be seen as a protest vote. I agree with pretty much all your analysis. The bit quoted above made me wonder that if the Greens are especially popular among young voters won't that hurt Labour, as that's where they are strongest? Perhaps the Tories should start opening coal mines and burning down forests to encourage more people to vote Green and not Labour. (The first two sentences were serious btw) |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 11:07:55 GMT
Ok night for the LD's - but they are operating from a low base, as are the Greens. In the case of the latter, I think it would be wrong to assume that this is lefties sending a signal Labour or just a protest vote. I think a growing number of voters (especially young voters) are genuinely concerned and driven by environmental issues and it should not be seen as a protest vote. I agree with pretty much all your analysis. The bit quoted above made me wonder that if the Greens are especially popular among young voters won't that hurt Labour, as that's where they are strongest? Perhaps the Tories should start opening coal mines and burning down forests to encourage more people to vote Green and not Labour. (The first two sentences were serious btw) |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 11:14:34 GMT
The Rwd Wall Brexit effect is unwinding. Lab vote is down a bit from 2018, but at that point Lab still held all of the Red Wall. The Lab vote is significantly up there (and the Tory vote significantly down there) on 2021, evidencing this unwinding. As at 5am there had been a swing feom Tory to Lab in the Red Wall of around 4%. Also the Westmimster result is phenomenal for Labour. Lab are up 12 seats and the Tories down 18. Lab did get close in the popular vote in 2018 but the Tories still ended up with 22 more seats. I am from Westminster (originally). This was unexpected. Don't forget that leave voting areas are much wider than the 'red wall' - go and check out the results in South Essex (Harlow, Basildon, Thurrock - Labour used to be able to win here), or Grimsby or parts of the West Midlands. It's not pretty for Labour. Yes that's true. For "Red Wall" I am speaking of the general picture measured thriugh a Brexit prism. Labour has had significant problems in Essex and the W. Mids for some time that won't be arrested anytime soon. |
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 11:15:14 GMT
Very interesting. Had a quick skim through. I was surprised how well Saudi Arabia scored. It was near the top on a number of measures. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 11:16:08 GMT
Hi @crofty Your lovely Dehenna was on the TV last night - tbh I tended to zone out every time she spoke but I did notice she had three ear-piercings, obviously a new breed of Tory. Lots of new breed Tories. The days when they were mostly upper class types with some sense of duty to the country are gone. They now seem to be mainly small businessmen with an eye on their own interests. People on the make. Not presumably small business people who export to the EU. Or used to.. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 11:19:42 GMT
Analysis from our popular PM  ……… “ He said that the message he drew from the results was that people want him to get on with “the big issues that matter to them”. “ A bit subtle - but I’m sure that’s dead right….  |
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 11:19:45 GMT
However, I think it is fair for commentators to point out that despite everything to do with party gate and the cost of living, currently Labour doesn't not seem to be benefiting to the extent where say seats such as as Basildon or Wellingborough are realistic in play. After 12 years of Tory rule it does look like elements of the electorate are still reluctant to give Labour a chance.
Very true- you have a section of the 2018 red wall vote that has effectively come back but also remembering that this isn't enough to give Labour most seats and just puts them back to 2015 (although some movement in the cities that can be added on). So the 2018 vote also includes places like Swindon, which perhaps has elements of a blue wall, pretty much unchanged and that's a pattern repeated in similar places that went Tory 2010 or sooner. You've also got to ask the question, at a time when we have the most incompetent and corrupt government in living memory, if you're making relatively tepid gains are you really looking to win an election in 2 years time? I think the answer rests on how much more there is to come of bad news, inflation, run down public services and so on, plus the possibility of a new PM repositioning the Tories. |
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 11:20:24 GMT
I agree with pretty much all your analysis. The bit quoted above made me wonder that if the Greens are especially popular among young voters won't that hurt Labour, as that's where they are strongest? Perhaps the Tories should start opening coal mines and burning down forests to encourage more people to vote Green and not Labour. (The first two sentences were serious btw) I'm quite concerned about the environment myself. I'd find life very difficult to do without a car and wouldn't want to spend thousands on an electric one, but on the other hand I never fly anywhere. Anyway, it was you that mentioned that Greens were specially popular among young voters, and I know that Labour are also and I just wondered if they were both potentially chasing the same voters in that group. |
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Post by mercian on May 6, 2022 11:23:19 GMT
You've also got to ask the question, at a time when we have the most incompetent and corrupt government in living memory, if you're making relatively tepid gains are you really looking to win an election in 2 years time? I think the answer rests on how much more there is to come of bad news, inflation, run down public services and so on, plus the possibility of a new PM repositioning the Tories. Yes, if Labour don't make pretty dramatic gains in the 2023 locals, it's hard to see them becoming the next government in (presumably) 2024 . |
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Post by eor on May 6, 2022 11:25:23 GMT
Haven't burrowed deep into individual wards, but going on the overall results, it doesn't appear that Labour have been punished in Coventry for the ongoing bin strike Haven't crunched the numbers properly yet but looks like swings of about 3% from CON to LAB fairly typical here (against 2021), bit more in a few seats that were never going to change hands and a bit less in some that were close. Labour did lose the seat they were defending against the Green Party but that challenge long predates the strike. (the council has been running an increasingly normal bin service for a while despite the strike, such contention that there is now is more about how much they're spending to do so, it's certainly not a rubbish-piling-up-in-the-streets situation) |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 11:26:16 GMT
Very interesting. Had a quick skim through. I was surprised how well Saudi Arabia scored. It was near the top on a number of measures. Possibly the kind of scores people might give if they were worried their authoritarian government might be listening in.. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 11:27:14 GMT
mercian - "Very interesting. Had a quick skim through. I was surprised how well Saudi Arabia scored. It was near the top on a number of measures." Yeah, Saudi's are usually quite a phlegmatic bunch. They don't tend to lose their heads over things. Usually.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 11:31:17 GMT
mercian...and I know that Labour are also and I just wondered if they were both potentially chasing the same voters in that group.Yes they are - and historically the Green's have tended to gain at the expense of Labour and young voters 'do have somewhere else to go' and it would be a mistake for Labour to take their support for granted. I was responding to your suggestion that the Tories should go even more anti-environmental - which I think would completely backfire.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 11:32:02 GMT
Worth noting, but it really is time to put to bed the idea that Omicron is milder. It isn't -
We've confused reduced effects due to the sterling work of vaccines in stopping many people from getting very sick with the virus evolving into something milder. The latter simply hasn't happened.
