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Post by barbara on May 5, 2022 16:23:22 GMT
Wonderful! Implosion on the way. Johnson is prepared to sink the Party in Westminster and the wider country in order to save his own skin - and just like Brexit, they have no one to blame but themselves. The Republicans are doing the same in the US. According to recent polls the majority of the American public now want Trump to go away. |
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Post by jimjam on May 5, 2022 16:32:37 GMT
Barbara, with perfect timing the below out an hour or so ago.
''Equal highest % to say they would vote for Trump that we have recorded.
2024 Presidential Election Hypothetical Voting Intention (1 May):
Donald Trump: 44% (+1)
Joe Biden: 40% (-1)
Don't know: 9% (–)
Changes +/- 18 Apr
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-admi… pic.twitter.com/vG38ZyP3m7
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Post by barbara on May 5, 2022 16:36:58 GMT
There's a fantastic set of four tweets by Dominic Cummings showing in the Guardian Politics Live BLog. Totally destroying the Tories in every possible way.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I don't know how to share the tweets but this is the content of them.
Vote Tory = more...
taxes
regulation
shit bureaucracy
violent/sex crime
neglect of security/armed forces
A&E disasters / NHS neglect
chance of nuclear war
... while idiots babbling about trans & other shite get promoted all over sw1
Tories & their wider support in media/'think tanks' etc are so intellectually, politically, & organisationally rancid that a change of leader may well not change these dynamics, but there is NO chance of even discussing serious change unless the 🛒 is replaced
Only point of 🛒 as PM was to act as spokesman for the Vote Leave agenda while we pushed everything in a different direction. Once this was 99% abandoned in 2020 the entire spectacle is pointless *for all except the 🛒 himself* who enjoys riding his bike at Chequers etc
Unless youre someone like Nadine or the Telegraph ('the real boss') or Zelensky's social media crew, it's irrational to prop up the 🤡 show any more.
Remain/brexit/left/right/political/official, all shd unite in removing pointless fkd 🛒...
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Post by barbara on May 5, 2022 16:40:24 GMT
Barbara, we perfect timing the below out an hour or so ago. ''Equal highest % to say they would vote for Trump that we have recorded. 2024 Presidential Election Hypothetical Voting Intention (1 May): Donald Trump: 44% (+1) Joe Biden: 40% (-1) Don't know: 9% (–) Changes +/- 18 Apr redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-admi… pic.twitter.com/vG38ZyP3m7 This is being reported in the Guardian today: "According to recent polls, Trump’s popularity continues to sink. He is liked by only 38% of Americans and disliked by 46%. (12% are neutral.) And this isn’t your normal “sort of like, sort of dislike” polling. Feelings are intense, as they’ve always been about Trump. Among voters 45 to 64 years old – a group Trump won in 2020, 50% to 49%, according to exit polls – just 39% now view him favorably and 57%, unfavorably. Among voters 65 and older (52% of whom voted for him in 2020 to Biden’s 47) only 44% now see him favorably and more than half (54%) unfavorably. Perhaps most importantly, independents hold him in even lower regard. Just 26% view him favorably; 68% unfavorably." It may be the discrepancy is explained by a large number of non-voters. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 5, 2022 16:50:41 GMT
As I've said before... I can fully see Johnson deciding that being Leader of HRM Loyal Opposition as more attractive than being sent to the back benches, and reducing the party to a rump of his loyalists to do so. Should he do so, even should he manage to keep himself in the position (which would mean moving to a safer seat than he is currently in), it would doom the party to a slow diminishing death as it became his personal vehicle. I don't think he would be able to pull it off. But he might think himself capable of doing so. |
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Post by Mark on May 5, 2022 16:54:45 GMT
Been to vote earlier this afternoon and can report that in this part of Swansea West, turnout is brisk/decent.....and likely to be up on last time these elections were held.
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alurqa
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Freiburg im Breisgau's flag
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Post by alurqa on May 5, 2022 17:12:16 GMT
The government can pressure its compliant media to suppress brexit news, but it looks like brexit and the cost of living crisis are inextricably linked, even if it's a 'price worth paying'. Still, they can switch to value brands; or get using those buses; that should cure the brexit problem.
The link has the details of a recent survey: ukandeu.ac.uk/the-evidence-shows-both-leavers-and-remainers-think-brexit-has-increased-the-cost-of-living/The evidence shows both Leavers and Remainers think Brexit has increased the cost of livingThere is no doubt that the cost of living is the most important issue for large parts of the British public. It topped the Ipsos issues index in April with one in three mentioning inflation/prices as one of the most important issues facing Britain today (and one in five saying it was the most important issue) – the highest score recorded for the issue in this series since August 1990.
In sharp contrast Brexit has all but disappeared from people’s immediate concerns, languishing at the bottom of the list of issues. Just one in 10 people mention Brexit as one of the most important issues, while fewer than one in 20 say it is the most important.
Despite this we know that how the British public views the economy and politics more generally is still refracted through a ‘Brexit’ lens.
...
