steve
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Posts: 12,658
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Post by steve on May 5, 2022 9:27:15 GMT
Attention all Tory voters.
Remember today.
Stay at Home.
Save the NHS.
You know it makes sense.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2022 9:41:13 GMT
That Yougov/Sky poll is interesting and mostly they're not calling things very definitely at all. Bit sceptical about sample size as well- not sure that tables have been issued but if they have a sample of 5,000 then at 30% turnout there's not many votes per the councils they sampled and we know the problems Ashcroft had doing constituency polling in 2015. Also seems a bit odd to me that the North is likely to be less good for Labour given all those lent votes to the Tories for brexit so those voters less in the Tory camp than the remaining Tories in places like London who presumably have a strong affiliation with Tory and probably voted Tory most of their lives. There could be local factors in the north - i.e. some traditionally Labour councils perceived as moribund and poorly performing. I have read this in an issue in Sunderland where the Tories are sounding optimistic about gaining seats. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2022 9:44:43 GMT
alec Both case numbers and daily deaths from covid in the USA have fallen by 90% since January at the same time as precautions have been reduced. World wide case numbers and deaths have fallen 65% in the last month 20% in the last 7 days alone. Deaths from or with covid are now at the same level as March 2020 and falling rapidly. Total deaths look like peaking world wide at around seven million around 20% the number that have died from hiv/aids and 10% the number killed in the Spanish flu pandemic as a proportion of the population impacted Spanish flu was around fifty times as lethal as covid. Of course for both hiv and the flu pandemic the average age of the victims was decades younger. Whether you feel it's appropriate or not the data is clear the pandemic is reaching a similar point as has occurred in virtually all previous pandemics where it simply isn't as dangerous and where the vast majority accept the risk of contracting it in the same way as they do other endemic normally mild respiratory illnesses. Expecting individuals and communities to retain disproportionate precautions after the catastrophic damage caused when such precautions were significantly more appropriate is simply not going to happen. Incidentally all attendees at the White house press dinner were fully vaccinated.
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Post by wb61 on May 5, 2022 10:03:18 GMT
Having viewed the various views and commentary on Jeremy Corbyn & Keir Starmer above I was reminded of the joke about the man asking directions to which the reply was I wouldn't start from here. Unfortunately, whatever else you may wish for we, all, always have to start from here and now. That means that the country, barring a John Smith moment, is almost certain to go into the next general election with Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and with first past the post as the system of election. Tacking, therefore, is the only realistic strategy to broaden the level of electoral support. At present tacking appears to involve saying little about policy other than the application of immediately applicable policy initiatives. For two reasons, in my judgment, this is sensible (1) Any immediate policy adopted by the Conservatives can be presented as a Labour victory on policy (and the argument if you want Labour policies they are sooner and better administered by a Labour Government) (2) It is uncertain whether the Conservatives current leader will be in place for the next General election, and therefore what policy presentation will be advanced and which will need to be countered. It may be that Keir Starmer is the perfect vehicle for this kind of approach until an election period when the broader talents of the Labour Team can gain the kind of media traction that appears difficult (in the absence of gaffes and smears) during a non election period.
That said I wonder about the breadth of the shadow cabinet in terms of left/centre/right balance and maybe there is an opportunity to bring in more left leaning figures. I have said before this was Harold Wilson's great talent and it is to be remembered that he won four general elections (Thatcher and Blair only three each)!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,759
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2022 10:09:14 GMT
While it’s true that holding back on policy at certain times before elections might be politically useful, and have suggested the same myself before now, with Corbyn, many policies often didn’t get mentioned much even at election time by some, or in retrospect even. And one might contend it might actually be useful for activists to know and be able to explain policy that is actually already out there, given that the rationale for hiding those policies no longer applies.* Including Starmer’s policies.
* (There can be advantages to the government nicking your policies of course. It can shift the Overton window your way etc.)
