eor
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Post by eor on May 6, 2022 0:50:50 GMT
RAF - London drift as well isn't it? All three parliamentary seats in Wandsworth are held by Labour so would it be a great shock if they take the council? But then as others have said in recent days, some places are more totemic than others, even if based on decades-old sentiment.
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 0:57:20 GMT
RAF - London drift as well isn't it? All three parliamentary seats in Wandsworth are held by Labour so would it be a great shock if they take the council? But then as others have said in recent days, some places are more totemic than others, even if based on decades-old sentiment. Yes Lab would expect to take Wandsworth. They should really take it. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 1:05:05 GMT
A big question after tonight for Starmer is how he finds a way to win back Labour Brexiteers. In the middle of a serious cost of living crisis (check your energy bills folks!) and against a PM who has been convicted of a (minor) criminal offence, and may be convected of many more offences of the same type; these voters are still backing Boris because he "delivered" Brexit.
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Post by graham on May 6, 2022 1:08:02 GMT
A big question after tonight for Starmer is how he finds a way to win back Labour Brexiteers. In the middle of a serious cost of living crisis (check your energy bills folks!) and against a PM who has been convicted of a (minor) criminal offence, and may be convected of many more offences of the same type; these voters are still backing Boris because he "delivered" Brexit. Though not to the extent they were a year ago! |
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Post by vgfleet on May 6, 2022 1:23:27 GMT
A big question after tonight for Starmer is how he finds a way to win back Labour Brexiteers. In the middle of a serious cost of living crisis (check your energy bills folks!) and against a PM who has been convicted of a (minor) criminal offence, and may be convected of many more offences of the same type; these voters are still backing Boris because he "delivered" Brexit. Very unlikely Starmer can as he is to closely linked to it as is Boris with remainers. |
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Post by graham on May 6, 2022 1:27:31 GMT
Nearly 600 seats now declared - Lab -4 Con - 28 LD +16 Grn+12 RA +4
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 1:36:37 GMT
I've posted my full Colchester analysis over on the Local Elections thread. Headline results are that Labour and Lib Dems made one gain each. The Labour one was fairly sensational (their vote share rose from 18% to 40.8%, albeit it was Independent previously). The weirdness of FPTP was on display as Labour finished third in vote share but joint top in councillor numbers (Con 6, Lab 6, Lib Dem 5, Green 1 - the Council elects by thirds).
There is likely to be a change of council control from Con + Ind to Lab/Lib Dem/Green 'traffic light' coalition - the parties would need to negotiate the latter, but they have done it before.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2022 1:40:53 GMT
A big question after tonight for Starmer is how he finds a way to win back Labour Brexiteers. In the middle of a serious cost of living crisis (check your energy bills folks!) and against a PM who has been convicted of a (minor) criminal offence, and may be convected of many more offences of the same type; these voters are still backing Boris because he "delivered" Brexit.
Not so many voters 'backing Boris' down here, since quite a few areas which have never seen a Labour councillor have got one tonight. South coast and London as well.
In crude terms, the north-south divide seems to be widening (perhaps just 2018 results adjusting to Brexit/Boris being in charge now).
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Post by vgfleet on May 6, 2022 1:50:54 GMT
A big question after tonight for Starmer is how he finds a way to win back Labour Brexiteers. In the middle of a serious cost of living crisis (check your energy bills folks!) and against a PM who has been convicted of a (minor) criminal offence, and may be convected of many more offences of the same type; these voters are still backing Boris because he "delivered" Brexit.
Not so many voters 'backing Boris' down here, since quite a few areas which have never seen a Labour councillor have got one tonight. South coast and London as well.
In crude terms, the north-south divide seems to be widening (perhaps just 2018 results adjusting to Brexit/Boris being in charge now).
Where I live (Pembrokeshire move 2019 from Croydon ), the ward which is primarily council estate, did not have a labour candidate on the paper. Just Con and 2 Ind. Croydon Council (labour), screwed up big time before covid (bankruptcy). Could be an outlier in London. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2022 6:04:27 GMT
Um...News last night on Ch4 and this morning on R4 seems to suggest Ukraine is starting to counter attack against Russian positions in the East. Last night suggested they were trying to encircle some Russian units. This morning's contribution arguing despite the withdrawal from attempted operations all over Ukraine to concentrate in the East, Russia continues to be over extended and fighting in more places than it has troops for.
Yesterday they said the new Russian secret plan for taking Mariupol is ....to ask Ukraine to order its trooops there to surrender.
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Post by thylacine on May 6, 2022 6:26:27 GMT
Westminster has fallen!
Just wanted to type that 😂
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 6:28:08 GMT
Locals - so far Labour doing spectacularly well in London (I thought Westminster might be beyond them), less well in rest of England - but (reluctant as the BBC seems to be to admit it) somewhat better than forecast I think? Wales has been forecast to be good for Labour and in Scotland they will likely flip with the Tories for second place, so when all the votes are in this could end up being a reasonable night for Starmer.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2022 6:50:35 GMT
It appears at the moment the results broadly reflect current opinion polls.
The Welsh and Scottish results will be interesting to see if they confirm the accuracy of current polling
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 6:51:19 GMT
Seems to be a reasonable set of results for Labour so far, but not quite the good performance I stuck out my neck on. I am a little surprised that there has been no comment on what appears to be a rather stunning Labour performance in Cumberland. It's a new council, and while the BBC show this as 12 seat gains from Labour, they don't show it as a council gain, despite Labour moving into majority control from a notional NOC (Con notionally 2 seats short of a majority, now Labour firm control). In my view this should be a 4th Labour council gain, this time in the north.