The voters may be aware that the cost of living crisis has multiple causes, but they are clear that Brexit is among them and as the crisis worsens there may be an appetite for doing Brexit differently, and for asking questions about the ‘oven ready’ deal that got ‘Brexit done’.
... |
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 17:17:25 GMT
@danny - "And they all miss the point. Unless interventions are sufficiently effective to get R below 1 and eradicate a disease, they are only slowing its inevitable spread through the whole community. Dont you see how a wave of covid only ever ends after it infects enough to create herd immunity?" I'm clearly a cleverer chap than you. We are on our fifth major variant (three more just round the corner) and fourth major wave, and you still talk about herd immunity? The experts now accept that herd immunity won't happen with covid, and if our good fortune to date breaks and we get a properly nasty variant, you can sit back and watch just how stupid you have been. steve - I'm not calling for anything disproportionate. Just sensible, reasonable, cost saving measures. My proposals (not really mine, but the experts) will save lives and (crucially) save money, because fewer people will be sick, fewer people will suffer diabetes and other long term illnesses, and there will be fewer impacts on society. There is a great deal of distance between perfectly healthy and dead, and I think you are mistaken if you think the absence of death is sufficient. |
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Post by jimjam on May 5, 2022 17:24:01 GMT
Barbara,
The obvious conclusion of those apparently contradictory statistics is that Biden is not that well regarded either but for different reasons perhaps.
I do hope that the anyone but trump sentiment grows and that the Dems can find a decent candidate.
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 17:47:06 GMT
Some more Survation local election polling including an updated poll on local election VI in Scotland with SNP up 9 points from its 2017 vote share at 41% (highly unlikely in my view) and Labour in second place with 23% ( described as a "strong second" by the pollster but that seems to stretch the definition of the word!)
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 18:05:11 GMT
A US perspective on the strange disappearance (again, on the day of the NI Assembly elections) of the threat to tear up the Northern Irish Protocol -
"It would be a monumental act of self indulgence at a moment of crisis. We don't have time for this crap right now."
Quite.
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 18:13:31 GMT
And for those wondering about why the UK doesn't appear to do so badly on the excess deaths measure, this thread is worth reading -
The point here is that the 'Excess Deaths' denominator is not an independent variable against which all countries are referenced against. It's a measure based solely on their own mortality data, so if a country like the UK has had long term poor health outcomes from respiratory illness, then a lockdown will suppress many more non-covid deaths along with the covid deaths, with the result that the true level of covid deaths will be lessened, according to this analysis.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 18:29:19 GMT
@danny - "And they all miss the point. Unless interventions are sufficiently effective to get R below 1 and eradicate a disease, they are only slowing its inevitable spread through the whole community. Dont you see how a wave of covid only ever ends after it infects enough to create herd immunity?" I'm clearly a cleverer chap than you. We are on our fifth major variant (three more just round the corner) and fourth major wave, and you still talk about herd immunity? Each wave has to be taken on its own terms and herd immunity created to that strain. Until it is, that strain will not disappear. We have been through the process of infecting most of the population several times over by now, despite all the interventions. The interventions didnt stop any of the waves. I said in 2020 there was a chance herd immunity to covid as a disease would never exist. I argued that by analogy with other cold viruses (including already a couple of other corona viruses) and the failure of vaccine development programs in the past trying to find vaccines to colds. The new vaccines were sold as having a chance of being better than the old ones, but they have turned out much the same. By now the repeat booster program is giving severely limited diminishing returns by giving a temporary boost as if the person had had covid. But as you keep posting, this inceases the chance of 'antigenic sin', as you keep bringing up. The reason this risk is growing is BECAUSE we keep revaccinating and are not switching to infection which would create new broader antibodies. In a situation like this, the vaccine has only ever been a limited capability bridge to help us transition to natural imunity. The irony is that the human population had a lot of immunity to covid from the outset, and would have mostly done as well or better by simply catching it and going the natural route at far far lower cost. Only the high risk ever needed intervention, and even there returns from intervention are limited. It was really stupid to allow a population whih had some initial immunity to let that waste away by isolation instead of exposure boosting. There is a serious concern we now face because China not only is still stuck on deep isolation to end covid, by now the net level of their immunity post vaccine but restricted infections, may be worse than when this all began. Bad for China, but because of the west's reliance upon them for manufactured goods, very bad for us. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 18:34:45 GMT
And for those wondering about why the UK doesn't appear to do so badly on the excess deaths measure, this thread is worth reading - The point here is that the 'Excess Deaths' denominator is not an independent variable against which all countries are referenced against. It's a measure based solely on their own mortality data, so if a country like the UK has had long term poor health outcomes from respiratory illness, then a lockdown will suppress many more non-covid deaths along with the covid deaths, with the result that the true level of covid deaths will be lessened, according to this analysis. Or the Uk had relatively high deaths as we went along because it spread more here. But actually, this led to a better final outcome - from more people catching covid sooner.