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Post by ladyvalerie on May 5, 2022 10:38:34 GMT
Wordle 320 3/6
⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨
⬜⬜⬜🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2022 10:47:45 GMT
Having viewed the various views and commentary on Jeremy Corbyn & Keir Starmer above I was reminded of the joke about the man asking directions to which the reply was I wouldn't start from here. Unfortunately, whatever else you may wish for we, all, always have to start from here and now. That means that the country, barring a John Smith moment, is almost certain to go into the next general election with Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and with first past the post as the system of election. Tacking, therefore, is the only realistic strategy to broaden the level of electoral support. At present tacking appears to involve saying little about policy other than the application of immediately applicable policy initiatives. For two reasons, in my judgment, this is sensible (1) Any immediate policy adopted by the Conservatives can be presented as a Labour victory on policy (and the argument if you want Labour policies they are sooner and better administered by a Labour Government) (2) It is uncertain whether the Conservatives current leader will be in place for the next General election, and therefore what policy presentation will be advanced and which will need to be countered. It may be that Keir Starmer is the perfect vehicle for this kind of approach until an election period when the broader talents of the Labour Team can gain the kind of media traction that appears difficult (in the absence of gaffes and smears) during a non election period. That said I wonder about the breadth of the shadow cabinet in terms of left/centre/right balance and maybe there is an opportunity to bring in more left leaning figures. I have said before this was Harold Wilson's great talent and it is to be remembered that he won four general elections (Thatcher and Blair only three each)! I don't disagree with this except that I think there are certain minimum policies they can have now and if it forces the Tories to do something then that's a good thing regardless of the result of the next election. I'm particularly thinking of nurses pay for example at a time when there is a lot of sympathy for what they have been doing during Covid and it's a basic necessity for the NHS to have nurses pay keeping up with inflation or we lose more nurses. Also on benefits, if it means anything to be concerned about people at the very bottom of the ladder, there has to be a commitment to keep pace with inflation otherwise they are below basic safety net. Also I think Blair had tons of policy, maybe not down to the detail, but it did him no harm to keep hammering the message well in advance of an election. Starmer has no intention of bringing in left leaning figures- surely that much is obvious by now? |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2022 10:53:11 GMT
Wordle 320 3/6 ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Well done. I took 4 - I didn't think this was an actual English word. |
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2022 11:01:01 GMT
crossbat11 I agree about the wondrous spectacle of football. I can still vividly remember Dick Edwards and George Curtis simultaneously shoulder charging Bobby Charlton from each side. To his credit, he didn't roll around in simulated agony but got up and got on with it. He was a bit subdued afterwards though. 😄 Can't ever remember them playing together for the Villa though. I think Dick had departed before George came and I'm pretty sure neither played in a Villa shirt against Charlton's Man Utd. We did play them in an epic League Cup semi final in 1970, but both players had departed the club by then. You're not thinking of the legendary Fred Turnbull, are you?? Off to watch some cricket at New Road today. A decent forecast too. No local elections in my area today so I'm sitting them out from a campaigning point of view. No doorstep anecdotes to share, I'm afraid and, alas, no Labour votes for Mrs H and I to cast/waste in this sea of Tory blue that surrounds us! You're right. I had to check because the memory is so vivid. My eyes were never that good though! It must have been Turnbull and probably Charlie Aitken. Edwards and Curtis did overlap though. Anyway, enjoy the cricket. |
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Post by peterbell on May 5, 2022 11:39:43 GMT
BoE has hiked interest rates to 1% and has warned the Bank is walking a very tight line between tackling inflation and avoiding a recession. Things are looking bleak, surely Sunnak must introduce a windfall tax on the energy companies, especially after this mornings' Shell profits announcement.
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Post by wb61 on May 5, 2022 11:46:12 GMT
peterbellYes first whole number interest rate since 2009 and this from the MPC according to the BBC report: "The MPC now expects the UK economy to contract by 0.25% in 2022, down from its previous forecast of 1.25% growth. While that would not technically be a recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction - it would leave the UK at a real risk of one. The MPC has also slashed its growth outlook for 2023 to 0.25%, down from 1%."
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Post by Mark on May 5, 2022 11:51:20 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 12:05:12 GMT
I think I'm going to go be cautious and go with modest gains for Labour approx 200, but overall a bit of a mixed bag for everyone. Tories will be down but only by appox 300 - will likely hold Labour off in a couple of those 'ones to watch' councils such as Wandsworth/Worthing/Southampton etc. Labour wont make big gains in the North - but will basically hold their ground (actually an improvement on '19 given these seats were last contended in '18 etc). Greens will do well in areas like London - LD's will make modest gains as well but no dramatic surge.
