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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 20:32:19 GMT
Been to vote earlier this afternoon and can report that in this part of Swansea West, turnout is brisk/decent.....and likely to be up on last time these elections were held. Coming off 2017 rather than 2018 results, are you expecting Labour to regain ground in Swansea? Thinking particularly about the very split vote last time in Sketty, but also wondering if the Uplands independents have enough personal support to hold on? |
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2022 20:32:53 GMT
It was two things...seeing all the recent anti Starmer hate on social media from the Corbynites still mourning his loss and their constant 'Keith' refrain about Starmers lack of charisma and his own idiotic comments on NATO. This reminded me that with him in charge of the country we'd have been in a constant ideological battle both within the party and without. Can you explain about 'Keith'? Is it meant in some way to be derogatory to Starmer? Why? Is it middle class or old-fashioned or something? |
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Post by thylacine on May 5, 2022 20:34:17 GMT
[quote author=" robbiealive" source="/ You Scots have an advantage apparently. [/quote] I believe her name is Nicola Sturgeon! |
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Post by charles on May 5, 2022 20:34:31 GMT
barbara JimJam EOR - I was in Canada during the run up to Trump's election and watched continual TV coverage of it. I could see that he had a coalition which ought to win - a combination of loyal republicans, religious fundamentalists, and dwellers in rust belts whose disatisfactions were very plain and understandable. I also thought that he was such an appalling person that no one and particularly no woman, in their right senses, could possibly vote for him. Well, clearly I was very wrong and the reason may well be as EOR says that people have always beeen aware of what an appalling person he is but they have decided to discount this as in their view he does the Lord's work,
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2022 20:52:28 GMT
barbara JimJam EOR - I was in Canada during the run up to Trump's election and watched continual TV coverage of it. I could see that he had a coalition which ought to win - a combination of loyal republicans, religious fundamentalists, and dwellers in rust belts whose disatisfactions were very plain and understandable. I also thought that he was such an appalling person that no one and particularly no woman, in their right senses, could possibly vote for him. Well, clearly I was very wrong and the reason may well be as EOR says that people have always beeen aware of what an appalling person he is but they have decided to discount this as in their view he does the Lord's work, I think there's a common thread between Trump and Brexit (and therefore Johnson), and also perhaps Macron. A large number of people in these countries and probably others were dissatisfied with the status quo and therefore went for peaceful 'revolutionary' solutions via the ballot box. Unfortunately for most denizens of this site the preferred revolutionary leaders were not left wing. |
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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 20:56:59 GMT
Heh, if we were talking about a judicial nominee I'd absolutely take your point. But this isn't a manifesto pledge, this amounts to a court voluntarily and needlessly putting a poison pill into what's supposed to be their own agenda. And that makes very little sense to me, whereas the incentives for people on both sides to hype up a slippery slope argument are clear and rational. It signals that cases to reverse other rights cannot depend on the same specific legal argument. It in no way signals that the Court will not consider such cases. Yes, but why deliberately choose to do a thing that makes it harder to achieve the supposed objective when there's no need to do anything at all? |
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Post by Old Southendian on May 5, 2022 20:57:58 GMT
Are our Wordle friends intentionally not telling us the actual word? Or just teasing? Maybe enticing us to join them. No I just thought some poor sucker might still be thinking of doing it. You Scots have an advantage apparently. We can reveal after midnight when the next one goes up. I'm sure you're all dying to know. There won't be many LE results in at that point anyway, so it'll be a distraction.
The Americanisms are occasional annoyances. Words which (in English usage) end in OUR are the biggest bugbear.
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Post by charles on May 5, 2022 21:07:35 GMT
mercian J agree with you that people voted for Trump and for Brexit because of a dissatisfaction with the way things are I also think that this led them to overlook qualities of character that might have otherwise counted. Both Boris and Trump lie and both treat women in ways that many dislike. I had expected that in Trump's case these things would count against him and they didn't or at least if they did, not nearly as much as I expected.
