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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 8:04:29 GMT
Were you up for Westminster?
😁😉👍
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 8:06:05 GMT
Slight change of tack, but for those interested in energy prices.
Domestic heating oil costs affect around 1.5m households in the UK, with 5 - 6m citizens affected. These are largely in rural areas where ambient temperatures tend to be a little lower than urban centres and where much of the housing stock is older and poorly insulated.
The current price cap for gas is around 7.37p/kWh, with an expected 40% increase in October bringing that to an eye watering 10.13p.
Our latest oil buying group has secured a discount price for heating oil of £1.04/litre, which translates as around 11.8p/kWh. These are staggering prices, and are meaning households face bills of over £1,000 to fill a decent size tank.
Whether these prices continue to rise is deeply concerning to households in these areas, who are already suffering significantly higher prices than gas consumers will face even after the next big price rise in October, and the government has shown no signs at all to cap heating oil prices or offer any kind of relief.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 8:09:03 GMT
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Post by jib on May 6, 2022 8:14:00 GMT
Looks like a very good day for Labour in England.
Looking forward to the Wales results and I don't anticipate good news for the Tories here in some of the places they hold seats like Wrexham, Bridgend etc.
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 8:18:38 GMT
In the wilds of Mole Valley vote counting won't begin until 11.30. No doubt due to the huge area covered and the impassability of roads due to cuts as a result of 'levelling down'.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2022 8:19:01 GMT
pjw1961 - "Locals - so far Labour doing spectacularly well in London (I thought Westminster might be beyond them), less well in rest of England - but (reluctant as the BBC seems to be to admit it) somewhat better than forecast I think?" Yes, I'm trying to get my head around the results, with the BBC offering a determinedly downbeat assessment of Labour performance, although gaining councils outside London like S'hampton and Cumberland, while holding those that Tories had eyes on (S'land) seems to be a better than expected night. Labour list has posted this: "Interestingly, the party also reckons it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington." Can't vouch for it's accuracy, but that sounds somewhat more encouraging for them than I'm getting from the BBC. The BBC won't be able to argue about the final results but by then they'll probably be buried on the politics page and as was mentioned above 'staying still ' in certain areas is good for Labour as the seats were last contested in '18 which you won't see in BBC analysis of course. Their task, handed down from their Tory masters, is simply to downplay opposition performance to prevent the public getting a sense of inevitable momentum against the government. Despicable for a public service broadcaster of course but par for the course alas for the BBC news organisation these days. |
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 8:23:31 GMT
Looks like a very good day for Labour in England.Looking forward to the Wales results and I don't anticipate good news for the Tories here in some of the places they hold seats like Wrexham, Bridgend etc. I don't see how you can say that when Labour have net lost seats outside London. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 6, 2022 8:24:48 GMT
Some really big discrepancies in the seat count reporting between media outlets. As of 8.30am, the BBC is showing (seats won, net gain/loss) Conservative 535, -124 Labour 1,189, +38 Lib Dem 257, +57 The Guardian has Conservative 510,-132, Labour 1,113, +95 Lib Dem 239, +40 Sky News Conservative 510,-115, Labour 1,113, +41 Lib Dem 239, +44 The Guardian and Sky are also showing Cumberland as a gain for Labour (as it should be) so have Labour on net +4 councils, rather than the +3 the BBC report. I do find it slightly strange that there can be so many deviations and no two outlets seem to share the same numbers. And wildly different interpretations too. Kuennsberg on Radio 2 at 7.00am said that the results so far were no more than a "rebuff" for the Tories and what you might expect mid-term "after 12 years". Certainly no "Armageddon" she thought. Labour had made "some progress" and, with some thinly disguised disdain in her voice, said that the party were "talking about a turning point". She had the good grace not to laugh. No mention of Wandsworth and Westminster and nothing on the Lib Dem and Green gains. Well at least Andrew Neil thinks "she's a very fine journalist". |
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 8:25:33 GMT
The Britain Elects projection is looking very good at the moment overall and to be fair to the pollsters they've got the ball park and trends spot on- predicting easier for Labour in London than elsewhere- even if Yougov missed some of the Labour London gains they did have direction of travel.
Best to leave the analysis until all the results are in and we have the final picture. That James Johnson tweet is relevant to point out the differences nationally in 2018 and there will be plenty of other factors in play. At the moment projected national share is still quite close I think (based on comments rather than seeing any figures) with Lab a bit ahead as far as I can glean.