The artefact he mentions due to regular high mortality rates from respiratory diseases - does he mean simply that more susceptible people in the Uk were already dead, so there were fewer here to die anyway? If so, it implies the numbers at risk have only ever been of the same sort of magnitude as regular seasonal deaths we dont much bother about. This disease has behaved as if there was a surge of deaths in the early stages because of accumulated high risk individuals who had never before had covid. But as we went along more and more were already dead, so mortality rates could only fall.
Dont forget Hastings had covid in winter 2019/20 and didnt notice. The natural death rate was not much more than random seasonal deaths. It was a terrible mistake to treat it as if it was.
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Post by robbiealive on May 5, 2022 19:17:57 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle n did my first. It took 5 lines n if I did the same word as you it was one that only has an American usage. Is it always as parochial. I want to expand my vocab not sully it with American sports jargon.
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 19:31:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 19:34:36 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle Impossible. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 19:40:09 GMT
And I see we are now officially expecting to hit 10% inflation, rather than just the rest of us looking at how things are going and expecting it but official estimates being lower.
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 19:42:42 GMT
Edinburgh joins Glasgow in blocking Home Office deportations:
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 19:44:42 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle n did my first. It took 5 lines n if I did the same word as you it was one that only has an American usage. Is it always as parochial. I want to expand my vocab not sully it with American sports jargon. It's a commonplace word in Scotland. |
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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 19:56:42 GMT
Barbara, The obvious conclusion of those apparently contradictory statistics is that Biden is not that well regarded either but for different reasons perhaps. I do hope that the anyone but trump sentiment grows and that the Dems can find a decent candidate. I agree Biden being a candidate in the hypothetical probably complicates it, but the apparent contradiction may be much simpler. Trump's favourability ratings have never been that perfect a proxy for whether people would vote for him. Indeed, the numbers barbara quotes from the Guardian are actually slightly better than they were when he got elected. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html |
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Post by davwel on May 5, 2022 20:04:48 GMT
Are our Wordle friends intentionally not telling us the actual word?
Or just teasing? Maybe enticing us to join them.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 20:06:14 GMT
colin. Nice to see you back and liking one of my excellent recent posts - I hope all is well with you and your wife? Paul
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 20:07:45 GMT
Are our Wordle friends intentionally not telling us the actual word? Or just teasing? Maybe enticing us to join them. I assume it’s “Jings” davwel. |
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Post by eor on May 5, 2022 20:08:59 GMT
eor "Indeed I suspect that's why this language has been included, to specifically make clear that this is not a blanket repudiation of 14th Amendment protections. " Well, he would say that wouldn't he. Heh, if we were talking about a judicial nominee I'd absolutely take your point. But this isn't a manifesto pledge, this amounts to a court voluntarily and needlessly putting a poison pill into what's supposed to be their own agenda. And that makes very little sense to me, whereas the incentives for people on both sides to hype up a slippery slope argument are clear and rational. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 5, 2022 20:14:19 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle n did my first. It took 5 lines n if I did the same word as you it was one that only has an American usage. Is it always as parochial. I want to expand my vocab not sully it with American sports jargon. It's a commonplace word in Scotland. I'm sure a lot of words are commonplace in Scotland that are outside the ambit of civilized discourse. Anyway while I was on Mull I planned my funeral rites. First thought was a full-scale Viking funeral on Loch Na Keal but apparently these are illegal: health & safety gone mad, cancel culture (Viking), etc. (I'm sure the Vikings weren't mad enough to burn good boats). So the boat will be a small replica, with my ashes on board in a onyx urn, set alight & pushed out: it passes the island of Inch Kenneth, where the Mitford sisters argued aboutLeft-Right politics (the recent TV adaptation of Nancy's Love in a Cold Climate was quite funny, tho their brother was portrayed as a radical when he was a vicious fascist) & will sink just as the Treshnish Islands come into view. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 5, 2022 20:16:57 GMT
Are our Wordle friends intentionally not telling us the actual word? Or just teasing? Maybe enticing us to join them. No I just thought some poor sucker might still be thinking of doing it. You Scots have an advantage apparently. |
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 20:26:49 GMT
eor "Indeed I suspect that's why this language has been included, to specifically make clear that this is not a blanket repudiation of 14th Amendment protections. " Well, he would say that wouldn't he. Heh, if we were talking about a judicial nominee I'd absolutely take your point. But this isn't a manifesto pledge, this amounts to a court voluntarily and needlessly putting a poison pill into what's supposed to be their own agenda. And that makes very little sense to me, whereas the incentives for people on both sides to hype up a slippery slope argument are clear and rational. It signals that cases to reverse other rights cannot depend on the same specific legal argument. It in no way signals that the Court will not consider such cases. |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2022 20:27:05 GMT
Any thoughts on why France appears to come out much better than Germany on the excess death list alec? All those Gauloises inflating their normal death rate perhaps? |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2022 20:30:24 GMT
Well Lady Valerie I became excited as Crofty about Wordle n did my first. It took 5 lines n if I did the same word as you it was one that only has an American usage. Is it always as parochial. I want to expand my vocab not sully it with American sports jargon. I'm eagerly anticipating the first Wordle thats rude in British usage  |
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