SNP will come out top in Scotland by quite a margin - but the 'story' will be Labour coming second. Wales - PC gains but Labour maintain position as main party. NI - will have to go with SF coming first. I'm quite excited about Southampton, my council. Current composition is very close - CON 25, LAB 23 - so it's all to play for. The 2018 city elections when today's seats were last fought produced LAB 8, CON 7, IND 1. Last year's results: LAB 5, CON 11. My ward covers the university and has drifted from LD during the Blair period to CON in the Cameron years to fairly safe LAB, but the GRNs came from nowhere to bag a close-ish second last year. The only leaflet I've had through the door is from the GRN candidate - quite astonishing. If GRN pick up seats here then I think it demonstrates a large level of distrust and disappointment with the main two parties (nationally more than locally - they're much of a muchness here). There are no independents standing in any ward this time, so GRNs are best-placed to profit. Bizarrely, LD are not standing in my ward (for the first time ever) and polled <10% in every ward bar a couple last time, so may be out of the running, but you never know. |
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 12:13:48 GMT
I expect the SNP to come out on top in Scotland by some margin (demand for a new referendum but not competent local government) but look out for Glasgow. Glasgow has has huge problems with bins and ironically this is what the local elections are about. I think Labour may regain Glasgow which will be great for their recovery in Scotland. Not if they run Glasgow in the way they did for the decades before the SNP administration took over. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,583
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2022 12:43:43 GMT
Just to note that davem had set up a local election thread that a few of us have been using. I have copied my observations on Colchester BC across to the new one and will put the actual result on both when known, in case anyone is interested. |
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2022 12:51:19 GMT
Here in Bristol the only vote happening today is a referendum on whether to keep the directly elected mayor. My gut feeling is that Bristol will vote to abolish the mayor. Mostly because the Green party, the Conservative party and I think the Lib Dems have campaigned for abolition. The official Labour position is to retain the Mayor, but I understand that this was not discussed or voted on in branches.
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Post by Mark on May 5, 2022 13:06:46 GMT
[quote author=" pjw1961" Just to note that davem had set up a local election thread that a few of us have been using. I have copied my observations on Colchester BC across to the new one and will put the actual result on both when known, in case anyone is interested. [/quote]Thanks for the heads up...I checked in Issue Specific to make sure nobody had already done so, but, didn't think to check in the General Discussion board. DOH! My bad! I have deleted my own thread as there were already a fair few posts in the other one (sorry to anyone who posted). To have two dedicated threads would have been messy....so the original thread started by DaveM is now (is still) the official one. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,407
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2022 13:30:32 GMT
No elections in Herefordshire today, or as Mercian would know it 'Magonsæte" 😀
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2022 13:30:36 GMT
[quote author=" pjw1961 " Just to note that davem had set up a local election thread that a few of us have been using. I have copied my observations on Colchester BC across to the new one and will put the actual result on both when known, in case anyone is interested. Thanks for the heads up...I checked in Issue Specific to make sure nobody had already done so, but, didn't think to check in the General Discussion board. DOH! My bad! I have deleted my own thread as there were already a fair few posts in the other one (sorry to anyone who posted). To have two dedicated threads would have been messy....so the original thread started by DaveM is now (is still) the official one. [/quote] I'm quite pleased I've never been a victim of 'Cancel Culture' before....! |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 5, 2022 13:44:13 GMT
Eurobarometer carried out polling on the Ukrainian war. Here are the details europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2772------- There are no elections in Liverpool City, but I had to go to the Wirral at lunchtime and in the two polling stations I saw the turnout looked OK. |
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Post by barbara on May 5, 2022 13:45:55 GMT
Wordle 320 3/6 ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Well done. I took 4 - I didn't think this was an actual English word. Me neither. I thought of it and rejected it and lost a row. |
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alurqa
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Freiburg im Breisgau's flag
Posts: 781
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Post by alurqa on May 5, 2022 13:46:03 GMT
Wordle 320 3/6 ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Crofty will be pleased. :-) |
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Danny
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Posts: 10,388
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 14:06:42 GMT
Corbyn's decision to not only want to put distance between himself and Europe, but also wanting the UK to pull out of NATO, and desire to see NATO disbanded, have put him firmly on the wrong side of history. It's also a part of the paradox of Hard Left Gerontocracy, too many ideological-purity chasing young activists mistake 'Charismatic Figures with Decades of History' as being good choices as leaders. Putting all of Corbyn's personal politics aside, he was a bad manager. Havnt commented on this renewed debate, but I'm not quite sure why it has arisen again now. Someone trying to put the spotlight back on labour away from the Johnson government? Corbyn never expected to win and so was arguably the wrong person for the job. But what sealed labour's fate was the refusal of its own right to work with Corbyn instead of against him. That could have become an administration of all the talents, with the right well represented in a shadow then hopefully actual cabinet. Instead the right waged war against the left with the inevitable outcome of a lost election. It kinda shows how the UK coalition party system really doesnt work at all when one of the two is always sabotaging its own prospects. Obviously labour needed to campaign better and wholeheartedly for remain, and Corbyn could have stepped aside and left a real remainer to lead on that, but again cooperation was in short supply. Con in all honesty were only interested in winning at any cost, else they would never have stepped on the referendum band wagon. So Cameron also fought with one hand behind his back, for fear of attacking fellow tory MPs. Well it bought them 14 years in office, though less clear how much in power. But on the whole a steady con regime and 14 years more on their pension plans. What does the fate of the nation matter at all?