"Mixed results" I'd say. Probably not bad enough to get rid of Johnson but depends on Tory attitudes to the London results.
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 8:35:48 GMT
A Labour lead on Projected National Share (PNS) of around 5% and the LDs nearer 15% is in line with sensible expectations; Greens up a tad expected also.
I had hoped that the PNS lead may be 8% ish which would have been a good night for Labour but 5% is decent.
Scotland may swing more, bringing the PNS up but as we on here all agree a separate seat projection for Scotland in addition to E&W is the better way to assess. (PC complicates Wales but still ok to put them in with England for projections as near enough imo).
Finally, worth repeating my view that these elections are not mid-term due to Covid but similar to 18 months in.
I would be surprised if 2023 locals do not bring a bigger swing to Labour after a year of costs of living issues, although a change of PM would impact potentially.
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 8:40:55 GMT
At the last Euro elections North West had so many candidates that even the "R" for Tommy Robinson ended up on the other side of a folded ballot on the postal votes. I spent 5 minutes trying to find it to prove to my wife he was standing. Poor Tommy- not having much luck at the moment- seems to be getting nicked at every airport he ends up in whichever part of the world he happens to be in. if he's not in prison, he does at least have Luton v Watford next season to look forward to show he's still got it. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 8:45:33 GMT
Well Locals have a tendency to be a bit of a mixed bag - the combination of local/national factors and low turnout tends to give some narrative of success for each party to spin.
It does look like that Labour are doing well where they were already doing well - London. The results in England as a whole (when you look at Sunderland, Cumberland, Wolverhampton etc) actually reflect the picture being painted by current OP's - they look like they are back in the 'red wall seats' to where they were in 17/18 (when they held those seats). In addition, Labour are likely to make gains in Scotland and I'm assuming Wales will follow a similar pattern to England. Overall this would indicate that Labour are probably currently in a position to become the largest party - but aren't doing well enough to be in OM territory.
Ok night for the LD's - but they are operating from a low base, as are the Greens. In the case of the latter, I think it would be wrong to assume that this is lefties sending a signal Labour or just a protest vote. I think a growing number of voters (especially young voters) are genuinely concerned and driven by environmental issues and it should not be seen as a protest vote. In case of the LD's, I think the Hull result is actually a bit of distraction, as the main thing they will be happy with is the signs of revival in areas that used be their hinterland but fell to the Tories in '15. Its Tory seats they will hope to gain, and they will want to court Labour voters to vote tactically - they wont want to position themselves as anti-Labour,
I think this is a bad night for the Tories - based primarily on what are the good points for Labour. However, they will take succour from the fact that Labour does not seem to be inspiring much enthusiasm from voters. From Johnson's perspective, if MP's think the losses are due to him then he may be in trouble. But the mixed bag of results may not provide a strong enough or consistent rationale for ousting him.
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2022 8:50:19 GMT
Steve - re NI, APNI, Greens and PBP designate as neither so there wont be 'nationalist' majority.
In the latest polls the first preference %ages added up for the 3 Unionist parties and the 2 nationalist ones where very close.
Both look set to be in the high 30s, though, so along way from a majority.
No border poll this decade and the Nationalist strategy seems to be to see how Scotland plays out.
Should Scotland leave the UK, it would be a matter of time before NI left.
The only question for me would be if it joined Ireland or became it own state with guarantees from ROI and UK for the traditions or some such arrangement.
Should Scotland still be in the UK in the mid 30s the NI demographic time bomb will be close to tipping point and I would expect a big push from the Nationalist in the second half of the decade.
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 9:09:24 GMT
Good Morning all from Premiership Town in Bournemouth boooo! Thanks to a Russian oligarch and a linesman who should have gone to Specsavers |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 9:11:27 GMT
The order should be randomised. I am aware of a number of organisations (the trade union I belong to for example) that do that. However, no chance of any sensible electoral reforms from the Tories, only party political rigging (e.g. FPTP for the Mayors and Police, Fire & Crime Commissioners). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 9:42:36 GMT
I imagine the percentage who actually vote at all is pretty low (any figures for that?) so I think that reading too much 8nto local election results is a somewhat fruitless activity.