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2022 21:44:04 GMT
mercian J agree with you that people voted for Trump and for Brexit because of a dissatisfaction with the way things are I also think that this led them to overlook qualities of character that might have otherwise counted. Both Boris and Trump lie and both treat women in ways that many dislike. I had expected that in Trump's case these things would count against him and they didn't or at least if they did, not nearly as much as I expected. Yes obviously both Trump and Johnson have many flaws, but there did seem to be a mood that drastic change was needed. In the UK Corbyn got the most votes for Labour for twenty years, but still lost. So it was on both sides. Paradoxically in France where there always seems to be social unrest and they have an extreme right party, the revolutionary choice was to elect a centrist! |
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 21:52:16 GMT
johntel - "Any thoughts on why France appears to come out much better than Germany on the excess death list alec?" No real idea, but other figures are available and the WHO figures do seem out of line somewhat. Our World in Data tracks covid and excess deaths, their figures are radically different to the WHO estimates. On covid deaths per million, UK is just over 2,500, France around 2,100 and Germany around 1,600, while for excess deaths, UK is way ahead on c 2,000 with France around 1,100 and Germany 1,000 (all per million). So there are clearly some major discrepancies in the data. Martin McKee's point is also going to be worth watching. Having quickly checked some figures (see here ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Causes_of_death_%E2%80%94_diseases_of_the_respiratory_system,_residents,_2018.png ) I can see that in 2018, Germany had substantially higher deaths from respiratory diseases than France (77/100,000 compared to 57/100,000) and from here www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromrespiratorydiseasefrom2015to2020andinfluenzaandpneumoniain2020 I've calculated that in the UK (actually England and Wales only) the comparable figure is around 130/100,000. This is why the UK has the reputation of having very poor lung disease statistics among similar nations, and this backs up McKee's point that measures that reduce respiratory virus transmission aimed at covid will also reduce other pathogens, and in doing so would mask much worse covid deaths, if excess deaths is the measure used.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2022 22:00:39 GMT
It signals that cases to reverse other rights cannot depend on the same specific legal argument. It in no way signals that the Court will not consider such cases. Yes, but why deliberately choose to do a thing that makes it harder to achieve the supposed objective when there's no need to do anything at all? Perhaps to give cover to the three justices who implied in their confirmation hearings they would not overturn Roe v Wade but will now do so? (As always planned - that's specifically why they were chosen by Trump). I think the mistake you are making, is to assume these people are neutral judges deciding things on the basis of the law. Perhaps that was once true of the Supreme Court (Roe v Wade was a cross-party decision), but not in the last few decades of appointments. They are in fact highly political figures, selected by Presidents for their known politico-religious views. Hence why so many votes in the Court are decided on straight party lines (except sometimes for Roberts). This is a long planned and well exercised coup by the Republicans. And if anyone thinks they are going to stop with abortion then they are being very naive. |
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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 22:24:16 GMT
alec johntelWe'd expect non-trivial distortions in calculations of excess deaths due to randomness in the baseline period (a country with two bad flu winters in the past 5 years versus a country with none, for example), but surely nothing on the scale that alec describes. Those kind of differences can only be due to doing fundamentally different calculations, surely?
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 22:40:57 GMT
eor - I think so. I can't really reconcile the two sets of numbers, tbh. However, when I searched for the various bits of data, I consistently came up against links like this - www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60524677It appears that the UK has a world beating (or at least, Europe beating) record on the appalling number of deaths from lung disease. These clearly aren't all viral infections, but there does seem to be an abnormally high number of flu and viral induced lung deaths in the UK that intuitively seems likely to distort the excess deaths calcs through the pandemic. But I've had four pints already tonight so can't really work out what's actually going on.
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 22:43:44 GMT
Local elections: Labour nervous in Sunderland and Croyden, Conservatives despondent in Wandsworth and Barnet.
Looks like some serious expectation management, or a genuine mixed bag of results.
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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 22:48:04 GMT
Yes, but why deliberately choose to do a thing that makes it harder to achieve the supposed objective when there's no need to do anything at all? Perhaps to give cover to the three justices who implied in their confirmation hearings they would not overturn Roe v Wade but will now do so? That doesn't follow tho - whatever they choose to add about other 14th Amendment rights makes no difference to whether they misled the Senate about their attitudes to Roe in their confirmation hearings, if they're striking it down having implied they wouldn't then they're striking it down having implied they wouldn't. Making it harder to later go further doesn't change that. Quite the opposite. I am saying that if the degree of intent that's being claimed is actually true, the tactics employed seem to include a significant and completely needless degree of self-sabotage, and that seems quite implausible to me. I agree with you that Supreme Court appointments have been increasingly policiticised in recent decades, tho if they were ever neutral arbiters chosen without regard to politics I don't know when that time was. The time of effected 9-0 rulings for the sake on integrity probably ended with Bush v Gore, if not before. |
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Post by moby on May 5, 2022 23:04:21 GMT
It was two things...seeing all the recent anti Starmer hate on social media from the Corbynites still mourning his loss and their constant 'Keith' refrain about Starmers lack of charisma and his own idiotic comments on NATO. This reminded me that with him in charge of the country we'd have been in a constant ideological battle both within the party and without. Can you explain about 'Keith'? Is it meant in some way to be derogatory to Starmer? Why? Is it middle class or old-fashioned or something? The faction that hate Keir deliberately call him 'Keith' as an insult. He's so irrelevant ...can't even remember his name. |
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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 23:09:51 GMT
Expectations management on the BBC - David Lammy saying that any Labour gains tonight will be a great achievement, Michelle Donelan saying if Labour don't get the 800 gains that strange poll suggested then all is doom.