I found it ominous the pound has sunk steadily since middle of last year as the covid dust finally starts to clear and Brexit effects take over.
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 14:14:10 GMT
Well done. I took 4 - I didn't think this was an actual English word. Me neither. I thought of it and rejected it and lost a row. It's a commonplace word in Scotland! |
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 15:19:12 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 15:27:21 GMT
Wordle 320 3/6 ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Crofty will be pleased. :-) Difficult to express my excitement. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 15:36:16 GMT
Incidentally, I note that Danny, in his usual contrarian way, has posted several times that the court got this right. He may care to consider that as a gay man the same people who are keen to deny the humanity of pregnant women would be equally keen to criminalise him too. Whether I like or benefit from something doesnt make it legalistically right or wrong. The US supreme court has often acted as a fudge factor to align the words of the constitution with a modern world. I was just observing that maybe the fudge was 50 years ago rather than now. Well, firstly I disagree strongly with Danny about vaccines - in the whole pandemic then (IMO) they are far and away the most powerful tool that has diminished the effect of the virus. Um. You dont disagree with me, they are likely the most powerful tool we have against the virus. But nowhere near as effective as was hoped or needed. we partly agree they had a time limited usefulness, but not how long. I see no real world cases based evidence they reduced the final total of deaths or severe outcomes. Their claimed success is all based upon specious modelling. |
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Danny
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Posts: 10,388
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 15:47:58 GMT
There are reams of studies like this coming through. And they all miss the point. Unless interventions are sufficiently effective to get R below 1 and eradicate a disease, they are only slowing its inevitable spread through the whole community. Dont you see how a wave of covid only ever ends after it infects enough to create herd immunity?
Youre a clever chap Alec, why do you never address this problem with your case?
Just about everything we have done in isolation interventions has been pointless because it ultimately failed.
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Post by davwel on May 5, 2022 16:11:28 GMT
Today we had a door knock to urge us to go to vote, the first that I can remember for probably 10 years on an election day.
It was a man with a LibDem leaflet, and when i said we had done postal votes, he wanted to know whom for. When I said "well certainly not the Tories, he seemed pleased, but then pressed. What parties, and what order??
He was happy to have the LibDem lass on the list.
So it has been quite a vigorous campaign in the NE for a local-authority vote. But outdoor posters have been virtually given up - in a 70-mile drive through rural Kincardineshire yesterday we saw only one personal poster at the roadside - probably for an Independent, as he wasn`t a present councillor. But the large piebald horse that faces onto the Stonehaven by-pass, had been dressed up on each side facing oncoming traffic with "VOTE SNP"
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,388
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2022 16:22:31 GMT
BoE has hiked interest rates to 1% and has warned the Bank is walking a very tight line between tackling inflation and avoiding a recession. Things are looking bleak, surely Sunnak must introduce a windfall tax on the energy companies, especially after this mornings' Shell profits announcement. Just been listening to the justifications for the rise. Blanchfower on Tuesday said interest needed to stay low because of looming recession. Quickly followed by another pundit who said UK bank rate could do nothing except copy that of the US. The actual decision seems to mirror these two views exactly, with the bank admitting it has no room for discretion.
So Brexit means...locking our economy to the US instead.
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