And, whilst that is generally true anyway, I doubt if Covid followed by Ukraine will have increased participation in local issues.
(Anyway, that’s what Rosie 🌹 thinks…)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 9:43:56 GMT
Early days, but looks like the tories may suffer in Scotland as was anticipated
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 9:46:17 GMT
While Wandsworth is getting most of the coverage - the win in Westminster was much more impressive and given the demographics of the council a tougher target.
Given Johnson used to be a mayor - it is quite outstanding what has happened to the Tories in the capital over the past few years. Perhaps the Tories should worry that this is a harbinger for the political landscape of the country post Johnson?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 9:49:53 GMT
I imagine the percentage who actually vote at all is pretty low (any figures for that?) so I think that reading too much 8nto local election results is a somewhat fruitless activity. And, whilst that is generally true anyway, I doubt if Covid followed by Ukraine will have increased participation in local issues. (Anyway, that’s what Rosie 🌹 thinks…) Turnout out is about 30% give or take. In my Colchester watch area it was 32%, down from 34% in 2021. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 6, 2022 9:51:26 GMT
I imagine the percentage who actually vote at all is pretty low (any figures for that?) so I think that reading too much 8nto local election results is a somewhat fruitless activity. And, whilst that is generally true anyway, I doubt if Covid followed by Ukraine will have increased participation in local issues. (Anyway, that’s what Rosie 🌹 thinks…) @crofty Your lovely Dehenna was on the TV last night - tbh I tended to zone out every time she spoke but I did notice she had three ear-piercings, obviously a new breed of Tory. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 9:55:48 GMT
Sorry all - was up into the early hours of the morning and just catching up again after sleep
As a native of Westminster Council the result there is the most striking one so far. Lab 31(+12) Con 23 (-18) with 2 result to come is quite something.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 9:56:26 GMT
While Wandsworth is getting most of the the coverage - the win in Westminster was a much more impressive and given the demographics of the council a tougher target.
Given Johnson used to be a mayor - it is quite outstanding what has happened to the Tories in the capital over the past few years. Perhaps the Tories should worry that this is a harbinger for the political landscape of the country post Johnson? London was strongly "remain". The Conservatives are doing noticeably worse in "remain" voting areas compared to "leave" on the whole. I suspect this is not necessarily due to Brexit itself, but the demographics of those areas. It is clear that socially mixed cities and middle class liberals really don't like the Johnson brand. The Cumbria result, however, is extraordinary and better for Labour than Wandsworth or Westminster in many ways. The Conservatives lost 2/3rds of their seats. I would like to hear more about what happened there. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 9:57:38 GMT
I do think that John Curtice and the BBC are creating a somewhat misleading narrative here. It's perfectly valid to compare performances to 2018 when these seats were last contested, but only if you place that firmly in the context of the preceding and subsequent elections, most notably (obviously) 2019. BBC headline analysis continues to be that Labour is failing to make substantial inroads outside London, but I'm afraid that is patently false. Progress needs to be measured against the last checkpoint, 2019, rather than a recent high water mark, so talk of labour settling back a little really does seem misleading.
This isn't to say that this has been a great night for Labour everywhere, as it clearly hasn't been, but it does constantly need stressing that in 2018, Labour still held the Red Wall, something the BBC is strangely shy of promoting.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 10:04:42 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - "Your lovely Dehenna was on the TV last night - tbh I tended to zone out every time she spoke but I did notice she had three ear-piercings, obviously a new breed of Tory." Nothing in the nose? That surprises me. The new breed of Tories she represents do tend to be led by the halter somewhat.
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 10:06:28 GMT
While Wandsworth is getting most of the the coverage - the win in Westminster was a much more impressive and given the demographics of the council a tougher target.