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 6:51:27 GMT
Tory pollster James Johnson giving some advice about interpreting "Red Wall" results:
The performance of the Lib Dems in "Blue Wall" areas will be significant as well.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 6:57:36 GMT
pjw1961 - "Locals - so far Labour doing spectacularly well in London (I thought Westminster might be beyond them), less well in rest of England - but (reluctant as the BBC seems to be to admit it) somewhat better than forecast I think?" Yes, I'm trying to get my head around the results, with the BBC offering a determinedly downbeat assessment of Labour performance, although gaining councils outside London like S'hampton and Cumberland, while holding those that Tories had eyes on (S'land) seems to be a better than expected night. Labour list has posted this: "Interestingly, the party also reckons it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington." Can't vouch for it's accuracy, but that sounds somewhat more encouraging for them than I'm getting from the BBC.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2022 6:58:33 GMT
Spaffer apologist Oliver Dowden doing the rounds downplaying a disastrous night for the Tories.
His argument is that the results don't show Labour on route to power.
Actually extrapolating from the results using the same format as when these elections were last held shows Labour on around 38% and the Tories on 33% ( consistent with recent polling) the primary difference is the lib dems who as I anticipated have done far better than national polling extrapolating from their results shows a national share around 16%.
These figures would see Labour short by a handful of an overall majority with the lib dems winning around 25-35 seats.
Never mind Tories Oliver says the " benefits" from leaving the European union will turn around public opinion!
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Post by hireton on May 6, 2022 6:59:18 GMT
RAF"Croydon - Fairly unexpected for Lab to be in trouble here but it is a marginal borough." I seem to recall the local authority became insolvent ( or whatever the correct term for councils is!) So possibly some exceptional local circumstances in play?
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Post by chrisaberavon on May 6, 2022 7:04:19 GMT
Good Morning all from Premiership Town in Bournemouth where we had no elections yesterday. About number 100 on Labour targets, if we are looking at vote shares from 2019.
IMO (for what little that might be worth) the results looking a little like mid terms under Neil Kinnock
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2022 7:25:45 GMT
Tory MP, Adam Afriye, is facing bankruptcy over an unpaid tax bill of £3m.
Never mind switching to value range food and cancelling his Netflix account should sort it.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2022 7:33:49 GMT
It's entirely plausible that tomorrow we will see a majority for non unionist parties in northern Ireland.
This should automatically under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement trigger a border poll on reunification.
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 7:34:26 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle n did my first. It took 5 lines n if I did the same word as you it was one that only has an American usage. Is it always as parochial. I want to expand my vocab not sully it with American sports jargon. I thought it was all Greek, myself 😀 did it in 3. and here is today’s Wordle 321 3/6 ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟩 🟨🟨⬜⬜🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 No, it was definitely the American 'Homer' (Simpson) |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 7:34:44 GMT
Tory MP, Adam Afriye, is facing bankruptcy over an unpaid tax bill of £3m. Never mind switching to value range food and cancelling his Netflix account should sort it. Potential by-election if so. What's the betting a Tory donor pays the debt for him. "By section 427 of the Insolvency Act 1986 a debtor who is adjudged bankrupt is incapable of being elected to or of sitting or voting in the House of Commons, or on any committee thereof, until the adjudication is annulled, or until he obtains his discharge from the court. A court which adjudges a Member bankrupt forthwith certifies the fact to the Speaker. 'The disqualification of a Member adjudged bankrupt ceases on his discharge (except where the adjudication is annulled or the award is recalled or reduced without the individual having been first discharged) or in the excepted case on the annulment recall or reduction. Where a Member’s disqualification continues for a period of six months, the Speaker is informed and his seat is thereupon vacated. A new writ may be then moved. The disqualification ceases: 1. except where the adjudication is annulled without the individual having been first discharged, on the discharge of the individual; and 2. in the excepted case, on the annulments." |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 7:34:56 GMT
Tory MP, Adam Afriye, is facing bankruptcy over an unpaid tax bill of £3m. Never mind switching to value range food and cancelling his Netflix account should sort it. Isn't that old news? - reported months ago, when he was given time to sell a £3million house to settle. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 7:37:54 GMT
Some really big discrepancies in the seat count reporting between media outlets.
As of 8.30am, the BBC is showing (seats won, net gain/loss)
Conservative 535, -124
Labour 1,189, +38
Lib Dem 257, +57
The Guardian has
Conservative 510,-132,
Labour 1,113, +95
Lib Dem 239, +40
Sky News
Conservative 510,-115,
Labour 1,113, +41
Lib Dem 239, +44
The Guardian and Sky are also showing Cumberland as a gain for Labour (as it should be) so have Labour on net +4 councils, rather than the +3 the BBC report.
I do find it slightly strange that there can be so many deviations and no two outlets seem to share the same numbers.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 7:39:25 GMT
It's entirely plausible that tomorrow we will see a majority for non unionist parties in northern Ireland. This should automatically under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement trigger a border poll on reunification. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2022 7:43:35 GMT
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Post by johntel on May 6, 2022 7:47:54 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 7:55:47 GMT
Lavrov might be so worried that he kills his immediate family and commits suicide. Such remorse doesn't seem wholly unknown under Putin. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2022 8:04:09 GMT
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