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 23:15:48 GMT
Local elections: Labour nervous in Sunderland and Croyden, Conservatives despondent in Wandsworth and Barnet. Looks like some serious expectation management, or a genuine mixed bag of results. Sunderland was one that Lab have been iffy about for some time. Had it not been dor recent headlines the Tories would have expected to take it fairly easily due to the Brexit effect. Croydon - Fairly unexpected for Lab to be in trouble here but it is a marginal borough. Barnet - Starmer's overtures to the Jewish community could bear fruit here. Another generally marginal constituency but the one in London where Corbyn was deeply unpopular Wandsworth - A constituency that has become increasingly Lab over time and one they really hoped to win this time. Labour's top target in London. |
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Post by ladyvalerie on May 5, 2022 23:17:20 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle n did my first. It took 5 lines n if I did the same word as you it was one that only has an American usage. Is it always as parochial. I want to expand my vocab not sully it with American sports jargon. I thought it was all Greek, myself 😀 did it in 3. and here is today’s Wordle 321 3/6 ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟩 🟨🟨⬜⬜🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 23:20:18 GMT
Expectations management on the BBC - David Lammy saying that any Labour gains tonight will be a great achievement, Michelle Donelan saying if Labour don't get the 800 gains that strange poll suggested then all is doom. I believe it was Britain Elects based on recent polling that suggested Lab +150 and Tories -200. With Lab gaining in Wales, Scotland and London bur losing around 20 seats in the rest of England. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 23:35:41 GMT
Sunderland - So far the Lab/Tory vote splits similar to 2018 and 2021.
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Post by ladyvalerie on May 5, 2022 23:38:26 GMT
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 23:43:21 GMT
Thanks ladyvalerie. Astonished that Dan Hodges may have leapt to the wrong conclusion. That is so out of character. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 23:54:44 GMT
eor - I think so. I can't really reconcile the two sets of numbers, tbh. However, when I searched for the various bits of data, I consistently came up against links like this - www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60524677It appears that the UK has a world beating (or at least, Europe beating) record on the appalling number of deaths from lung disease. These clearly aren't all viral infections, but there does seem to be an abnormally high number of flu and viral induced lung deaths in the UK that intuitively seems likely to distort the excess deaths calcs through the pandemic. But I've had four pints already tonight so can't really work out what's actually going on. Commendably lucid still after four pints, alec. I'd certainly have lost my edge by that stage! I'm trying to sip my sauvignon blanc to limit the damage... |
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Post by graham on May 6, 2022 0:12:57 GMT
We need to be careful with 'swing' figures and data showing changes in party vote shares. The 6% swing referred to by John Curtice almost certainly is compared to 2021. Since 2018 - when these seats were last fought - there is likely to have been a swing against Labour in Sunderland. We are seeing Labour actually losing some seats to the Tories - despite performing much better than 2021.
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 0:13:08 GMT
So, in the end Sunderland turned out to be a mixed bag. Lab-1 Tories-1 LD+2. Lab vote share down 3%.
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Post by graham on May 6, 2022 0:14:13 GMT
So, in the end Sunderland turned out to be a mixed bag. Lab-1 Tories-1 LD+2. Lab vote share down 3%. That will be compared with 2018 - but Labour is up compared with 2021. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 0:16:35 GMT
So, in the end Sunderland turned out to be a mixed bag. Lab-1 Tories-1 LD+2. Lab vote share down 3%. That will be compared with 2018 - but Labour is up compared with 2021. Yes agreed. It's always hard how to measure 1/3 councils. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2022 0:29:10 GMT
I have been reading that my old council borough, the City of Westminster, could be in play for Lab. That would be astonishing.
Well, I say astonishing in terms of seats but not popular vote. In 2018 the Tories finished with 41 seats and Lab with 19, but there was less than 2% between the parties.
The new council will be formed of just 45 seats rather than 60. Assuming anothee tight popular vote race across the borough and with fewer seats, anything could happen.
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Danny
Member
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2022 0:49:23 GMT
Eary results seem to be lab down, con down more , lib up, green up.
I decided to vote green. When I got there I noticed Green had come out on the first line of the ballot. I wonder if that might have significanty increased their vote. Someone ought to correlat swing against position on the paper.
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