This is a critically important point to understand, because we have also left behind the notion that coronaviruses don't mutate in major ways that often - covid certainly has, and if this keeps happening, there is a higher risk of immunity escape with a variant just as nasty as before, but where the vaccines are ineffective. The more infections we allow, the greater the risk of this occurring.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 11:32:34 GMT
Labour take Rosendale - looks like Labour may be doing better in the NW than NE.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 6, 2022 11:51:37 GMT
Meanwhile - from Liveuamap - "Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area." This is a 5 year old vessel, so another mystery fire on a Russian naval vessel close to an active war zone. Earlier this week the Russian Navy became the first navy to lose a vessel to a drone attack, when two small Raptor class coastal patrol vessels were hit by Ukrainian drones. These attacks also happened around Zmiiny Island (Snake Island) where Ukraine also struck Russian radar and anti aircraft missile systems. Interesting, the Forte 11 US unmanned surveillance plane is cruising around over the western half of the middle of the Black Sea at 52,000ft and an RAF Boeing RC135W Rivet Joint surveillance plane from RAF Waddington has just transited right across the middle of the Black Sea west to east. It reached what must be the Russian territorial border just off Sochi and is now retracing its route back across the Black Sea. I assume it has an escort of Typhoons or F15's, F16's with it with their transponders turned off. Unusually there are also two NATO E3A surveillance planes one circling over near the Romanian cost and one a bit further north. That's an awful lot of surveillance assets up around Monrovia. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2022 12:01:03 GMT
oldnat I did say should. My opinion of the regime's property is the same as yours
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 12:01:12 GMT
LBC claiming that Starmer is now to be investigated by Durham Police. Best wait for confirmation though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 12:03:51 GMT
26 seats declared so far out of 110 in Somerset.
CON 4
LAB 4
LDEM 18
Looking pretty positive for LDEM. This one might sting CON a bit.
Update:
54 seats declared
CON 12
LAB 4
LDEM 38
Big win for LDEM on the cards?
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Post by moosepoll on May 6, 2022 12:07:26 GMT
Interesting to see the vote for Labour getting back to 2018 levels. Looks like we will see no majority in the next GE. I wonder if Boris will consider pulling the trigger on a GE in the Autumn. As the cost of living crisis escalates he will find it hard to blame the economic failings on a Labour Government from 13 years ago. Had Brown called an early Autumn election I suspect Labour would have snuck in before they could be blamed for the 2008 economic crash. For me, the Conservative's best route to power is going early and putting some nice enticements in their manifesto. Looking at the polling trends and this election I would assume in 2 years' time Labour is the largest party and it will be a coalition or supply and demand agreement with SNP. With Brexit causing DUP to lose votes it will be very hard for the Conservatives to form a majority if we get close to the seats May got against Corbyn.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 6, 2022 12:26:01 GMT
LBC claiming that Starmer is now to be investigated by Durham Police. Best wait for confirmation though. … “I thought, ‘well, might as well go and have a look’ and lo and behold, it was Keir Starmer,” he said. “I looked inside and they were holding drinks and eating and chatting in a scene which seemed social more than anything, I didn’t see any work taking place.” Times |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 12:33:54 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - “I thought, ‘well, might as well go and have a look’ and lo and behold, it was Keir Starmer,” he said. “I looked inside and they were holding drinks and eating and chatting in a scene which seemed social more than anything, I didn’t see any work taking place.” It's funny that. I once saw a juggler eating his dinner. As he ate, I didn't see any evidence of juggling taking place.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 12:37:39 GMT
@isa - where are you getting live seat count information from?
I've been waiting for a Lib Dem revival in the SW. I think this is where it starts to get really tough for the Conservatives. While the Red Wall took all the attention in 2019, it was the implosion of the Orange Fortresses in 2015 that opened up a path for a majority.
I get the feeling that what we are seeing now isn't necessarily the guaranteed end of the Conservatives, but with London, Scotland, parts of the Red Wall, possibly Wales, and maybe the S west all closing down on them, the pathway of options into No 10 is shrinking rapidly.
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………