Given Johnson used to be a mayor - it is quite outstanding what has happened to the Tories in the capital over the past few years. Perhaps the Tories should worry that this is a harbinger for the political landscape of the country post Johnson? London was strongly "remain". The Conservatives are doing noticeably worse in "remain" voting areas compared to "leave" on the whole. I suspect this is not necessarily due to Brexit itself, but the demographics of those areas. It is clear that socially mixed cities and middle class liberals really don't like the Johnson brand. The Cumbria result, however, is extraordinary and better for Labour than Wandsworth or Westminster is many ways. The Conservatives lost 2/3rds of their seats. I would like to hear more about what happened there. The Rwd Wall Brexit effect is unwinding. Lab vote is down a bit from 2018, but at that point Lab still held all of the Red Wall. The Lab vote is significantly up there (and the Tory vote significantly down there) on 2021, evidencing this unwinding. As at 5am there had been a swing feom Tory to Lab in the Red Wall of around 4%. Also the Westmimster result is phenomenal for Labour. Lab are up 12 seats and the Tories down 18. Lab did get close in the popular vote in 2018 but the Tories still ended up with 22 more seats. I am from Westminster (originally). This was unexpected. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 10:08:47 GMT
Someone upthread mentioned the Cumberland result. This was a stunning win for Labour, and as far as I am aware there were no outstanding local issues that could explain such a clear reverse for the Conservatives. The area covers three Tory seats which would now be at risk if this carried over into a GE. So yes, I think the Cumberland result really should be being given more prominence as it is more significant in many ways than the London wins.
It's also worth flagging up that Labour's performance in the NE has been pretty good. We had a string on Tory ministers appearing in Sunderland in recent days, including the PM and Chancellor, so it was clearly on their hit list, but to no avail. Labour have effectively stopped the seat losses in the NE and the situation seems stable now for them.
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Post by birdseye on May 6, 2022 10:26:38 GMT
The order should be randomised. I am aware of a number of organisations (the trade union I belong to for example) that do that. However, no chance of any sensible electoral reforms from the Tories, only party political rigging (e.g. FPTP for the Mayors and Police, Fire & Crime Commissioners). Given devolution and an existing system that disproportionately favours Labour, I really dont know how you can point the finger at the Tories. Mind you as a self confessed union member ................... |
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Post by shevii on May 6, 2022 10:27:03 GMT
While Wandsworth is getting most of the coverage - the win in Westminster was much more impressive and given the demographics of the council a tougher target.
Given Johnson used to be a mayor - it is quite outstanding what has happened to the Tories in the capital over the past few years. Perhaps the Tories should worry that this is a harbinger for the political landscape of the country post Johnson? I've got a theory on this. You have deprived in all parts of the country arguably as much in London as you do in the North but they tend not to vote. In London you have working middle class (at least by education levels) who are effectively "poor". They may earn decent salaries but not after you've paid the rent and other higher costs of living. Also London has shipped out most of its boomers to Kent who make up a big part of the Tory vote. They may or may not have been able to buy their own council house and benefited from house prices and selling the family silver generally and moved on either in retirement or pre retirement and part time work. The equivalent middle class in the Red Wall have a much easier life so Sunderland does not have the same imperatives as Wandsworth does. Very much about demographic change and while factors like strongly remain come into the equation, it's all a part of this same pattern. They were astonishing results in London- even before these elections, seats like Putney used to be unobtainable and you wouldn't even have considered Westminster as a target. It's been 15 years since I lived in London and when I go back it does seem to have changed a lot (mainly more horribly overcrowded) so you'd have a better idea of how somewhere like Westminster turns Labour. I know in Tooting there had already begun a trend for the previously big houses to be split into sub lets making it safe Labour a long time ago but perhaps this has spread to the rest of London as well? |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 10:30:04 GMT
Meanwhile - from Liveuamap - "Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area."
This is a 5 year old vessel, so another mystery fire on a Russian naval vessel close to an active war zone.
Earlier this week the Russian Navy became the first navy to lose a vessel to a drone attack, when two small Raptor class coastal patrol vessels were hit by Ukrainian drones. These attacks also happened around Zmiiny Island (Snake Island) where Ukraine also struck Russian radar and anti aircraft missile systems.
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Post by birdseye on May 6, 2022 10:31:01 GMT
I imagine the percentage who actually vote at all is pretty low (any figures for that?) so I think that reading too much 8nto local election results is a somewhat fruitless activity. And, whilst that is generally true anyway, I doubt if Covid followed by Ukraine will have increased participation in local issues. (Anyway, that’s what Rosie 🌹 thinks…) @crofty Your lovely Dehenna was on the TV last night - tbh I tended to zone out every time she spoke but I did notice she had three ear-piercings, obviously a new breed of Tory.Lots of new breed Tories. The days when they were mostly upper class types with some sense of duty to the country are gone. They now seem to be mainly small businessmen with an eye on their own interests. People on the make. |
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